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Date : 18th November 2019.

Events to Look Out For Next Week 18th November 2019.


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Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing on all the key financial events globally. The week ahead is expected to reveal a healthy housing sector in the US, while Canadian data could clear the way for BoC. Eurozone’s PMI are also on tab.

Monday – 18 November 2019

  • ECB Financial Stability Review (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Financial Stability Review provides an overview of potential risks to financial stability in the Euro Area.

Tuesday – 19 November 2019

  • Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The RBA minutes, similar to the ECB Reports, provide a detailed assessment of the bank’s most recent policy-setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision. They are usually a cause for FX turbulence.
  • Housing starts and Building Permits (USD, GMT 13:30) – The September decline in starts reflected weakness in multi-family components, mainly led in the Northeast and Midwest, alongside small declines in the south and west. Permits have shown a solid growth path through Q3 alongside strength in starts, suggesting a likely solid path for both measures through Q4. Housing starts should rebound to a 1.285 mln pace in October, after the dip in September. Permits similarly are expected to rebound to 1.370 mln in October.

Wednesday – 20 November 2019

  • Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The PBoC is not expected to change its interest rates, at 4.2%.
  • Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A) –The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee.
  • Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The Canadian CPI for October is expected to have come out higher than last month, at 2.1% from 1.9% in September, after the 0.1% dip in August, as declines in gasoline prices and tuition costs weighed. The CPI added to the backing for no change in rates from the BoC in October.
  • Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 19:00) – The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate changes.

Thursday – 21 November 2019

  • ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 1:30) –The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, provide information with regards to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions. In the last ECB meeting, ECB kept policy settings on hold at Draghi’s last meeting, as widely expected after the comprehensive easing package announced in September.
  • Philly Fed Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – The Philly Fed index is seen rising to 7.0 from 5.6 in October, versus a 1-year high of 21.8 in July and a 33-month low of -4.1 in February. The “soft data” measures have largely stabilized since June around moderate levels, though with a headline from the UAW-GM strike in recent months that seemed to have impacted some surveys but not others. The trade war headwind may subside somewhat in November, though the markets still face a wide array of troubles abroad.

Friday – 22 November 2019

  • Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German Q3 GDP expanded 0.1% q/q – boosted by consumption. Germany not just missed a technical recession, the economy actually expanded slightly in the third quarter, as Q2 was revised down. However, we expect no turnaround yet for the final Q3 GDP, despite the higher headline rate, as the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside.
  • Markit Services and Composite PMIs (EUR, GMT 08:30-09:00) – The prelim. EU Markit PMI Indices are expected to continue above 50, but slightly decline to 51.9 and 50.3 respectively, according to consensus expectations. As for Manufacturing PMI, in November a slight improvement is expected at 46.0, even though the headline rate remains in contraction territory.
  • Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Retail Sales are forecasted to have registered a flat outcome in Canada, after mild declines of 0.1% in August.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 20th November 2019.

FX Update – 20th November 2019.


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EURUSD, H1
The Dollar and Yen have firmed up amid a risk-off turn in global markets as tensions between the US and China bubble up. The US Senate yesterday passed a bill in support of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protesters, to which Beijing responded sharply, accusing Washington of being ignorant of “facts and truths” while threatening retaliation for interfering with what it sees as its internal affairs. This comes with little sign of the long since tabled, and unambitious, “Phase 1” partial trade deal coming to fruition. Sources cited by Reuters report that US President Trump is wanting deeper concessions from China in return for making a full roll back of tariffs and cancelling additional tariffs scheduled to take effect on 15 December.

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Against this backdrop, the Yen has seen its risk premium rise, albeit moderately so. USDJPY ebbed to a six-day low at 108.35, with the Japanese currency outperforming an otherwise firm Dollar. EURJPY posted a six-day low, and other Yen crosses also declined. The narrow trade-weighted USD Index printed a two-day high at 97.93, putting in some distance from the 15-day low seen on Monday at 97.68. EURUSD concurrently saw a two-day low at 1.1055, and Cable a three-day low at 1.2888, with last night’s General Election debate seen as a “draw” but with the Conservatives coming under criticism for misleading the public after it rebranded one of its Twitter accounts to “factcheckUK”.

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Sharp declines in oil prices, where concerns of a supply glut have run into concerns about the US-China situation, have driven underperformance in the Canadian Dollar, lifting USDCAD to a near six-week high at 1.3296. The pair is up nearly 1% from yesterday’s lows. USOil futures have dropped by 4% over the last two days, yesterday posting the biggest one-day tumble in seven weeks and testing $55.00. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars are also lower, though by a lesser extent, and most developing-nation currencies are softer.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst

HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

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Date : 21st November 2019.

Equities continue lower ahead of ECB – 21st November 2019.


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Equities continue lower ahead of ECB – Stock markets head south on trade deal doubts, while a risk-off, or at least a risk-wary sentiment looks likely to prevail, which could keep safe-haven currencies, primarily the JPY and USD, underpinned, The high beta currencies such as the Dollar bloc and many developing-world currencies are under pressure.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 25th November 2019.

Events to Look Out For Next Week 25th November 2019.


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Its a short but also busy week, as the Thanksgiving holiday will keep US markets close on Thursday and partially on Friday. From a data perspective, it will definitely be an eventful week with Wednesday and Thursday being the most data-heavy days with US GDP and Durable Goods, and Inflation releases from Europe and Tokyo.

Monday – 25 November 2019

  • German IFO Business Climate (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. November numbers are expected to show a decline in business climate.

Tuesday – 26 November 2019

  • CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 15:00) – The Consumer confidence is expected to rebound to 128.0 in November from 125.9 in October, versus an 8-month high of 135.8 in July, a 16-month low of 121.7 seen as recently as January, and an 18-year high of 137.9 last October. The present situation index is anticipated to dip to 169.0 from 172.3 in October, versus a 19-year high of 176.0 in August. The expectations index should rise to 100.6 in November from 94.9 in October, versus an 18-year high of 115.1 in October of 2018. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high.

Wednesday – 27 November 2019

  • Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30) – The Q3 GDP growth is expected to be boosted to 2.1% from 1.9%. The revised Q3 data will still depict a quarter with a wide gap between solid consumption growth but contracting business fixed investment in the face of trade uncertainty, slowing growth abroad, disruptions from the Boeing 737 MAX grounding, and the UAW-GM strike.
  • Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 0.3% gain is seen in personal income in October after a 0.3% increase in September, alongside a 0.4% rise in consumption that follows a 0.2% September gain.
  • Durable Goods (USD, GMT 13:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to fall -1.5% in October with a -4.4% drop in transportation orders, after a -1.2% headline orders drop in September, and a 0.2% uptick in August. Boeing orders fell to just 10 planes in October from 25 in September. A continued headwind from problems with the Boeing 737 Max and disruptions from the UAW-GM strike have prompted buyers to delay new orders and vehicle assemblies to fall to an 8-year low pace.

Thursday – 28 November 2019

  • United States – Thanksgiving Day – US closed.
  • Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 13:00) – The German HICP inflation could slip to -0.6% m/m for November from 0.1% m/m. The annualized outcome is expected to remain unchanged at 0.9% y/y.
  • Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to remain at 0.4% y/y core in November, and to slip at 0.4% y/y ex Fresh Food. Industrial Production should post a 1.9% growth y/y in October, compared to 1.3% last month.

Friday – 29 November 2019

  • United States – Thanksgiving Day – US early closed at 13:00.
  • Unemployment Rate (EUR, GMT 08:55) – Unemployment numbers are probably nearly as important as the GDP growth figure. German unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged in the annual basis however unemployment change for November is expected to decline to 2K from 6K.
  • Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The Euro Area flash CPI for November is forecasted to rise slightly, at 0.9% y/y from 0.7% y/y last month while core is seen at 1.2% y/y from 1.1% y/y.
  • Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – A sharp slowing in Canada’s real GDP growth rate to 1.2% (q/q, saar) is expected in Q3 following the surge in Q2 growth to a 3.7% clip that was driven by temporary factors. This will add to the backing for a near term rate cut for the Bank of Canada.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 26th November 2019.

Equities continue lower ahead of ECB – 26th November 2019.


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Risk-on runs on – European stock markets are slightly lower in opening trade, as the stock markets run out of steam after the rally seen yesterday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 2nd December 2019.

Events to Look Out For Next Week 2nd December 2019.


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Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally. Following another cautious week, after trade jitters and the prospect of further protests in Hong Kong weighed on sentiment, two interest rate decisions and NFP data stand out in the announcement schedule next week. The US-China trade tensions, upcoming UK elections and OPEC meeting in Vienna continue to dominate the week.

Monday – 02 December 2019

  • Building Permits (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Building permits are a known leading indicator of the housing and the overall market. Following the moderatıon of decline in dwelling approvals in September for Australia, it will be interesting to observe whether permits will increase or pullback once again. The consensus for October is at -4.0% m/m, compared to the spike at 7.6% last month.
  • Manufacturing PMIs (EUR, GBP, USD, GMT 08:55-14:45) – The UK manufacturing PMI is expected to hold below neutral at 48.1. The Euro Area PMI is expected to remain at the same levels as last month, at 46.6 and German number at 43.8, while the US ISM PMI in November is expected to increase to 50.5 compared to 48.3. The sentiment surveys have been erratic in recent months likely due to competing perspectives on the trade war, troubles abroad, and stock price gyrations.

Tuesday – 03 December 2019

  • Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 03:30) – No surprises are expected even though in the last RBA statement Governor Lowe admitted that there are downside risks and admitted that the bank could ease again if necessary. He also suggested that previous easing steps are already supporting the economy and while the bank is monitoring developments there was nothing to signal immediate moves.

Wednesday – 04 December 2019

  • Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Third quarter GDP for Australia is expected to have settled at 1.4% y/y.
  • Employment Data (USD, GMT 13:15) – US ADP Employment Change is anticipated to grow by 138K in November from 125K last month.
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to rise to 55.0 in November from 54.7 in October. Sentiment has received ongoing support, however, from tight labor markets, high consumer confidence levels, and firm GDP and consumption growth. We should see at least some November updraft following the settlement of the UAW-GM strike.
  • Interest Rate Decision (CAD, GMT 15:00) – In October, the Bank of Canada maintained the 1.75% rate setting, matching widespread expectations. However, the announcement was overall dovish and the Bank seems like it has opened the door wide open to a rate cut if the resilience of the domestic economy shows signs of faltering.

Thursday – 05 December 2019

  • OPEC meeting in Vienna
  • Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Third quarter GDP s.a. for Europe is expected to have settled at 0.2% q/q, unchanged from the second quarter.
  • Trade balance (USD, GMT 13:30) – The trade deficit is expected to widen in October to -$53.5 bln from -$52.5 bln in September. The exports are anticipated to hold steady at $206.0 bln, while imports should rise 0.4% to $259.6 bln. Both exports and imports face headwinds from a decline in vehicle trade with the UAW-GM strike, as well as a drop in petroleum prices following the Saudi drone bombing in September.

Friday – 06 December 2019

  • Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 190k November nonfarm payroll rise has been forecasted, following a 128k increase in October. This reflects a November reversal of the UAW-GM strike impact that left a restrained 128k October rise, with an estimated 40k November bounce in factory jobs after the -36k October drop.
  • Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – October employment revealed a 1.8k drop in jobs, contrary to expectations for a measured gain (median 15k), following the 53.7k jump in September. However, the November reading is anticipated to jump back to 15.9K while the unemployment rate is expected to rise as well at 5.6% m/m from 5.5% last month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 4th December 2019.

FX Update – December 4 – Risk Off – 4th December 2019.


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AUDJPY, H1
The Yen has rallied on a safe-haven bid as global stock markets turn lower after President Trump, nearly two months after announcing the limited “Phase 1” trade deal with China, said that trade negotiations may be postponed until after the 2020 presidential election. This after announcing intentions to tariff steel imports from Brazil and Argentina. Disappointing Q3 GDP out of Australia, a country that is highly exposed to the US-China trade, was also in the mix. Growth came in at 0.4% q/q in the antipodean economy, against a median of 0.5%. USDJPY printed a 13-day low at 108.43, while EURJPY and AUDJPY descended into respective one-week low territory and is the biggest moving pair today, down some -0.6%. The Australian Dollar has been the day’s biggest loser out of the main currencies. AUDUSD more than reversed gains seen yesterday on the less dovish than expected RBA statement, in making a low of 0.6814. The AUDJPY triggered lower yesterday on the Crossing EMA Strategy, H1 at 13:00 GMT (1) move down to T1 (2), retraced to Entry (3) to close T2 flat. It then triggered lower again (4) and moved to T1 (5) and T2 (6) for a net move of 47 pips for both legs lower.

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The Dollar, outside the case of USDJPY, has held firm, finding its own safe haven bid. The sharpest in six months drop in the U.S. 10-year T-note yield yesterday was a reflection of this safe haven bid, which is why forex markets haven’t been trading on yield differential dynamics in the latest phase. Both EURUSD and Cable both drifted moderately lower, before a bid on Sterling saw cable breach 1.3000 and trade over 1.3040 and post a new six month high. Elsewhere, EURCHF has dropped for a third consecutive trading day, this time hitting a three-week low at 1.0923. The decline in the cross have correlated with the prevailing risk-off phase that started at Friday’s release of disappointing U.S. manufacturing ISM data.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 6th December 2019.

