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LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: technical analysis

 

XAU/USD, D1

 

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed down. The RSI keeps testing its most recent resistance. The Composite is testing from above its longer MA.

 

XAU/USD, H4

 

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains just above its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is about to test from above its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

 

Key levels

 

Support levels: 1175.0 (local lows), 1160.0 (local lows), 1130.0 (December 2016 lows).

 

Resistance levels: 1213.0 (local highs), 1235.0 (local highs), 1241.0 (local highs).

 

Trading tips

 

The price has reached a strong support near 1180.0. There is a chance of an upward correction.

 

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1213.0 with targets at 1235.0, 1241.0 and stop-loss at 1201.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1160.0 with the target at 1130.0 and stop-loss at 1175.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. FTSE: technical analysis

 

FTSE, D1

 

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains just below its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is growing, having broken out its longer MA. The Composite has reached its critical overbought levels.

 

FTSE, H4

 

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading just below the upper line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains on the level with the SMA200 and above the EMA14, EMA65 and EMA130 that start turning up. The RSI is testing from above the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is breaking down its longer MA.

 

Key levels

 

Support levels: 7395.0 (local lows), 7325.0 (local lows), 7230.0 (local lows).

Resistance levels: 7515.0 (local highs), 7580.0 (November 2017 highs), 7615.0 (local highs).

 

Trading tips

 

The price is testing its strong resistance near 7515.0. There is a chance of a downward reverse, while its breakout would lead to a growth continuation.

Short positions can be opened from the level of 7395.0 with targets at 7325.0, 7230.0 and stop-loss at 7440.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 7515.0 with targets at 7580.0, 7615.0 and stop-loss at 7475.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: the prices rise

 

Current trend

 

Yesterday, oil prices increased significantly, renewing the highs since July 11.

 

The instrument is supported by the results of the meeting of OPEC and partner countries in Algeria. Contrary to market expectations, the cartel did not decide to increase oil production to compensate for the supply deficit that could follow after the introduction of US sanctions against Iran. Moreover, next year OPEC predicts a serious decline in oil prices, and in this case, production may fall again. Now the market is waiting for a new meeting of the cartel and partner countries, which will take place in Abu Dhabi in December. By this time, the scale of the supply deficit after leaving the Iranian market will become clear, and decisions can be made on its compensation.

 

On Tuesday, investors will focus on API Weekly Crude Oil Stock release. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change will be published on Wednesday.

 

Support and resistance

 

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing steadily. The price range is actively expanding, but not as fast as the "bullish" dynamic develops. MACD indicator is growing, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is directed upwards but is approaching its highs, which indicates that the instrument is overbought in the short term.

 

It is better to keep current long positions until the situation becomes clear.

 

Resistance levels: 72.49, 73.00, 73.74.

Support levels: 71.80, 71.00, 70.00, 69.07, 68.60.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 72.49 or 73.00 with the target at 73.74 or 74.30 and stop loss 72.30–72.00. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

 

Short positions can be opened after the downwards reversal of the price reverses near the current levels with the target at 70.00 and stop loss 72.50. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. NZD/USD: general review

 

Current trend

 

Today, the pair showed a moderate decline against the backdrop of the RBNZ decision on monetary policy.

 

The New Zealand regulator left the interest rate at the level of 1.75% as expected. At the same time, comments on monetary policy were extremely cautious, which disappointed investors. The RBNZ is interested in a low exchange rate of NZD in order to maintain demand for exports. This measure is aimed at mitigating the consequences of the US-China trade conflict.

 

Yesterday, the Fed announced the increase in the interest rate by 25 basis points, which was expected by the market. USD strengthening was limited as a number of financiers saw signs of overheating of the American economy. In this regard, investors are expecting today's speech of the Fed head Powell.

 

Today, a number of significant macroeconomic releases are expected, the publication of which will create volatility in the market. At 14:30 (GMT+2), data on GDP, as well as statistics on personal spending will be published in the US. The speech by the Fed Head Jerome Powell is due at 22:30 (GMT+2).

 

Support and resistance

 

On the H4 chart the instrument is trading in the lower part of Bollinger Bands. The indicator corrected horizontally and the price range reduced, which indicates further downward correction. MACD histogram is consolidating at the zero mark; the signal for entering the market is not formed. Stochastic is approaching the oversold area boundary; a buy signal can be formed during the day.

 

Resistance levels: 0.6653, 0.6671, 0.6701, 0.6727, 0.6753.

Support levels: 0.6633, 0.6600, 0.6562, 0.6534, 0.6505.

 

Trading tips

 

Short positions may be opened below 0.6630 with target at 0.6570 and stop loss at 0.6660.

Long positions may be opened above 0.6660 with target at 0.6700 and stop loss at 0.6640.

Implementation period: 1-2 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: general review

 

Current trend

 

Despite the strength of the US currency in late summer and early autumn, the Canadian dollar is dominating the pair for three months.

 

One should note a wide range of movement of the instrument, which indicates an ambiguous situation between two currencies. The “Canadian” received the main impulse for growth after the increase in the key rate in July, after which it only grew against all the main competitors. The policy of the Bank of Canada is aimed at further raising of the rates, which will help to keep inflation at the target level. The next meeting of the regulator is scheduled for the end of October. At the end of September, the pair moved upwards, but after reaching the key resistance level of 1.3060, which was the upper border of the descending range, sharply headed down due to the release of strong data on the economic growth of Canada in July. This impulse still controls the movement of the instrument: in less than two days, the pair has gone through almost 300 points.

 

At the end of the week, major releases will be published, namely, data on the US and Canadian labor markets, including Nonfarm Payrolls in the United States.

 

Support and resistance

 

In the short term, the current momentum may extend to 1.2745, the first strong support level. In the future, a correctional movement up to the levels of 1.2825, 1.2860, 1.1285 is expected. In the medium term, the downward trend will continue, as confirmed by all technical indicators: MACD shows a sharp decrease in the volume of long positions, Bollinger Bands reversed down; on W1 chart, the pair broke the lower border of the long-term uptrend and the Kijun Sen, Tenkan Sen lines of the Ichimoku indicator from the top down.

 

Support levels: 1.2780, 1.2745, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2585, 1.2555, 1.2530.

Resistance levels: 1.2825, 1.2860, 1.2885, 1.2910, 1.2975, 1.3000, 1.3060.

 

Trading tips

 

Deferred short positions may be opened from the levels of 1.2960, 1.2910, 1.2880 with the target at 1.2550 and stop loss at 1.3110.

 

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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: the Euro remains under pressure

 

Current trend

 

EUR showed a decline against USD on Monday noting a new local low since September 11. Development of the "bearish" trend on the instrument was promoted by heterogeneous macroeconomic statistics from the EU.

 

Markit Manufacturing PMI declined to 53.2 points in September from 53.3 a month earlier. The unemployment rate was better than expected and dropped to 8.1% in August from 8.2% in the previous month.

 

The risks of a political crisis in Italy continue to exert additional pressure on EUR. Previously, Italian politicians set the ratio of deficit to GDP for the next year at a much higher level than was proposed by the EU Ministry of Finance. The European Commission has already opposed these budget plans.

 

Support and resistance

 

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a gradual decrease. The price range expands, making way for new local lows for the "bears". MACD is declining keeping a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). In addition, the indicator is trying to consolidate below the zero mark. Stochastic, having reached its minimum levels, reversed into the horizontal plane, indicating oversold EUR in the ultra-short and/or short term.

 

Existing short positions should be kept until the situation clears up.

 

Resistance levels: 1.1615, 1.1657, 1.1700, 1.1732, 1.1801.

Support levels: 1.1561, 1.1522, 1.1500, 1.1473, 1.1446.

 

Trading tips

 

To open long positions, one can rely on the rebound from 1.1561 as from support with the subsequent breakout of 1.1615. Take profit — 1.1700 or 1.1732. Stop loss — 1.1570 or 1.1560.

A confident breakdown of 1.1561 may be a signal to further sales with target at 1.1500 or 1.1473, 1.1446. Stop loss — 1.1600 or 1.1615.

 

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: silver prices grow

 

Current trend

 

Yesterday, silver rose, updating the highs since August 28. The instrument was supported by rather harsh statements by the representative of the ruling party of Italy, Claudio Borghi, that most of the problems in the country could be solved by having their own currency. However, at the end of the trading session, the instrument lost most of its gains after the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who confirmed the previous policy to a gradual tightening of monetary policy.

 

A large block of statistics on business activity in Europe and the United States will be published today, as well as a number of speeches by Fed representatives, such as Lael Brainard and Loretta Mester. In addition, traders are waiting for ADP Employment Change release, since on Friday there will be a September report on the US labor market.

 

Support and resistance

 

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing moderately. The price range is expanding, but not as fast as the "bullish" trend develops. MACD is growing, maintaining a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line), and is trying to consolidate above the zero line. Stochastic reversed horizontally, reacting to the active instrument correction.

 

The current readings of the indicators do not contradict the further development of the “bullish” trend in the short and/or ultra-short term.

 

Resistance Levels: 14.79, 14.86, 15.00.

Support levels: 14.67, 14.60, 14.51, 14.41, 14.25.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 14.79 with the target at 15.00. Stop loss is 14.67. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the levels of 14.67 or 14.60 with the targets at 14.41–14.35. Stop loss is 14.70–14.80. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

 

Current trend

 

Oil quotes are rising and trading near the level of 86.20. Yesterday’s official EIA Crude Oil Stocks change release, which reflected a significant increase in US oil reserves, could not stop the growth of the prices. According to the report, the indicator rose by 7.975 million barrels for the week, while a more modest growth of 1.985 million barrels was expected. The oil market is supported by the potential risks of oil shortage in the global market due to US sanctions against the Iranian oil sector. Currently, there is a slight downward correction, but in general, the upward trend continues.

 

On Friday, investors will pay attention to Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count release, which decreased by 3 units to 863 last week.

 

Support and resistance

 

Technical indicators reflect the preservation of growth potential but do not exclude a correction in the short term. Bollinger bands are directed upwards. MACD volumes declined slightly in the positive zone, indicating the formation of a downward correction. Stochastic is pointed downwards. If sellers manage to lower the rate below 85.93 (Murrey [7/8]), then it may develop a correction to the area of ​​84.80, corresponding to the middle line of Bollinger bands. If buyers increase their activity and fix the rate above 86.55, then Brent may grow to 87.50 (Murrey [8/8]).

 

Resistance Levels: 86.60, 87.50, 88.00.

Support levels: 85.93, 84.37, 82.81.

 

Trading tips

 

Short positions can be opened below the level of 85.93 with the target around ​​84.80 and stop loss 86.10

Long positions can be opened above the level of 86.56 with the target at 87.50 and stop loss 86.30.

 

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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: transition to the lateral trend

 

Current trend

 

The euro continues to decline against the dollar within the broad long-term trend.

 

Over the past two weeks, the instrument has lost more than 350 points, breaking strong support levels of 1.1515, 1.1500 on its way. Now the pair has fixed within the lateral consolidation after a serious decline and in anticipation of the release of key releases on the US labor market.

 

Today, data on unemployment and Nonfarm Payrolls will be published. The unemployment will possibly decline, while at the same time, consensus forecasts indicate a reduction in the number of people employed in non-agricultural sectors of the economy.

 

Support and resistance

 

Most likely, one will see an increase in volatility after releases but there will be no significant change in the rate. In the medium term, the pair will descend to the levels of 1.1430, 1.1400, after which the rising wave will be formed with targets at 1.1600, 1.1665.

 

Technical indicators show the possibility of moving to broad lateral consolidation. MACD indicates a decrease in volumes on D1 chart, and the signal line is approaching zero one; Bollinger Bands on D1 and W1 charts are directed horizontally.

 

Support levels: 1.1500, 1.1430, 1.1400, 1.1370, 1.1300, 1.1250, 1.1210, 1.1170.

Resistance levels: 1.1515, 1.1550, 1.1575, 1.1600, 1.1665, 1.1690, 1.1715, 1.1730.

 

Trading tips

 

In this situation, short positions may be opened from the current level with the target at 1.1370; pending short positions may be opened from 1.1550, 1.1600, 1.1665 with the target at 1.1370 and stop loss at 1.1700, 1.1760.

 

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LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: technical analysis

 

XAU/USD, D1

 

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the middle MA of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is turning down, having failed its strong resistance. The Composite is testing from above its longer MA.

 

XAU/USD, H4

 

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains just below its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is falling, having broken down its longer MA. The Composite is approaching its strong support.

 

Key levels

 

Support levels: 1182.0 (local lows), 1171.0 (local lows), 1160.0 (August lows).

 

Resistance levels: 1213.0 (local highs), 1236.0 (December 2017 lows), 1241.0 (local highs).

 

Trading tips

 

The price keeps consolidating in a narrow sideways channel. A breakout of its upper border would allow the growth to continue.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1213.0 with targets at 1236.0, 1241.0 and stop-loss at 1196.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1182.0 with targets at 1171.0, 1160.0 and stop-loss at 1188.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: technical analysis

 

XAG/USD, D1

 

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the middle MA of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is falling, having formed a “double top” reverse pattern. The Composite is testing its longer MA, having formed a Bearish divergence with the price.

 

XAG/USD, H4

 

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains on the level with its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is growing towards its longer MA. The Composite is breaking out its longer MA.

 

Key levels

 

Support levels: 14.25 (local lows), 13.95 (local lows), 13.72 (January 2016 lows).

Resistance levels: 14.77 (local highs), 14.95 (local highs), 15.24 (local highs).

 

Trading tips

 

After a short-term correction the fall can continue.

Short positions can be opened from the level of 14.25 with targets at 13.95, 13.72 and stop-loss at 14.38. Validity – 3-5 days.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 14.95 with the target at 15.24 and stop-loss at 14.77. Validity – 3-5 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: gold prices are consolidating

 

Current trend

 

After a sharp decline at the beginning of the current week, gold prices are in the slight correction. The instrument is under pressure from a rising USD due to the restoration of treasury bonds yields’ growth. In addition, the market still expects a further increase in the Fed’s interest rates, which makes the purchase of gold, as an asset that does not generate interest income, unprofitable.

 

Tomorrow, investors expect the publication of statistics from the US consumer price dynamics. If the report meets the expectations of analysts, this will confirm market confidence in further tightening of monetary policy and will affect the instrument negatively.

