Jump to content

Exchange Blog Cryptocurrency Blog


All Pips



FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News


Recommended Posts

USD/JPY: THERE ISN'T ANY REVERSAL PATTERN SO FAR

13:56 10.07.2017

 

1499683994-2a5e878e991946980ef74cebce48b

 

The price has been rising since a "High Wave" pattern formed at the last local low. Meanwhile, there isn't any bearish pattern so far, which means the market is likely going to test the upper "Window". If a pullback from this level happens, we could have a bearish correction.

 

1499683994-bf1c766b4141c87e115421387ca47

 

Bulls faced a resistance area, but we still don't have any bearish pattern. So, we could have the price a little bit higher in the coming hours. However, if we see any reversal pattern later on, there'll be time to have a downward correction.

 

More:


Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 9.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

GBP/USD: OUTLOOK FOR JULY 10 -14

13:58 10.07.2017

 

The British pound fell against the dollar in the past week as the UK data indicated that manufacturing, industrial and construction output declined in May. A slightly stronger USD which was brought about by an upbeat NFP release resulted in a swift correction towards 1.2865.

 

The economic figures pointing to an economic slowdown released in the course of the past week may prevent the Bank of England from rising its borrowing costs. UK average hourly earnings and unemployment data are due on Wednesday. An indication of wage growth would slightly raise the probability of a rate hike this year and provide a modest support to sterling. Towards the end of the week, traders will be focused on the Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony as well as on the spate of the US economic data. If traders qualify Yellen’s statement as hawkish, the USD will gain some strength. The US inflation report, retail sales, and industrial production data will be released on Friday. Strong readings could also accord some support to the US dollar.  

 

GBP/USD has recently dropped below 1.2875 (50 day MA). The technical outlook is still neutral though. The pound has likely moved into a consolidation phase. In the upcoming sessions, it will be trading within the broad range of 1.2800 (23.6% Fibo traced from this year low) and 1.3045 (this year high). The immediate bias is to probe lower levels. A break of the lower border of consolidation range will likely lead to the continuation of the downward movement towards 1.2682 (100-day MA), 1.2640 (38.2% Fibo level).

 

1499684218-19dda06215037e098a5fb4cc55818

 

More:


Link to comment
Share on other sites

GBP/AUD INSIDE A STRONG SELL ZONE

00:00 11.07.2017

 

GBP/AUD managed to reach the 200 SMA at H4 chart, but it was sold-off in a supply zone established by our Fibonacci projections. According to the theory, the pair pulled back from the range between the 1.7051 and 1.7155 levels across the board, which coincides with the 50% - 61.8% Fibonacci areas and the 200 SMA. If the bearish path continues to strengthen, then we may expect the next mid-term target to be tested around 1.6403 (-23.6%).

 

RSI indicator is at the negative territory, favoring the downside scenario.

 

1499720408-1d5b7f15f7e5883fc8ee2ab733879

 

More:


Link to comment
Share on other sites

MORNING BRIEF FOR JULY 11

08:37 11.07.2017

 

The ranges were small today in Asia. Let’s say that it is a period of consolidation for markets ahead of a really busy calendar that sees the opening of the US earning season amid central bankers’ meetings and speaking in the upcoming hours.

 

USD/JPY ticked higher on the session to 114.20.  To maintain the bullish impetus, the US dollar has to move and stay above 113.55. So, there might be a continuation of the rally in the next sessions.

 

The euro is still trading within a narrow range of 1.380 – 1.420. Although the recent rally is on the wane. There is scope for an extension to 1.1445. The ECB’s Coeure is set to give some opening remarks at an FX conference. But it shouldn’t be a market moving event. In contrast, Fed Governor Lael Brainard’s speech should draw much more attention ahead of Yellen’s testimony scheduled for tomorrow. She is from dovish camp; might be cautious to talk about additional hikes; soft inflation releases may become a main impediment to the next rate increase.