Happy Non-Farm Friday – 6th December 2019.


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Happy Non-Farm Friday – The Dollar majors have remained comfortably within their respective ranges from yesterday, ahead of trade talks, NFP and the OPEC+ decision.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 9th December 2019.

Events to Look Out For Next Week 9th December 2019.

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*Following the OPEC meeting this week and the  surprisingly strong US payroll data, three interest rate decisions are scheduled next week. Other than Central Banks, the event of the week is the UK Parliamentary Election on Thursday.

Monday – 09 December 2019

* RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 22:05) – Due to speak at the AusPayNet Summit, in Sydney.

Tuesday – 10 December 2019

* Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – September’s Chinese CPI is seen unchanged at 0.7% while the PPI figure is expected to decline further to -1.2%. The overall reading for CPI is estimated to post a gain up to 2.9% y/y.

* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Economic Sentiment for October is projected at -27 from the -22.5 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though is expected to decline slightly further to -33.0 from -22.4. A lower than expected outcome, ties in with the stagnation in market sentiment at the start of the month.

Wednesday – 11 December 2019

* Inflation Rate (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 0.2% November headline CPI rise is expected with a 0.2% core price increase, following respective October readings of 0.4% and 0.2%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y increase of 2.0%, up from 1.8% last month. Core prices should set a 2.3% pace for a second consecutive month. We expect an up-tilt in y/y gains into Q1 of 2020 due to harder comparisons and some lift from tariff increases that should leave gains in the 2.4% area, which may help ease concerns about persistent inflation undershoots of the Fed’s 2% objective. 

* Interest Rate decision and conference (USD, GMT 19:00) – The FOMC is widely seen on hold even after the robust payroll data, with no shift in rate policy for the foreseeable future. Indeed, the data validated the pause and left policymakers in a state of Fed Nirvana, at least for now. Fed Chair Powell will reiterate the economy and policy are in a “good place.” There is little risk of any downside “material changes” in the outlook anytime soon given the solid path for jobs growth. And, GDP will likely continue to modestly outpace the official Fed estimates, just as a benign inflation trajectory caps risk of rate hikes from the Fed as well. Hence, the focus will be on the Fed’s quarterly forecast update (SEP) and Chair Powell’s press conference. 

Thursday- 12 Decemmber 2019

* Parliamentary Election – Brexit will be a focal point with the December 12 election. While the Conservative party with a working majority is the clear odds-on favourite outcome of the election, the outcome of the general election is by no means a sure-fire certainty, however, especially in light of the predictive failures of pollsters and betting markets at elections in the UK and elsewhere in recent years.

* SNB Interest Rate Decision and Conference (EUR, GMT 08:30) – The central bank is widely expected to keep policy settings unchanged as ongoing uncertainty on the global growth outlook, along with weakness in the Eurozone economy, support the view that the central bank’s negative interest rate and the threat of ad hoc currency interventions remain necessary to keep the franc under control, and prevent inflation from falling. The central bank has kept the door to additional measures open as it keeps a close eye on geopolitical trade tensions and Brexit developments.

* ECB Interest Rate Decision and Conference (EUR, GMT 12:45 &13;30) – Lagarde’s first press conference. The “risk” is that it will be equally uneventful as her testimony before the European Parliament. It is very likely on Thursday, to be confirmed that: The ECB remains ready to act again and tweak all its measures if necessary, but has already done a lot and now needs to keep an eye on the side effects of the very expansionary monetary policy, while politicians need to do their bit to support the economy.The ECB won’t be reducing the degree of stimulus any time soon and we effectively see the central bank on hold through next year, unless there is a major change in circumstance.

Friday – 13 December 2019

* Retail Sales and Industrial Production (USD, GMT 13:30) – A gain is expected up to 0.3% November for both the retail sales headline and the ex-auto figures, following a 0.3% October headline with a 0.2% ex-auto figure. There’s considerable uncertainty, however, given seasonal distortions around the holidays, especially including Black Friday and Cyber Monday swings, and with six fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 10th December 2019.

FX Update – NZD & GBP remain Bid – 10th December 2019.


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NZD & Sterling

The New Zealand Dollar posted a fresh four-month high versus the Australian Dollar, while NZDUSD and NZDJPY saw two-day highs. A shift in RBNZ policy expectations and an associated rise in NZ yields have been underpinning the kiwi. The 10-year US T-note yield advantage relative to the NZ 10-year yield has narrowed by some 15 bps since late November. It is expected that this trend will taper out at some point, as RBNZ monetary policy is historically sensitive to movements in the currency. The longest rallying kiwi pair is the NZDCAD which is now in its 29th day and 280 pips (4.6 x ATR) north of the key 20-day simple moving average, 19 days over the 50-day moving average and 6 days over the important long term 200-day moving average and psychological 0.8600. Next Resistance is R3 and the upper Bollinger band at 0.8750. MACD and RSI both remain positive.

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Elsewhere in the forex realm, most dollar pairings and associated cross rates have remained in narrow ranges, holding within respective Monday ranges in thinned-out year-end conditions. EURUSD has remained particularly directionally challenged, seeing less than a 10-pip range during the Asia-Pacific session until the entry of the London interbank market. USDJPY managed a 12-pip range. The stellar US jobs report of last Friday has had little lasting impact on the Dollar. Markets seem non-committal, partly due to seasonal considerations and partly amid a certain anxiety ahead of the weekend’s deadline for the US to hike tariffs on a further $160 bln worth of Chinese goods. A delay in this deadline is possible, if a phase-1 deal fails to come to fruition, while an implementation of the new tariffs would mark an escalation in the trade war and cause a significant risk-off response in illiquid year-end global markets.

[IMG]

Sterling has settled after rallying yesterday, unaffected by the slight dip in GDP and the worse than expected trade balance, Cable holds the 1.3150 pivot point. Markets have factored in a Conservative victory with an outright majority at Thursday’s UK general election, based on public opinion polling, though political pundits have been stressing that undecided votes are making this election tricky to call. Polls have suggested most undecided voters are people who voted for Labour in 2017, suggesting there is a possibility for an unexpectedly strong showing for Labour, however, the surge in tactical voting to prevent a Johnson majority is difficult to calculate, and there have been no clear signs of this. The key YouGov MRP opinion poll will be updated later today; last time (November 27) it predicted a Conservative majority of 67 seats.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 11th December 2019.

FOMC Preview – 11th December 2019.

image_2019_08_07T14_36_59_194Z-696x364.j

FOMC Preview

No policy changes or surprises are expected with today’s announcement (19:00 GMT) and Chair Powell’s press conference 30 minutes later. It will be interesting to see if, as expected, the voting is unanimous this time round. The FOMC members have expressed significant differences of opinion during 2019 as three rate cuts were implemented.  The apparent paradox of low unemployment and low inflation, the new “norm”.

The two-digit unemployment rate (U-3) in November edged down to 3.53% from 3.56% in October, and a 3.52% cycle-low in September, all below the 3.58% prior cycle-low in April and a 4.00% rate at the beginning of the year. Current readings remain much lower than the 4.2% long-run unemployment rate projection noted in the September SEP, it is expected that this estimate will be trimmed today.

Headline CPI rose 0.4% in October while the core index rose by 0.2%, for respective y/y gains of 1.8% and 2.3%, versus September figures of 1.7% and 2.4%. Today the November headline is expected to fall again to 0.2% and the core remains flat at 0.2% too. The Fed’s favoured inflation gauge, the PCE chain price measure, rose 1.3% y/y in October and expectations are for an uptick to 1.4% in November. The core PCE chain price measure rose 1.6% y/y in November, versus 1.7% in September, and expectations are for the pace to hold at 1.6% in November. The FOMC’s latest median estimates for 2019 inflation are 1.5% for the headline and 1.8% for the core.

Hence, the focus will be on the Fed’s new quarterly forecasts, with expectations raised and likely to be mostly bullish results with a bump up in the median growth projection and a drop in the median dot to reflect a steady stance through 2020. However, the individual dots are likely to show both, forecasts for cuts and hikes. Chair Powell is expected to reiterate the US economy and policy are in a “good place,” (a phrase he has used a number of times lately) and could sound a little more upbeat after the strong jobs report. But, he will continue to warn of downside risks. The FOMC isn’t likely to announce any new measures on reserve management operations (QE?) or a repo facility. All steady into 2020 and beyond.

2019-12-11_11-59-22-768x601.jpg

USDIndex remains biased to the down side but has support around 97.40 and the 200-day moving average. A breach of this key support zone brings in 97.00 and the October low of 96.85. A break over 97.80 (the confluence of the 20 and 50-day moving averages) and 98.00 would be required before a re-test of the recent high at 98.50 could be considered.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 12th December 2019.

Lagarde prepares ECB debut – 12th December 2019.


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  • Policy unchanged
  • Projections unlikely to change much
  • Clues about review sought
  • Style in focus

Presiding over her first presser of the European Central Bank today, Lagarde is expected to confirm once again the current policy setting, giving time to ECB to focus on the planned review of its overall policy framework.

Final Eurozone GDP and PMI readings broadly supported this neutral picture, while the confidence that a deep recession can be avoided is strengthening (Figure 1) despite the fact that German manufacturing and production numbers still look weak. The exports and the overall trade are actually holding up much better than expected, which together with still strong labour markets is underpinning hopes the net exports and consumption will continue to support growth not just in Germany.

[IMG]
Figure 1 : December German ZEW investor confidence outcome, end the year firmly in positive territory at the highest level since February 2018.
As there is nothing in the data really to challenge the ECB’s overall policy stance, the focus firstly turns into the tone and presentation style that President Lagarde will have. The “risk” is that the presser will be equally uneventful as her testimony before the European Parliament. Lagarde’s team building exercise seems to have worked and at least in public there has been a pretty consistent message since she took over, which is very likely to be confirmed today. Additionally it will be interesting to see whether she will back fully Draghi’s package.

Citi Bank: All key interest rates will likely be left unchanged, and the forward guidance reaffirmed. The main interest at this meeting will be the new Eurosystem staff projections, extended to 2022, to gauge whether the September package will be sufficient to bring inflation back into line with the ECB’s target over the forecast horizon. If not, investors’ attention will quickly turn to the ECB’s toolbox and what instruments the Governing Council would be willing to use and when, in order to defend its credibility in the absence of large fiscal support. The upcoming strategic review of monetary policy will also likely be the focus of many questions.

Hence as reported by Citi, other than Lagarde’s style, ECB projections could also monopolize the attention. Even though, the ECB remains ready to act again and tweak all its measures if necessary, it has already done a lot and now needs to keep an eye on the side effects of the very expansionary monetary policy, while politicians need to do their bit to support the economy.

The central bank won’t be reducing the degree of stimulus any time soon with many analysts supporting that this will continue until mid-2020 unless there is a major change in circumstance.

Central bankers will be conducting a comprehensive review of the policy framework, however, with a special focus on the inflation target. A more symmetric definition, which stresses that the ECB can see through lengthy inflation overshoots as well as periods of too low headline rates is likely to come in the first quarter of next year. The inclusion of owner-occupied housing costs into the HICP number also remains a challenge especially as house prices are rising rapidly in some centres, also thanks to the low interest rate environment.

[IMG]

Bund yields have nudged higher over the past week, but the German 10-year so far failed to move lastingly above -0.3%. Uncertainty on trade and Brexit are keeping a lid on yields, although there is the risk that if things go the way markets want and a phase one trade deal is confirmed and in the UK PM Johnson gets his majority, there could be a sharp rise in yields, if markets price out further easing and start to look ahead to central banks removing some of the stimulus.

However this is far away for now, while central bankers are not looking eager to add further easing.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 13th December 2019.

Two Fundamental Strategies – 13th December 2019.


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An in-depth discussion on how the various assets on the global markets interact with each other and how understanding the nature of these interactions can help traders gauge risk! Join our market analyst, Andria, for a demonstration on:

Commodity prices
Bond spreads
How the two could provide an effective way to discover trends in the market.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

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Date : 16th December 2019.

Events to Look Out For Next Week 16th December 2019.


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Following a busy week ending with a Conservative victory in the UK election and rising hopes of a potential trade deal between UK and China, attention turns to the BoJ, PBoC and BoE monetary policy meetings next week. However, the developments on the US-China trade front will remain front and centre.

Monday – 16 December 2019

  • Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08-30-09:00) – The prel. November manufacturing PMI was revised up to 46.9 from 46.6, despite the signs that the weakness in manufacturing is starting to spread. The European PMI for December meanwhile is expected to released at 47.4.
  • Manufacturing PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The UK PMI is expected to register an upwards reading to 50.7 after the upwards revision last week at 48.9.