 

Support and resistance

 

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moving horizontally. The price range remains quite narrow and does not attempt to widen, which corresponds to the real trading dynamics in the market. MACD indicator is falling, keeping a weak sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic is directed downwards, however, it is approaching its lows, which indicates the risks associated with oversold gold in the short and/or super short term.

 

It is better to keep current short positions until the situation is clear.

Resistance levels: 1191.71, 1195.28, 1200.00, 1208.14.

Support Levels: 1187.53, 1183.10, 1180.35, 1170.00.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1191.71 with the target at 1200.00. Stop loss is 1187.53. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1183.10 with the target at 1175.00 or 1170.00. Stop loss is 1187.53. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: the pair is growing

 

Current trend

 

Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair rose within the correction after the “bearish” start of the week, which led to a renewal of the lows since August 20. EUR was supported by USD correction due to a decline in the 10-year government bonds’ yield. Data on Industrial Production from France and Italy affected the instrument positively, too. Thus, August Industrial Production in France rose by 0.3% MoM, which is noticeably worse than the dynamics of last month (0.8% MoM), but still better than analysts' forecasts (+0.1% MoM). The corresponding index in Italy rose by 1.7% MoM against a decrease of 1.6% MoM last month. Experts expected the growth only by +0.8% MoM.

 

This morning, the pair continues to grow. Investors are waiting for new drivers: ECB meeting report and a block of US September macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation.

 

Support and resistance

 

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are actively falling. The price range narrows, reflecting a sharp change in the trade direction in the short term. MACD reversed upwards, forming a buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is growing, rapidly approaching its highs, which reflects that EUR will become overbought soon.

 

It is better to keep current long positions until the situation is clear.

 

Resistance Levels: 1.1580, 1.1615, 1.1657, 1.1700, 1.1732.

Support levels: 1.1547, 1.1522, 1.1500, 1.1460, 1.1430.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.1580 with the target at 1.1657 or 1.1700. Stop loss is 1.1540.

Short positions can be opened after the rebound from the level of 1.1580 and the breakdown of the level of 1.1547 with the targets at 1.1500 or 1.1475–1.1460. Stop loss 1.1580–1.1590.

 

Implementation period: 2–3 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

 

Current trend

 

The pair started the week with the growth and reached 1.1575. USD was under pressure after comments by the US president.

 

Donald Trump did not rule out the introduction of higher tariffs for Chinese goods if the PRC does not open its markets and does not enter into a fair agreement with the US. Washington has implemented three rounds of increasing duties, overlaying Chinese imports totaling USD 250 billion. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said that the US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping should meet in November at the G20 summit in Argentina, where trade talks between the parties are likely to continue.

 

The data on retail sales in the United States is due today. In September, the indicator may rise from 0.1% to 0.7%, which may cause the beginning of a decline in the instrument.

 

Support and resistance

 

The key level for the "bulls" is 1.1596, which is near the center line of Bollinger Bands. If the price consolidates above it, the growth to the levels of 1.1657 (Murrey [6/8]) and 1.1718 (Murrey [7/8]) may continue. A breakdown of the level of 1.1535 (Murrey [5/8]) will give the prospect of continuing the decline to 1.1474 (Murrey [4/8]) and 1.1413 (Murrey [3/8], the bottom line of Bollinger Bands). Technical indicators do not provide a clear signal. MACD histogram is reduced in the negative zone. Stochastic is directed upwards but is approaching the overbought area, which may lead to a downward reverse.

 

Resistance levels: 1.1596, 1.1657, 1.1718.

Support levels: 1.1535, 1.1474, 1.1413.

 

Trading tips

 

Short positions could be opened below 1.1535 with targets at 1.1474, 1.1413 and stop loss at 1.1580.

Long positions may be opened above 1.1600 with target at 1.1657, 1.1718 and stop loss at 1.1570.

 

Implementation period: 4-5 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: euro is restoring

 

Current trend

 

After a rapid downward trend, the EUR/USD pair entered a wide sideways consolidation. At the beginning of last week, the price dropped to a strong support level of 1.1430, where it reversed and began to strengthen. The main growth catalyst was the decline in demand for the US currency due to the publication of negative releases on inflation, the labor market, retail sales, and major US indices, while positive data on industrial production released in EU.

 

Today, US Industrial Production data will be published, and FOMC Meeting Minutes release is expected tomorrow. At the end of the week, special attention should be paid to EU inflation statistics.

 

Support and resistance

 

In the short term, a significantly overbought dollar reacts sharply to negative releases in major sectors of the economy and is falling. If the upward momentum of the instrument maintains, the pair may rise to the key resistance levels and local highs of the last five months at the levels of 1.1800, 1.1830, 1.1850.

 

On the daily chart, the technical indicators confirm a high probability of a reversal: the MACD volumes of short positions are decreasing, Bollinger bands are pointed sideways.

 

Resistance levels: 1.1600, 1.1665, 1.1690, 1.1730, 1.1775, 1.1800, 1.1830.

Support levels: 1.1550, 1.1515, 1.1500, 1.1430, 1.1400, 1.1370, 1.1300.

 

Trading tips

 

It is relevant to increase the volumes of long positions from the current level with the targets at 1.1800, 1.1830, 1.1850 and stop loss 1.1460.

 

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LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: general analysis

 

Current trend

 

Since the opening of the European session, the price of silver is growing but the downward trend is still relevant. A key support level is around 5/8 Murrey or 14.55. If the price consolidates below it, then the next target will be the level of 14.00.

 

The precious metals are under pressure of the Fed’s aggressive policy, which continues to raise interest rates and provides an increase in government bonds’ yield and makes these instruments attractive for investment. On the other hand, criticism of the regulators’ actions by Donald Trump may affect the global balance of power in the market, and as monetary policy changes, silver will increase again. Nevertheless, the US economy continues to grow, and many economists believe that there is no point in mitigating the policy. Thus, the published data on Industrial Production for September increased by +5.1%. Capacity Utilization decreased slightly to 78.1% against a forecast of 78.2%, which may be a short-term recession, which will reverse upwards again.

 

Support and resistance

 

Stochastic is at 22 points and reflects a possibility of a correction.

Resistance Levels: 14.74, 14.84.

Support levels: 14.55, 14.00.

 

Trading tips

 

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 14.55 with the target at 14.00 and the stop loss at 14.74.

 

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LiteForex analitics. USD/CHF: technical analysis

 

USD/CHF, D1

 

On the D1 chart, the pair is strengthening in the upper part of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed upwards, and the price range expanded, indicating further growth of the pair. MACD histogram is in the positive zone keeping a buy signal. Stochastic has entered the oversold area; a strong sell signal can be formed during 2-3 days.

 

USD/CHF, H4

 

On the H4 chart, the instrument is testing the upper boundary of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed horizontally and the price range expanded, which serves as a basis for continuing uptrend. MACD histogram is in positive zone, keeping the buy signal. Stochastic is about to leave the overbought area; a sell signal can be formed during the day.

 

Support and resistance

 

Resistance levels: 0.9959, 1.0003, 1.0035, 1.0060.

Support levels: 0.9916, 0.9883, 0.9841, 0.9804, 0.9760, 0.9706.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions may be opened from the current level with target at 1.0030 and stop loss at 0.9915. Implementation period: 1-3 days.

Short positions may be opened below 0.9910 with target at 0.9840 and stop loss at 0.9940. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: euro remains under pressure

 

Current trend

 

Yesterday, EUR fell significantly against USD, renewing its lows since October 10, due to the general strengthening of USD after strict Fed’s statements on further interest rate growth. USD was additionally supported by a sharp decline in the Chinese yuan, which continues today due to poor data on China's Q3 GDP.

 

EUR is under pressure of uncertain Brexit prospects and the tightening of the situation around the Italian budget for the next year. Yesterday, investors were focused on the summit of EU leaders in Brussels. There were no new proposals to solve the Irish border problem, and an agreement with the UK was not concluded. However, officials are developing a new mechanism to allow the UK to leave the EU as painlessly as possible. The idea is to extend the negotiations on the Irish border for a certain period after the end of the Brexit procedure itself.

 

Support and resistance

 

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moderately reduced. The price range is narrowing, letting the "bears" renew local lows. MACD is decreasing, keeping a moderate sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic falls, however, is in close proximity to zero values, which reflects that EUR is oversold in the super short term.

 

It is better to keep current short positions until the situation is clear.

Resistance levels: 1.1460, 1.1500, 1.1522, 1.1547.

Support levels: 1.1430, 1.1400, 1.1352.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions can be opened after a reversal near the current support levels and the breakout of 1.1460–1.1470 with the target of 1.1580 or 1.1600. Stop loss is 1.1430. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of 1.1430 with the target at 1.1352. Stop loss is 1.1460–1.1470. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: technical analysis

 

Brent Crude Oil, D1

 

On the daily chart, the instrument returned to growth after a correction, and it is now trading between the middle line and the bottom border of Bollinger bands. MACD histogram is in the positive region, its volumes are reduced, the signal line is directed downwards. Stochastic could not consolidate in the oversold zone and is currently in the neutral zone, moving horizontally.

 

Brent Crude Oil, H4

 

On the 4-hour chart, there is a correction of the downward movement to the middle line of Bollinger bands. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, keeping the signal to open short positions. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, the lines of the oscillator are directed downwards.

 

Key levels

 

Resistance levels: 81.69, 83.05, 84.47, 85.79, 87.21.

Support levels: 80.11, 78.88, 78.14, 77.20.

 

Trading tips

 

In the short term, it is better to open short positions may be opened from the current level with target at 79.00 and stop loss 79.70. Implementation period: 1–3 days.

 

Long positions can be opened from the level of 82.20 with the target at 83.00. Stop loss is 81.90. Implementation period: 3–5 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: technical analysis

 

XAU/USD, D1

 

On the daily chart, the instrument grows towards the upper border of Bollinger bands, and the price range is widened, which reflects a possibility of further upward movement development. MACD histogram is in the positive area, the signal line crosses the zero line and the body of the histogram upwards, forming a signal to open long positions. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, the signal line of the oscillator is directed downwards.

 

XAU/USD, H4

 

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument broke through the upper border of Bollinger bands, and the price is now growing. MACD histogram is in the positive area, its volumes are minimal, the indicator signal line moves horizontally. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, the lines of the oscillator are directed upwards.

 

Key levels

 

Resistance levels: 1235.54, 1245.43, 1257.05, 1267.00.

The levels of support: 1228.52, 1222.71, 1217.95, 1214.00, 1207.60, 1205.05, 1198.69, 1192.75, 1182.79.

 

Trading tips

 

In the short term, long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1245.00 and stop loss 1230.00.

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1214.00 with the target at 1207.50. Stop loss is 1218.00.

 

Implementation period: 1–3 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general review

 

Current trend

 

GBP remains under pressure after the EU summit in Brussels ended in vain.

 

This week, British Prime Minister Theresa May meets members of parliament to explain the future strategy. On Monday, she said that the agreement with the EU was 95% confirmed; the Irish border remains an issue. A new meeting will be held tonight with members of the Conservative Party, some of whom want to change the prime minister.

 

There is also no unity inside the British cabinet. According to Bloomberg, seven officials headed by Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt disagree with the proposal to leave the UK indefinitely within the EU customs rules. Deputy Prime Minister David Lidington warned that a “divorce” without a deal could lead to a serious reduction in transit through the Eurotunnel, and Transport Minister Chris Grayling even offered to charter ships to supply Britain by sea. Anyway, the issue should be resolved by the end of November, otherwise, there would not be enough time for its ratification.

 

Support and resistance

 

The price has fallen below 1.2940 (Murrey [4/8]) and may continue to decline to 1.2878 (Murrey [3/8]) and 1.2817 (Murrey [2/8]). The key for the "bulls" is the level of 1.3000 (Murrey [5/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands); after breaking it out, growth targets will be 1.3061 (Murrey [5/8]) and 1.3122 (Murrey [6/8]). However, the decline seems more probable, since Stochastic and Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone.

 

Support levels: 1.2878, 1.2817.

Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3061, 1.3122.

 

Trading tips

 

Sell positions may be opened from the level of 1.2920 with targets at 1.2878, 1.2817 and stop loss at 1.1580.

Buy positions may be opened above 1.3000 with targets at 1.3061, 1.3122 and stop loss at 1.2950.

 

Implementation period: 3-4 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

 

Current trend

 

This week, the pair was corrected to the level of 1.1352 (Murray [2/8]). On Wednesday, the European currency was under pressure from the results of the ECB meeting. The rates remained the same: the key one – at the level of 0.0%, and the deposit one – at the level of -0.4%. The rhetoric of the regulator has not changed. The accompanying statement noted that officials expect rates to increase no earlier than the end of the summer of 2019, and purchases of bonds in the amount of 15 billion euros will continue until December. During the press conference, ECB Head Mario Draghi noted that the increase in protectionism and the volatility of the financial market are important risks for the recovery of the Eurozone. Currently the European economy is weakening due to the uncertainty with Brexit, the new Italian budget and the US-China trade war. However, the ECB's policy helps support domestic demand and private consumption. Current regulatory measures are still needed to ensure a steady increase in inflation to a target level of 2.0%.

 

Today the data on US GDP for the third quarter will be published. The figure may decline from 4.2% to 3.3%, which may slow down the downward trend.

 

Support and resistance

 

The price is testing the level of 1.1352 (Murray [2/8]), the breakdown of which may cause a fall to the levels of 1.1291 (Murray [1/8]) and 1.1230 (Murray [0/8]). A breakout of the level of 1.1413 (Murray [3/8]) may cause an upward correction to the levels of 1.1474 (Murray [4/8], the middle line of the Bollinger bands) and 1.1535 (Murray [5/8]). However, the decline looks more likely, as the Bollinger and Stochastic are directed downwards, and the MACD histogram is increasing in the positive zone.

 

Support Levels: 1.1352, 1.1291, 1.1230.

Resistance Levels: 1.1413, 1.1474, 1.1535.

 

Trading tips

 

Short positions can be opened at 1.1340 with targets at 1.1291, 1.1230 and a stop loss at 1.1390.

Long positions will become relevant above the level of 1.1413 with targets at 1.1474, 1.1535 and a stop loss in the region of 1.1380.

 

Implementation of scenarios: 4-5 days.

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LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: technical analysis

 

XAU/USD, D1

 

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above the EMA14, EMA65 that start turning up, and on the level with the EMA130, which is horizontal. The RSI is testing its most recent resistance. The Composite is testing from above its longer MA, having formed a Bearish divergence with the price.

