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LiteForex Analytics

LiteForex Analytics

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465 replies to this topic

#461
MikhailLF

MikhailLF

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LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general review
 
Current trend 
 
GBP continues strengthening due to positive economic statistics and is testing the level of 1.3244 (Murrey [5/8]). 
Wednesday's data on the Services PMI in the UK proved to be strong and strengthened GBP. In June, the indicator reached the 8-month maximum at 55.1 points. According to experts, this could lead to GDP growth by 0.4% in the UK in Q2 2018 and push the Bank of England to increase the interest rate at an August meeting. However, for such a decision, inflation in the country should be above the target level of 2.0%. Currently, this indicator continues to decline and has already reached the level of 2.4%.
The situation with Brexit remains controversial. Theresa May's Cabinet developed a new plan for customs cooperation with the EU. According to it, after leaving the EU, Britain will be able to set its own tariffs on imported goods while transit products going to the EU through the UK territory will have to be taxed by the EU duties.
 
Support and resistance
 
The price is testing the level of 1.3244 (Murrey [5/8]), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of growth to 1.3305 (Murrey [6/8]), 1.3366 (Murrey [7/8]). The key level for the "bears" seems to be 1.3183 (Murrey [2/8]), midline of Bollinger Bands). If it is broken down, the price may decline to 1.3122 (Murrey [3/8]) and 1.3061 (Murrey [2/8]). Technical indicators don’t provide a clear signal. Stochastic has reversed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone.
Support levels: 1.3366, 1.3305.
Resistance levels: 1.3061, 1.3122, 1.3183. 
 
Trading tips
 
Buy positions may be opened from 1.3260 with targets at 1.3305, 1.3366 and stop-loss at 1.3220. Sell positions may be opened from 1.3183 with targets at 1.3122, 1.3061 and stop-loss at 1.3220.
Implementation time: 3-5 days.
 
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#462
MikhailLF

MikhailLF

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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review
 
Current trend 
 
Today, US trade duties on goods produced in China came into effect, totaling USD 34 billion. According to experts, the impact of tariffs on the Chinese economy will be noticeable in 3-6 months and may lead to a 0.2% decrease in its growth. Now investors are waiting for the official reaction of the Chinese authorities, in particular, the press conference of the Premier of the State Council of the PRC, Li Keqiang. Beijing's response may be symmetric, but the US administration warned that if the conflict escalated, it could introduce additional duties on Chinese goods totaling USD 500 billion.
In the evening, investors expect the publication of data on Nonfarm payrolls in the US. The indicator can decline from 223K to 195K. Thursday's statistics on ADP Employment Change also proved to be weak: in June the indicator dropped from 189K to 177K.
Support and resistance
 
 
The price is testing 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]) and in case of consolidation above it the price can reach the levels of 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8]) and 1.1962 (Murrey [2/8]). A breakdown of the midline of Bollinger Bands at 1.1650 will give the prospect of a decline to the level of 1.1530 (the bottom line of Bollinger Bands). Indicators show growth. Stochastic is directed upwards, and MACD histogram is about to move to the positive zone.
Support levels: 1.1650, 1.1530.
Resistance levels: 1.1718, 1.1840, 1.1962.
 
Trading tips
 
Buy positions may be opened above the level of 1.1718 with target at 1.1840 and stop-loss at 1.1670. 
Sell positions may be opened above the level of 1.1650 with target at 1.1530 and stop-loss at 1.1690. 
Implementation period: 3-5 days.
 
53a1e3424b2a82901145bdc112cc860b-full.pn

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#463
MikhailLF

MikhailLF

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LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: general review
 
Current trend 
 
Today, the pair is trading near the midline of Bollinger Bands (D1) at 110.50. 
Today, at the meeting of the heads of the Bank of Japan regional branches, Haruhiko Kuroda spoke. In general, the head of the Japanese regulator confirmed his opinion that a soft monetary policy should be continued until inflation stabilizes at 2.0%.
This week, investors will focus on the development of the US-China trade conflict and the publication of June inflation data in the US. The trade war leads to instability in the world economy and can force the Fed to lower the hike of interest rate increase. The index of inflation promises to remain above the target level of 2.0% for the fourth consecutive month, which indicates the restoration of the American economy and the need to normalize monetary policy.
 
Support and resistance
 
Now the price is at the middle line of the Bollinger bands at 110.50. The key for the "bears" is 110.15 (Murrey [5/8]). If it is broken down, a further decrease to 109.37 (Murrey [4/8]) and 108.59 (Murrey [3/8]) is likely. Long positions will become relevant if the price consolidates above the level of 110.93 (Murrey [6/8]), which was tested unsuccessfully this year. In this case, the target of the "bulls" will be 111.72 (Murrey [7/8]) and 112.50 (Murrey [8/8]). 
Technical indicators don't provide a clear signal. MACD histogram is stable in the positive zone. Stochastic is directed downwards.
Support levels: 110.15, 109.37, 108.59.
Resistance levels: 110.93, 111.72, 112.50.
 
Trading tips
 
Buy positions can be opened above 110.93 with target at 111.72, 112.50 and stop-loss at 110.50. 
Sell positions may be opened from 110.15 with targets at 109.37, 108.59 and stop-loss at 110.60. 
Implementation period: 3-5 days.
 
