Jump to content

Welcome to Digital Money Talk Forum - Forex, Ecurrency exchange and Cryptocurrency Forum
Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to create topics, post replies to existing threads, give reputation to your fellow members, get your own private messenger, post status updates, manage your profile and so much more. If you already have an account, login here - otherwise create an account for free today!


Rotating Banners

Read our Advertising Disclaimers


Refund Policy


Photo

LiteForex Analytics

LiteForex Analytics

  • Please log in to reply
584 replies to this topic

#581
MikhailLF

MikhailLF

    Advanced Member

  • Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 290 posts
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review
 
EUR/USD
 
The European currency continues to remain under pressure, updating local lows against the dollar at the beginning of the week. However, at the Asian session on February 12, the instrument once again attempts correction. Investors are quite optimistic about the dollar against the background of the emerging progress on the issue of the US-China trade conflict. In turn, the euro is under pressure from disappointing macroeconomic statistics, reflecting a significant slowdown in the region’s major economies, in particular Germany. In addition, the market remains in suspense before Brexit, which will undoubtedly affect the economic situation. Today, investors will focus on speeches by the heads of the German Federal Bank, the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve.
 
GBP/USD
 
The British pound shows sluggish corrective growth at today's Asian session, correcting after a significant decline in the beginning of the week, which led to an update of the local lows of January 21. The reason for the emergence of negative dynamics in the instrument, in addition to a fairly strong position of the dollar in the market, was the disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Industrial production in December decreased by 0.5% MoM and 0.9% YoY after a decrease of 0.3% MoM and 1.3% YoY last month. The GDP in December decreased by 0.4% MoM after rising by 0.2% in November. In quarterly terms, the growth rate of the economy fell sharply from +0.6% QoQ to +0.2% QoQ, which, however, coincided with the expectations of analysts.
 
AUD/USD
 
The Australian dollar shows moderate growth during today's Asian session, retreating from local lows of 4 January. The growth of AUD takes place against the background of the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Australia and is largely technical in nature. NAB Business Confidence rose from 3 to 4 points in January. NAB Business Survey jumped from 2 to 7 points over the same period, while the forecast was 4 points. At the same time, the Home Loans indicator reflected a decline in loans issued in December by 6.1% MoM after a decline of 0.9% MoM in November. Analysts had expected "bearish" trend to strengthen, but counted on only –2.0% MoM decline.
 
USD/JPY
 
The US dollar is strengthening against the Japanese yen, updating local highs of December 28, 2018. The markets of Japan were closed on Monday due to a national holiday, so the dynamics of the instrument was subject to external factors. During the Asian session on February 12, investors are awaiting the publication of not the most optimistic macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Among it, Tertiary Industry Activity Index in January and a preliminary estimate of Machine Tool Orders in January can be highlighted.
 
Oil
 
Oil prices showed a negative trend at the beginning of the week, but managed to correct closer to the end of the afternoon session on February 11. Quotes are falling due to the growth of drilling activity in the United States, as was recorded in the Baker Hughes report at the end of the last trading week. Additional pressure comes from the process of trade negotiations between the United States and China, despite the preliminary agreements reached on the date of commencement of the official meeting of heads of the two states. If negotiations fail, the United States will raise tariffs on Chinese goods on March 1. Similar responses will be taken by China, which will further complicate the situation. Today, investors are focused on API Weekly Crude Oil Stock for February 8. The previous report reflected the growth of stocks by 2.514 million barrels.

  • 0

#582
MikhailLF

MikhailLF

    Advanced Member

  • Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 290 posts
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review
 
EUR/USD
 
In the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair rose to the area of 1.1340 (+0.11%). The US currency is weakening, despite the positive comments by US President Donald Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, made the day before. Trump said he was ready to postpone the expiration of the trade truce from March 2, if there is a serious chance to sign a trade deal. Speaking in Mississippi on Tuesday, Powell noted that the US economy looks strong, resulting in low unemployment and good economic growth. However, the regulator will continue to look for ways to combat poverty.
 
During the day the publication of important statistical data is expected. The euro area's December statistics on the volume of industrial production promises to be weak. On an annualized basis, production could be reduced for the second month in a row, by another 3.2%. On a monthly basis, a reduction of 0.4% is possible. In the United States, January inflation data will be released. On an annualized basis, the Consumer Price Index may drop significantly from 1.9% to 1.5%, and the Core Consumer Price Index can decrease from 2.2% to 2.1%. Current forecasts do not contribute to the strengthening of neither the dollar nor the euro.
 
GBP/USD
 
The pair GBP/USD rose to the level of 1.2920 (+0.24%). Investors were not scared by the pessimistic comments of the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney. Speaking on Tuesday, he called on the British parliament to break the impasse over Brexit, warning that withdrawing from the EU without a deal would be an economic shock for the UK, which is especially dangerous against the backdrop of China’s recession and world trade tensions. Currently, investors are curtailing activity, waiting for the resolution of the situation. Carney noted that a 3% decline in the Chinese economy will lead to a reduction in world GDP by 1%, and the introduction of the US additional 10% export tariffs on leading trading partners could reduce world production by 1%.
 