Tuesday – 17 December 2019

  • RBA Meeting’s Minutes (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The RBA minutes provides a detailed assessment of the bank’s most recent policy-setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision. They are usually a cause for FX turbulence.
  • Employment and Earnings (GBP, 09:30) – Average earnings are expected to have increased by 3.8% in October, above the 3.6% the previous month. The ILO unemployment rate (3M) for October could rise at 3.9% from 3.8%.

Wednesday – 18 December 2019

  • German IFO (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The German Business Sentiment Index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. December’s numbers are expected unchanged.
  • Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The UK inflation is seen unchanged to the downside in December, at 1.5% y/y, the lowest rate seen since November 2016 and after 1.7% in September. The core should be steady as well at 1.7%.
  • Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Prices are expected to have eased slightly in December, with overall inflation expected to remain at 1% y/y, while core inflation at 1.3% y/y.
  • Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The overall Canadian CPI and core should hold close to target, while the November Core outcome is expected to slip to -0.2% following the 0.4% jump in October.

Thursday – 19 December 2019

  • Interest Rate Decision and Conference (JPY, GMT 03:00) – In the last meeting, BoJ kept its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and its pledge to guide 10-year JGB yields around 0% while maintaining its asset buying program. The central bank signaled its commitment to keep interest rates at current levels “for an extended period of time, at least through around spring 2020”. BoJ Governor said in his statement that cutting rates further are a possible policy option, adding that he doesn’t think that Japan is near the reversal rate. He also said that he doesn’t think the BoJ needs to change the forward guidance now. Hence this is likely to remain the scenario in this week’s Monetary Policy Statement.
  • Interest Rate Decision (GBP, GMT 12:00) – BoE should remain on hold until Brexit has been resolved. Thus, consensus forecasts suggest no change in the policy rate in this meeting, however an uTwo of the nine-member MPC dissented in favour of cutting the repo rate by 25 bps

Friday – 20 December 2019

  • Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30) – A Q3 GDP growth is expected up to 2.2% from 2.1%, with a -$1 bln trimming for factory inventories alongside a $4 bln hike for construction. The Q4 GDP growth estimate sits at 2.4%, with support from recent reports indicating a -4% Q4 drop in imports that adds to GDP, likely firmness in government purchases, a rebounding residential investment sector, and an expected bounce in equipment spending.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 17th December 2019.

Spectre of “No Deal” Brexit Back – 17th December 2019.


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The Pound is down 0.5% on the day against both the Dollar and Euro, and is off by 0.4% versus the Yen. The catalyst was news that UK prime minister Johnson will amend the withdrawal agreement bill to outlaw an extension in the transition period beyond the end of 2020.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 18th December 2019.

FX Update – GBP loses its Johnson Jump – 18th December 2019.

2019-12-18_10-23-34.jpg

GBPUSD, H4

Sterling posted fresh correction lows against the Dollar and Euro, among other currencies. Cable printed a six-day low at 1.3070, and EURGBP a two-week high at 0.8517. This follows UK prime minister Johnson’s revival of the no-deal Brexit threat yesterday, by pledging to modify the EU withdrawal agreement so that it legislates against any extension in the post-Brexit transition period beyond 2020. I doubt he’s serious, and such legislation could easily be reversed at will, given Johnson’s commanding parliamentary majority. His aim is clearly to strengthen his government’s negotiation hand with the EU, by arming it with a “walk away” option during upcoming negotiations for a new trade deal. he has no-doubt concluded that he got agreement on the his new Withdrawal agreement under a pressing timescale and both parties agreed compromises to push the October 12 document through.

What is clear is that a new trade deal should be able to be drawn up relatively quickly, though the 11 months still looks to be a tall order (witness the 17 months it took for the US and China to come up with a partial revision in the two’s trading terms). Unlike all of the other negotiations the EU has to date had with other nations and trading blocs, where they were starting a long way apart (totally different tariffs, quotas and systems), the UK and EU have 100% common features.

A fillip for Johnson was that all the ratings agencies are now more optimistic on the UK after the election. Both S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings improved their assessment of the UK’s credit outlook after Johnson’s Conservative Party won a majority in last week’s election. S&P changed the country outlook to stable from negative, with analysts seeing a diminished risk of a no-deal Brexit. Analysts at S&P said “Despite the government’s current stance, we expect that the UK will seek, and the EU will grant, an extension beyond December 2020 to negotiate the future relationship between the two.” Fitch meanwhile affirmed the AA rating and took the UK off Rating Watch Negative, thus removing the immediate threat of a downgrade, but the rating agency did maintain the negative outlook. S&P affirmed its credit rating of AA/A-1+. Fitch held the country at AA.

Elsewhere, EURCHF carved out a one-week low at 1.0912, though USDCHF managed to hold above the four-month low seen yesterday. EURUSD drifted lower after closing in New York yesterday just above 1.1100, and matched yesterday’s low at 1.1129. USDJPY edged out a two-day low at 109.41, which was lower mark of a 15-pip range. AUDUSD traded moderately softer, though remained above yesterday’s one-week at 0.6838, which was seen in the wake of the release of RBA minutes from the early-December policy, which showed that policymakers are open for a possible further cut in the cash rate at the next meeting in February.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 19th December 2019.

FX Update & BOC Preview – 19th December 2019.


[IMG]

GBPUSD, H1

The Dollar has traded moderately softer in thinning year-end markets. This has seen the narrow trade-weighted USD Index (DXY) ebb to a low of 97.30, down from the one-week high seen yesterday at 97.47.

[IMG]

A rebound in Cable has weighed on the US currency, with Sterling finding a footing after plunging by nearly 3.5% from last week’s post-UK election rally high at 1.3515. Cable’s low yesterday was 1.3060, and the pair has since recovered to the lower 1.3100s, though still remains over half a big figure below the levels that were prevailing ahead of the election.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee has amid its final meeting of the year, and will announce at 12:00 GMT in London today. No change to prevailing settings is widely anticipated, though there will be a focus on the two dissenters, Saunders and Haskell, who last month voted for a 25 bps cut in the repo rate, to see if they will maintain their dovish dissent in light of the strong victory of the Conservative Party at last week’s election. Either way, we expect the BoE to remain on a neutral footing heading into 2020, though, with inflation running at three-year lows at 1.5% y/y, comfortably below target, the BoE won’t be in any rush shift to a tightening bias.

[IMG]

Elsewhere in forex markets, EURUSD lifted out of the one-week low seen yesterday at 1.1100, but remains mired in narrow ranges in what is now the sixth consecutive session trading on a 1.11 handle. USDJPY has also continued to ply narrow ranges, pivoting through though the pair still managed to scratch out a six-day high at 109.68, which is 2 pips shy of the 17-day high seen last Friday, and 4 pips shy of the seven-month peak seen on December 2. The Australian dollar recovered the losses seen following the wake of the RBA minutes on Tuesday following an above-forecast 39.9k gain in employment, along with an unexpected dip in the jobless rate to 5.2%, from 5.3%. AUDUSD posted a two-day high at 0.6883 moving some 0.42% during the Asian session.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 20th December 2019.

FX Update – Holiday Consolidation– 20th December 2019.


[IMG]

USDJPY, H4
Narrow ranges have continued to be the norm as markets wind down into the Christmas and New Year holiday period. EURUSD has mustered a less than 10-pip range so far today, holding in the lower 1.1100s in what is now the seventh consecutive trading day the pair has been trading on a 1.11 handle. USDJPY has managed a 15-pip range, with the base marked at 109.25. The pair is consolidating below the seven-month high at 109.72 seen in early December, which is the culmination of a rally from the late-August low at 104.45, a three-year low. Rallying global equity markets and a pricing out of Fed easing expectations have been keeping USDJPY buoyant.

[IMG]

While equity markets have settled today, the USA500 yesterday hit a sixth-straight record high, which is the longest streak since January 2018. All three major US indexes posted new record closing highs yesterday. The Santa Rally has certainly come to life this year, The gains came after US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the US and China would sign their Phase-1 trade deal trade pact in early January, and the US House of Representatives having approved the new North American trade deal.

[IMG]

Elsewhere among currencies, the Australian Dollar managed fresh highs, building on gains seen after yesterday’s above-forecast Australian jobs report. AUDUSD printed a one-week high at 0.6900. The Pound has found a footing after tumbling to fresh lows against the Dollar just after the London book closing yesterday. Cable posted a 16-day low at 1.2989, since recouping back above 1.3000, though set to close out today with its biggest weekly loss in just over two years.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 23rd December 2019.

Events to Look Out For Next Week 23rd December 2019.


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Brexit is finally getting underway and global trade talks progressing in this final weeks of 2019. Although, the risk around these events has been trimmed, ample uncertainties remain, leaving scope to further whipsaw markets into the new year.

Holiday-thinned staffing in Europe, Asia and the US in the middle of the week ahead will severely curtail trade, though what this means for volatility is anyone’s guess.

Monday – 23 December 2019

  • Leading and Coincident Index (JPY, GMT 05:00) – The indices are expected to come out unchanged at 91.8.
  • Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The 0.1% gain that is expected for October GDP will keep Canadian GDP growth weak. Canada’s slowing in GDP growth during Q3 matched BoC expectations, in turn not moving the needle on the outlook for no change in rates for an extended period. GDP slumped to a 1.3% rate in Q3 (q/q, saar), identical to the BoC’s 1.3% estimate from the October MPR.
  • BoJ Meeting Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The BoJ minutes, similar to the ECB Reports, provide a detailed assessment of the bank’s most recent policy-setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision. They are usually a cause for FX turbulence.

Tuesday – 24 December 2019

  • Christmas Eve – Early close for Major Markets
  • Durable Goods (USD, GMT 13:30) – Durable Goods is the leading indicator of production in the US. November Durable goods orders are expected to grow 2.4% with a 6.7% bounce in transportation orders, after a 0.5% headline orders increase in October, and a -1.5% decline in September. Boeing orders for planes bounced to 63 in November from 10 in October, with a boost from the Dubai Air Show.

Wednesday – 25 December 2019

  • Christmas Day – Nearly all major Markets closed

Thursday – 26 December 2019

  • Boxing Day – Nearly all major Markets closed – Except US and Japan
  • Tokyo Core CPI (JPY, 23:30) – Tokyo CPI is usually a good proxy for the Japanese economy’s overall inflation rate. In December, the CPI is expected to have stood at 0.6% y/y, the same as in November, even though projections may be revised when Retail Sales are taken into consideration.
  • Retail Sales (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Following a precipitous 14.4% dive in October due to the Japan’s recent sales tax hike, Retail Sales are expected to climb slightly to 4.6% on a m/m basis in November. The overall rate is expected hold lower at 4.6% y/y decline from 7.1% y/y last month.

Friday – 27 December 2019

  • EU Bulletin (EUR, GMT 09:00) – European Central Bank launches a new publication, the Economic Bulletin, to replace the ECB Monthly Bulletin. It is published two weeks after each Governing Council meeting and it contains the statistical data that policymakers evaluate when setting interest rates. The report also provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 24th December 2019.

XAUUSD – Trend towards the end of the year– 24th December 2019.


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XAUUSD, Day – Although gold prices are significantly less volatile, due to the progress of trade negotiations between the US-China since October, however, this morning, gold prices continue rising further to a new high in the month of 1489.57. This followed as USD slight weakness on the disappointing US durable goods released last night. the data were not in line with market expectations while the uncertainty around Brexit and the US-China trade agreement remains.

In the technical perspective, volatility has clearly decreased since the end of October. The gold futures went down to a 3-month low of 1445.55 on 12 November and gradually sideway until the end of November within the lower territory of the downchannel seen since September. In December meanwhile it started moving northwards towards the upper trendline of the channel, which currently retests. Therefore, it is essential to look whether gold prices will be able to break through the upper border of the channel (solid line).
MACD lines meanwhile, have turn in the positive territory since the UK election day last week. A cross of the signal line above neutral zone could confirm the turn of Gold’s outlook into positive in the medium term.

In addition, during the holiday break, it is possible that the price of XAUUSD may be within the sideways framework, as thin trading conditions prevail.

However, during sparse trading, we sometimes see Flash Crash event as participants closing their positions for year’s end, similar to what we saw in the AUDJPY earlier this year. That is assumed to be caused by low trading volumes.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 2nd January 2020.

FX Update – 2020 Day 1 -January 2– 2nd January 2020.


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EURUSD, H1
The Dollar has found a footing after coming under pressure over the Christmas week and earlier this week. Liquidity has picked up, though some centres in Asia have remained closed, including Tokyo (still the most significant Asian market). The narrow trade-weighted USDIndex (DXY) has lifted above 96.50, up from the six-month low seen earlier in the week at 96.36. EURUSD has concurrently ebbed back under 1.1210 after pegging a four-month high at 1.1239 on Tuesday, but holds S1 and the key 1.1200 handle. The US currency is also showing moderate gains against most Asian currencies, including the Yen. USDJPY has lifted to an intraday high at 108.79, up from the three-week low that was seen earlier in the week at 108.47. USDCHF has been the best performing pair so far today, up some 0.41% and back over the key Daily support and psychological level at 0.9700. AUDUSD has also moved down to a key round number and support level at 0.7000.

