Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is drawing renewed selling interest today after breaking below the key $3300 level. Traders are awaiting the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is viewed as a crucial indicator for assessing the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. These figures are expected to significantly influence the short-term trajectory of the U.S. dollar and, by extension, the price of gold.

Despite some optimism around a potential ceasefire between Israel and Iran and a broader risk-on sentiment diverting investors away from safe-haven assets, concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and prevailing bearish sentiment toward the U.S. dollar may help limit the downside for gold. Notably, data released yesterday showed that the U.S. economy contracted more than expected in the first quarter. This reinforces expectations of Fed rate cuts and keeps the dollar subdued near multi-year lows, indirectly supporting demand for gold as a defensive asset.

Earlier this week, Jerome Powell reiterated that the Federal Reserve is in a favorable position to delay interest rate cuts until it has better control over the inflationary impact of high tariffs. These remarks drew renewed criticism from President Donald Trump, who again called for lower rates and even hinted at the possibility of replacing Powell as early as September or October.

Such developments raise concerns about potential threats to the Fed's independence and may limit any positive reaction of the U.S. dollar to upcoming inflation data. As a result, gold prices are unlikely to experience a sharp and sustained decline.

From a technical perspective, today's intraday drop below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart could be viewed as a fresh trigger for sellers. Given that daily chart oscillators are gaining downside momentum, the precious metal could accelerate its decline toward the $3245 level, with further support seen at the horizontal level of $3210, the psychological $3200 mark, and potentially the $3175 level.

On the other hand, the $3324–3325 level is acting as immediate resistance, ahead of the $3350 level. Above that, further resistance lies near $3368–3370, which could limit additional gains. However, a sustained move above this range would allow XAU/USD to revisit the $3400 level. Continued buying interest beyond that point would invalidate the bearish outlook and shift momentum in favor of the bulls.

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The main events by the morning: June 30

Trump will appoint only a candidate willing to lower interest rates as the new head of the Federal Reserve System. He criticized the current chairman, Jerome Powell, calling him a «stubborn ass» and expressing hope for his resignation, although Powell's term expires in May 2026. Currently, the Fed is keeping the rate at 4.25-4.5%, but Trump insists on a significant reduction.

The United States lifted sanctions against Russia regarding the Paks-2 NPP project in Hungary. This was stated by the country's Foreign Minister Szijjarto. The construction of the station can be continued. Recall that in November 2024, the Biden administration imposed sanctions against Gazprombank, through which the project was financed. 

Canada has made concessions to the United States in the trade war. The country will abolish the digital services tax against American companies ahead of an expected deal with the United States. Negotiations on the trade agreement are scheduled to resume by July 21. 

All G7 countries are ready to make concessions to the Trump administration. They agreed on Saturday to exempt American companies from certain provisions of the existing global tax agreement. The G7 said the plan recognizes existing U.S. minimum tax laws and aims to increase the stability of the international tax system.

South Korea postponed the digital won pilot due to costs and lack of a commercialization plan. Instead, the Central Bank will focus on regulating stablecoins linked to won in order to reduce dependence on dollar tokens and preserve financial sovereignty. The eight largest banks are already working on the creation of such a stablecoin, and the issue will be controlled through licensed banks to protect the economy.

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The main events by the morning: July 1

The United States has threatened Japan with higher tariffs if it does not restore its rice purchases. In 2024, Japan purchased rice from the United States for $298 million, but in the first four months of 2025 — only for $114 million. Donald Trump said that Tokyo refused to purchase rice despite the shortage in the country. At the same time, official comments from the Japanese government have not yet been received.

Shares of Tesla Inc declined significantly amid the escalation of the conflict between Trump and Elon Musk. Trump has publicly criticized Musk, saying he benefits excessively from government subsidies, and called for a review of federal support provided to Tesla. According to over-the-counter trading on the Robinhood platform, Tesla quotes decreased by 6.4% to the level of $297.35.

Canada has started exporting LNG – Shell Canada Energy has shipped its first LNG cargo from the LNG Canada project to Asia. The Kitimat plant is the first major North American LNG project with access to the Pacific Ocean. LNG Canada is a joint venture that includes several companies, and its capacity is 14 million tons per year. The project is considered the largest private investment in the Canadian economy, with a construction cost of about 40 billion Canadian dollars (approximately $29.4 billion).

Trump has signed a memorandum toughening American policy towards Cuba. The document establishes a ban on tourist trips by US citizens to the island, confirms support for the current economic embargo, and also provides for active opposition to attempts to lift it at international forums, including the United Nations. Cuba's foreign minister reacted sharply to the measures, calling Washington's actions «criminal behavior.»

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The main events by the morning: July 2

The Iranian President has signed a decree suspending cooperation with the IAEA. According to the document, the agency's employees are temporarily banned from entering the country. The decision is justified by the need to ensure the safety of Iranian nuclear facilities and specialists in the field of nuclear energy. Thus, the control by the international agency has actually been suspended, which may pave the way for the unrestricted development of the Iranian nuclear program.

Germany and the UK are close to signing an extensive mutual assistance agreement. The text of the agreement is almost agreed upon, and the document can be signed before July 17. The treaty will confirm Berlin and London's commitment to the NATO alliance as the main pillar of their collective defense. 

Google faced a fine of $314 million in connection with the illegal use of Android user data. Consumers claimed that Google programmed Android phones to transmit data to Google servers when users were not connected to a Wi-Fi network. The corporation used this information «to promote its corporate interests.»

Azerbaijan continues to ruin relations with Russia. The country suspended negotiations with the Russian Federation on a number of major economic agreements and officially accused Russia of torture and violation of international law. Russian-language schools are also being closed in Azerbaijan. It is reported that this decision is aimed at strengthening the position of the Azerbaijani language as the main language of education and integrating all citizens into a single educational environment.

Hong Kong claims to be the first in the world in terms of IPO volume. In 2025, Hong Kong may surpass New York in terms of initial public offerings. Since the beginning of the year, IPOs on the local stock exchange have raised HK$107 billion, an increase of 701%. Up to 100 placements worth up to $28 billion are expected by the end of the year. Geopolitics, the activation of Chinese companies, and the flow of capital from the United States have made Hong Kong a popular destination again.
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