 

Aussie traded a bit higher in Tokyo morning. It rose to 0.7610 against the USD.  National Austral Bank released its survey earlier today. Business conditions were super strong for the indicator (15 against prior 11). Business confidence index rose by a more modest 1 point in June, to be at 9 (it is still above the average +6 which is a very encouraging outcome for employment and capital expenditure). The technical outlook is neutral. AUD/USD will likely trade within the range of 0.7540 – 0.7660 in the upcoming sessions.

 

Sterling slipped some points in Tokyo morning and reached 1.2870 from this week high of 1.2908. It seems that the pound is still in a consolidation phase. Although there is a hint for sliding lower towards the solid support at 1.2800. The BoE chief economist Andy Haldane is speaking today. He will probably be dovish with such comments as “future rate increases would be limited and gradual”, weak wage growth repeatedly surprised the BoE’s officials. Traders are still perplexed over a rate hike in the next months as, on the one hand, they receive more or less hawkish comments from the BoE’s policymakers, and on the other hand, they receive quite week economic headings (Friday’s manufacturing data was not successful. Tomorrow’s labor market report will be closely watched by GBP buyers/sellers.

 

USD/CAD is a bit higher on the back of the much anticipated Bank of Canada meeting scheduled for tomorrow. While forecasts are divided on whether the central banks will tighten its monetary policy or not, the money markets have almost fully priced for a rate increase. In the short term, USD/CAD will likely trade sideways between 1.2823 –  1.3236.

 

Oil prices were a little bit higher in the Asian session lifted by a strong demand outlook for the coming weeks. The overall market conditions are still weak with the supply glut and a more subdued outlook for the future demand. Brent futures are now at $46.95.

 

More:


Link to comment
Share on other sites

EUR/USD: EURO IN CONSOLIDATION

09:06 11.07.2017

 

Technical levels: support – 1.1380; resistance – 1.1430.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 1.1380; SL — 1.1360; TP1 — 1.1430; TP2 – 1.1500.

Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with horizontal Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the market is in consolidation near the Cloud.

 

1499753182-5974574d0f06c411e972e24d898d2

 

More:


Link to comment
Share on other sites

GBP/USD: POUND GOING TO SENKOU SPAN B

09:07 11.07.2017

 

Technical levels: support – 1.2840, 1.2810; resistance – 1.2920.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 1.2840; SL — 1.2820; TP1 — 1.2920; TP2 — 1.3020.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but falling Senkou Span A; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices entered into the Cloud; strong support of Senkou Span B.

 

1499753182-5838ef800660551113de2aff99712

 

More:


Link to comment
Share on other sites

USD/CAD: BEARS PREPARE TRAPS

10:09 11.07.2017

On the USD/CAD daily chart, target 113% of the Shark pattern has been fulfilled. This increases the risks of the rollback towards 23.6%, 50% and 61.8% of the CD wave in the course of transformation of the Shark pattern into 5-0. The correction can be used for opening short positions.

 

1499756902-1430b06b52ccdf0a9e951da313446

 

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, quotes are moving within the downward trading channel. The Bears remain their control over the pair. Breaks of resistances at 1.2935 and 1.3005 will lead to the development of correction.

 

1499756922-5c726ce87bf89e31cdcfbd4c37b26

 

More:


Link to comment
Share on other sites

AUD/USD: BULLS DON’T BELIEVE IN THEIR STRENGTH

10:10 11.07.2017

 

On the AUD/USD daily chart, there is a consolidation in the range of 0.7575 – 0.7635 within the correction towards the upward near-term trend. To restore the uptrend, the Bulls need to meet the following conditions: to test the resistance at 0.7635 and to return quotes within the borders of the upward trading channel.

 

1499756997-bbdfbddd46f7c37498b1971206983

 

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, the failure of the Bulls to test the resistance at 0.7675 – 0.768 might lead to the formation of the Head and Shoulders pattern. For its realization, a downfall of quotes below the supports at 0.7575 – 0.758 is needed.