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Stock markets have opened the new year on a strong footing, aided by the PBoC’s decision, announced yesterday, to trim the reserve requirement ratio for banks and inject some 800 billion Yuan ($114.9 billion) in funds for lending, effective Jan. 6. This followed President Trump saying yesterday that the US-China phase-1 trade deal will be signed on January 15 in Washington. There has been no comment from China. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Stock Index rallied by 0.5%, building on the 5.6% gain that was seen in December. The MSCI’s all-country World Index has remained buoyant after posting a record high on December 27.

Elsewhere in the forex markets, the Pound has started the new year on a soft footing, reversing some of the gains seen over the last week. Brexit is set to happen on January 31, at which point the UK will enter an (at least) 11-month transition phase, during which time the country will remain in the EU’s single market and customs union.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 3rd January 2020.

FX Update – January 3 – Risk Off & Weak EZ Data– 3rd January 2020.

2020-01-03_12-18-06.jpg

EURUSD, H1

The Yen, and to a lesser degree, the Dollar have rallied amid a dash for safe havens following US air strikes that killed the head of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard’s overseas unit. The news also saw gold prices rally by over 1%, and oil prices by over 3%, while stock markets, richly valued after recent gains (Apple shares traded above $300 for the first time yesterday, for instance), declined.

2020-01-03_12-24-49.jpg

Out of the main currencies, AUDJPY has, not surprisingly, been the biggest mover, with the cross showing about a 1% decline soon after the London interbank open. AUDJPY, which has rallied strongly amid the recent risk-on phase in global markets, dove to a two-week low to breach 75.00 and trade at 74.94. The Cross is down by over 2% from the highs seen on Monday. USDJPY plunged under 108.00 to a two-month low, at 107.90, while AUDUSD fell to a two-week low at 0.6935. The New Zealand Dollar, and most developing-world currencies, also declined, while the Canadian Dollar held up relatively well on the back of the rise in oil prices.

2020-01-03_12-56-21-696x595.jpg

Elsewhere, EURUSD and EURJPY fell to respective one- and three-week low, at 1.1152 and 120.35. Cable and GBPJPY hit four- and eleven-day lows respectively. In stock markets, S&P 500 futures are showing a 1% loss after the cash version of the index hit fresh record highs on Wall Street yesterday. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index turned negative after opening strongly, correcting from 18-month highs. In Europe the GER30 trades down some 1.8% at 13,186.

EURUSD came under further pressure, breaching 1.1140,  as German jobless numbers rose 8K, more than anticipated, French inflation jumped to 1.6% y/y in December, from 1.2% y/y in the previous month and Eurozone loan growth decelerated as loans to non-financial corporations declined to 2.6% from 3.1% in October.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst 
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 06th January 2020.

Events to Look Out For Next Week 06th January 2020.


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As we have already entered 2020, with relatively good news in terms of economic growth, the progress on US-China trade, USMCA, Brexit, the fresh Hong Kong protests, ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East and central bank accommodation, will remain inevitably the key events of the year ahead.

Monday – 06 January 2019

  • Markit PMIs (EUR, GBP, USD, GMT 08:55-14:45) – The German but also the overall Eurozone composite PMI reading for December are expected to hold steady. The UK Service PMI meanwhile, is expected to come out at a slightly higher level than last month but to remain below neutral at 49.2. The US Markit services rose to 52.2 in the first release from 51.6 in November and is anticipated to remain unchanged for December.

Tuesday – 07 January 2019

  • Consumer Price Index (CHF, GMT 07:30) – Expectations suggest that Swiss inflation would have flattened at 0% y/y in December, compared to the fall to 0.1% last month. Meanwhile, the SNB downgraded inflation expectations for 2020 and 2021. The 2019 conditional inflation forecast stands at 0.4%, with a 0.1% forecast for 2020 and a 0.5% forecast for 2021.
  • Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The Euro Area preliminary CPI is expected to come out a tad higher at 1.3% y/y in December, while Core is seen unchanged.
  • Trade Balance (USD, GMT 13:30) – The trade deficit is expected to widen in November to -$50.8 bln from -$47.2 bln in October. The exports should rise 0.5% to $208.1 bln, while imports should grow by a larger 1.8% to $258.9 bln.
  • Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The index is expected to rise to 54.5 in December from 53.9 in November and a prior 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September of 2018. Most of the “soft data” measures have oscillated around lean but positive territory since June, though with headline hits to some surveys from the UAW-GM strike that lingered into November.

Wednesday – 08 January 2019

  • Building Permits (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Building permits are a known leading indicator of the housing and the overall market. Following the decline in dwelling approvals in October, it will be interesting to observe whether permits will increase or pullback once again. The consensus for November is at 4.0% m/m, compared to the drift at -8.1% last month.
  • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – The ADP Employment survey is seen at 150k for December following the lean 67k November ADP rise.

Thursday – 09 January 2019

  • Australia’s Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The trade balance in November could spike to 6,100M from 4,502M last month.
  • Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) –One of the restrains for PBOC to ease the monetary policy last year was the rising pork prices, a key component that stoked inflation. Declines in pork prices in December are likely to slow the CPI growth in this period.
  • Unemployment Rate (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The Euro Area unemployment rate is expected to stand at 7.5%, the same as in October.
  • Housing Starts (CAD, GMT 13:15) – Canadian housing starts are expected to remain positive at 205k, slightly stronger than the 201.3k November figure.

Friday – 10 January 2019

  • Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 180k December Non-Farm payroll rise has been forecasted, following a 266k increase in November. The jobless rate should hold steady, average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.1% for a second month in a row. The jobs data face upside risk from firm consumer confidence and a December up-tilt in producer sentiment, but downside risk from the rise in claims through the period of holiday volatility and a lean ADP path.
  • Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The plunge in November employment challenges the BoC’s economic resiliency argument. Employment fell -71.2k after a -1.8k dip in October, contrasting with expectations for a modest recovery, while the unemployment rate jumped to 5.9%. However, the December reading is anticipated to jump back to 20K while the unemployment rate is expected to fall at 5.8% m/m from 5.9% last month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 7th January 2020.

AUD Pressured as tensions persist– 7th January 2020.


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AUDUSD, H1
The Australian Dollar has remained under pressure, despite global stock markets having taken a turn higher as markets reappraise the US versus Iran standoff. A Caixin report saying that China will not increase its annual low-tariff import quotas for US agricultural produce raised doubts with regard to the yet-to-be-signed “phase-1” trade deal. There was also a research note from Citi analysts highlighting that upside Chinese data surprises have been diminishing since mid December. This appeared to weigh on the Aussie, which is widely seen as a liquid China proxy currency.

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AUDUSD dropped just over 0.5% in making a two-week low at 0.6898, while AUDJPY fell by a similar magnitude in making a 26-day low. The pairing and cross are showing respective losses of 1.9% and 1.6% from their closing levels on December 31. Australian OIS is pricing in a 54% probability for the RBA to cut interest rates by 25 bps at its early February policy meeting, up from the around 38% odds that were being factored in late December. Of all the Aussie crosses it is the perky Pound that is the best performer in the London session, up some 0.62% and also printing five-day highs against the Dollar, Euro and Yen today.

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Elsewhere, the Yen weakened against the Dollar and some other currencies, outside the case for AUDJPY, as some of its safe haven premium unwound, though firmed back some in the latest phase. USDJPY lifted to a 108.50 rebound high, up from yesterday’s 107.77 low. The Dollar traded mostly firmer, retracing losses seen yesterday by varying degrees. The narrow trade-weighted USDIndex (DXY) rebounded about half of the drop it saw yesterday in lifting back above 96.75. This saw EURUSD ebb back under the 1.1200 level to trade down to 1.1185.

[IMG]


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 8th January 2020.

FX Update – The Usual Suspects & USDCAD– 8th January 2020.

2020-01-08_11-35-22-696x585.jpg

USDCAD, H1

The Yen surged and then sharply unwound gains in volatile trading during trading in Tokyo. The rally in the Japanese currency was part of a broader dash for safe haven assets and currencies following news that Iran had fired missiles at two US bases in Iraq. The US reported no casualties, and President Trump’s initial tweet responses were notable for the lack of bellicosity, saying that “All is well!” and “So far, so good.” Official Iranian statements were also measured, though warned of  “a painful response” to any further US action, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that “Operation Martyr Soleimani” had only just begun. The more hawkish members of Trump’s Republican party also signalled that Tehran had gravely miscalculated US resolve. Trump said he would make a statement later today, which will be a major focus for markets. More volatility in global markets seems assured given the uncertainty about the situation, although both sides are showing a clear desire to avoid a full-blown war.

2020-01-08_11-55-05-696x648.jpg

The burst of Yen buying drove USDJPY to a three-month low at 107.65 before the pair rebounded to near net unchanged levels in the mid 108.00s. The rebound mirrored a recovery in stock markets in Asia, though most of the indices across the region, while off their lows, have remained firmly in the red. Oil and gold prices also spiked to fresh trend highs before retreating some. EURUSD remained in a narrow range around 1.1150. Sterling ticked moderately higher, but remained within its respective Tuesday ranges against the Dollar and Euro. AUDUSD printed a fresh three-week low at 0.6850 before rebounding back above 0.6880.

2020-01-08_11-48-52-696x397.jpg

USDCAD dropped back below 1.3000 concomitantly with oil prices rising to fresh trend highs following the overnight news. The pairing remained above the three-month low seen on December 31 at 1.2951. The surge in oil prices over the last several months, which has been extended by the flare-up in US-Iran tensions, has been underpinning the Canadian Dollar. USOil is up by some 24% from the lows seen last September. Gains of that magnitude, if sustained, are a big boon to Canada’s terms of trade, hence the correlation between oil prices and the Canadian currency. The Fed’s removing of a forecast for a 25 bps hike in 2020 at its FOMC policy meeting in December has also been weighing on USDCAD, with markets presently discounting about 60% odds for the Fed to cut rates by 25 bps or more by the end of 2020. The pairing looks likely to continue to trade with an overall downside bias. A breach of the 1.2950 support area will bring 1.2900 and even the September 2018 low of 1.2780 into play. A sustained break and breach of 1.3000-50 is required for the pair to move back to the upside. The 20-day moving average and S3 sit at 1.3100.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst 
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 9th January 2020.

Is it time for a correction? 9th January 2020.


[IMG]

Yields moved higher and stock markets bounced back, as investors bought into hopes that the US and Iran will step back from deeper military conflict, despite two rockets exploding near the US Embassy in Baghdad last night.

Fears of an immediate escalation into war in the Mideast have been scaled back for now, following Trump’s address on Iran, although the situation clearly remains fragile. The president said Iran appears to be “standing down”, and made no mention of further US military actions. Iran’s overnight missile attack aimed at US forces in Iraq looked to be more of a face-saving operation than anything, and looks to have gone some way to calm markets.

Indeed, Wall Street has rallied sharply following the speech, while Oil prices have tanked. The risk-back-on reaction has been the main driver of USDJPY strength as well. The pair rose to 109.28 amid a broadly weaker Yen, from near 108.60 earlier.

After crossing the 20- , 50- and 200-day SMA yesterday, the asset looks ready to sustain the bullish sentiment in the near term as today’s move above Wednesday’s peak suggested more positive bias in the short term, even in the case of fading geopolitical tensions.

The key upside level comes at the 6-month high and December’s Resistance at 109.70. Hence it will be interesting to see if there is a break above at the end of the day/week. However, as we have already entered the European session bulls might face some short-term dips in the next few hours as the USDJPY presents overbought signs, with RSI testing the overbought barrier while the candles have been flirting with the upper BB line in the past 5 4-hour sessions. Immediate Support area is at 109.00-109.14.

This said, 109.00 is a key Support level pointing towards a move lower as it will attract sellers getting back in business, while 109.70 is a significant Resistance level pointing towards a switch from a neutral outlook into a positive one in the medium term basis.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 10th January 2020.

FX Update – JPY Weak & NFP Preview10th January 2020.[/B]

[IMG]

USDJPY, H1
The Yen posted fresh lows as global stock markets hit new record highs, (APPLE, the world’s largest company, moved up over 2% to $308 following good iPhone sales in China) while the likes of the Australian Dollar and many developing-nation currencies rallied. USDJPY, now in its fifth consecutive up day, printed a fresh two-week high at 107.60, which is just 12 pips shy of the seven-month high that was seen in early December. A close over 109.50 today would suggest more upside for the pair next week. AUDJPY lifted to a five-day high and was the best performing pair, moving 0.33% and holding over 75.25, having topped at 75.41 and rolled over from its overbought condition at the London open. EURJPY also rose to an eight-day high.

[IMG]

In stock markets, the MSCI All-Country World Index hit a new record high today, which followed the record highs that the three main US indices and the pan-Europe Stoxx 600 Equity Index saw yesterday. Oil prices remained heavy, some 11% down on the high seen just a couple of days ago, with the US and Iran having stepped back from the cliff edge. News that iPhone sales in China rose 18% y/y in December gave tech stocks a boost, while also boding well for US-Sino relations, with China’s Vice Premier Liu, head of Beijing’s trade negotiation team, travelling to Washington next week to sign the phase-1 trade deal with the US.