 

XAU/USD, H4

 

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains above the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed up. The RSI is falling, having broken down its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

 

Key levels

 

Support levels: 1212.0 (September highs), 1195.0 (local lows), 1182.0 (local lows).

Resistance levels: 1240.0 (local highs), 1246.0 (October 2016 lows), 1262.0 (local highs).

 

Trading tips

 

There is a chance of a downward correction, after which the growth will resume.

Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1212.0 with targets at 1240.0, 1246.0 and stop-loss at 1195.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1182.0 with the target at 1160.0 and stop-loss at 1195.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: technical analysis

 

XAG/USD, D1

 

On D1 chart, the instrument broke through the middle line of Bollinger Bands, and after that, the decline slowed down. MACD histogram is near the zero level, and its volume is minimal, the signal line is moving horizontally. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, and the lines of the oscillator are pointing downwards.

 

XAG/USD, H4

 

On the H4 chart, the instrument declines along the lower border of Bollinger Bands, the price range is widened, which indicates a possible continuation of the downtrend. MACD histogram is in negative zone with its volumes gradually growing; the signal line is crossing its body from above, keeping the signal for the opening of short orders. Stochastic crossed the border of the oversold zone from above, the oscillator lines are reversing up.

 

Key levels

 

Support levels: 14.39, 14.33, 14.22, 14.15, 14.05, 13.99, 13.92.

Resistance levels: 14.43, 14.49, 14.60, 14.70, 14.77, 14.82, 14.89.

 

Trading tips

 

According to technical indicators, short positions could be opened from the current level with the target at 14.22 and stop loss at 14.50.

Long positions may be opened from the level of 14.60 with the target at 14.82 and stop loss at 14.49.

Implementation period: 3-5 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: gold prices are going down

 

Current trend

 

Gold prices declined significantly on Tuesday, responding to the strengthening USD across the entire spectrum of the market and the decline in traders' interest in safe-haven assets due to a rise in stock markets.

 

Traders are focused on US-China trade conflict. According to Bloomberg, the US government is preparing to impose duties on the remaining Chinese imports, the amount of which is about USD 257B. The new duties will come into force if the November meeting of US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit ends without result. In this case, the growth of Chinese GDP next year may slow down to 1.5% (this year the figure is expected to be higher than 6.0%). However, the Chinese authorities are unlikely to allow such a decline in the economy, so they are already trying to level out the threat.

 

Support and resistance

 

On the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are gradually reversing horizontally. The price range keeps the flat dynamics remaining too narrow for the current activity at the market. MACD is declining keeping a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is declining but is rapidly approaching its minimum levels, which indicates the oversold instrument in the short and/or ultra-short term.

 

Existing short positions should be kept until the situation clears up.

 

Resistance levels: 1220.45, 1226.11, 1233.08, 1237.60, 1243.21.

Support levels: 1215.28, 1208.14, 1200.00, 1195.28.

 

Trading tips

 

To open long positions, one can rely on the rebound from 1215.28 as from support with the subsequent breakout of 1220.45. Take profit — 1237.60 or 1243.21. Stop loss — 1210.00.

A breakdown of 1215.28 may become a signal to further sales with target at 1208.14, 1205.00 or 1200.00. Stop loss — 1220.45.

 

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

 

Current trend

 

Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair fell to the lows ​​of the current year. USD strengthened against EUR due to ADP Nonfarm Employment Change release: in October, the value increased by 227K, exceeding the forecast by 189K. Its growth has a positive effect on the level of consumption, stimulating the economy and strengthening the currency.

 

In September, Retail Sales in Germany rose by only 0.1% instead of the expected 0.5%, while on an annualized basis the figure fell by 2.6%. However, EU inflation’s growth exceeded market expectations. In October, CPI increased from 2.1% to 2.2%, and Core Consumer Price Index grew from 0.9% to 1.1%.

 

US Manufacturing PMI release is due 15:45 (GMT+2) today. It is predicted that October indicator may fall for the second month in a row, from 59.8 to 59.0 points, which will affect USD negatively.

 

Support and resistance

 

On the 4-hour chart, the downward movement is in the correction towards the middle line of Bollinger bands. MACD histogram is in the negative area, keeping the signal to open short positions.

 

Resistance levels: 1.1375, 1.1410, 1.1430, 1.1460, 1.1490.

Support levels: 1.1355, 1.1330, 1.1300.

 

Trading tips

 

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1330 with the target at 1.1280 and stop loss 1.1360.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1375 with the target at 1.1430 and stop loss 1.1340.

 

Implementation period: 1–3 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: prices are falling

 

Current trend

 

Yesterday, oil prices dropped significantly and renewed the lows since April 10 due to traders' concerns about the growing imbalance of supply and demand in the market.

 

The weekly EIA data released in the middle of the week reflected the growth of US oil reserves by 3.217 million barrels, which is less than the forecast of 4.110 million. However, gasoline inventories fell by 3.161 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell by 4.954 million. The main pressure on the quotes had an increase in American oil production. In August, it grew to 11.246 million barrels per day, which made the country the world leader in the field.

 

On Friday, investors will focus on the block of US labor market data and Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count release.

 

Support and resistance

 

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are steadily declining. The price range is tending to wide, but not as fast as the “bearish” trend is developing in the short term. MACD is falling, keeping a strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic is directed downwards but is close to its lows, which indicates that the instrument can become is oversold in the short and/or ultra-short term.

 

It is better to keep current short positions until the situation is clear.

 

Resistance levels: 64.00, 65.00, 65.74, 67.00.

Support levels: 63.13, 62.67, 61.71, 61.00.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions can be opened after the rebound from 63.13 and the breakout of the level of 64.00 with the target at 67.00. Stop loss is 63.00 or 62.70. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

 

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the levels 63.13–63.00 with the target at 61.00. Stop loss is 64.00. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

 

Current trend

 

Yesterday, EUR strengthened against USD, despite macroeconomic data favorable to the American economy. October Markit Service PMI rose to 54.8 points, exceeding the forecast of 54.7 points. ISM Service PMI also outperformed the forecast, reaching 54.9 points against the forecast of 54.8. Composite Markit PMI fell by 1.3 points against the previous value but was better than expected, reaching 60.3 points.

 

Market participants are preparing for the upcoming Congressional midterm elections. If the Republicans fail to hold the House of Representatives, then President Trump’s position may deteriorate. Probably, representatives of the Democratic Party will impede the implementation of the economic plans of the current administration, as well as be able to raise the issue of impeachment. The investors are also focused on the trade conflict between the United States and China.

 

Today, traders are waiting for the EU Service PMI release. According to forecasts, in October the indicator will remain at the same level of 53.3 points.

 

Support and resistance

 

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is moving sideways within a corridor formed by the upper border and the middle line of Bollinger bands. MACD histogram is in the positive region, generating a signal to open long positions.

 

Resistance levels: 1.1430, 1.1460, 1.1490, 1.1515, 1.1550, 1.1600, 1.1630.

Support levels: 1.1410, 1.1395, 1.1380, 1.1355, 1.1330, 1.1300.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.1460 and stop loss 1.1380. Implementation period: 1–3 days.

 

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1350 with the target at 1.1300 and stop loss 1.1380. Implementation period: 3–5 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: technical analysis

 

XAG/USD, D1

 

On the D1 chart, the instrument corrected to the center line of Bollinger Bands; the pair shows lateral movement in the corridor formed by the boundaries of the indicator. MACD histogram is at the zero level, its volumes are minimal, and the signal line is moving horizontally. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, and the signal line of the oscillator is directed horizontally.

 

XAG/USD, H4

 

On the H4 chart, the instrument returned to growth after a downward correction, the pair is trading between the bottom and center lines of Bollinger Bands, the price range is expanded. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are minimal, and the signal line is directed downwards. Stochastic is on the border of the neutral zone with the oversold zone, the oscillator lines are reversing upwards.

 

Support and resistance

 

Resistance levels: 14.59, 14.69, 14.77, 14.81, 14.90.

Support levels: 14.45, 14.36, 14.22, 14.15, 14.05, 13.99, 13.92.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 14.90 and stop loss at 14.36.

Short positions may be opened from the level of 14.22 with target at 13.92. Stop loss — 14.36.

 

Implementation period: 3-5 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. FDAX: technical analysis

 

FDAX, D1

 

On the D1 chart, a descending movement correction is observed; the instrument is trading between the center and upper lines of Bollinger Bands, and the indicator borders are narrowing. MACD histogram is in the negative zone keeping a signal for opening short positions. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, and the signal line of the oscillator is directed downwards.

 

FDAX, H4

 

On the H4 chart, the uptrend is still in force; the instrument is trading near the upper line of Bollinger Bands; the indicator borders are widened, which may indicate a likely continuation of growth in the short term. MACD histogram is in the positive area forming a signal for opening long positions. Stochastic is on the border with the overbought zone, the signal line is directed upwards.

 

Support and resistance

 

Resistance levels: 11689.2, 11792.7, 11860.0.

Support levels: 11526.3, 11425.4, 11347.8, 11228.8, 11151.2, 11047.7.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions may be opened from the level of 11689.2 with target at 11860.0 and stop loss at 11600.0. Implementation period: 1-3 days.

Short positions may be opened from the level of 11526.3 with target at 11425.4. Stop loss — 11580.0. Implementation period: 3-5 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

 

Current trend

 

USD strengthened against EUR after the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision: as expected, the rate was kept at the level of 2.25%. In the accompanying statement, the regulator focused on the strength of the country's economy, confirming its intentions to gradually tighten the policy, which will inevitably lead to higher interest rates. In response, investors began to buy USD actively. In turn, EUR was under pressure of the decline in the trade surplus in Germany.

 

As for the macroeconomic events today, US October Producer Price Index will be released. It is predicted that the value of the indicator will remain unchanged at 0.2%.

 

Support and resistance

 

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading near the lower border of Bollinger bands, the price range is widened, indicating a possible continuation of the downward movement. MACD histogram is in the negative area, gradually increasing its volumes, the signal line is directed downwards.

 

Resistance levels: 1.1355, 1.1380, 1.1395, 1.1410, 1.1430, 1.1460, 1.1490.

Support Levels: 1.1330, 1.1300, 1.1268.

 

Trading tips

 

Short positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.1280 and stop loss 1.1360. Implementation period: 1–3 days.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1430 with the target at 1.1490 and stop loss 1.1400. Implementation period: 3–5 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. SX5E: technical analysis

 

SX5E, D1

 

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed down. The RSI is approaching its strong resistance region. The Composite is about to test from above its longer MA.

 

SX5E, H4

 

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains slightly below the SMA200, and on the level with the EMA14, EMA65 and EMA130 that turned horizontally. The RSI is testing from below its longer MA. The Composite is showing Bearish dynamics. 

 

Key levels

 

Support levels: 3205.0 (local lows), 3180.0 (local lows), 3100.0 (October lows).

Resistance levels: 3268.0 (local highs), 3315.0 (local highs), 3340.0 (June lows).

 

Trading tips

 

The price is consolidating below a strong resistance near 3268.0. There is a chance of a downward correction, while its breakout would lead to a growth continuation.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 3268.0 with targets at 3315.0, 3340.0 and stop-loss at 3235.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

Short positions can be opened from the level of 3180.0 with the target at 3100.0 and stop-loss at 3205.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general review

 

Current trend

 

Today, the rate of Brent fell below the level of 69.00, after which it was adjusted to the area of ​​69.40. The main factor putting pressure on oil is the high level of oil production in the USA. On the eve of Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih announced the need to reduce oil production among OPEC countries by 1 million barrels in 2019. According to him, such an initiative is supported by all members of OPEC. The statements of the Minister were able to provide only short-term support for the Brent rate and raised prices to the area of ​​71.83. However, the lack of specifics on this issue makes investors focus on the growth of oil production in the United States, Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation. On Wednesday, investors will pay attention to the publication of preliminary data from the API on the weekly change in oil reserves in US warehouses. If the report shows another growth of stocks, the rate of Brent will go down again.

 

Support and resistance

 

Technical indicators reflect a continuation of the downward trend, but do not exclude the development of an upward correction in the short term. MACD volumes are stable in the negative zone – the indicator keeps a sell signal. The Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, however, the price going beyond the lower limit may lead to a correction to the level of 70.70. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and is directed upwards, which also indicates a correction.

 

The continuation of the downward trend will be possible if the price consolidates below the level of 68.75. In this case, it will be possible to decline in the area of ​​67.18. The consolidation above the level of 70.70 will be a signal for growth to the area of ​​71.87.

 

Support levels: 68.75, 67.18, 65.62.

Resistance levels: 70.70, 71.87, 73.43.

 

Trading tips

 

Short positions can be opened below 68.75 with the target at 67.18 and stop loss at 69.20.

Long positions will become relevant above 70.70 with a target in the area of ​​71.87 and a stop loss at 70.40.

 

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LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: instrument consolidated

 

Current trend

 

Yesterday, USD rose slightly against CAD, failing to update Tuesday’s highs. Investors ignored the moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics on US CPI and responded with purchases only to the speech of the Fed’s Jerome Powell.

 

In Dallas, Powell noted that he was fully satisfied with the current state of the American economy. At the same time, the head of the regulator mentioned the slowdown in the global economy but stressed that this was not a significant source of risks at the moment. As for the further tightening of monetary policy, Powell said that the regulator may decide to raise rates at any of eight meetings a year.

 

On Thursday, November 15, investors are focused on a block of US October statistics on business activity and retail sales. Traders are interested in Fed’s Randal Quarles and Raphael Bostic speeches. Canada will publish the October ADP employment report.

 

Support and resistance

 

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing steadily. The price range widens from above, letting the “bulls” renew local highs. MACD reversed downwards, ready to generate a sell signal (the histogram should be located below the signal line). The dynamic of Stochastic is the same, it reverses downwards down near its highs.

 

At the end of the current trading week, a downward trend may develop in the short and/or ultra-short term.

 

Resistance levels: 1.3262, 1.3300, 1.3350.

Support levels: 1.3200, 1.3169, 1.3131, 1.3100.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.3262 with the target at 1.3350. Stop loss is 1.3230–1.3220. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.3200 or 1.3169 with the target at 1.3100 or 1.3047. Stop loss is 1.3210–1.3240. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: euro is growing moderately

 

Current trend

 

Yesterday, EUR rose slightly against USD and renewed its highs since November 9. The investors are focused on Brexit negotiations.