 

1499757011-ef00342837a633bda01cab6a3fe3e

 

More:


Link to comment
Share on other sites

EUR/USD: DEVELOPING BULLISH PATTERN

11:15 11.07.2017

 

1499760881-f7addd2e8b6fa638631845e3654f5

 

The price is consolidating between the levels 1.1444 - 1.1387. We've got a developing bullish pattern, so the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance at 1.1444 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the nearest support at 1.1365 - 1.1354.

 

1499760881-899fb5cc26c4142c7dd397beae0b3

 

There's a consolidation, which is taking place along the 55 Moving Average. Also, we've got a bullish "Flag" pattern, so the pair is likely going to achieve the next resistance at 1.1439 - 1.1444 in the coming hours. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, bears will probably try to test support at 1.1365 - 1.1354.

 

More:


Link to comment
Share on other sites

GBP/USD: "DOUBLE BOTTOM" PATTERN

11:19 11.07.2017

 

1499760881-052ab34c4007344f26dd53fac544b

 

Bears faced support on the 55 Moving Average, so we've got a "V-Bottom" pattern, which has been confirmed. In this case, bulls are likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.2926 - 1.2947. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this area happens, we should keep an eye on the 89 Moving Average as the next bearish target.

 

1499760881-a3475fd27eda4dfcc2f050ef335ee

 

There's a "Double Bottom" pattern, so the price is consolidating under resistance at 1.2887. At the same time, we've got a bullish "Pennant" pattern, so the pair is likely going to achieve the closest resistance at 1.2915 - 1.2926. Nevertheless, bears will probably try to deliver a new local low afterwards.

 

More:


Link to comment
Share on other sites

BITCOIN MIGHT SPLIT IN TWO

11:47 11.07.2017

 

The Bitcoin surged 160% this year as more and more people become attracted to its cyber shine. Some crypto adepts advise other traders to brace for extreme swings and troughs in the BTC/USD movement towards the end of this month as the conflict between the Core (Bitcoin’s developers) and miners will soon be resolved (or not).  

 

I bet while trading BTC you’ve probably never heard of their scuffles. No wonder, these were largely behind-the-scenes wrangles that lasted years. Behind them is an ideological split about coin’s rightful identity. One part of the crypto community wishes the Bitcoin became an asset like gold, another one wants it to act as a payment system.

 

The blockchain has a limit on how many transactions it can process. As the BTC’s popularity grew, transaction times and processing fees climbed to record levels making the blockchain less effective than other payment systems like Visa Inc. The two parties playing the major roles in BTC’s upkeep suggested two solutions to the following problems.

 

The Core, a group of developers responsible for upholding BTC’s cyber security, insisted on processing some of the blockchain’s data outside the main network (the proposal was called SegWit). They claimed that is the only way to reduce congestion. But the removal of the data from the blockchain significantly diminishes the influence of miners who have invested lots of money on giant server farms.

 

Miners acting generally against the establishment of SegWit technology agreed to support it on a condition that the overall block size will be increased.  This proposal got the name of SegWit2x (includes implementation of SegWit and increase of the block size limit).

 

Some advocates of the Core’s proposal push another agenda called UASF which would reject transactions that are not compliant with SegWit. If most of the miners fail to adopt SegWit by August 1, two versions of bitcoin will be created. This event will certainly send a bunch of shockwaves through the $41 billion market.  We just wanted you were beware of such moves and take precautionary measures beforehand.

 

More:


Link to comment
Share on other sites

EUR/USD: "ENGULFING" AT THE LOCAL LOW

15:25 11.07.2017

 

1499775867-bd04712d12507106d38ae211d05ee

 

There's a bearish "Tower" pattern, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards the 55 Moving Average. If we see any bullish pattern on this line afterwards, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement.