53a1e3424b2a82901145bdc112cc860b-full.pn

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#464
MikhailLF

MikhailLF

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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis
 
Current trend
 
Yesterday the pair moved in different directions: poor June US employment market data affected it negatively, but as the tough rhetoric did not develop after the US-China trade taxes implementation, USD did not fall further.
On Monday, ECB officials commented on the current economic situation. The head of the regulator, Mario Draghi in the European Parliament noted the growing role of protectionism in the world trade and expressed hope for EU consumer prices growth. In Zurich, ECB board member Ewald Nowotny expressed his fear that the US-China trade war could turn into a currency one. Earlier, the head of the People's Bank of China Yi Gang claimed the intention not to use the Yuan as a weapon in trade disputes, but the market was not satisfied.
Today, the traders focus on EU and German ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment release, which is expected to decline: from –16.1 to –18.0 points in Germany and from 12.6 to –13.2 points in EU. The growth of pessimism is due to EU, China and the USA trade conflict.
 
Support and resistance
 
The price grew above 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]) and can move to 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8]), tested in May. A breakdown of the middle line of Bollinger bands around 1.1650 will let the price return to 1.1540. Indicators’ readings are ambiguous. Stochastic reverses in the overbought zone. MACD histogram is ready to enter the positive zone and form a buy signal.
Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1962.
Support levels: 1.1718, 1.1650, 1.1540.
 
Trading tips
 
Long positions can be opened from 1.1780 with the target at 1.1840 and stop loss at the level of 1.1740.
Short positions can be opened below 1.1650 with the target at 1.1540 and the stop loss around 1.1690.
Implementation period: 3–5 days.
 
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#465
MikhailLF

MikhailLF

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LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general review
 
Current trend 
 
At the beginning of the week, the pair sharply corrected to the area of 1.3183 (Murrey [4/8]), as a result of permutations in the British government. 
Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson left office. They protested against the new plan by Theresa May, according to which a free trade area with uniform rules for industrial and agricultural goods, subject to European trade rules, should be established between the EU and Great Britain.
Currently, the pair has ambiguous dynamics. GBP is under pressure by weak statistics on the volume of industrial production. The value of the indicator YoY grew by 0.8% with the forecast of 1.9%, and MoM it dropped by 0.4%. 
USD is under pressure after the US administration announced plans to introduce a new 10% duty on Chinese goods totaling USD 200B, which may enter into force on August 30. The Chinese authorities called this step of the US totally unacceptable and threatened with retaliatory measures and proceedings within the WTO.
 
Support and resistance
 
The price is testing the level of 1.3244 (Murrey [5/8]), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of price growth to 1.3183 (Murrey [4/8]), 1.3122 (Murrey [3/8]). The key for the "bulls" is the level of 1.3305 (Murrey [6/8]). If it is broken out, the growth to 1.3366 (Murrey [7/8]) and 1.3427 (Murrey [8/8]) is possible. 
Technical indicators show the decline development. Stochastic has reversed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone.
Support levels: 1.3244, 1.3183, 1.3122.
Resistance levels: 1.3305, 1.3366.
 
Trading tips
 
Sell positions may be opened below 1.3244 with targets at 1.3183, 1.3122 and stop-loss at 1.3280. 
Buy positions can be opened above the level of 1.3305 with target at 1.3366, 1.3427 and stop-loss at 1.3260. 
Implementation period: 3-5 days.
 
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#466
MikhailLF

MikhailLF

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LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: general analysis
 
Current trend
 
This week the pair was growing, and by now it has reached the level of 112.40. The investors are focused on the US-China trade war. The government of Japan, represented by Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, has already expressed concern about its escalation. China and the United States are the largest trading partners of the country, and last year the export of Japanese goods in these directions amounted to $300 billion. The decline in the economic growth of the US and China could affect Japanese exporters negatively. According to experts, the consequences of the trade war are likely to come in the next year, and the country's economy may lose 0.6%.
On Thursday, investors are waiting for the publication of June inflation data in the US. It is expected that the Consumer Price Index (YoY) may reach 2.9%, and Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) will reach 2.3%. Thus, the basic indicator of inflation may remain above the target level (2.0%) for the fourth consecutive month. However, despite good economic results, FOMC members can reduce the number of rate increases this year, primarily due to the deepening trade US-China crisis.
 
Support and resistance
 
The price is now reaching the level of 112.50 (the upper border of the Murrey range [8/8]), where a reversal and correction to the levels 111.72 (Murrey [7/8]) and 110.93 (Murrey [6/8]) are possible. The price breaking the upper line of Bollinger bands and Stochastic entering the overbought zone confirm the forecast. The further growth is possible only if the price consolidates above the level of 112.50, in this case, the “bullish” targets will be 114.06 (Murrey [+2/8]).
Resistance levels: 112.50, 114.06.
Support levels: 111.72, 110.93, 110.15.
 
Trading tips
 
Short positions can be opened at the level of 112.50 with the targets at 111.72, 110.93 and stop loss at the level of 112.80.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 113.00 with the target at 114.06 and stop loss around 112.70.
Implementation period: 3–5 days.
 
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