 

On Wednesday, traders seriously hoped that the deal would be concluded and ratified, and EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom expressed confidence that the draft treaty would be supported by all EU countries. However, on Thursday, four ministers immediately left the British cabinet to protest the terms of the agreement. It makes the ratification of the treaty by the British Parliament doubtful, as the Conservative Party doesn’t have a majority.

 

On Friday, October data on EU inflation is expected. According to forecasts, Core Consumer Price Index will remain at 1.1%, and CPI will stay at 2.2%. In addition, market participants are waiting for the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi, who can provide information on the future plans of the regulator.

 

Support and resistance

 

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands reversed horizontally. The price range is virtually unchanged but remains quite spacious for the current activity level. MACD is growing, keeping a weak buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is directed upwards but is rapidly approaching its highs, which indicates the risks associated with the overbought euro in the super-short term.

 

At the moment, the indications of technical indicators do not contradict the further development of corrective growth.

 

Resistance levels: 1.1361, 1.1400, 1.1431, 1.1460, 1.1500.

Support levels: 1.1300, 1.1266, 1.1231, 1.1207.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of 1.1361 with the targets at 1.1431–1.1460. Stop loss is 1.1320.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.1300 with the target at 1.1231 or 1.1207. Stop loss is 1.1340.

Implementation period: 2–3 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: technical analysis

 

USD/JPY, D1

 

On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains above the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed up. The RSI is approaching its strong support region. The Composite is about to test its strong support as well.

 

USD/JPY, H4

 

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading on the lower line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is trying to leave the oversold zone. The Composite begins forming a Bullish divergence with the price.

 

Key levels

 

Support levels: 112.60 (local lows), 111.90 (local lows), 111.40 (October lows).

Resistance levels: 112.90 (local highs), 113.40 (local highs), 113.60 (local highs).

 

Trading tips

 

There is a chance of an upward correction, while a breakdown of local lows near 112.60 would allow the fall to continue.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 113.00 with targets at 113.40, 113.60 and stop-loss at 112.75. Validity – 3-5 days.

Short positions can be opened from the level of 112.60 with targets at 111.90, 111.40 and stop-loss at 112.90. Validity – 3-5 days.

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LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: the price can decrease

 

Current trend

 

After a significant decline from the beginning of April to mid-August, the gold price is trading within an upward correction. During the autumn months, it has recovered by more than 80 points. However, in the long term, the trend stays downwards. At the end of October, the instrument reached the July maximum at 1244.00, failed to consolidate on it and began to decline. The decrease developed to the lower border of the upward correctional channel, after which the rate began to grow again.

 

Now the precious metal is trading at the level of 1225.00. The main strengthening catalyst is the change in trading sentiment: USD index tends to fall, reflecting a decrease in demand for currency.

This week, special attention should be paid to data on the labor market and major US indices.

 

Support and resistance

 

Technically, the pair is trading within a medium-term upward trend. In the medium term, the price may reverse into a sideways consolidation movement. In the long term, it is better to increase the volumes of short positions and wait for a decline to recent local lows, and then for a fall to a minimum of the end of 2016 at the level of 1122.00.

 

On the daily chart, technical indicators give an ambiguous signal: the volume of long MACD positions is decreasing but the signal line is at the zero mark, and Bollinger bands are lined up horizontally.

 

Resistance levels: 1225.00, 1237.00, 1244.00, 1255.50, 1266.00.

Support levels: 1214.00, 1208.30, 1196.00, 1183.40, 1180.00, 1160.00.

 

Trading tips

 

It is relevant to increase the volumes of short positions from the current level and open pending orders from the levels of 1244.00, 1255.50 with the targets at 1208.30, 1180.00 and stop loss 1269.00.

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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: the Euro returned to declining

 

Current trend

 

EUR showed a decline against USD on Tuesday, retreating from updated local highs of November 7.

 

In the absence of significant economic releases, investors are focused on the UK, where Prime Minister Theresa May is trying to conduct a draft agreement with the EU through parliament. May's appeal for support to large British businesses was generally positively appreciated by the market, but the position of the Prime Minister remains difficult. The Conservative Party does not have a majority in Parliament, and the deputies from the allied Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland expressed dissatisfaction with the terms of the deal and do not want to support it. In the EU, there are also people dissatisfied with the agreement: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said that he insists on direct negotiations over Gibraltar, a territory disputed by Madrid.

 

Support and resistance

 

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is slightly narrowed from above, being spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD indicator is trying to reverse into the descending plane, keeping the buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic has reversed downwards near its maximum levels, indicating a sufficient potential for further development of the downtrend in the short and/or ultra-short term.

 

Sales could be considered in the nearest future.

 

Resistance levels: 1.1400, 1.1431, 1.1460, 1.1500.

Support levels: 1.1357, 1.1334, 1.1300, 1.1266.

 

Trading tips

 

To open long positions, one can rely on the rebound from the level of 1.1357 with the subsequent breakout of 1.1400. Take profit — 1.1460 or 1.1500. Stop loss — 1.1370. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

The breakdown of 1.1357 may serve as a signal to continue sales with the target at 1.1300. Stop loss — 1.1380 or 1.1390. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

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LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: the instrument trades ambiguously

 

Current trend

 

Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair fell slightly, continuing the development of the “bearish” impulse formed the day before.

 

British investors are focused on Brexit. Prime Minister Theresa May met with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker to discuss preparations for the EU Brexit summit on Sunday. At the summit, the parties will work out the dissatisfaction of a part of the EU members with significant preferences to British fishing companies, as well as Spain’s complaints about Gibraltar.

 

GBP is under pressure of October UK government borrowing data, which increased significantly by 7.96B pounds.

 

However, the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, who supported May’s Brexit proposals, affected GBP positively. Carney stressed the importance of a long transition period because, without it, the British economy could face significant difficulties.

 

Support and resistance

 

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are falling. The price range is actively widening from below, letting the “bears” renew local lows. MACD is falling, keeping a moderate sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic is directed downwards but is close to its lows, which reflects that GBP can become oversold soon.

 

It is better to keep current short positions until the situation is clarified.

 

Resistance levels: 1.2826, 1.2882, 1.2920, 1.2950.

Support levels: 1.2763, 1.2722, 1.2693.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions can be opened after the rebound from the level of 1.2763 and the breakout of the level of 1.2826 with the targets at 1.2920–1.2950. Stop loss is 1.2790–1.2780. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

 

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.2763 with the targets at 1.2693–1.2675. Stop loss is 1.2800. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: technical analysis

 

USD/CAD, D1

 

On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is testing from above its longer MA. The Composite is falling, having formed a Bearish divergence with the price.

 

USD/CAD, H4

 

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains above the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed up. The RSI is about to test from below its longer MA. The Composite is testing its longer MA as well.

 

Key levels

 

Support levels: 1.3170 (local lows), 1.3085 (local lows), 1.3050 (local lows).

Resistance levels: 1.3230 (local highs), 1.3315 (local highs), 1.3385 (June highs).

 

Trading tips

 

The price is testing its medium-term ascending trendline. Its breakdown would lead to a fall continuation.

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3170 with targets at 1.3085, 1.3050 and stop-loss at 1.3220. Validity – 3-5 days.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.3230 with targets at 1.3315, 1.3385 and stop-loss at 1.3195. Validity – 3-5 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: gold is trading in both directions

 

Current trend

 

Gold prices showed a decline last Friday, departing from local highs updated during the last week. The reason for the emergence of "bearish" dynamics was the growth of the US currency, as well as significantly increased investor interest in risk amid a correction in European stock markets.

 

American investors are focused on preparations for the meeting of US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Argentina. During the month, investors have been receiving a lot of contradictory information about this. The day before, Trump encouraged investors again, saying that China is ready to make a deal. Vice Minister of Commerce of PRC Wang Shouwen, in turn, noted that the American and Chinese trade representatives are in close contact. At the moment, the market is set to a positive outcome of the negotiations.

 

Support and resistance

 

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a gradual decrease. The price range is narrowing, reflecting ambiguous nature of trading in recent weeks. MACD is growing, keeping a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, in contrast, maintains a rather active “bearish” trend, signaling in favor of the development of a downward correction of the instrument.

 

The indicators remain contradictory, so it is necessary to wait for clarification of trade signals.

 

Resistance levels: 1226.11, 1229.84, 1233.08, 1237.16.

Support levels: 1220.12, 1216.62, 1211.80, 1208.14.

 

Trading tips

 

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1226.11. Take profit — 1233.08 or 1237.16. Stop loss — 1222.00.

 

A breakdown of 1220.12 may become a signal for returning to sales with target at 1211.80 or 1208.14. Stop loss — 1224.00.

 

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: the pound remains under pressure

 

Current trend

 

Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair continued the development of the “bearish” impulse formed at the end of last week.

 

The endorsement of the text of the Brexit agreement by the EU members at the last summit reassured the market. However, now the approval of the treaty by the British Parliament is necessary, where a serious opposition present even among the Conservative Party. The new Brexit secretary Stephen Barclay noted that the support for the current deal in the House of Commons is insufficient. In his opinion, it is necessary to convince the deputies that withdrawing from the EU without a deal is not in the interests of voters. At the moment, the Conservative Party controls 315 seats in the House of Commons out of 650, not having a majority. In addition, the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland (DUP), which was in a coalition with the Conservatives earlier, is going to oppose the deal. Voting on the transaction should take place in the first half of December.

 

Support and resistance

 

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands moderately fell. The price range actively narrows, reflecting the ambiguous trade mood in recent weeks. MACD grow, keeping a weak buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic reversed downwards again after a short growth.

 

Current indicators’ readings are ambiguous. However, an upward correctional impulse has not formed.

 

Resistance levels: 1.2826, 1.2882, 1.2925, 1.2950, ​​1.3000.

Support levels: 1.2793, 1.2763, 1.2722, 1.2693.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of 1.2882 with the target at 1.3000. Stop loss is 1.2840. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of 1.2793 with the target at 1.2722 or 1.2693. Stop loss is 1.2835. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: gold prices are going down

 

Current trend

 

Gold prices declined on Tuesday, updating local lows of November 15.

 

Investors are still focused on the US-Chinese trade conflict. In anticipation of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires starting on Friday, US President Donald Trump gave an interview to The Wall Street Journal; he said he is ready to impose increased tariffs on remaining Chinese imports totaling USD 267 billion if negotiations with Xi Jinping fail. The rate may be 10% or 25% but is yet to be confirmed. These comments may be an element of pressure to persuade the PRC to sign a treaty with the US. Trump also spoke about the Brexit deal, the text of which was approved by EU representatives on Sunday. According to Trump, the deal is excellent for the EU; however, accepting it, the UK will not be able to conduct bilateral trade with the US.

 

Support and resistance

 

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range consolidated, but remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is going down keeping a sell signal (located under the signal line). Besides, the indicator is trying to consolidate below the zero level. Stochastic keeps downward direction but is approaching minimum levels, which reflects the oversold instrument in the ultra-short term.

 

Existing short positions should be kept until the situation clears up.

 

Resistance levels: 1216.62, 1220.12, 1226.11, 1229.84.

Support levels: 1211.80, 1208.14, 1200.00, 1196.10.

 

Trading tips

 

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1216.62. Take profit — 1226.11 or 1229.84. Stop loss — 1212.00.

The rebound from 1216.62 with the subsequent breakdown of 1211.80 can become a signal to return to sales with target at 1205.00 or 1200.00. Stop loss — 1216.62.

 

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. NZD/USD: general analysis

 

Current trend

 

Yesterday the pair strengthened by 65 points after the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

 

In general, the speech was neutral. USD was under pressure due to the mentioned necessity of balancing the current monetary policy in order to avoid "overheating" of the economy. Nevertheless, the Fed chief continues to insist on a gradual increase in the key rate, since US macroeconomic indicators of the labor market and inflation corresponded with a policy of tightening. Meanwhile, the New Zealand regulator has published negative data on the business optimism index. According to the report, business investment in the country is at a low level, which is a negative signal when assessing the state of the economy as a whole.

 

Today at 15:30 (GMT+2), the US labor market and inflation data will be published. The release of the Fed’s Meeting Minutes is due at 21:00 (GMT+2). Both news releases can create strong market volatility. Most investors expect USD to grow.

 

Support and resistance

 

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument was corrected to the upper border of Bollinger bands, which is the key resistance level. The indicator is directed sideways, and the price range has expanded significantly, which is the basis for further growth. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes continue to grow, keeping a buy signal. Stochastic reversed downwards at the border of the overbought area.

 

Resistance levels: 0.6855, 0.6907, 0.6956, 0.7022.

Support levels: 0.6822, 0.6790, 0.6737, 0.6701, 0.6663, 0.6629.

 

Trading tips

 

Short positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 0.6765 and stop loss 0.6900.

Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.6905 with the target at 0.6960 and stop loss 0.6885.

Implementation period: 1–2 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

 

Current trend

 

EUR strengthened against USD on Thursday amid a refutation regarding the introduction of US tariffs on cars from the EU before Christmas made by the European Commission.

 

The single currency was also supported by positive labor market statistics from Germany. Macroeconomic data from the US was mixed and did not support the USD. Private spending increased to 0.6% in October from 0.2% a month earlier. Personal income also showed a positive trend and amounted to 0.5% in October from 0.2% a month earlier. The FOMC protocol published last night confirmed the Fed’s intention to raise the key rate in December. At the same time, the regulator believes that in the future it is necessary to carefully approach the issue of tightening monetary policy after the December round of rate hikes. Investors reacted to these statements by selling the US currency.

 

Today, the publication of the consumer price index in the Eurozone (12:00 GMT+3) may influence the pair; high volatility is expected in the market.

 

Support and resistance

 

On the H4 chart, there is an upward correction, the instrument is traded near the upper border of Bollinger Bands, the price range is expanded, which indicates a possible continuation of the upward movement. MACD histogram is in the positive area, gradually increasing volumes, the signal line crosses the zero mark and the body of the histogram from the bottom up, which is a signal to open long positions.

 

Support levels: 1.1362, 1.1348, 1.1330, 1.1300, 1.1265.

Resistance levels: 1.1400, 1.1415, 1.1433, 1.1460, 1.1491.

 

Trading tips

 

Long position may be opened from 1.1400 with the target at 1.1460 and stop loss at 1.1362.

Short positions may be opened from 1.1330 with the target at 1.1265 and stop loss at 1.1362.

Implementation period: 1-3 days.