 

1499775867-a3c04c75132b07179ecb6dc0eada8

 

We've got a confirmed "Engulfing" at the local low. Considering confirmation of this pattern, the pair is likely going to get support on the 55 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, the current upward correction will go on.

 

More:


Link to comment
Share on other sites

USD/JPY: BULLS GOING TO TEST NEAREST RESISTANCE

15:28 11.07.2017

 

1499775867-0200c724b174af83323cc3f41755d

 

The price is still rising and there isn't any reversal pattern so far. So, bulls are likely going to test the nearest resistance, which could be a departure point for a bearish correction. Anyway, we should have an eye on the next "Window" as a possible intraday target.

 

1499775867-b72b6e303f5873fe8c8907cab2184

 

There's a "Shooting Star", but confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. So, we could have an intraday downward correction and a new local high afterwards.

 

More:


Link to comment
Share on other sites

THE GUIDANCE FOR JANET YELLEN’S TESTIMONY

15:31 11.07.2017

 

1499776279-18104c527d139ae2b6452c9a58b4c

 

Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve chairwoman, is set to deliver her semiannual testimony to Congressional lawmakers on Wednesday and Thursday. Traders will be focused on her view regarding interest rate policy and on the timing of the Fed’s balance sheet wind down. In the latest FOMC meeting minutes, the Fed remained silent about the timing of reducing its reinvestment flows. There was a hint that Fed officials would like to announce the start of the process of trimming asset holdings in a couple of months. That is probably at their meeting in September.

 

Some analysts believe that Yellen’s testimony will narrow the gap between the Fed’s assessment of the policy outlook and what the what the market is currently anticipating. Investors have doubted the Fed will raise rates for a third time this year, giving just 49.1% odds for a December rate increase and less than 20% odds for a rate hike in precedent months.  

 

Which effect Yellen’s testimony may produce on the USD? This is a bit tough questions. It might happen that nobody would listen what Yellen tells about Fed’s tightening path. Some analysts believe that investors are currently more interested in whether other major central banks will step into tightening cycle or not. The US dollar traders have already got used to the Fed’s continuous hawkishness. So, their reaction to Yellen’s testimony, even if it is hawkish enough, will not produce great moves. In contrast, any signal of monetary policy tightening form the Bank of England, the ECB, or other major central banks would be well reflected in the currencies’ price movements.

 

More:


Link to comment
Share on other sites

USD/CAD LOOKING FOR DOWNSIDE TARGETS

00:28 12.07.2017

 

Loonie has been weak and given that decline, it has started to correct its overall bias. Currently, buyers are being capped by the Fibonacci retracement zone established by the 61.8% and 50% in 1.2941 and 1.2901 respectively. That’s one trigger to sell the pair, with a target placed around 1.2826, at which is located the Fibo retracement level of -23.6%. To invalidate such scenario, USD/CAD needs to break above 1.2963 (78.6%) and consolidates above the 200 SMA at H1 chart with a higher high pattern.

 

RSI indicator remains slightly bullish, calling for more upside in the pair.

 

1499808492-9811b8216328388b9b1656517bfe2

 

More:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MORNING BRIEF FOR JULY 12

08:59 12.07.2017

 

A fresh twist in the controversy over Donald Trump’s alleged collusion with Russia provided a portion of volatility overnight. Trump’s eldest son released a streak of email in which he would welcome the possibility of Russia helping his father to win the election via compromising information about Hillary Clinton. The US dollar tumbled against most currencies on the news. Fed Governor Brainard added to the USD weakness having said that she would abstain from the provision of additional hike suggesting the Fed moved cautiously on a rate hike. She also signaled that she is comfortable with the Fed’s plans to reduce its balance sheet “soon”. How soon is one of the key questions for markets today.

 

USD/JPY moved lower from overnight shedding additional pips from the recent high of 114.45. The Bank of Japan’s bond-buying operations usually resulting in a bid for USD was not effective today. At the present moment, the pair is trading at 113.40. A move below this level would indicate that the bullish phase has ended and that a consolidation phase has started.