[IMG]

Elsewhere in the forex markets, the Dollar has traded mixed, leaving the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex (DXY) net unchanged. EURUSD remained settled in a narrow range near 1.1100. The Dollar lost ground to the Australian currency, with AUDUSD lifting to a two-day high at 0.6882 in what is the pair’s first up day of the year so far. Cable remained below the 1.3100 level, while USDCAD settled just above 1.3050, below the two-week high seen yesterday at 1.3104.

[IMG]

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

The release of the US December employment report will be a major focus for markets today. Expectations from the monthly Reuters poll have the median increase for NFP set at 164k with a range extending from 125k – 2266k. However, there is potential downside risk from weak producer sentiment, the rise in claims through the holiday period, and a lean ADP jobs path, even though Wednesday’s number was a significant beat at 202K versus expectations of 150k.

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Date : 14th January 2020.

Optimism pressures Safe Havens while Crypto rallies

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Optimism pressures Safe Havens while Crypto rallies – A fresh injection of risk-on trading saw the Yen decline further and stocks rally overnight after trade data out of China showed a drop in exports to the US last year.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 15th January 2020.

GOLDMAN SACHS and the 4th Quarter of 2019 15th January 2020.


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As Earnings season is kicking off again, focus is on the Banks’ reports this week. JP Morgan, City Group and Wells Fargo published their Q4 2019 reports yesterday before the US market open. JP Morgan and City Group beat expectations strongly, whilst Walls Fargo missed and saw its shares falling over 4% right after the report.

Today, investors’ attention is on whether Bank of America and GS will follow JP Morgan’s success story.

Goldman Sachs is scheduled to release its Q4 and full-year 2019 results before the US market open. In Q3 2019, the bank beat revenue forecasts but missed in earnings, while it posted a decline in Revenue and earnings in comparison with the previous quarter, affected by weakness seen in Investment Banking and Lending. Overall, in the past 2 years it has beaten earning and revenue estimations 88% of the time.

GS , in an attempt to improve its profitability and stock performance, has proceeded with several changes and several restructure and expansion plans for the near future and also the next 5 years. One of their latest projects, which was launched in August, was the development of credit cards with Apple, while they also introduced a long-awaited app last week (January 8), which according to Reuters, ” will integrate with the financial giant’s digital bank, Marcus”. Marcus is Goldman Sachs’s consumer banking unit, which was founded by Goldman Sachs in 2016, named after the bank’s founder Marcus Goldman.

In the long term meanwhile, GS has focused on its request to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). As the China Morning Post stated, GS is one of the US banks which has an official branch in China and has been applying to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) since last August to take majority control of its venture known as Goldman Sachs Gao Hua Securities, seeking to raise its stake to 51% from 33%. The hiring push on the mainland is part of the US bank’s new five-year plan in which Chief Executive David Solomon is looking to improve its profitability and share price performance.

It will be interesting to see whether all the above expansion plans will affect the bank’s earnings report today, but also how they could expand its wealth management business and broaden its revenue streams in 2020.

Zack’s estimates for Q4 Earnings are:

EPS Estimate: $5.20

Sales Estimates:
 

  • Low: 8.70B
  • High: 8.82B
  • Year over Year Growth: 8.37%

Earnings Estimates:
 

  • Low: $4.54
  • High: $5.42
  • Year over Year Growth: -13.91%

Technical overview:

The monthly chart shows the free fall seen on GS shares in 2018 to $151.60 from its all-time high in March 2018 at $275.60. In 2019, shares managed to recover by nearly 78%, as the price moved successfully to $274.64.

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However, in the Daily chart, momentum indicators suggest that positive bias is starting to lose some ground , with OBV indicator unable to move further to the upside, suggesting nearterm weakness. The asset price is still moving upwards, however it’s moving outside the upper Bollinger Bands area, with RSI crossing above 70, both suggesting that the asset looks overbought. This comes in line with OBV. Hence from a technical perspective a correction could be seen in the medium term as the asset is overbought. From the data perspective, positive bias could theoretically strengthen if the upcoming earnings report beats expectations.

Resistance levels: $249, $261, $275

Support levels: $236, $227, $214

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Ahura Chalki
Regional Market Analyst

HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 16th January 2020.

Narrow US trade gap in Q4 – Its meaning and what to expect in 2020? 16th January 2020.


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A drop in the bilateral trade deficit between the US and China in Q4 sharply understates the underlying improvement, thanks to a powerful seasonal pattern in goods trade between the two countries that bloated the Q4 deficit. A plunge is anticipated in the gap to a February trough that should mark the narrowest deficit since 2013.

Though the overall US trade gap will widen in 2020 if the economy grows, phase-one agreement will be followed by news over the coming three months of a collapsing US-China trade deficit.

The US-China trade deficit for goods narrowed sharply last winter to just $20.7 bln in March of 2019 from a peak of $43.1 bln in October of 2018, with a gyration that was exacerbated by tariff front running.

The seasonal widening into Q4 of 2019 failed to occur, while a seasonal narrowing is expected into the Lunar New Year that should prompt a February goods deficit in the $20 bln area — less than half of the peak just 16 months earlier.

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The seasonal pattern is mostly driven by the US import data from China. The unusually large gyration in 2018 was due to tariff front running, which pulled imports ahead into Q4 from Q1. Goods imports appeared to resume their seasonal climb until they reached a $41.5 bln level in July of 2019, leaving an -11.9% shortfall from July of 2018. From their, the seasonal climb oddly ended, and imports fell to just $36.5 bln in November to leave a y/y drop of an enormous -21.6%.

If the seasonal drop now unfolds, imports from China should fall to the $28 bln area by February. The drop will be exacerbated this year by a relatively early Lunar New Year date of January 25.

The seasonal pattern for imports has been quite stable over the years, until the big deviation in the pattern in 2019, which suggests that the atypical seasonal behavior this year is due to the “trade war.”

The seasonal pattern is less stable, and less pronounced, for US goods exports to China, and the pattern of US exports has been fairly erratic over the last year. The dominant pattern over the past two years has been a drop in US exports to China between the start of the “trade war” in early 2018 to a trough in January of 2019, before largely stabilizing since then.The fact that Chinese policymakers cut all unnecessary trade with the US over this period, leaves little room for further cuts through 2019 and into 2020.

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Beyond the “trade war,” there have been two other major patterns in the US trade data that will likely have the effect of narrowing the US-China bilateral trade deficit over the coming year. One is the depressing effect on US exports from the 737 MAX grounding since March of 2019, leaving a likely dramatic rebound over the year following the lifting of the FAA ban presumably later this year. The other major pattern is the steep climb in US exports of petroleum products, as the Permian Basin is rapidly transforming into a major export center thanks to ongoing innovations in pressurized and lateral drilling.

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The seasonal patterns are expected to allow a deficit to return for the last time between December and April, before the US becomes a “permanent” net petroleum exporter. China is dependent on petroleum imports, and hence it is anticipated that US exporters capture more of this market over the coming years, especially given that the phase-one deal involves a shift in Chinese purchases toward US commodities.

The combination of a narrowing US-China trade deficit, strength in US exports of petroleum-related products, and an assumed Boeing-led surge in capital goods exports at some point this year, may all suggest a narrowing US trade gap.

Hence to be sure, as the trade gap declined to the lowest during Donald Trump presidency, will add to GDP if not in the long term definitely in the near term, possible during February-March with help from the Chinese New Year and Phase-1 deal.

Overall however, a US GDP growth out-performance versus other countries in 2020 is anticipated, and a firm Dollar with strong capital account inflows, that should fuel a widening trade deficit through the year despite the narrowing bilateral gap with China.



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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 17th January 2020.

Positive bias on the back of US & Chinese Data 17th January 2020.


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Positive bias on the back of US & Chinese Data – Sentiment was supported by robust US retail sales on Thursday, ongoing good will following the Phase One trade deal and good earnings data, despite the slowdown of Chinese GDP growth to the lowest in 29 years.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 20th January 2020.

Events to Look Out For Next Week 20th January 2020.

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*An important week is coming up with regards to economic announcements and central banks, as PBoC, BoJ, BoC and ECB rate decision are expected to take place although none are expected to shake the market. Meanwhile, reduced liquidity will define trading on Friday as the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday begins.

Monday – 20 January 2020

* Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The PBoC is expected to keep its interest rates at 4.15%.

Tuesday – 21 January 2020

* Interest Rate Decision and Conference (JPY, GMT 03:00) – The central bank signaled its commitment to keep interest rates at current levels “for an extended period of time, at least through around spring 2020”. The BoJ Governor said in his last statement that cutting rates further is a possible policy option, adding that he doesn’t think that Japan is near the reversal rate. He also said that he doesn’t think the BoJ needs to change the forward guidance for now. Hence this is likely to remain the scenario in this week’s Monetary Policy Statement.

* Employment and Earnings (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Earning growth excluding bonus is expected to have declined by 3.4% in November, below the 3.5% the previous month. The ILO unemployment rate (3M) for November could rise to 3.9% from 3.8%.

* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – German Economic Sentiment for January is projected at 4.3 from the 10.7 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though is expected to decline further to 5.5 from 11.2. A lower than expected outcome ties in with the stagnation in market sentiment at the start of the month.

Wednesday – 22 January 2020

* Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The average of the three core CPI measures for December is expected to have come out slightly lower than last month, at 2.1% y/y from 2.2% y/y. The CPI backstops continue to back the BoC’s steady policy outlook.

* Interest Rate Decision and Conference (CAD, GMT 15:00) – No change is seen in the current 1.75% policy setting, alongside an announcement and MPR that are consistent with steady policy through year end.

Thursday- 23 January 2020

* Labour Market Data (AUD, GMT 13:30) – Australia’s recent employment report showed a slowdown in jobs growth also affected by the bushfires crisis. In December, the unemployment rate is anticipated to jump back to 5.3%  while the employment change is expected to fall to 14K from 39.9K last time.

* ECB Interest Rate Decision and Conference (EUR, GMT 12:45 & 13:30) – The ECB is expected to keep policy on hold in January as policy review starts. The ECB kept policy on hold and re-affirmed easing bias at the December policy meeting.

* Consumer Price Index (NZD, GMT 21:45) – The overall New Zealand CPI for Q4 should rise to 2.2% y/y from 1.5%.

* Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The BoJ Minutes report provides the BoJ Members’ opinions regarding the Japanese economic outlook and any views regarding future rate changes.

Friday – 24 January 2020

* Chinese New Year’s Eve – Asia Markets closed

* Markit PMI (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The prel. December manufacturing PMI was revised up to 46.3 from 45.9, still down from 46.9 in November. The manufacturing sector has been stuck in recession for eleven successive months. The composite PMI for January meanwhile is expected to be lifted to 51.0 along with a possible rise in services.

* Markit PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The prel. UK Services PMI for January is forecasted to register a downwards reading  to 49.4  after the upwards revision last week at 50.0.

* Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Retail Sales should register a gain in November to 0.1%, after the -1.2% plunge to 0.1% in total sales values in October.

* Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The Manufacturing PMI is expected to have decreased to 52.3 in January, compared to 52.4 in December.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 21st January 2020.

FX Update – US Closed & USD Softer 21st January 2020.

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EURUSD, H1

The Dollar has seen modest weakness in quiet early-week trading. Volumes are likely to remain on the low side today with US markets closed for the Martin Luther King holiday.

Stock markets in Asia remained buoyant after bellwether indices in the US and Europe hit record highs (again) on Friday. Mostly upbeat earnings, reduced trade uncertainty and, more fundamentally, accommodative central banks (the Fed’s capping of repo rates is of particular note, which has swelled its balance sheet by 11% since last September) along with a persisting benign inflationary picture, have been maintaining the bull run on global stock markets.

EURUSD steadied after dropping over the last two days of last week, which left a 10-day low at 1.1085. Earlier, German PPI inflation ended 2019 at -0.2% y/y, up from -0.7% y/y in November and in fact a tad higher than anticipated. However, the uptick was mainly due to the fact that negative base effects from energy prices fell out of the equation, which was already evident in HICP readings and thus the PPI number doesn’t change the overall outlook. Inflation remains too low for the ECB’s liking and both the definition of the benchmark inflation rate and the target itself are set to the part of the ECB’s strategic policy overhaul that is set to start in earnest this week. EURUSD is once again testing the 1.1085 and the key 61.8 Fibonacci level at 1.1079, and S1 sits at 1.1070 and the December/November low 1.0980.

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USDJPY went into narrow-range mode, posting just less than a 15-pip range in Asia through to the open of the London interbank market. Cable edged out a five-day low at 1.2985, and EURGBP lifted above its Friday peak in making a high at 0.8456. The possibility of the BoE cutting rates at its MPC meeting this Thursday should keep the Pound under pressure. The UK finance minister remarked over the weekend to the Financial Times that the UK would not be a “ruletaker” after Brexit, urging businesses to “adjust”. This has been taken negatively by businesses and has also weighed on Sterling today. USDCAD ebbed fractionally lower, to a 1.3055 low, which is near the midway point of the range seen over the last week.