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LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: price restores

 

Current trend

 

Today, during the Asian session, oil prices are steadily growing, opened the trading of the new week with a significant upward gap. Investors are reacting to the results of the G20 summit held at the weekend, at which a key agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia to lower production volumes was reached. December 6, a meeting of OPEC+ in Vienna will be held, to which market participants will come up with well-formed expectations for next year.

 

Also noteworthy is the Friday report from Baker Hughes, which reflected the growth in the number of active oil platforms from 885 to 887 units.

 

Today, investors are waiting for the publication of a block of macroeconomic statistics on US business activity. It is predicted that in November, ISM Manufacturing PMI may increase from 57.7 to 57.8 points, and ISM Manufacturing Prices over the same period may drop from 71.6 to 68.3 points.

 

Support and resistance

 

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are reversing horizontally. The price range narrows, reflecting a sharp change in direction of trading in the short term. MACD indicator is growing, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is growing almost vertically, rapidly approaching its highs, which indicates that the instrument may become overbought soon.

 

The development of the "bullish" trend in the short and/or ultra-short term is possible.

 

Resistance levels: 54.72, 55.64, 57.00, 58.64.

Support levels: 52.38, 51.32, 50.00, 49.00, 48.09.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 54.72 with the targets at 58.64 or 60.00. Stop loss is 53.40.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the levels of 52.38 or 51.32 with the target at 48.09. Stop loss is 52.40 or 53.50.

 

Implementation period: 2–3 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

 

Current trend

 

Brent quotes are moderately growing and reached the area of ​​62.50 in anticipation of the outcome of the OPEC representatives meeting. On Wednesday in Vienna, a meeting of the OPEC+ Monitoring Committee will be held to assess the implementation of the limitation of the oil production agreement. On Thursday, a meeting of OPEC ministers will be held, at which, as predicted, a new agreement on reducing the level of production of "black gold" will be announced. Also, the price is supported by news about the agreement reached between the Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia during the G20 summit to extend the agreement on oil production reducing.

 

Today, investors will pay attention to the preliminary data from the API about the weekly change in US oil reserves at 23:30 (GMT+2). If the rate rises, the instrument will be affected negatively in the short term. Official data from the US Department of Energy will be published tomorrow.

 

Support and resistance

 

Technical indicators reflex the development of growth potential. Bollinger bands and Stochastic lines are directed upwards. MACD volumes are actively growing in the positive zone, forming a buy signal.

 

Resistance levels: 62.50, 64.06, 65.62.

Support levels: 60.93, 59.37, 57.18.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions can be opened above the level of 62.50 with the targets near 64.06 and stop loss 62.00.

Short positions can be opened below the level of 60.93 with the targets around ​​59.37 and stop loss 61.40

 

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LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: USD strengthens

 

Current trend

 

USD showed strong growth against CAD on December 4, recovering from the "bearish" dynamics of the beginning of the week.

 

The euphoria of the market after a meeting of the US President Donald Trump and PRC Chairman Xi Jinping begins to calm down. The trade conflict was not resolved, its escalation was only postponed for three months. Trump’s economic adviser Larry Kudlow is counting on a quick breakthrough, primarily on the issue of protecting American intellectual property in the PRC; however, the market does not believe these comments.

 

Published yesterday, data on the ISM Manufacturing PMI was above market expectations. In November, it rose from 57.7 to 59.3 points, which provided short-term support to USD.

 

Today, investors are focused on the decision of the Bank of Canada on the interest rate and the accompanying press conference. The rate is expected to remain unchanged at the level of 1.75%.

 

Support and resistance

 

The Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading last days. MACD indicator is growing trying to form a new buy signal (the histogram has to consolidate above the signal line). Stochastic is gradually reversing up, located in the middle of its area. The showings of the indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bullish" trend in the short and/or ultra-short term.

 

Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3317, 1.3358.

Support levels: 1.3264, 1.3241, 1.3200, 1.3158.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions may be opened after breaking out 1.3300 with take profit at 1.3358 and stop loss at 1.3270. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

After the rebound from 1.3300 and a breakdown of 1.3264, corrective sales may start with the target at 1.3200 or 1.3158. Stop loss – 1.3300. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: the upward momentum maintains

 

Current trend

 

Since the beginning of this week, the USD/CAD pair has grown by more than 250 points due to a decrease in demand for CAD and a moderate growth of USD. The price easily broke the local maximum of the end of June at 1.3390, which was a strong resistance level. CAD is under pressure of a rapid decline in oil prices and a drop in the activity of the energy sector. The US dollar, in turn, gradually strengthens its position.

 

Today and tomorrow, in the United States a number of key releases that may affect the pair, will be released: labor market data, including Nonfarm Payrolls, statistics on Production Orders, as well as key indices.

 

Support and resistance

 

In the short term, the upward momentum will raise the instrument to key resistance levels. If the US releases on the labor market are positive, the price may grow significantly. Now, the pair has almost reached the next serious resistance at the level of 1.3450. From this level, the pair may drop and move under the influence of trading sentiment and macroeconomic statistics. The long-term and medium-term trends remain upward, which means it is worth opening long positions, perhaps just after the downward correction.

 

Technical indicators confirm the growth forecast, the volumes of long MACD positions are growing, Bollinger bands are directed upwards.

 

The Resistance levels are 1.3450, 1.3530, 1.3570, 1.3595, 1.3610, 1.3650.

Support levels: 1.3390, 1.3375, 1.3355, 1.3290, 1.3225, 1.3170.

 

Trading tips

 

It is relevant to open pending long positions from the levels of 1.3375, 1.3355, 1.3290 with the target at 1.3530 and stop loss 1.3240.

 

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LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general review

 

Current trend

 

Last week, Brent crude oil was traded in both directions. The long-term pressure on the market persists, but the instrument has kept from falling below the important psychological level of 60.00.

 

On Friday, quotes strengthened amid OPEC+ agreements to reduce total production by 1.2 million barrels per day. In addition, crude oil stocks in the US domestic market have declined for the first time in 11 weeks. However, on Friday at 21:00 (GMT+2), Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms had a significant but short-term pressure on the instrument, reflecting growth in drilling activity in the United States. Most experts say that the volume of OPEC reduction is insufficient to return the market to a deficit.

 

Tomorrow (at 23:30 GMT+2), API will publish data on the weekly change in reserves of commercial oil in the US.

 

Support and resistance

 

On H4 chart, the instrument is trying to consolidate below the middle line of Bollinger Bands, which is the key support level. The indicator is directed horizontally, and the price range expands, indicating a further fall in the instrument. MACD histogram is correcting in the neutral zone, the signal for entering the market is not formed. Stochastic does not give a clear signal to open positions.

 

Support levels: 60.90, 58.95, 57.50.

Resistance levels: 62.88, 65.04, 66.85, 68.39, 70.50.

 

Trading tips

 

Short positions may be opened below the level of 60.50 with the target at 58.80 and stop loss at 61.35.

Long positions may be opened above the level of 61.35 with the target at 62.90 and stop loss at 60.80.

Implementation period: 1-3 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. YM: general review

 

Current trend

 

The Dow Jones index is slightly recovering and trading above support level of 24218.8 (Murrey [2/8]). Demand in the markets was caused by the news that the Vice-Premier of China and a representative of the US Treasury discussed the next stage of negotiations.

 

The US dollar is strengthening against the backdrop of political risks that are associated with Brexit. On the other hand, economists at Goldman Sachs, a major investment bank, predict that the Fed may delay the further tightening of monetary policy next year, which in turn will support the stock market and reduce USD exchange rate. However, this is only a preliminary assessment and the regulator will make its decisions based on economic data.

 

The second important event for the market is the political crisis in the United States. It became known that the former lawyer of Donald Trump may be sentenced to prison because of tax evasion and various frauds during the election campaign. As a result, Democrats can begin hearings about the impeachment of the current US president.

 

Today, data on producer price index in the United States will be published.

 

Support and resistance

 

Stochastic is at the level of 80 points and indicates the possible correction.

Resistance levels: 24609.4, 24722.0.

Support levels: 24218.8, 23982.0.

 

Trading tips

 

Short positions may be opened from the resistance level of 24609.4 with take-profit at 24218.8 and stop loss at 24722.0.

 

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LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: technical analysis

 

XAG/USD, D1

 

On the D1 chart, the instrument is trading above the upper line of Bollinger Bands; the price range is widened, which indicates a possible continuation of the uptrend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and has minimum volume, the signal line is about to cross the zero line from below, which will be a signal to open long positions. Stochastic is in the neutral area, and the lines of the oscillator are directed upwards.

 

XAG/USD, H4

 

On H4 chart the instrument is growing along the upper border of Bollinger Bands, and the price range is widened. MACD histogram is in the positive area keeping a signal for opening buy orders. Stochastic is on the border of the neutral zone with the overbought zone; the oscillator lines are directed horizontally.

 

Key levels

 

Resistance levels: 14.76, 14.90, 15.09, 15.23.

Support levels: 14.65, 14.59, 14.44, 14.37, 14.31, 14.22, 14.16, 14.08, 14.03, 13.93, 13.88.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 14.90, 15.09 and stop loss at 14.65.

Short positions may be opened from the level of 14.59 with targets at 14.44, 14.37, 14.31. Stop loss – 14.65.

Implementation time: 1-3 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: gold prices are going down

 

Current trend

 

Gold prices declined slightly on Thursday, updating the record lows of December 7.

 

Macroeconomic statistics from the US published on Thursday failed to provide significant support to USD, but investors were focused on the further development of US-China trade relations. Anyway, the published figure for the number of initial jobless claims for the week on December 7 dropped sharply from 233K to 206K, which was better than expected 226K.

 

Today, traders are focused on the US retail sales data. Analysts expect a sharp slowdown in November from +0.8% MoM to +0.1% MoM, which could have a negative impact on USD. There will also be published the November statistics on industrial production and preliminary December data on business activity.

 

Support and resistance

 

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics. MACD is declining keeping a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is declining more actively, but is rapidly approaching its minimum levels, which indicates the risks associated with the oversold instrument.

 

Technical indicators do not contradict further development of the "bearish" trend in the short term.

 

Resistance levels: 1247.00, 1250.66, 1255.00.

Support levels: 1240.00, 1237.16, 1233.08, 1229.84.

 

Trading tips

 

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1247.00. Take profit — 1255.00. Stop loss — 1244.00. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

A breakdown of 1240.00 or 1237.16 may be a signal to further sales with target at 1229.84 or 1226.11. Stop loss — 1243.00 or 1245.00. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

 

Current trend

 

Today, the pair is correcting upwards, aiming at the level of 1.1352 (Murrey [2/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands).

 

The euro is strengthening, despite the weak data on inflation in the Eurozone. In November, the basic consumer price index remained at 1.0%, and the general CPI dropped from 2.0% to 1.9%, having fallen below the target level for the first time since May. Investors are more concerned about the upcoming Fed meeting. The rate is expected to be raised once again, this time from 2.25% to 2.50%; but in the future, the rate of monetary tightening may be slowed down. During the month, hints of this were made by several members of the regulator, including its chairman Jerome Powell. Currently, the market expects another three rate hikes next year, and any data on the reduction of their number could put pressure on USD.

 

Support and resistance

 

The level of 1.1352 (in the midline of Bollinger Bands) is seen as the key one for the "bulls". Its breakout will give the prospect of further growth to 1.1413 (Murrey [3/8], the upper line of Bollinger Bands) and 1.1474 (Murrey [4/8]). Otherwise, the decline will resume to the levels of 1.1291 (Murrey [1/8]) and 1.1230 (Murrey [0/8]).

 

Technical indicators do not provide a clear signal: MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone and Stochastic is directed horizontally.

 

Support levels: 1.1291, 1.1230, 1.1200.

Resistance levels: 1.1352, 1.1413, 1.1474.

 

Trading tips

 

Short positions may be opened after the reversal near 1.1352 with targets at 1.1291, 1.1230 and stop loss at 1.1380.

Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.1370 with targets at 1.1413, 1.1474 and stop loss at 1.1330.

Implementation period: 4-5 days.

 

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LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: the pair is growing

 

Current trend

 

For two and a half months, the USD/CAD pair has been trading within an upward channel due to the ambiguous Canadian statistics and the growing demand for the American currency. In early December, the price fell to the key support level of 1.3170, failed to overcome it and sharply rose to a local maximum of 1.3450. It was followed by a correction, which was replaced by the current upward impulse with testing of new local highs.

 

This week, strong data on the US construction sector were published, but traders are waiting for new statistics that can affect the instrument. Today, special attention should be paid to inflation level data in Canada and the Fed's decision on monetary policy. In the second half of the week, GDP and Retail Sales will be released in Canada, and employment market data will be published in the USA.

 

Support and resistance

 

In the medium term, the trend will continue, as the growth rate of the economy and key US macroeconomic indicators are increasing. The price can rise to levels of 1.3595 and 1.3785, which were tested at the end of 2016 and the middle of 2017.

 

Technically, the pair stays within the upward channel, which is supported by the technical indicators’ readings: MACD volumes of long positions are growing, Bollinger bands are directed upwards.

 

Resistance levels: 1.3495, 1.3530, 1.3570, 1.3595, 1.3650, 1.3785.

Support levels: 1.3450, 1.3390, 1.3375, 1.3355, 1.3290, 1.3225, 1.3170.

 

Trading tips

 

It is relevant to increase the volumes of long positions from the current level and open pending long positions from the levels of 1.3450, 1.3390 with the targets at 1.3595, 1.3785 and stop loss 1.3310.

 

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LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general review

 

Current trend

 

Oil quotes show negative dynamics having reached the level of 56.03, the minimum value for the last 14 months.

 

Published yesterday, official data from the US Department of Energy, indicating a reduction in oil reserves by 0.497M barrels for the week, could not support the Brent rate. Experts predicted a more significant decrease in the amount of 2.437M barrels for the week. The pressure on prices is exerted by concerns regarding oversupply in the oil market. The new OPEC agreement to reduce oil production will come into force only next month and currently the level of oil production in such countries as the USA, Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation is at a high level. Also, additional pressure on prices is exerted by the general strengthening of USD in connection with the decision of the US Fed to raise the interest rate and to continue tightening monetary policy in 2019.

 

Support and resistance

 

Technical indicators show that downward movement potential is preserved. Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are directed downwards. MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone. One may speak about downward movement continuation after the price consolidates below the support level of 56.25. In this case, the decline may continue to the level of 55.46. If the price fails to consolidate below the level of 56.25, then an upward correction is likely to develop with the main target at 57.81, corresponding to the center line of Bollinger Bands.