 

EUR/USD climbed to 1.1488 on a softer USD. The outlook has finally shifted from neutral to bullish. Not to this impulsive momentum, the euro has to continue to accelerate its pace upwards, otherwise, there will be a swift rollback. Chair Yellen’s testimony to Congress is today’s event highlight in the upcoming session. The key message is expected to remain unchanged with Fed introducing additional hike in the second half of this year and starting to trim its balance sheet.

 

Aussie recovered its last week losses reaching 0.7655 from the recent low of 0.7570. A weaker USD and iron ore prices upsurge were the main contributors to AUD’s rally. From current levels, AUD may grind higher towards 0.7685. A move towards 0.7710 will complicate; most likely there will be a rollback.

 

Kiwi has also managed to rise higher reversing some of its earlier losses. At the present moment, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7235. There is a scope for extension towards 0.7250. In contrast, a break below 0.7230 would indicate a move towards 0.7185/0.7150 levels.

 

Sterling posted some gains against USD in Tokyo morning. We will receive the US labor market statistics later today (at 11:30 MT time). The market expects the jobless rate to remain unchanged at 4.6%. Average hourly earnings will likely decline to 1.8% from 2.1% previously.

 

USD/CAD slipped some points in the Asian session and reached 1.2897 from yesterday’s high of 1.2940. Oil prices extended their gains yesterday as the U.S. government cut its crude production outlook for next year and as oil stockpiles declined. Brent oil futures rose to $48.35 from yesterday’s low at 46.27.

 

The Bank of Canada today will likely be the first major central bank to increase its rates following the Fed. The BOC communications made us believe that a rate hike is imminent, but when it is delivered, the Loonie will be well supported (unless BoC policymakers say that further tightening will be extremely gradual).

 

More:


Link to comment
Share on other sites

AUD/USD: BULLS RETURNED AUSSIE TO POSITIVE AREA

09:46 12.07.2017

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7630; resistance – 0.7660, 0.7680.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 0.7630; SL — 0.7610; TP1 — 0.7680; TP2 — 0.7700.

Reason: narrow bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are breaking out the SSA’s resistance and returned to the positive zone.

 

1499841977-42a68b4bfa2f0515dfbaa054e9dba

 

More:


Link to comment
Share on other sites

USD/JPY: DOLLAR IS CORRECTED TO CLOUD

09:47 12.07.2017

 

Technical levels: support – 113.30, 113.00; resistance –  113.90, 114.20.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 113.30; SL — 113.10; TP1 — 113.90; TP2 — 114.30.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; but the market in a correction phase to the Cloud.

 

1499841977-3dcc4d3b0e9d38341d309e86e7227

 

More:


Link to comment
Share on other sites

USD/CHF: FRANC ENTERED THE INTERSECTION

09:52 12.07.2017

 

On the USD/CHF daily chart, there is a struggle for the important level of 0.9636. If Bulls manage to push quotes higher, the risk of correction towards the current downtrend in the direction of 0.972 and higher will increase. In contrast, in the case of Bears’ victory, there will be a continuation of the downward movement towards targets 224%, 126.2% of the AB=CD and Crab patterns.

 

1499842236-a5903a7f3cf43bc4f33886526fd84

 

On the USD/CHF hourly chart, the result of the test of the support in the form of the lower border of the upward trading channel will indicate a further direction of the price movement. If Bears manage to test this level successfully, there will be a continuation of the downtrend. Their failure will lead to the development of correction.

 

1499842251-351a015a31e5fdb2fee97b43bc66a

 

More:


Link to comment
Share on other sites

EUR/USD: EURO SAW A CEILING

09:55 12.07.2017

 

On the EUR/USD daily chart quotes reached target 88.6% of the inverted Bat pattern. As a result, the risks of correction towards 1.1345 (78.6% from the last near-term downward wave + lower border of the upward trading channel) and lower.