Oil prices rallied at the opening of trading today, which sent front-month USOil to an 11-day high at $59.66. Reports that two large production sites in Libya closed in the face of military blockades (the country is amid a long-running civil war) underpinned prices. This was ahead of the Libya Conference in Paris at the weekend and seen as muscle flexing by the main opposition group. Elsewhere, AUDUSD recouped nearly half of the decline seen on Friday in carving out a high at 0.6888. The Aussie Dollar on Friday printed a 10-day low at 0.6871. RBA money markets positioning has continued to imply a 56% probability for the RBA trimming the cash rate by 25 bp at its February-4 policy meeting, unchanged since last Thursday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 22nd January 2020.

Bitcoin – Exposed to corrections; bias cautiously bullish 22nd January 2020.

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Bitcoin, Daily and Weekly

For the past two days, Bitcoin has been consolidating gains seen during January in a  a safe haven play on rising concerns about the US-China trade war, geopolitical tensions and Iran sanctions, but also following the launch of options on the CME Globex.

Bitcoin staged a stunning upside reversal around the $6,400- $6,800 support area a week ago, with the price surging back above the 200-day Simple Moving average and towards two-month highs.

Currently however, sellers are pushing for a recoil below the 61.8% Fibonacci of $8,562 of the downleg from $9,904 to $6,407, a break of which could see the retest of the $8,148 barrier, which reflects the 50% Fibonacci level. Particularly if the 50% Fibonacci does not hold and sellers move below it, then the $8,000 number could come back into play.

However, moving higher, above the psychological resistance at $9,000, could next captivate trader’s attention and trigger another bullish action towards $9,570 – $9,904, i.e. the October-November upswings.

Still, with the RSI close to overbought waters,as the indicator moves softly towards its 70 overbought mark, downside corrections cannot be ruled out in the near term. On the contrary, MACD lines keep gaining ground in the positive territory. If MACD and RSI keep gaining ground in the positive territory, the price may continue to head higher.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 23rd January 2020.

How To Improve Your Trading Mindset 23rd January 2020.


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Our Head Market Analyst, Stuart, explains how to improve your Trading Mindset. Understand the importance of emotional control and discipline through an unmissable Q&A session.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 24th January 2020.
 
PMIs in focus – EUR, GBP & USD 24th January 2020.
 
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PMI data from Europe, UK and USA will be the main drivers for the FX market today.
 
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
 
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
 
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
 
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
 
 
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
 
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 27th January 2020

Events to Look Out For Next Week 27th January 2020.


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Brexit Day has officially arrived, however BoE and FOMC take the centre stage next week. Meanwhile, the world’s attention has turned to the coronavirus and how well it will be contained. Note that markets in China, South Korea, and Taiwan were closed for Lunar New Year holidays, with the former two now closed through to the end of next week.

Monday – 27 January 2020

  • German IFO (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The German Business Sentiment Index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. January’s numbers are expected to decline.

Tuesday – 28 January 2020

  • Durable Goods (USD, GMT 13:30) – Durable Goods is the leading indicator of production in the US. December’s Durable goods orders are expected to rise 2.0% with a 6.0% bounce in transportation orders, after a -2.1% headline orders decrease in November that was hit with a -5.9% transportation orders decline. Boeing orders for planes plunged to 3 after bouncing to 63 in November thanks to a boost from the Dubai Air Show.
  • Chicago Board Consumer Confidence Index (USD, GMT 15:00) – The Chicago Board Index is expected to have increased from 126.5 in December to 127.2 in January.

Wednesday – 29 January 2020

  • Consumer Price Index (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Inflation is expected to have unchanged close to 1.7% y/y, after flattered to 0.5% in Q4.
  • Interest Rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 19:00) – No change is expected at the Fed meeting, with the Fed having backed out of its tightening phase after cutting rates three times last year. However, guidance regarding future rate movements is expected.

Thursday – 30 January 2020

  • Interest Rate Decision and conference (GBP, GMT 12:00) – The BoE is expected to remain on hold, especially after the UK Jan flash composite PMI smashed expectations today. Positioning in OIS markets now implies a 47% probability for the BoE trimming the repo rate by 25 bp at the January-30th MPC meeting next week, so markets are still anticipating easier monetary policy, albeit to a lesser extent than recently. Policymakers will still be looking to see the full impact that the lifting of Brexit and political fog has since the election in mid December, especially with the global economy looking to be holding up.
  • Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30) – A Q4 GDP growth of 2.4% is expected with a huge $67 bln surge in net exports due to a big import plunge, but a similarly huge but nearly offsetting -$53 bln Q4 inventory subtraction that leaves an accumulation rate of just $17 bln.
  • Tokyo Core CPI (JPY, GMT 23:30) – Tokyo CPI is usually a good proxy for the Japanese economy’s overall inflation rate. In January, the CPI ex Food is expected to have stood at 0.6% y/y, lower than December, even though projections may be revised when Retail Sales are taken into consideration.
  • Retail Sales (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Following a precipitous 2-month dive in October and November, due to a prolonged hit to exports from soft global demand and a slide in consumer spending following a nationwide tax hike, December’s Retail Sales are expected to climb slightly to 0.7% on a y/y basis.

Friday – 31 January 2020

  • Brexit Deadline

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 28th January 2020.

New Homes Sales add to the woes 28th January 2020.


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USA30, H1
US new home sales dipped -0.4% in December to a 694k pace, after November’s revised -1.1% drop to 697k (was 719k). October was bumped down to 705k, versus 710k. This is the lowest since July. Sales were at a 564k rate last December. Regionally, sales declined in the Northeast and South, and rose in the Midwest and West. The month’s supply of homes rose to 5.7 from 5.5 (revised from 5.4). The median sales prices increased 3.3% to $331,400 after November’s -0.8% slide to $320,900 (revised from $330,800). That’s a +0.5% y/y clip versus 4.0% y/y in November (revised from 7.2% y/y). The drop in sales and downward revisions are a disappointment. Housing was a significant plus point for the US economy in 2019.

US equities are sharply lower, following on the heels of the plunge in stocks globally on heightened worries over the spreading coronavrius and concern about slowing global economic growth. The USA100 trades 1.76% lower at 9150, the USA500 is 1.41% lower at 3249 with the USA30 is down over 400 points (1.4%) at 28,586, from the breach of the 200-period moving average on Fridays close.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 30th January 2020.

EURUSD & FOMC Preview


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EURUSD, H1

EURUSD edged out a fresh two-month low at 1.0994, racking up today as the sixth consecutive trading day where a lower low has been seen. The new low is the culmination of a moderate downtrend that’s been unfolding over the last couple of weeks, from levels above 1.1150. The Dollar has been outperforming the common currency in the context of rising risk aversion in global markets, while ECB policymakers have been signalling that accommodative monetary policy will remain in place for the foreseeable future given economic risks. ECB’s Rehn said earlier that the monetary arsenal hasn’t been exhausted yet.

The Dollar, meanwhile, is currently registering as the strongest of the main currencies on the year-to-date, reflecting international demand for Treasuries (the Dollar is up by 3.9% versus the Aussie dollar, which is the weakest, closely followed by the Kiwi dollar (3.0%) and is showing a near 0.5% gain on the Yen, which is the second strongest).

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In the bigger picture, the EURUSD has been trending lower since early 2018, dropping from levels near 1.2500 and posting a 32-month low at 1.0879 in early October, the current nadir of the trend. Momentum has faded, however, with the Fed having backed out of its tightening phase after hiking rates three times last year. The central bank has since been engaged in capping the repo rate, which has seen its balance swell by some 11% since last September, and Fed funds futures are discounting about 72% odds for a 25 bp easing at the last FOMC meeting of the year in December, after the US Presidential election (which the markets are assuming will see Mr. Trump back in the White House).

The FOMC will issue its post-meeting statement at 19:00 GMT later today. There is no reason to expect a change in the fed funds target range of 1.50%-1.75%. Data released since the December meeting did little to change the Fed’s commitment to a policy pause until we see a “material change” in the outlook. The statement and press conference will be monitored closely for any remaining tilt in the Fed’s policy toward easing. Expectations are that the Fed will refrain from signaling further action, either in the statement or the ensuing (19:30) press conference. As ever, nuances and inferences from Jay Powell will be closely followed by market participants, commentators and of course, President Trump.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 31st January 2020.

EURUSD & FOMC Preview

2020-01-31_11-29-50.jpg

GBPUSD, H1

Risk-off positioning in currencies came to an uncertain pause, amid a backdrop of sputtering stock markets amid continuing concerns about the spread of the coronavirus in and out of China, and the economic-damaging impact that efforts to contain the contagion is having.

USDJPY edged out a two-day high as the Japanese currency saw some of its safe-haven premium erode. The pair posted a two-day high at 109.13, putting in a little distance from the 23-day low posted yesterday at 108.58. EURJPY also printed a two-day high, at 120.40, while AUDJPY fared a little less well, holding within its Thursday range, though settling above the three-and-a-half-month lows.

AUDUSD remained heavy after yesterday’s run to a three-and-a-half-month low at 0.6700. This is now the fifth consecutive week the Australian Dollar has declined, with markets factoring in the double-whammy economic impact of the worst-in-decades wildfires and the consequences of dealing with the coronavirus outbreak out of China (to which Australia is particularly exposed, given its strong trading links with China and vastly reduced Chinese tourist visitations over the Lunar New Year period). The RBA meet next week with expectations dimming of a rate cut, making the 0.6700 handle even more significant.

EURUSD has put in another sub-20-pip range so far, holding below yesterday’s one-week peak at 1.1039.

Cable built on the gains seen following yesterday’s BoE no-change policy announcement, which came contrary to at least some expectation for a rate cut. The Pound posted a fresh one-week high at 1.3135. EURGBP concurrently extended to a new one-week low, at 0.8400. Brexit day has dawned and at 23:00 GMT a very disunited kingdom leaves the EU after 47 years.

USDCAD remained buoyant, above 1.3200, although slightly off from yesterday’s seven-week high at 1.3226. The new high was concomitant with oil prices hitting one-year lows. This is now the fourth straight week USDCAD has risen, which has been concomitant with a four-week stretch of tumbling oil prices. The USOil benchmark has dropped by some 21% over this period.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 3rd February 2020

Events to Look Out For Next Week.


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Chinese markets reopen next week following a global sell-off coupled with escalating disruptions caused by the coronavirus. The spread of the coronavirus is expected to continue dominating the market as it is starting to pose yet another risk to the global economy. Along with monitoring the virus, in the week ahead traders will look to more earnings out of the US, along with the US Jobs Report and RBA rate decision.
Monday – 03 February 2020
 

  • Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin Manufacturing PMI is expected to hold close to neutral, at 51.5 for January.
  • Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 01:45) – The German Manufacturing PMI is likely to once again confirm a recession in the manufacturing sector, at 45.2 for January.
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM Index is expected to tick up to 47.5 in January from 47.2 in December, compared to a 14-year high of 60.8 in August of ’18.

Tuesday – 04 February 2020
 

  • Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 03:30) – No surprises are expected in the RBA’s interest rate decision, while its statement should provide important insights regarding the future of the Australian economy. Market positioning in Australian cash rate futures implies a 19% probability for a 25 bp rate cut, down from the 58% odds being given before the release of an unexpectedly solid employment report out of Australia.
  • Labour Market Data (NZD, GMT 21:45) – The final reading for Q4 employment change is expected to show few positive labor reports. The unemployment rate is anticipated at 3.8% from 4.2%, while participation rate is seen rising at 71.1%.

Wednesday – 05 February 2020
 

  • RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 01:30)
  • ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – Employment change is seen drifting to 155k in the number of employed people in January, compared to the 202k reading seen last month.
  • Trade Balance (USD, GMT 13:30) – The trade deficit is expected to widen in December to -$49.7 bln from -$43.1 bln in November. The exports are expected to rise 0.3% to $209.3 bln, and imports to rebound by 2.9% to $259.1 bln. A rebound is expected for both oil import prices and volume that prompt a $3 bln petroleum import bounce, and also for most other commodity components as well, following outsized November declines. Imports from China have sharply undershot the usual seasonal pattern since July, with a particularly big hit in October and November. Tariff front running in late-2018 and early-2019 is now being unwound, though we expect some give-back for this pattern in December.
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM-NMI Index is expected to rise to 55.1 in January from 55.0 in December and a recent low of 52.6 in September, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September of 2018.

Thursday – 06 February 2020

RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 01:30)

European Commission releases Economic Growth Forecasts (EUR, GMT 10:00)

Friday – 07 February 2020
 

  • NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 50k January Nonfarm payroll rise is seen, following a 145k increase in December. The jobless rate should hold steady at 3.5% for a third month and average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.0%. We will get the annual revisions for the establishment survey with the January report, and guidance suggests a -501k revision in the March 2019 payroll level that implies -42k reductions per month, on average, for the twelve months ending last March.
  • Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada’s employment rebounded 35.2k in December after the 71.2k plunge in November. The unemployment rate fell to 5.6% from 5.9%, undershooting projections for an incremental dip to 5.8%. The participation rate dipped to 65.5% from 65.6%. For January, the unemployment rate is expected to rise at 5.8% while participation rate should remain unchanged.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 04th February 2020.