During the day, the market is waiting for the publication of the January data on inflation in the UK. It is expected that the Consumer Price Index on an annualized basis will continue to decline and for the first time since January 2017 it will fall below the target level, reaching 1.9%. The Core Consumer Price Index can remain at the same level of 1.9%. If the forecast proves right, the pound may fall under pressure.
 
AUD/USD
 
In the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair rose to the area of 0.7132 (+0.55%) against the background of the positive February data on the Consumer Sentiment Index in Australia. After a decrease by 4.7% in January, the index rose by 4.3% in February, which is encouraging investors. However, the overall situation with the Australian economy remains alarming, helped by the weakening of the Australian construction market and world trade tensions.
 
USD/JPY
 
Quotes of the USD/JPY pair rose in the Asian session, reaching 110.60 (+0.14%). As there is a lack of key economic releases in Japan, the movement of JPY is of technical nature. Investors are waiting for the results of a new round of trade negotiations between the PRC and the United States, held in Beijing.
 
Gold
 
Quotes of gold in the Asian session are corrected upwards after a significant fall on Tuesday. Currently, the price has reached the level of 1314.00 (+0.23%) and almost won back the positions lost the day before.
 

  • 0

#583
MikhailLF

MikhailLF

    Advanced Member

  • Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 290 posts
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review
 
EUR/USD
 
During the Asian session, the pair EUR/USD is corrected upwards after a significant decline on Wednesday. The price has reached the level of 1.1282 (gaining 0.24%). Yesterday investors' hopes raised amid the information about the likely meeting of the PRC Chairman Xi Jinping with the leaders of the American trade delegation Steven Mnuchin and Robert Lighthizer since both parties can manage to conclude a deal before the end of the truce on March 2. The latest data on inflation in the United States were also positive. In January, the consumer price index fell less than expected by the market and amounted to 1.6%. Core CPI remained at 2.2%.
 
During the day, the market awaits the publication of data on the Eurozone GDP in 4Q2018. The indicator is expected to remain at 0.2% QoQ and at 1.2% YoY. In the United States, statistics on sales will be published. According to forecasts, the indicator may reduce from 0.2% to 0.1%, which may cause pressure on USD.
 
GBP/USD
 
During the Asian session, the pair GBP/USD was rising after a significant decline on Wednesday. Quotes have reached the level of 1.2870 (gaining 0.22%). Investors are waiting for the situation around Brexit to develop. Yesterday, there was the information that the European Commission may agree to postpone the withdrawal of Britain from the EU from March 29 this year. However, later, Prime Minister Theresa May said in the Parliament that she intends to complete Brexit by the due date. Today, a new debate on the further steps of the UK regarding the deal with the EU should be held in the House of Commons.
 
AUD/USD
 
The pair AUD/USD was growing at the Asian session and has now reached the level of 0.7123 (adding 0.29%). Investors are hoping for a possible conclusion of the US-China trade deal, the likelihood of which is indicated by the upcoming meeting of PRC President Xi Jinping and the American representatives Steven Mnuchin and Robert Lighthizer. In the evening, the market is waiting for the speech of the assistant to the head of the RBA, Christopher Kent, with the report "Financial Conditions and the Australian Dollar", which may contain hints on the regulator's further policy.
 
USD/JPY
 
The pair USD/JPY had ambiguous dynamics during the Asian session. The decline to the level of 110.85 was replaced by growth and now the instrument is at 111.10. Statistics released today showed Japanese GDP growth in 4Q2018 by 0.3% QoQ and 1.4% YoY, which can be considered a good result after the economic contraction in Q3. GDP growth was provided by an increase in capital expenditures of companies by 2.4%. However, further economic growth may be hindered by a new sales tax, which the Japanese government is going to impose this year.
 
Gold
 
During the Asian session, gold quotes are corrected upwards after a significant decline on Wednesday. Now, the price is at the level of 1309.00 (having added 0.31%).

  • 0

#584
MikhailLF

MikhailLF

    Advanced Member

  • Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 290 posts
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review
 
EUR/USD
 
During the Asian session, the pair EUR/USD was correcting down after Thursday growth. Currently, the price is at the level of 1.1282, having lost 0.1%. Yesterday, the dollar was pressured by a number of negative factors. Statistics on US retail sales for December was weak. The sales volume unexpectedly fell by 1.2%, and it was even 3.9% in the e-commerce sector. This decline was the biggest in 9 years, it could put pressure on GDP. Fed spokeswoman Lael Brainard said she was concerned about the state of the American economy, as the risks to its growth are increasing. But most of all, the market was alarmed by information that President Donald Trump could sign a draft security agreement between Democrats and Republicans, while simultaneously imposing a state of emergency in several states. Thus, the government will not be closed, but the administration will be able to finance the border wall, bypassing Congress.
 