 

1499842459-8afba167b3e7c15d0d5d28d0f3c7b

 

On the EUR/USD hourly chart quotes entered the convergence zone of 1.145 – 1.1505. There are two targets of the AB=CD pattern – 200% and 224%. A fall of quotes below the level of 1.1425 will be a signal for the realization of the strategy 2B base of Victor Sperandeo and increase the risks of activation of the Shark pattern.

 

1499842500-144c086f9efd0dd7367f2818eb875

 

More:


Link to comment
Share on other sites

EUR/USD: BEARISH "V-TOP" PATTERN

11:27 12.07.2017

 

1499847965-28fc8b4c85031061c1f21e3dd83cc

 

Bulls faced resistance at 1.1494, so we've got a bearish "V-top" pattern, which pushed the price lower. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.1425 - 1.1398 in the coming hours. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards the next resistance at 1.1494 - 1.1529.

 

1499847964-129efc181fda9b760df831fcb0773

 

We've got a "Double Top" pattern, which has been confirmed. Therefore, bears are likely going to test the 55 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line arrives afterwards, bulls will probably try to achieve the closest resistance at 1.1494.

 

More:


Link to comment
Share on other sites

GBP/USD: BULLS GOING TO REACH THE NEXT SUPPORT

11:31 12.07.2017

 

1499847964-ecd5a8feb0bd409376977113507cb

 

Bears faced support at 1.2817, but the pair is likely going to reach the next support at 1.2793 - 1.2768. Meanwhile, if we have a pullback from this area, there'll be an option to have an upward price movement in the direction of the 89 Moving Average.

 

1499847964-83297a016af71f691f7ecca979595

 

The price is consolidating near the last "Pennant" pattern. Also, there's support at 1.2817. In this case, the price is likely going to reach the nearest support at 1.2793 - 1.2768 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will have a green light to achieve resistance at 1.2830 - 1.2860.

 

More:


Link to comment
Share on other sites

EUR/USD: PULLBACK FROM 7/8 MM LEVEL

14:39 12.07.2017

 

1499859502-172ffe459d20735b9001c8b5f669e

 

There's a quite interesting moment on the Daily chart, cause we've got a pullback from 7/8 MM Level. However, the market is likely going to test this level once again. If the price couldn't fixate above 7/8 MM Level, bears will have a green light to reach 6/8 MM Level shortly.

 

1499859502-75b058323f0887a472ff6f830126b

 

Wave [v] of C has turned out to be an ending diagonal pattern. It seems like wave (iii) has just arrived, so bears are likely going to deliver wave (iv) in the short term. Meanwhile, there's an opportunity to have wave (v) of [v] of C afterwards.

 

More:


Link to comment
Share on other sites

EUR/USD: BEARISH "ENGULFING"

16:21 12.07.2017
 
1499865628-c424431428df292b79806515dcb5a
 
We've got a bearish "Engulfing", which hasn't been confirmed yet. In this case, the price is likely going to decline towards the nearest resistance in the short term.
 
1499865628-5de868ec8ee4514ef4a8f09aedff7
 
The 34 Moving Average has acted as support, so the market is likely going to test the next resistance in the coming hours. If any bearish pattern arrives afterwards, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline.
 
More:
Link to comment
Share on other sites

USD/JPY: "TWEEZERS" AND "DOJI"

16:23 12.07.2017

 

1499865628-229e6771090516e5799605fb2fc43

 

There are bearish patterns such a "Tweezers" and a "Doji", which both have been confirmed. So, the pair is likely going to test the 144 Moving Average line during the day.

 

1499865628-0505826fa68adae84936f96509ce1

 

The nearest "Window" has been broken, so the price is declining. If we see any bullish pattern on the closest support, there'll be an option to have an upward correction.

 

More:


Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...