 

Resistance levels: 57.03, 57.81, 58.59.

Support levels: 56.25, 55.46, 54.68.

 

Trading tips

 

Short positions may be opened from the current level with target at 54.68 and stop loss at 56.00.

Long positions may be opened above the level of 57.03 with target at 57.80–58.00 and stop loss at 56.80.

 

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LiteForex analitics. USD/CHF: general analysis

 

Current trend

 

USD strengthened slightly against CHF: the pair is now trading near the resistance level of 6/8 Murrey or 0.9948. If the currency can consolidate higher, then the next target will be the level of 7/8 Murrey or 0.9979.

 

USD may be affected negatively by a significant drop in the stock market. If there is no reversal in the near future, the current decline will be greatest since 2008: only last week, indices lost more than 6%. The leaders of the largest investment banks said that they had enough funds on their balance sheets for lending business and other market operations. On this issue, the Presidential Group on Financial Markets and the Fed will hold a working meeting under the leadership of Stephen Mnuchin.

 

The second negative point for USD is the shutdown of a part of US government since Donald Trump could not agree with the Senate about government spending. The US president planned to add to the expenditure side a project to build a wall on the Mexico border for a total of $5 billion but the Senate did not agree to sign the bill.

 

Today, there is no strong movement expected in the market, since many institutions do not conduct financial operations on Christmas Eve.

 

Support and resistance

 

Stochastic is at 68 points and does not give signals for opening positions.

Resistance levels: 0.9948, 0.9979.

Support levels: 0.9918, 0.9887.

 

Trading tips

 

Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.9979 with the target at 0.9887 and stop loss 1.0003.

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LiteForex analitics. SPX: general review

 

Current trend

 

S&P 500 has recovered slightly after reports from US President Donald Trump about excellent opportunities for buying shares of American companies, which have recently lost in price.

 

The president also noted that the US economy continues to grow, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell does an excellent job, although information about Trump’s intention to dismiss an official appeared before. A number of experts believe that the rapid market decline is caused by computer algorithms, since about 85% of operations are automated. On the other hand, the negative dynamics was triggered by fundamental factors, such as the tightening of monetary policy, the geopolitical situation, in particular the trade war between the US and China, as well as weak data on corporate profits of American companies. Also a negative factor for the market is the government shutdown due to the fact that the President was unable to agree with the Congress on government spending. Today, the US Senate will hold another meeting on this issue, but it is likely that it will not be resolved by the end of the year.

 

Support and resistance

 

Stochastic is at the level of 86 points indicating the possible correction.

Resistance levels: 2500.0, 2524.0.

Support levels: 2421.9, 2393.8.

 

Trading tips

 

Short positions may be opened from the resistance level of 2500.0 with take profit at 2393.8 and stop loss at 2524.0.

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LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

 

Morning Market Review

2019-01-10 09:49 (GMT+2)

US dollar is falling against most majors. Yesterday’s statements by the Fed representatives put pressure on the instrument. Chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Charles Evans, said that the regulator could postpone the next rate increase due to uncertainty about the prospects for the American economy. Eric Rosengren, the Boston Fed president, also proposes to postpone the increase in interest rates, and the current monetary policy, in his opinion, is appropriate under the current economic conditions. Investors reacted to these statements by selling the US currency. Macroeconomic events that can affect the dollar rate today include the statistics on initial jobless claims in the US (15:30 GMT+2), as well as the speech by the Fed Head Jerome Powell (19:00 GMT+2).

 

EUR/USD

 

The EUR/USD pair, supported by positive statistics on unemployment in the eurozone and the general weakening of the dollar, has risen to 1.1555. Today, investors will pay attention to the publication of ECB Account of Monetary Policy Meeting.

 

GBP/USD

 

Quotations of the pair GBP/USD rose to the level of 1.2782 due to the general weakening of USD. In the absence of news from the UK, the movement of the instrument will be influenced by the news from the United States.

 

USD/JPY

 

Quotes of the USD/JPY pair fell to 107.81 amid USD sales, triggered by statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve.

 

AUD/USD

 

The AUD/USD pair shows a moderate positive trend against the background of the general weakening of the US dollar, having risen to the level of 0.7186.

 

Gold

 

Gold quotes returned to the weekly highs and are trading at 1296.90 due to the weakened USD.

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LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

 

US dollar is showing weak negative dynamics against the majors during the Asian session. After active growth the day before, the observed decline in the dollar is correctional. In general, the pressure on the dollar continues to be exerted by the mitigated rhetoric of some representatives of the US Fed, including Jerome Powell, who said that the regulator could postpone the next increase in the interest rate in 2019. Today the statistics on the Consumer Price Index in the US (15:30 GMT+2) will be able to influence the rate. The indicator in monthly terms is expected to decrease to –0.1% in December from 0.0% a month earlier, and in annual terms it can decrease to 1.9% in December from 2.2% in the previous month. If this forecast is right, it will put pressure on the US dollar in the short run.

 

EUR/USD

 

The pair EUR/USD rose to 1.1526 due to the weakening USD. In the absence of news from the euro area, the movement of the instrument will be influenced by the news from the United States.

 

GBP/USD

 

The GBP/USD pair is growing insignificantly and is trading at 1.2756 during the Asian session. Investors are waiting for the publication of macroeconomic data from the UK on GDP, industrial production and manufacturing production (11:30 GMT+2). GDP is expected to remain unchanged at the level of 0.1% in November. Industrial production is expected to rise to 0.3% in November from –0.6% a month earlier. Manufacturing production is expected to rise to 0.4% MoM in November from –0.9% a month earlier, and YoY it can rise to –0.7% in November from –1.0% a month earlier. In general, confirmation of forecasts may support the GBP.

 

USD/JPY

 

The USD/JPY pair is moderately declining having fallen to 108.26 during the Asian session. Statistics from Japan published tonight turned out to be ambiguous and was ignored by the market. Household Spending YoY decreased to –0.6% in November from –0.3% a month earlier, and in monthly terms, the value of the indicator decreased less than expected and amounted to 1.1% in November against 1.8% a month earlier.

 

AUD/USD

 

Quotes of the pair AUD/USD show moderate positive dynamics reaching the level of 0.7210. The instrument is supported by positive data from Australia, published at night. Retail sales rose to 0.4% in November from 0.3% a month earlier.

 

Gold

 

The gold rate is growing against the backdrop of a weakening dollar, reaching 1293.00.

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LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: price is consolidating

 

Current trend

 

After an active growth at the beginning of the year, oil prices are consolidating near the level of $50 per barrel.

 

"Black gold" is supported by investors' hopes for a positive outcome of China-US trade negotiations and the end of the trade conflict in the near future. In addition, quotes are rising against the background of the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, which reported a likely reduction in production by 4.8% to 1.42 million barrels per day in 2019, which is the minimum figure for the last 30 years.

 

Last Friday, Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count report affected the instrument positively. During the week, the number of rigs decreased by 4 to 873 units. Over the past period, the figure also declined from 885 to 877.

 

Support and resistance

 

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing steadily. The price range narrows, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics in the short term. The MACD indicator is growing, keeping a buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line), and is testing the zero line but is not likely to consolidate above it. Stochastic declines, reacting to the active “bearish” dynamics of the beginning of the week.

 

The current readings of the indicators do not contradict the further development of the corrective decline in the short and/or super short term.

 

Resistance levels: 52.00, 53.19, 54.43, 55.64.

Support levels: 50.00, 49.00, 48.05, 47.00, 45.80.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions can be opened after the rebound from the level of 50.00 with the target at 52.00 or 53.19. Stop loss is 49.00.

 

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 50.00 with the target at 48.05 or 47.00. Stop loss is 51.00.

 

Implementation period: 2–3 days.

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LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

 

The US dollar is declining against the pound and the Australian currency, however, it shows a sideways trend paired with the euro and is growing against the yen. Today, investors will pay attention to the publication of PPI in the US (15:30 GMT+2). The indicator in monthly terms is expected to decrease to –0.1% in December from 0.1% a month earlier, and in annual terms it can remain unchanged at 2.5% in December. In the afternoon, speeches by members of the US Federal Reserve are expected. Speech by Neel Kashkari is planned for 18:30 (GMT+2), and speeches by Esther George and Robert Kaplan are expected at 20:00 (GMT+2). From their speeches, investors are hoping to understand the intentions of the regulator regarding the rate hike in 2019. Speeches of officials of this rank can have a significant impact on the dynamics of the dollar.

 

EUR/USD

 

The EUR/USD pair is moving within the range of 1.1449–1.1488. Investors are awaiting publication of data from the euro area on the trade balance (12:00 GMT+2), as well as the speech by the ECB President Mario Draghi (17:00 GMT+2).

 

GBP/USD

 

The pair GBP/USD continues showing positive dynamics having risen to 1.2908 during the Asian session. Today, investors are waiting for the outcome of the vote in the British Parliament on Brexit. Theresa May calls on MPs to approve the treaty, arguing that the consequences could otherwise be catastrophic. In case of failure of the vote, the Prime Minister will have three working days to prepare an alternative version of the contract.

 

USD/JPY

 

The USD/JPY pair is rising actively and has reached the level of 108.74 during the Asian session. Due to the absence of significant macroeconomic releases in Japan, the movement of the instrument is mostly technical.

 

AUD/USD

 

The pair AUD/USD is rising having reached 0.7217 during the Asian session. Against the background of the absence of macroeconomic releases from Australia, the movement of the instrument's rate is of a technical nature.

 

Gold

 

Quotes of gold demonstrate lateral dynamics and are traded near the level of 1290.00.

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LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

 

The US dollar moderately strengthens against the euro and the yen, but shows a lateral trend paired with the Australian currency. Statistics from the USA, published yesterday, indicated a decline in the Producer Price Index to –0.2% in December from 0.1% a month earlier, but did not have a significant impact on the instrument. Investors continue to follow the news regarding the US government shutdown, which has been going on for the fourth week and, according to representatives of the administration, may last until the end of February. This situation threatens the market with possible negative consequences. Macroeconomic statistics, which can influence USD today, include the data on retail sales in the USA (15:30 GMT+2).

 

EUR/USD

 

The EUR/USD pair dropped to the level of 1.1410. EUR is under pressure from yesterday’s speech by the ECB President Mario Draghi at the European Parliament. The official believes that the slowdown in the economy can last longer than expected. Uncertainty about Brexit puts additional pressure on the euro. Yesterday, the British Parliament rejected an agreement on the UK leaving the EU, prepared by Prime Minister Theresa May.

 

GBP/USD

 

The GBP/USD pair showed ambiguous dynamics on Tuesday amid heightened volatility caused by the outcome of a vote in the UK Parliament on withdrawal from the EU. Quotes fell to the level of 1.2667, after which they quickly returned to the level of 1.2869, where they are trading during today's Asian session. Yesterday, the British MPs rejected an agreement prepared by the government of Theresa May and the EU. MPs voted 432 to 202 to defeat the proposal. Now the Prime Minister has three days to present an alternative to the Brexit agreement. During this time, Theresa May will probably try to get new concessions from the EU, as well as convince the Parliament to support the deal. The instrument today may be affected by the speech of the Bank of England head Mark Carney (11:15 GMT+2), as well as statistics on the CPI in the UK in December (11:30 GMT+2).

 

USD/JPY

 

After active growth on Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair corrected down to 108.47 during today's Asian session. Yesterday's statistics from Japan was ignored by investors. The movement of the instrument rate is primarily technical. Tertiary Industry Activity Index was better than expected, but worse than in the previous month and amounted to –0.3% in December against 2.2% a month earlier.

 

AUD/USD

 

The AUD/USD pair shows lateral dynamics within the range of 0.7224–0.7178 and has changed slightly on the whole.

 

Gold

 

Quotes of gold have ambiguous dynamics. After an active decline yesterday and a test of the level of 1286.56, the instrument rate returned to 1292.15 during the Asian session.

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LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

 

The US dollar is moving horizontally paired with the euro, falling against the pound and the Australian currency, but is strengthening against the yen. The instrument is supported by macroeconomic statistics from the USA published yesterday. The number of initial jobless claims dropped to 213K from 216K a week earlier, which is the lowest level in the last 5 weeks. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index was better than expected reaching 17.0 points in January against 9.1 points a month earlier. Today, investors are waiting for the publication of data on Industrial Production in the US. It is expected that the indicator will fall to 0.2% in December from 0.6% a month earlier. If this assumption is right, it will put pressure on the US dollar in the short run.

 

EUR/USD

 

The EUR/USD pair is moving within the range of 1.1370–1.1403. Today, the macroeconomic calendar of euro area lacks important releases, so the movement of the rate will depend on the news from the US. Investors continue monitoring the development of the situation around Brexit. After the failure of a vote in the British Parliament, Theresa May must prepare a fallback deal.

 

GBP/USD

 

The pair GBP/USD continues showing positive dynamics and rose to 1.2970 during the Asian session. Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence and is preparing an alternative Brexit deal for January 21. Macroeconomic releases able to influence the instrument today include data on retail sales in the UK (11:30 GMT+2). The indicator in monthly terms is expected to decrease to –0.8% in December from 1.4% a month earlier, and in annual terms it can remain unchanged at 3.6% in December.

 

USD/JPY

 

The pair USD/JPY rose to 109.37 due to the positive statistics from the US. Statistics from Japan published this night puts pressure on the yen. National Core CPI went down to 0.7% in December from 0.9% a month earlier.

 

AUD/USD

 

The AUD/USD pair rose to 0.7202 during the Asian session. In the absence of significant releases, the movement of AUD is technical.

 

Gold

 

Quotes of gold demonstrate lateral dynamics and are traded near the level of 1291.02.

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LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

 

After active growth on Friday, the US dollar is moderately declining against most majors during today's Asian session. Due to the holiday in the US, investors correct their long dollar positions. Investors are still focused on the US-China trade negotiations. The market remains optimistic, perceiving data on a possible softening of the American position as a sign of a conclusion of a big deal.

 

EUR/USD

 

The EUR/USD pair rose to 1.1375 during the Asian session due to correction of USD. Due to the absence of important releases in the euro area, the movement of the instrument is technical.

 

GBP/USD

 

The pair GBP/USD continues showing negative dynamics having declined to 1.2856 during the Asian session. There are no significant releases planned in the British macroeconomic calendar today. Today Prime Minister Theresa May is to submit an alternative option for the country's withdrawal from the EU to the UK Parliament.