US Open and US ISM manufacturing


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US Open and US ISM manufacturing – US ISM manufacturing index bounced 3.1 points to 50.9 in January, much better than expected.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 05th February 2020.

Understanding Market Basics I - 05th February


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In this 90 minutes podcast, especially designed for NEW and inexperienced traders, Andria will outline the Market Basics including Supply & Demand, Fundamental & Technical analysis including some basic charts and market cycles:

• Basic Supply & Demand
• How Fundamental and Technical Analysis differ
• Price Charts, Market Cycles, Trends and Consolidations

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 06th February 2020.

US Services PMIs also revised higher - 06th February

2020-02-05_16-44-40.jpg

USDIndex, Daily
The January ISM non-manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 55.5 from 55.1, the December figure sat at 54.9.  The components were mixed. The employment sub-index dipped to 53.1 from 54.8 previously (revised from 55.2). New orders improved to 56.2 versus 55.3 (revised from 54.9), though new export orders slipped -0.9 ticks to 50.1. Imports jumped 7.1 points to 55.1. And prices paid fell to 55.5 from from 59.3 (revised from 58.5). Although the headline is below data from 2017 through most of 2019, this a solid report for the economy.

US Markit services PMI was also revised up to 53.4 in the final January print versus the 53.2 preliminary. And it’s up from the 52.8 in December. It was at 54.2 a year ago. It’s the highest since March. The employment component rose to 51.8 from 51.7 in December and is the third straight month of expansion. Prices charged declined. The composite was nudged up to 53.3 from the 53.1 preliminary, and is up from December’s 52.7. It was at 54.4 last January, and also is the best since March. Input prices increased to 52.6 versus December’s 52.5, a fourth straight monthly gain, and are the highest since June. The data continue to show resilience to the nCoV scare.

The PMI data lifted the Greenback and its recovery during January continues into February. The USDIndex is over 98.00 for the time since in the 45 trading days since December 3.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 10th February 2020

Events to Look Out For Next Week 10th February 2020.


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Markets are restive on the rapid spread of the nCoV and its impact on the global economy, especially after reports that factories in China will remain closed into next week. Meanwhile, any announcement about the prospects for trade talks between the UK and US could come into the spotlight. These come alongside growth rate data from the UK and Eurozone, RBNZ Monetary policy and US inflation.

Monday – 10 February 2020

  • Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The Chinese CPI is expected to spike in January to 4.9%y/y following a steady December and after hitting its highest since 2012 in November.

Tuesday – 11 February 2020

  • Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The economy’s most important figure, Q4 GDP is expected to be higher at 1% q/q following the 0.4% reading for Q3.
  • Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The two indices are expected to have grown to 0.2% m/m and -0.1% respectively in December, with manufacturing production recovering partially from a -1.7% decline in the prior month.
  • Housing Starts and Building Permits (CAD, GMT 13:15) – Housing starts slowed in December, to a 197.3k unit pace from a revised 204.3k rate in November. In January, the index is expected to bounce back to 210K. The separate building permits report revealed a 2.4% drop in values during November, while a growth up to 1% is anticipated for December.

Wednesday – 12 February 2020

  • Interest Rate Decision and Statement (NZD, GMT 20:00) – RBNZ is expected to cut rates by 25 bp to 0.75%. The bank held rates steady at 1.00% in November, upending widespread expectations for a cut to 0.75%.

Thursday – 13 February 2020

  • BoC’s Governor Poloz speech and RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (NZD, GMT 00:15)
  • Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 07:00) – The German HICP inflation for January is seen steady at 1.6% y/y.
  • Consumer Price Index and core (USD, GMT 13:30) – The headline CPI should rise 0.1% in January, with a 0.2% core price increase, following respective December readings of 0.2% and 0.1%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y increase of 2.4%, up from 2.3% in December.

Friday – 14 February 2020

  • Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German Preliminary Q4 results are expected to slow down, at an annualised rate of 0.9% compared to 1.0% last quarter. Eurozone GDP should remain unchanged.
  • Retail Sales (USD, GMT 13:30) – Retail Sales are expected to have grown by 0.3% in January, and 0.4% for the ex-auto figure. Gasoline prices should have a neutral impact on retail activity, given an estimated slight -0.2% drop for the CPI gasoline index.
  • Michigan Sentiment (USD, GMT 15:00) – US consumer sentiment rose to 99.8 in the final January print from the University of Michigan survey, versus 99.1 in the preliminary reading for this month. The index is up 0.5 ticks from December’s 99.3. This is the best reading since the 100.0 in May. The preliminary February Michigan sentiment reading is forecast at 99.9.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 11th February 2020.

Macro News & Events February 11 | 11th February 2020.


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FX News Today –
Another record close for Stocks – EUR at 4 mth low, AUD recovers from 10 yr lows – nCoV – over 1,000 deaths and 43k infections – Overnight China offers more stimulus, more reports GDP cud be down over 1% 2020 – Powell, Lagarde & Carney ALL scheduled to speak to later.


Today
UK GDP, Ind. Production & Trade Balance, EU Growth Forecasts, JOLTS reports – PLUS – Powell, Lagarde and Carney all testify today – plus back up speeches from Haskel (BOE) and Kashkari & Quarles (FED).

Biggest (FX) Move overnight @ (07:00 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.53%) –Rallied from 73.20 lows yesterday, breaching 20hr MA & PP (73.35) at (23:00). Over 200hr MA (73.65) & R1 (73.70) by (05:00). MA’s and RSI both supportive, Stochastics overbought zone from 12:00 – topped at 95.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 12th February 2020.

FX Update – A weaker Yen & Stronger Kiwi today - 12th February


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USDJPY, H1
The Yen remained soft while the Dollar bloc currencies extended recent gains as risk appetite in global markets held up, with a reported dip in new coronavirus (now Covid-19)cases in China being tonic for investors. Wall Street yesterday saw fresh record highs, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific equity index rose by another 1% today. USDJPY lifted through 110.00 to 110.13 and above Tuesday’s high at 109.96. AUDJPY, now in its third consecutive day of ascent, carved out a five-day high at 74.23 , stalling at R2. AUDUSD and NZDUSD lifted to respective a six-day highs, at 0.6737 and 0.6476, while USDCAD fell to a six-day low at 1.3272. The RBNZ left policy on hold following a board meeting today, and also removed guidance for more rate cuts, saying that only a longer than currently anticipated impact from the Covid-19 outbreak would warrant any further easing. New Zealand also has an election this November. Governor Orr is due to testify later today (19:10 GMT) on today’s MPC statement before Finance and Expenditure Select Committee.

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Elsewhere, EURUSD looks to have found a footing after a run of seven consecutive down days, steadying so far today around 1.0900-1.0925, above the four-month low that was printed at 1.0891. Cable edged out a six-day high at 1.2969, surpassing yesterday’s high by a pip, while EURGBP ebbed to a nine-day low at 0.8413. The Pound is amid a phase of modest outperformance, with available January data out of the UK have shown a rebound in economic activity as the fog of political uncertainty cleared following the December general election, while Prime Minister Johnson announcing big plans for infrastructure projects. These have helped quell, for now, concerns about Brexit and divergence from the EU.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 14th February 2020.

FX Update – EUR Pressure continues - 14th February


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EURUSD, H1 / Weekly
Germany’s economy stagnated in Q4 last year, in line with a number of forecasts and a tad below consensus expectations, which had predicted a slight expansion of 0.1% q/q. Compared to negative quarterly prints in France and Italy, Germany is already the outperformer among the three big Eurozone countries and Q3 numbers for Germany were revised up to 0.2% from 0.1% reported initially. This left the working day adjusted annual rate 0.4% y/y a tad higher than anticipated, but down from 1.1% y/y in Q3. There is no full breakdown yet, but the stats office reported that private as well as public consumption slowed in the last quarter of 2019, while investment was mixed with construction investment, expanding again. Exports contracted, while imports picked up according to first estimate. Looking ahead, exports are likely to continue to suffer and orders numbers are predicting another weak quarter for manufacturing, which leaves the risk that the labour market will start to suffer. The balance of risks clearly is tilted to the downside not just for Germany’s economy.

The Euro posted fresh lows against the Dollar and other currencies, while both the safe haven Yen and Swiss franc lost yesterday’s bid as the daily increment of new coronavirus cases in China fell back alongside narratives that are downplaying yesterday’s jump in total reported cases in Hubei province as being just a reclassification. EURUSD posted a fresh 34-month low at 1.08265, and is set for its biggest two-week loss since July 2019. Today, the German GDP helped lift it to 1.0840 with the broader GDP data for the wider Eurozone yet to come. EURJPY printed a four-month low, at 118.86, and EURCHF a near-five-year-low, at 1.0609. EURGBP yesterday saw a two-month low below at 0.8295.

Elsewhere, USDJPY settled in the upper 109.00s, above the four-day low seen yesterday at 109.61. Cable consolidated gains seen yesterday, holding just shy of the nine-day high at 1.3069.

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The EURUSD low earlier tested the S2 and 161.8 Fibonacci extension low of the December rally at 1.0820, below there is the daily lower channel at 1.0750. In the the longer term the 161.8 Fibonacci extension level from the Q419 rally is at 1.0650 and then the psychological 1.0500. The Q419, against the trend, re-trace rally came from this over extension from the 200-day moving average which is where we are now, so some retrace to possibly the 1.1050-75 zone could be expected.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 17th February 2020

Events to Look Out For Next Week 17th February 2020.


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Uncertainties over the extent of the economic damage from the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) will keep the markets on shaky footing near term. Elsewhere, focus will be on Europe following Germany’s economic stagnation in Q4 last year as seen today. Looking ahead, ZEW exports and manufacturing remain in the spotlight. That said, further contraction on these leaves the risk that the labour market will start to suffer. The balance of risks is clearly tilted to the downside, and not just for Germany’s economy.

Monday – 17 February 2020

  • Eurogroup Meeting
  • US Bank Holiday – US banks will be closed in observance of Presidents’ Day – NYSE, Nasdaq and Bond markets are all fully closed.

Tuesday – 18 February 2020

  • RBA Minutes (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The RBA minutes will provide more insight on the views the Australian Central Bank has about the economy.
  • Average Earnings and Unemployment (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Earnings are expected to have slowed by 3.1% in the last quarter of 2019, while the ILO Unemployment Rate for the 3 months to December is seen steady at 3.8%.
  • ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – German Economic Sentiment for February is projected at 15.0 from the 26.7 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany declines further. The overall Eurozone reading though is expected to rise to 30.0 from 25.6.
  • Trade Balance (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Japanese imports should decrease -15.8% y/y in January, compared to -4.9% in December, in expectation of lower domestic consumption. Overall, the trade balance is expected to have worsened in January.

Wednesday – 19 February 2020

  • Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Prices are expected to have eased in January, with overall inflation expected to stand unchanged at 1.3% y/y, and core at 1.5% from 1.4% y/y last month.
  • Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Prices are expected to have improved to 0.1% in January following a flat CPI in December. The overall inflation should have expanded in January to a 2.2% y/y, matching December’s reading.
  • FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 19:00) – The FOMC minutes will provide more insight on the views the FED has about the economy.

Thursday – 20 February 2020

  • Employment Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Employment change s.a. is expected to have increased by 31K in Australia in January, compared to 28.9K in December. The unemployment rate is expected to have increased to 5.2%.
  • Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Following the unexpected 0.6% m/m contraction in UK retail sales in December, Retail Sales are expected to grow by 0.6% in January.
  • ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 12:30) –The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, provide information with regard to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions.
  • National CPI Index (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The Japanese price index should fall to 0.7% on a y/y basis, compared to 0.8% in December.

Friday – 21 February 2020

  • EU PMIs (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Both manufacturing and services February PMIs are expected to have dropped, leaving the composite at 51.0, down from 51.3 in the preliminary release for February. In Germany meanwhile, composite PMI should slow to 50.7 from 51.2.
  • UK Service PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The final services PMI for January was unexpectedly revised up, to 53.9 from 52.9 in the preliminary estimate, and the highest level in 16 months.
  • Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – CPI inflation is forecasted to hold at 1.4% y/y as seen in January.
  • Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Core Canadian sales are anticipated to have risen by 0.4% m/m in December, compared to 0.2% m/m in November.
  • US PMIs (USD, GMT 14:45) – The Manufacturing PMI is expected to have increased to 52.5 in February, compared to 51.9 in January, while the Services PMI is expected to have slowed to 52.9.
  • Existing Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:45) – We expect a 0.4% rise in existing home sales in January to a 5.560 mln pace, after a rise to 5.540 mln in December. Pending home sales have grown substantially since Q4 of 2018, though we saw a big -4.9% pull-back in December.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 18th February 2020.