During the day, data on retail sales in the United States will be published. In December, the figure may remain at 0.2%.
 
GBP/USD
 
During the Asian session, the pair GBP/USD traded within the lateral range of 1280.00-1.2788. Yesterday, the pound was pressured due to another defeat of Teresa May in parliament. Deputies of the House of Commons rejected a proposal that would confirm the government’s mandate for further negotiations on Brexit. 258 voted for the proposal, and 303 parliamentarians opposed it. Some representatives of the Conservative Party abstained, which predetermined the defeat of May. This vote did not have legal force, but it showed the instability of positions and raised doubts that the Prime Minister would be able to persuade the parliament to approve the deal with the EU.
 
During the day, data on retail sales in the United Kingdom will be published. In January, the figure may grow by 0.2%, and YoY, from 3.0% to 3.4%. If the forecast proves to be true, this may render support to GBP.
 
AUD/USD
 
During the Asian session, the pair AUD/USD had an ambiguous dynamic. The decline to 0.7078 was replaced by a corrective growth, as a result of which part of the losses was won back. Now the instrument is at the level of 0.7090, having lost about 0.15%. AUD is pressured by weak Chinese inflation data. In January, the consumer price index in China slowed growth and amounted to 1.7%. In Melbourne, RBA Assistant Governor, Christopher Kent, noted that one should not be surprised at some weakening of AUD in view of a reduction in global economic activity and forecasts of deterioration of trade in Australia itself.
 
USD/JPY
 
The pair USD/JPY had ambiguous dynamics during the Asian session. The decline to 110.25 was replaced by growth to the level of 110.36. As a result, the pair lost 0.1%. JPY is generally pressured by weak data on the volume of industrial production in Japan. In December, it declined for the second consecutive month, this time by 0.1%.
 
Gold
 
During the Asian session, quotes of gold rose, reaching 1314.00 and adding about 0.6%.

  • 0

#585
MikhailLF

MikhailLF

    Advanced Member

  • Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 290 posts
LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review
 
EUR/USD
 
The euro is trading in a downtrend during the Asian session on February 19, after a slight rise yesterday. Monday’s growth was largely technical in nature, as US markets were closed on the occasion of a national holiday, and there was no interesting macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone. Investors' are focused on the US-Chinese trade negotiations, as well as the Brexit deal. This week, the second round of negotiations will take place in Washington, and investors are still hoping for a favorable outcome. The situation around Brexit is somewhat more complicated. Given the reluctance of the parties to make additional compromises, and the limited time to resolve these issues, the chances of a "tough" Brexit are very high.
 
GBP/USD
 
The British pound returns to decline during the Asian session, after updating local highs yesterday. Investors are extremely concerned about the prospects for Brexit and fear the worst scenario. The week, the negotiations of the British Prime Minister Theresa May with the head of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker and the heads of particular EU countries will be held. May will try again to make changes to the final agreement regarding the Irish border, despite the fact that the EU has previously stated a tough position on this issue. On February 19, investors expect the publication of a block of statistics on the labor market. In particular, analysts expect some increase in average wages in December from 3.3% 3MoY to 3.4% 3MoY. The unemployment rate in December should remain at 4%.
 
AUD/USD
 
The Australian dollar is trading in a downtrend against the US one, declining as the market becomes saturated with the news. USD is in demand amid a noticeable improvement in the prospects for trade negotiations with China, which inspire hope that an agreement will be reached before the scheduled deadline on March 1. Published today, the minutes of the RBA meeting on February 5 meeting did not provide any support to the instrument. The regulator noted an improvement in the labor market but also pointed to a sharp increase in external risks in the past few months. By the end of 2019, the RBA expects the economy to grow by about 3%; later, the GDP dynamics may slow down to an average of 2.75% by mid-2020.
 
USD/JPY
 
On Monday, the US dollar showed a slight increase against the Japanese yen and shows ambiguous dynamics during the Asian session on February 19. There are quite a few new growth drivers on the market, so investors rely on previous signals. In particular, the dollar is supported by good prospects for a trade deal between the United States and China. In turn, the pressure comes from internal political conflicts and the soft position on the Fed, which took a pause in the interest rate increase cycle. Trading activity will begin to grow by Wednesday when Japan publishes January import and export data, and the FOMC meeting minutes would be released in the US.
 
Oil
 
Oil prices continue to trade in an upward trend, updating local highs amid a noticeable improvement in the prospects for further reductions in oil production among OPEC countries. Earlier, Russia and Saudi Arabia declared a possibility to reduce production volumes substantially more than was expected by the cartel agreement signed earlier. The quotes are also supported by US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. In turn, concerns about the slowdown in China’s economy serve as a strong deterrent. The growth of drilling activity in the US also continues to have a negative impact on prices.

  • 0



Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: LiteForex, Analytics