 

USD/JPY

 

Quotes of the pair USD/JPY decreased to 109.57 due to the low trading activity. Due to the absence of important releases in the US and Japan, the movement of the instrument is technical.

 

AUD/USD

 

Quotes of the AUD/USD pair went up to the level of 0.7167 during the Asian session, ignoring the weak data on HIA New Home Sales in Australia. According to statistics published tonight, the value of the index fell to –6.7% in December from 3.6% a month earlier.

 

Gold

 

During the Asian session, the quotations of gold tried to consolidate below 1281.25 several times, but failed and the rate moved to the phase of the upward correction.

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LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

 

Morning Market Review

2019-01-22 10:12 (GMT+2)

USD strengthens moderately against most majors, with the exception of the yen. On Monday, the American stock exchanges were closed due to the celebration of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, so there was a decrease in trading activity. Macroeconomic releases able to influence the instrument today include data on existing home sales in the US (17:00 GMT+2). The indicator is expected to reduce to 5.25M in January from 5.32M a month earlier. If this forecast is right, it will put pressure on the US dollar in the short run.

 

EUR/USD

 

Quotes of the EUR/USD pair went down to 1.1355 against the background of low trading activity. Investors are waiting for the publication of data from the euro area on ZEW Economic Sentiment. The indicator is expected to amount to –20.1 points in January against –21.0 points a month earlier. Despite the expected small increase in the indicator, pessimism in European business circles will continue to prevail, which could adversely affect the euro.

 

GBP/USD

 

The GBP/USD pair is moderately declining and is trading at 1.2878 during the Asian session. Yesterday, Theresa May presented an alternative Brexit plan in the British Parliament. As it turned out, the fallback is not much different from the previous one, rejected by Parliament. Among the main differences proposed there is the abolition of 65 pounds fee for EU citizens who want to stay in the UK after Brexit. A repeated referendum on the issue of the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU will not be held. Also, the British Prime Minister said that the government has changed its policy and will listen more to the opinion of MPs during the work on a new Brexit agreement. Macroeconomic releases that could have an impact on the pound today include data on unemployment and average earnings in the UK (11:30 GMT+2).

 

USD/JPY

 

The USD/JPY pair is declining moderately and is testing the level of 109.37 during the Asian session. As there is lack of key economic releases, the instrument is traded under the influence of technical factors.

 

AUD/USD

 

The AUD/USD pair dropped to 0.7138 during the Asian session. The pressure on the Australian currency is still exerted by weak data on new home sales in Australia, as well as weak statistics on China's GDP for the fourth quarter.

 

Gold

 

After testing the level of 1277.20, gold quotations slightly corrected upwards, but the downward trend still persists.

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LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

 

US dollar is falling against most majors. Yesterday's weak statistics on Existing Home Sales in the US exerts pressure on the instrument. The indicator went down to 4.99M in December from 5.33M in the previous month (–6.4%). The US macroeconomic calendar lacks important releases today. The movement of the USD paired with other currencies will be affected by the external factors. On the whole, the longest-lasting government shutdown continues to have a negative impact on the instrument. The parties are still far from a compromise, so it is possible that the government agencies shutdown will last until February or March. Such a scenario can lead to a weakening of the national economy by 0.5%.

 

EUR/USD

 

The pair EUR/USD rose to 1.1366 due to the weakening USD. In the absence of news from the US and the euro area, the movement of the instrument will be influenced by technical factors.

 

GBP/USD

 

Quotes of the pair GBP/USD rose to the level of 1.2939, where they are consolidating during the Asian session. Yesterday's strong data on the labor market in the UK, as well as the general weakening of the US currency, support the pound. Today, market participants are waiting for the publication of data on CBI Industrial Trends Orders. The indicator is expected to drop to 5 points in January from 8 points in the previous month. If the forecast proves right, the pound may fall under pressure.

 

USD/JPY

 

The USD/JPY pair today rose to 109.76 during the Asian session. Pressure on the yen is exerted by weak export data and All Industries Activity Index of the Japanese economy. Exports fell to –3.8% in December from 0.1% a month earlier, which is the most significant drop in the last two years. All Industries Activity Index went down to –0.3% in November from 2.1% a month earlier. As expected, the Bank of Japan left the interest rate unchanged at –0.10% and lowered its forecast for core consumer inflation from 1.4% to 0.9% in the fiscal year starting in April.

 

AUD/USD

 

Quotations of the pair AUD/USD rose to the level of 0.7141 due to the general weakening of USD. Due to the absence of important releases, the movement of the instrument is technical.

 

Gold

 

Due to the yesterday's weak US statistics, gold quotations increased to 1284.00.

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LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

 

The US dollar shows ambiguous dynamics against most majors, falling against the euro, pound and the yen, but strengthening against the Australian dollar. Today, market participants expect the publication of data from the United States on Initial Jobless Claims (15:30 GMT+2), as well as on Manufacturing PMI (16:45 GMT+2). It is expected that the number of initial jobless claims will rise to 220K from 213K a week earlier. Manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 53.5 points in January from 53.8 points a month earlier. If this forecast is right, it will put pressure on the US dollar in the short run.

 

EUR/USD

 

During yesterday's trading, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair strengthened significantly and reached the level of 1.1380, near which they are consolidating during the Asian session. Today, investors are waiting for the publication of data from the euro area on the Manufacturing PMI as well as on Services PMI (11:00 GMT+2), and also for the ECB interest rate decision. The rate is expected to remain unchanged at the level of 0.00%. Today at 15:30 GMT+2, Mario Draghi is expected to give a press conference. It is expected that the head of the ECB will describe the risks to the European economy and assess the results of the completed asset purchase program. Draghi’s opinion will be particularly important due to the potential aggravation of trade relations between the US and the EU. Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at the level of 51.4 points in January. Services PMI is expected to grow to 51.5 points in January from 51.2 points a month before.

 

GBP/USD

 

The pair GBP/USD is showing positive dynamics having risen to 1.3070 during the Asian session. The pound is supported by the likely extension of the Brexit negotiation process and the postponement of the UK’s final withdrawal from the EU from March 29 to a later date. Today, the macroeconomic calendar of the UK lacks important releases, so the movement of the rate will depend on external factors.

 

USD/JPY

 

The pair USD/JPY dropped to 109.57 due to the general weakening of USD. As there is a lack of key economic releases, the movement of the price is of technical nature.

 

AUD/USD

 

During the Asian trading session, the quotes of AUD/USD are traded in both directions. After the publication of positive statistics on the labor market in Australia, the rate of the instrument rose to the level of 0.7165, after which it just as quickly went down to the level of 0.7103. Employment Change turned out to be better than the forecasts and amounted to 21.6K in December against 37.0K a month earlier (with the forecast of +16.5K). The Unemployment Rate dropped to 5.0% in December from 5.1% a month earlier.

 

Gold

 

Gold quotations are falling moderately having dropped to 1281.25 during Asian trading.

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The US dollar is strengthening against the euro and the yen, but is declining against the pound and the AUD. The instrument is supported by macroeconomic statistics from the USA published yesterday. Manufacturing PMI increased to 54.9 points in January from 53.8 a month earlier. Initial jobless claims dropped to 199K from 212K a week earlier. Services PMI was better than the forecast of 54.0 points, but dropped to 54.2 points in January from 54.4 points a month earlier. Fundamental events today include Durable Goods Orders data in the US (15:30 GMT+2). It is expected that the indicator will rise to 1.8% in December from –4.3% a month earlier. If this assumption is right, it will support the instrument in the short run.

 

EUR/USD

 

The EUR/USD quotes amid yesterday's weak statistics on business activity indices in the eurozone and the ECB’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.00% at least until the end of summer fell to 1.1288. However, during today's Asian session, they are corrected upwards. Investors are waiting for the publication of data on German Ifo Business Climate Index. The indicator is expected to fall to 100.7 points in January from 101.0 points a month earlier. If the forecast is implemented, the rate of the instrument will fall under additional pressure.

 

GBP/USD

 

The GBP/USD pair rose to 1.3131 during the Asian session. The pound is supported by the news about Democratic Unionist Party's intention to support the alternative Brexit deal by Theresa May next week. Today, traders are waiting for statistics from the UK gross mortgage approvals (11:30 GMT+2). The indicator is expected to decline to 38.9K in December from 39.4K a month earlier. If the forecast proves right, it could put pressure on the pound in the short term.

 

USD/JPY

 

The USD/JPY pair today rose to 109.76 during the Asian session. Statistics from Japan released at night indicated an increase in Tokyo Core CPI to 1.1% in January from 0.9% a month earlier, but could not provide support to the yen.

 

AUD/USD

 

Quotations of the pair AUD/USD are declining moderately having amounted to 0.7095 at the backdrop of the absence of macroeconomic releases.

 

Gold

 

During the Asian session, quotes of gold are growing moderately and consolidated above the level of 1280.00.

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EUR/USD

 

The EUR/USD pair rose at the Asian session and is now trading at 1.1410. The market remains optimistic after the temporary cessation of the government shutdown in the United States. On Friday, President Donald Trump signed a decree financing the government for a period of three weeks. Trump made a deal with the Democrats, who, according to the American media, promised to allocate a significant part of the budget for the construction of the border wall with Mexico. It is not excluded that in three weeks the shutdown will resume if promises are not kept. During the day, European investors will be waiting for the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi in the European Parliament. Perhaps he will share his opinion on the state of the European economy. Last week after the regulator's meeting, Draghi noted that the risks to the growth of the European economy had become negative, which is associated with geopolitical factors and the threat of protectionism. However, the likelihood of a recession in the euro area is low.

 

GBP/USD

 

The pair GBP/USD started the week trading in the range of 1.3180–1.3210. Investors hope that within a week the issue of Brexit can be clarified. On Tuesday, a second vote is expected on a deal with the EU, but since the second version of the agreement does not differ much from the one rejected by the House of Commons, the chances for its support by the MPs are low. Repeated rejection of a deal with the EU could lead to the extension of negotiations and even to concessions from the leadership of the European Union, since neither side wants a tough Brexit. During the day, the market is waiting for the speech of Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, who can share his opinion on the prospects of the British economy in connection with Brexit, as well as highlight the further monetary policy of the regulator.

 

AUD/USD

 

During today's Asian session, the AUD/USD pair rose to the level of 0.7202 amid reports of the resumption of the US government, but has now corrected to the area of 0.7190. However, in general, the pair is moving under the influence of technical factors, since it is a day off in Australia, the stock exchanges are closed, and trading activity is low.

 

USD/JPY

 

Quotations of the pair USD/JPY during the Asian session continued declining and reached the level of 109.30. The yen is being strengthened as a safe haven asset against the background of a possible delay in the negotiations between the US and the PRC. Last week, US Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, said that the parties are still far from the deal. Today, the minutes of the last meeting of the Japanese regulator was published, but it did not give anything new to investors. Bank of Japan officials noted that in general, the Japanese economy continues to grow moderately, exports, industrial production and domestic demand increase moderately as well. Inflation continues to move to the target level of 2.0%. At the same time, the risks of world trade instability and increased protectionism remain. Under these conditions, the regulator will continue to maintain its current "dovish" monetary policy until inflation reaches 2.0%. Rates will remain at the same level for a long time.

 

Gold

 

Quotes of gold had ambiguous dynamics during the Asian session. At first, after a significant increase on Friday, they corrected to the level of 1300.00, but now they have won back their positions and are trading at the level of 1303.00.

 

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EUR/USD

 

On Monday afternoon, the EUR/USD pair dropped to the area of 1.1415, but has now recovered some of the losses and is trading at 1.1434. In general, investors are concerned about the official charges by the US authorities against the Chinese corporation Huawei. The company is accused of two dozen crimes including violating the sanctions regime against Iran and stealing technology from the American company T-Mobile. This information appeared on the eve of a new round of trade negotiations between the United States and China, and may well complicate them significantly. Additional pressure on the euro was put by the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi in the European Parliament. He said that recent economic data was worse than expected, and the reason for this was the decline in external demand and the threat of protectionism. Draghi also noted that in case of deterioration of the European economy, the regulator may use additional instruments to support it. During the day, investors are waiting for the publication in the US consumer confidence index from Conference Board. It is expected that the figure will fall for the third month in a row, this time from 128.1 to 124.7 points. The implementation of the forecast could put pressure on USD.

 

GBP/USD

 

The pair GBP/USD traded within the range of 1.3160–1.3144 during the Asian session. The market is calm, as investors are waiting for a new vote in the British parliament to be held today. The MPs would like to make a number of changes in the deal with the EU. A total of 14 amendments were proposed, including the exclusion of the possibility of no deal Brexit, a delay of several months and a temporary restriction on the backstop mechanism, according to which Northern Ireland should follow EU customs and trade rules until the parties agree on the Irish border. EU officials insisted that the backstop should be permanent, but this does not satisfy the majority of British MPs. If this amendment is adopted, the negotiations may come to a standstill, since Brussels had previously stated that they would not make any changes to the contract.

 

AUD/USD

 

During the Asian session, the pair AUD/USD showed ambiguous dynamics. After the decline to the level of 0.7137, the price recovered and is now trading at 0.7170. Australian investors are monitoring the situation around Huawei, accused in the US of economic crimes. This situation may adversely affect the trade negotiations between the United States and China, which will put pressure on the Australian economy. The speech of Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who said that Australia could expect the first in 28 years economic recession if the ruling party loses the next general election, is also in the focus.

 

USD/JPY

 

Quotations of the pair USD/JPY during the Asian session had ambiguous dynamics. After the decline to the level of 109.12, the instrument won back the losses and reached the level of 109.25. The yen is under pressure from the Cabinet of Ministers report, which lowered the estimate of exports of Japanese goods in January for the first time in three months. The reason for this was the trade conflict between China and the United States. The supplies of equipment for the production of electronics and semiconductors to the PRC suffered the most.

 

Gold

 

Gold quotes continued growth and reached the level of 1306.00. Investors are buying the asset because of the uncertainty around Brexit and the US-PRC trade negotiations.

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EUR/USD

 

During the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair has grown and is currently trading at 1.1445. Investors are encouraged by the statements of US officials regarding the upcoming trade negotiations with China. Donald Trump's economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said that the President remains moderately optimistic about the possibility of concluding a trade agreement with the PRC by March, despite the situation with Huawei. Secretary of the Treasury, Steven Mnuchin, in turn, noted that the government expects significant progress in the upcoming negotiations, primarily in the access of American companies to the Chinese market and the protection of technology. On the other hand, negative data on Consumer Confidence Index, which fell in January for the third month in a row and amounted to 120.2 points (the worst figure since 2017), put pressure on USD. According to experts, the decline is due to the general instability of the markets and the partial closure of the US government.