UK Week Ahead - 18th February


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The data calendar this week is quite busy, featuring, in chronological order, monthly labour market data today, January inflation figures (Wednesday), January retails sales (Thursday), and the preliminary January PMI surveys (Friday).

The UK employment is anticipated to hold steady at 3.8% in December data, though the average household income to dip to a 3.1% y/y rate in the three months to December. The headline CPI has forecasted to remain unchanged at 1.3% y/y rate, which is well off the BoE’s 2.0% target, though would fit the central bank’s projections. A 0.6% m/m rebound in retail sales is expected following the 0.6% contraction in December. As for the preliminary PMI data, the market consensus if for a dip in the headline composite reading, to 52.7 from 53.3, with service sector expansion seen slowing after the acceleration in January, and manufacturing sector activity dipping back into mild contraction.

Overall, the as-expected data will affirm a picture of a post-election rebound in activity. This, combined with markets anticipating a fiscally expansive 2020-21 budget presentation from the government in March, should keep the pound underpinned. The impact of the coronavirus hasn’t, by anecdotal measures, been much as yet.

On the Brexit front, concerns persist. The government has clearly signalled that it aims for divergence from the EU, and leave, without a new trading agreement if necessary, the Brexit transition period at the end of the year. This would imply the UK shifting to WTO trading terms and conditions, which would erode terms of trade. Bear in mind that when the UK leaves transition phase, it won’t just be leaving the EU’s single market and customs union, but also the 40 free trade agreement that the Union has around the globe.

[IMG]

In currency market meanwhile, Cable has continued to consolidate gains seen mid last week following signs that the government is gearing up a fiscally expansive policy. The pair has pullback to 1.3000 area, off from the two-week high of last Thursday at 1.3069.

On the year-to-date, and from the mid-December election, the Pound has been trading mixed versus the other main currencies, lacking domestically generated directional bias. Political developments have seen UK Prime Minister Johnson strengthen his power, most notably with last week’s resignation of Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid, who was replaced by Rishi Sunak, which effectively green lights a fiscally expansive policy to finance major infrastructure projects (details are due to be announced at the government’s 2020-21 budget presentation in March).

Available January data out of the UK have also confirmed a rebound in economic activity as the fog of political uncertainty cleared following the general election. On the negative side of the balance are persisting concerns about Brexit.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 20th February 2020.

Yen tumble continues - 20th February


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The Yen has continued to tumble, and is showing a near 2% decline against the Dollar from yesterday’s opening levels.USDJPY printed a 10-month high at 112.10, just 28 pips away from its 10-month high, and EURJPY posted a 2-week high, at 121.00.

There have been reports over the last day of major fund managers cutting yen longs, including against short regional Asian currency hedge positions, though most Asian currencies came under fairly heavy pressure today amid concerns about the coronavirus outbreak spreading regionally at an increased rate. There has also been talk of Japanese funds buying US Treasuries. While China reported a large drop in new coronavirus cases, just as the PBoC delivered an expected rate cut, South Korea and Japan reported increases in new cases.

This news led to a mixed performance among Asian equity markets, with China outperforming while other benchmark indices sputtered. Trying to call the point of peak contagion, and thereby the peak of economic disruption, is tough, though the consensus seems to be that it will happen in March or April, aided by the arrival of warmer weather in the northern hemisphere (although scientists aren’t exactly sure if warm weather will have the same quelling effect as it does on flu and cold viruses).

Japan’s Q4 GDP data, released on Monday, disappointed, showing a 1.6% q/q contraction versus the median forecast for -0.9%. Q3 data were also revised down, and the figures came amid expectations for a dismal current quarter performance given the impact of measures to contain the virus outbreak.

There is a risk that USDJPY might sharply reverse gains should risk appetite in global markets deteriorate and sustain. Intraday meanwhile, momentum indicators continue their positive configuration, suggesting that despite the fact that the asset reached overbought territory there is still room to the upside. Stochastics slopes into overbought area and MACD extends above signal line suggesting strengthening of positive bias, whilst ATR posted a 16 pips move. Some correction could be seen ahead of US session, with immediate Support at 112.00 and 111.58 (yesterday’s peak), however the overall outlook remains positive. Resistance sits at 2019 peak , i.e. 112.38 and at 112.66 (R2 of the day).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 21st February 2020.

GBPUSD – A Bear Trap? 21st February


[IMG]

GBPUSD, H4
This pair has been down significantly for two days to a new two-month low at 1.2848, although the UK economic data was relatively positive on both days. On Wednesday (February 19) it was retail prices, PPI and CPI, all of which came out well, and strengthened the GBP for a short time. However, shortly after the key data announcement the pair continued to plummet heavily into and during the US market. Wednesday closed down around 78 pips and Thursday (February 20) was the same, as the UK Retail Sales numbers came out positive. But the pair still closed down more than 35 pips as the Dollar remained dominant.

US economic data also came out well on both days, and the US Dollar Index managed to reach an almost 3 year high at 99.79, while Brexit trade negotiations between the UK and the EU began to turn around again. In the case that the UK may have to leave the EU without a deal after the French Finance Minister has come out to comment that “we are separated”.

From a technical perspective, the breakout of the support zone yesterday (February 20) at 1.2880 caused the H4 time frame to print signs of a bear trap, which must continue to develop to see if the pair can go up or not. In the Day time frame, yesterday the price came down to test the key support at the EMA 200 line and bounce back up. This makes today’s first support level 1.2880. If the price goes down and is able to pass this level, the next support level will be at yesterday’s low at around 1.2850, but if the price continues to rise there is resistance waiting at 1.2925 and 1.2950.

However, today on the economic calendar there is still important economic data waiting. At 16:30, the UK announces PMI numbers for both manufacturing and services. At 21.45 hrs onwards, the United States will announce PMI and monthly home sales figures for January.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 24th February 2020

Events to Look Out For Next Week 24th February 2020.


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The economic data has been and will continue to be overshadowed by the Covid-19 outbreak. The week ahead starts light, with the German Business Sentiment Index and Chinese Retail Sales on Monday. Leading indicators dominate the releases, but the event of the week is the US GDP and Consumer Confidence, which should shed light on whether the epidemic is visible in the data globally.

Monday – 24 February 2020

  • Japan – Emperor’s Birthday
  • Retail Sales (CNY, GMT N/A) – China’s retail trade growth stood at 8 percent year-on-year in December 2019. However a strong decline is expected for January, following the recent releases indicating that new car sales plunged 92% in China in February and airline traffic is expected to post the first drop since 2011 amid heavy virus containment measures in China.
  • German IFO (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The German Business Sentiment Index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. February’s numbers are expected to incline.

Tuesday – 25 February 2020

  • Leading Economic Index (JPY, GMT 05:00) – The index is expected to show no change in the outlook of the Japanese economy and stand at 91.6.
  • Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German GDP is expected to have fallen by 0.3% on an annualized rate in the last quarter of the year, compared to 1.0% growth in Q3.
  • Conference Board Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 15:00) – Consumer Confidence is expected to have increased to 132.4 compared to 131.6 in the previous month.

Wednesday – 26 February 2020

  • New Home Sales (USD, GMT 15:00) – The housing recovery should extend into 2020, assuming that mortgage rates remain low and Fed policy remains accommodative. The January new home sales should post a 2.3% climb to a 710k pace, after a dip to a 694k rate in December, versus a 12-year high of 730k in September.
  • Trade Balance (NZD, GMT 21:45) – The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. It will be interesting to see whether the New Zealand trade balance already posts an impact from the epidemic.

Thursday – 27 February 2020

  • Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30) – US preliminary GDP growth for Q4 is expected to trim to 2.0% from 2.1%.
  • Durable Goods (USD, GMT 13:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to fall -1.5% in January with a -4.7% drop in transportation orders. Defense orders should fall by -29%, following the 101.4% December surge. Boeing orders declined to zero planes, following a dismal 3 planes in January.
  • Tokyo Core CPI and Unemployment Rate (JPY, GMT 23:30) – Tokyo CPI is usually a good proxy for the Japanese economy’s overall inflation rate. In February, the CPI ex Food is expected to have stood at 0.9% y/y. The unemployment rate is expected to have climbed to 2.3% from 2.2% in December.
  • Retail Sales (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Following a precipitous 3-month dive in October -December, due to a prolonged hit to exports from soft global demand and a slide in consumer spending following a nationwide tax hike, January’s Retail Sales are expected to drop to -1.1% on a y/y basis.

Friday – 28 February 2020

  • Unemployment Rate (EUR, GMT 08:55) – The German unemployment rate is expected to have remained at 5% in February.
  • Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 13:00) – The German HICP inflation could rise to 0.3% m/m for February from the drop seen at -0.6% m/m last month.
  • Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – A sharp slowing in Canada’s real GDP growth rate to 1.2% (q/q, saar) is expected in Q4 following the 1.3% Q3 growth. This should not add to the backing for a rate cut for the Bank of Canada.
  • Personal Income (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 0.3% rise in personal income in January is anticipated after a 0.2% increase in December, alongside a 0.2% rise in consumption that follows a 0.3% December gain.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 28th February 2020.

“Fear” dominates the market 28th February


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“Fear” dominates the market – The COVID-19 virus has cropped up in sub-Saharan Africa and New Zealand for the first time. Markets remain firmly in the grip of virus fears and global stock markets continue to sell off globally.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 02nd March 2020.

Hopes of coordinated Central Banks help! 02nd March


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Bonds rallied and stock markets looked somewhat better as unscheduled statements from both the BoJ and the Fed sparked speculation of coordinated global central bank cuts.

Fed Chairman Powell was already forced to issue a statement on Friday saying the bank will take appropriate action to support the economy and the BoJ followed over the weekend. The BoJ followed over the weekend, saying that it will “strive to provide ample liquidity and ensure stability in financial markets through appropriate market operations and asset purchases”. The BoJ already offered to buy 500 billion Yen of government bonds via repurchase agreements to provide liquidity and the comments and actions helped local stock markets to recover earlier losses.

A rate cut from the RBA in Australia tomorrow is now seen as pretty much a done deal and speculation that there will be a coordinated move from global central banks this week has helped bond as well as stock markets.

Stock markets had initially been under pressure this morning also due to the weak Chinese manufacturing PMI readings highlighted the impact of virus disruptions. China’s February manufacturing PMI plunged a surprising 14.3 points to 35.7, a record low. This is one of the first pieces of data reflecting the impact of COVID-19, and obviously it’s not good. This new nadir beats the prior figure of 38.8 from November 2008. It’s also the steepest drop on the books. Bloomberg cited Nomura’s chief China economist Lu Ting who noted the data might even have been worse. A rise in delivery times helped boost the index, but the longer delivery time was a function of the COVID-related shutdowns and transportation dislocations, and not due to a jump in demand. Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing index tumbled 24.5 points to 29.6 in February from 54.1 in January. It’s also the lowest on record.

However the potential of coordinated global Central Bank action have helped both Bond and Equity markets to overcome the PMI weakness. JPN225 gained 1%, while the Hang Seng lifted 0.78% and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp rallied 3.7% and 3.4%. The GER30 and UK100 futures are up 1.4% and 1.8% respectively, while US futures are posting gains of 0.4-0.6%. In FX markets EURUSD is trading at 1.1043 and the pound is at 1.625 against the EUR and 1.2837 against the Dollar. The USDJPY lifted to 108.23, after the BoJ statement, while USOIL future traded at $46.10.

Elsewhere, ECB officials have argued that it is too early to make a decision on an appropriate reaction to virus developments, but clearly with markets looking increasingly fragile central bankers will have to issue at least some assurance. German Economy Minister Altmeier meanwhile repeated that the government will address the implication of virus disruptions, saying he will discuss stimulus measures with the finance minister. Europe also has to fear another refugee crisis now after Turkey “opened” its borders in what looks like an attempt to force Nato’s hand over Turkey’s action in Syria. Against that background the official start of EU trade talks with the U.K. almost seems to fade into the background, but a Bloomberg source story highlighted again that the risk of a breakdown is pretty high, which leaves the risk that the transition period ends in December without a deal in place firmly on the table.

Today’s data calendar focuses mainly on final manufacturing PMI readings for February, which are widely expected to confirm preliminary numbers. G7 finance ministers will hold teleconference this week to coordinate their response to the virus outbreak.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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Date : 06th March 2020.

FX Update – March 6 – NFP Day! 06th March


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USDIndex, H1 & Daily
The dollar has continued to weaken versus most other currencies, correlating with the sharp decline in US Treasury yields.

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The USDIndex (DXY) earlier printed a fresh two-month low at 96.10, extending a decline from the 35-month high that was seen on February 20th, at 99.91. EURUSD has concurrently posted a seven-month peak, at 1.1290, which is the new culmination of the biggest two-week gain the pair has seen since February 2016. USDJPY has been undermined by both Dollar weakness and concurrent safe-haven driven outperformance in the Yen, and fell to a six-month low at 105.75. EURJPY and other Yen crosses also printed fresh lows. AUDJPY posted a four-day low, and is nearing the 11-year low the cross saw last week. AUDUSD has remained relatively buoyant, holding abo