 

During the day, investors are waiting for the publication of statistics on US GDP for Q4 2018 (a decrease from 3.4% to 2.6% is expected) and data on ADP Nonfarm Payrolls (a decrease from 271K to 170K is expected). However, the most important event of the day will be the Fed's decision on the interest rate and comments by representatives of the regulator. The rate is expected to remain at the same level of 2.50%. However, investors are more interested in the number of rate increases planned for the current year.

 

GBP/USD

 

During the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair corrected upwards, partly winning back the positions lost the day before. The British currency is under pressure from the results of voting in the British Parliament regarding amendments to the Brexit deal. Yvette Cooper's amendment, which allows postponing the withdrawal of Great Britain from the European Union from March 29 to December 31 2018, was rejected, and Graham Brady's amendment, changing the article on backstop, passed the vote. Now Teresa May should return to Brussels and try to get new concessions from EU officials, based on the results of the vote. However, representatives of the European Union have repeatedly stated that they will not change the text of the deal; therefore the chances of success for the British Prime Minister are quite low.

 

AUD/USD

 

During today's Asian session, the AUD/USD pair rose to the level of 0.7200 against the background of positive data on inflation in Australia. CPI rose from 0.4% to 0.5% QoQ and decreased from 1.9% to 1.8% YoY. Thus, Australian inflation remains close to the target level of 2.0%.

 

USD/JPY

 

In the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair generally declined and is now testing the level of 109.25. JPY is supported by December retail sales data, which grew by 1.3%, exceeding market expectations. It is likely that sales will continue to grow over the coming months as citizens seek to make acquisitions ahead of the planned increase in sales tax from 8% to 10% this autumn.

 

Gold

 

Gold quotes continued growth and reached the level of 1314.95. Investors are buying the asset because of the uncertainty around Brexit and the US-PRC trade negotiations.

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EUR/USD

 

During the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair continued to grow and has now risen to 1.1508. Investors positively assessed the results of the Fed meeting where it was decided to leave the interest rate in the range of 2.25% –2.50%. During the press conference, the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, said that at the moment there are fewer arguments in favor of the rate increase, therefore the Fed will take a wait-and-see approach. Powell also noted that in the current year the growth rate of the American economy may slow down. The government shutdown may lead to a decrease in GDP in Q1 2019, but if there are no new shutdowns, then in Q2 2019 the economy will recover its losses. USD was also supported by ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data. In January, the growth rate exceeded forecasts and amounted to 213K.

 

During the day, the market is waiting for the release of data on euro area GDP (expected to decline from 1.6% to 1.2%), for Initial Jobless Claims in the US (growth is expected to 215K) and for New Home Sales (expected to increase from 544K to 560K).

 

GBP/USD

 

The GBP/USD pair was growing during the Asian session and reached the level of 1.3137. The pound strengthened against the background of a positive market reaction to the results of the Fed meeting. However, in general, the situation for GBP remains difficult. In the near future, the pound will be under pressure from the negative reaction of European officials to the British MPs backstop amendment. The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, and French President, Emmanuel Macron, have already opposed it. EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, noted that the backstop rule is a realistic solution to prevent the creation of a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland and therefore should remain unchanged. European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, said that the last vote in the British Parliament increased the risk of a tough Brexit, but expressed the hope that the deal could still be concluded. In general, it does not seem that Brussels would make concessions to London, and this increases the likelihood of Britain leaving the EU without a deal or cancellation of Brexit in order to prevent economic losses.

 

AUD/USD

 

At the Asian session, the pair AUD/USD grew to 0.7270. In addition to the outcome of the Fed meeting, the Australian dollar is supported by positive Chinese statistics. In January, Manufacturing PMI of China grew for the first time in five months and amounted to 49.5 points. Non-Manufacturing PMI increased for the second month in a row, this time from 53.8 to 54.7 points.

 

USD/JPY

 

Quotes of the USD/JPY pair in the Asian session were falling and are now at 108.67. The yen is supported by positive Chinese statistics on Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI and the outcome of the Fed meeting. Also, the Japanese currency is supported by data on the volume of industrial production in Japan, which declined by 0.1% in December, which is much less than the market expected (decrease by 0.5%) and November figures (decrease by 1.0%). In general, the slowdown in the decline in production indicates the prospects for the recovery of the Japanese economy.

 

Gold

 

Quotes of gold at the Asian session were mainly traded in the range of 1320.30–1317.15. The pressure on the US dollar and the demand for the precious metal were the result of recent decisions by the US Federal Reserve.

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EUR/USD

 

The EUR/USD pair declined moderately at the Asian session and is now trading at 1.1430. USD is strengthening against the backdrop of statements by US President Donald Trump, who said on Twitter that trade negotiations with the Chinese delegation are going well and the parties are trying to conclude a deal without leaving a single issue unresolved. However, Trump indicated that he would not enter into a trade agreement until he met with PRC Chairman Xi Jinping again. Such a meeting may take place at the end of February in China. In general, the market remains optimistic, hoping for a resolution of the conflict between the United States and China. Also, the US currency is supported by strong November data on new home sales in the USA. The growth rate exceeded forecasts and amounted to 657K.

 

During the day the market will be waiting for the January data from the US labor market. The unemployment rate is expected to remain st the same level of 3.9%. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to reduce from 312K to 165K. Today's data may be better than expected, as the leading indicator of ADP Nonfarm Employment Change exceeded market expectations and amounted to 213K. In this case, the strengthening of the dollar will continue.

 

GBP/USD

 

In the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair was declining and is now trading at 1.3090. The British currency is under pressure from the uncertainty of Brexit. The European Union is not going to make concessions to the UK and change the current text of the deal in accordance with the amendments of the British MPs. Under these conditions, the assumption that the UK’s exit date from the EU may be postponed to a later date does not subside. British Foreign Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, hinted at this in an interview with the BBC.

 

Today, the release of the January Manufacturing PMI in the UK is expected. After two months of growth, the indicator is expected to resume the decline and drop from 54.2 to 53.5 points, which could put pressure on GBP.

 

AUD/USD

 

The AUD/USD pair has been declining during today's Asian session and is currently trading at 0.7240. AIG Manufacturing PMI data were positive. In January, the indicator grew from 49.5 to 52.5 points. However, the Australian currency was unable to strengthen due to the weakness of the real estate market, whose condition continues to deteriorate. In January, housing prices again fell by 1%, and on an annualized basis they declined by 5.6%.

 

USD/JPY

 

Quotes of USD/JPY at the Asian session were mainly traded in the range of 108.90–108.80. The latest Japanese statistics turned out to be strong. The unemployment rate fell to 2.4% (the lowest since 1992). And Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose in January from 50.0 to 50.3 points.

 

Gold

 

Gold quotes are corrected downwards and reached the level of 1317.15. The decline is happening against the backdrop of investor hopes that the US and the PRC will sign a trade deal.

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EUR/USD

 

During the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair was going down and has now dropped to 1.1440 (–0.12%). The dollar is strengthened against the background of positive January data from the US labor market. The unemployment rate rose from 3.9% to 4.0%. However, investors attach greater importance to employment growth: the indicator increased from 206K to 296K. Also, the positions of the US currency were strengthened by the statistics on Manufacturing PMI. In January, the indicator grew from 54.3 to 56.6 points. Finally, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, a voting member of the FOMC, James Bullard hinted once again that there would be no further rate increase in the near future. In an interview to CNBC, he noted that "the level of rates is very good where it is today", and "now it’s time to wait and see how the economy develops".

 

During the day, the data on the volume of factory orders in the United States for November will be published. The figure is expected to grow by 0.3%, which may provide additional support for the American currency.

 

GBP/USD

 

The pair GBP/USD in the Asian session goes down smoothly. By now the pair has dropped to 1.3065 (–0.07%). The British currency is under pressure from the poor statistics and the uncertainty of Brexit. Manufacturing PMI, published on Friday in the UK, fell sharply in January and reached 52.8 points, the lowest in the last three months. The situation with Brexit continues to be deadlock, which negatively affects the pound. The UK is seeking to make alternative arrangement on backstop, but the EU does not intend to renegotiate the issue. British Secretary of State for International Trade, Liam Fox, called such a position of European officials "irresponsible." Meanwhile, the Prime Minister Theresa May still intends to go to Brussels and seek new concessions.

 

During the day, the data on Construction PMI in January will be published in the UK. It is expected that the figure will fall for the second month in a row, this time from 52.8 to 52.6 points. If the forecast proves right, the pound may fall under pressure.

 

AUD/USD

 

The pair AUD/USD opened trading week with the decline, dropping to around 0.7225 (–0.29%). The Australian dollar is weakening due to negative data on the number of building approvals. In December, on a monthly basis, their number decreased again (for the third month in a row), this time by 8.4%. In total, last year reduction was 22%. The decline in housing prices has resulted in the refusal of companies to construct new buildings, which leads to a reduction in the construction sector and pressure on the Australian currency.

 

USD/JPY

 

Quotes of the USD/JPY pair in the Asian session rose reaching 109.75 (+0.26%). The US dollar is strengthening against the yen due to the positive labor market data, which in general turned out to be better than expected. In addition, the confidence in the postponement of a new tightening of the Fed monetary policy is being strengthened, which also supports the US currency.

 

Gold

 

Gold quotes are corrected downwards and reached the level of 1312.15 (–0.42%). The price is falling against the general strengthening of the dollar due to strong data on the US labor market.

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EUR/USD

 

During the Asian session, the pair EUR/USD was traded within the range 1.1439–1.1428. In general, negative data on production orders in the USA and the threat of a new government shutdown put pressure on the US currency. Factory orders in November, instead of the expected growth of 0.3%, declined by 0.6% for the second month in a row. Meanwhile, the US government was threatened with a new shutdown, since its current funding will only last until February 15. The contract of the Presidential Administration and the Democrats implied that they would conclude an agreement and seek USD 5.7 billion to build a wall on the Mexican border, but so far it has not been reached. President Donald Trump has already called further negotiations useless. The latest shutdown caused damage to the national economy in the amount of USD 6 billion, so the threat of a new closure unnerves the market.

 

Today, President Trump will speak in Congress and will share his plans for the future. Also during the day, investors are waiting for the publication of a block of economic statistics. January data on the euro area's Services PMI (probably the level of 50.8 points will remain), as well as on ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (probably decreasing to 57.0 points) and on retail sales in the euro area (a decrease is probable) will be released.

 

GBP/USD

 

In the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair was moderately growing and is now trading at 1.3040. In general, the British currency continues to remain under pressure. Prime Minister Theresa May continues consultations on Brexit deal with Members of Parliament. Some hope of a compromise with the EU came after German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, noted that new British proposals on the Irish border should be heard.

 

During the day, the January the UK Services PMI is expected to be published, which, following the Manufacturing and Construction PMI, may be weak (a decrease from 51.2 to 51.1 points is expected), which may put additional pressure on the pound.

 

AUD/USD

 

During the Asian session, the pair AUD/USD demonstrated ambiguous dynamics. At first, it dropped to 0.7192, but then it has won the losses back and is now trading at around 0.7260. December data on retail sales in Australia were poor. On a monthly basis, the indicator decreased by 0.4%, while in quarterly terms it slowed down from 0.2% to 0.1%. The Reserve Bank of Australia expectedly kept the interest rate at around 1.50%, but in the accompanying statements the regulator expressed optimism, which supported the national currency. The RBA officials continue to wait for further reductions in unemployment and inflation growth to target levels, but due to global trade tensions, the downside risks in the economy have increased.

 

USD/JPY

 

Quotations of the pair USD/JPY during the Asian session had ambiguous dynamics. After the growth to 110.00, the quotes corrected to the level of 109.80. In the absence of significant economic news in Japan, the movement of the instrument is technical in nature and is focused on data from the United States.

 

Gold

 

Gold quotations rose to 1315.00 during the Asian session. Investors fear a sharpening of the political struggle in the United States and the possibility of another government shutdown, which is fraught with new multi-billion dollar losses.

 

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EUR/USD

 

During the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair was going down and is now traded at 1.1395 (–0,08%). The dollar is strengthening against the backdrop of a speech by US President Donald Trump in Congress, where the unprecedented growth of the national economy in the past two years was mentioned. In particular, the creation of 5.3M new jobs, more than 600K of which was new jobs in production, a decrease in unemployment and a rise in wages were noted.

 

During the day, data on changes in the trade balance (the deficit is expected to decrease to –54.0B dollars), data on Nonfarm Productivity (Q4), as well as data on Unit Labor Costs (Q4) will be published in the US.

 

GBP/USD

 

In the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is moving in the lateral channel and is now trading at 1.2950. The British currency fell sharply yesterday, amid a decline in Services PMI from 51.2 to 50.1 points. Prime Minister Theresa May continues her visit to Northern Ireland, during which she expects to discuss changes in the backstop mechanism.

 

No significant macroeconomic releases are expected today in the UK.

 

AUD/USD

 

During today's Asian session, the AUD/USD pair shows a sharp decline against the background of the speech of the head of the RBA, Philip Lowe, in particular his comments on monetary policy. The head of the regulator said that the board of the Bank continues to carefully assess the prospects for the development of the economy and does not see compelling reasons for changing the level of rates in the short term. The pair has lost 0.99% and is currently trading around 0.7135.

 

USD/JPY

 

Quotations of the pair USD/JPY during the Asian session had ambiguous dynamics. After the decline to 109.60, the quotes corrected to the level of 109.80. In the absence of significant economic news in Japan, the movement of the instrument is technical in nature and is focused on data from the United States.

 

Gold

 

Gold quotations declined to 1313.00 during the Asian session.

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EUR/USD

 

In the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair consolidated after a decline and traded mostly in a narrow range of 1.1366–1.1357. The market positively assessed the comments of US Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, who noted that trade negotiations with representatives of the PRC are going very productively and the parties intend to make every effort to conclude a big trade deal before the beginning of March. Mnuchin will lead the US delegation, which will go to Beijing next week for a new round of trade negotiations. The dollar was under pressure from comments by former Fed Head, Janet Yellen, who supposed that the regulator could lower the interest rate in the event of a weakening global economic growth. Yesterday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did not contain new information on monetary policy. He noted only that in the next decade, the United States will face an increase in the gap in the level of citizens' well-being and urged to fight it.

 

Today, there should be a meeting between British Prime Minister Theresa May