FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears have won

12/5/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 1.0570/80; resistance – 1.0620, 1.0650.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 1.0620; SL — 1.0640; TP1 — 1.0570; TP2 – 1.0520.

 

Reason: bearish mood of Ichimoku Cloud and falling Senkou Span A; cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the lines are falling; the prices are under the Cloud.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11574

[riki143]

GBP/USD: under daily resistance

12/5/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 1.2630, 1.2680; resistance – 1.2730.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 1.2700; SL — 1.2720; TP1 — 1.2630; TP2 — 1.2550.

 

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; all lines of Ichimoku Indicator are rising; but the prices are under the strong daily resistance; overbought market.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11575

[riki143]

GBP/USD: under daily resistance

12/5/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 1.2630, 1.2680; resistance – 1.2730.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 1.2700; SL — 1.2720; TP1 — 1.2630; TP2 — 1.2550.

 

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; all lines of Ichimoku Indicator are rising; but the prices are under the strong daily resistance; overbought market.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11576

[riki143]

AUD/USD: along the SSB

12/5/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7420; resistance – 0.7450, 0.7470.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 0.7450; SL — 0.7470; TP1 — 0.7380; TP2 — 0.7340.

 

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under the Cloud and SSB resistance.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11577

[riki143]

USD/THB: short- and long-term outlook

12/5/2016

 

We must admit that Thai Bat carried itself well in the cross with USD in the wake of the King Bhumibol’s passing and Donald Trump’s unexpected win.  Strong Thailand’s fundamentals (strong GDP data, current account surplus, and prosperous tourism industry) underpin a stronger baht. Thailand’s central bank officials at their last meeting left their interest rate unchanged at 1.5% finding it appropriate for the gradual economic recovery. If oil prices continue their rally, Thai inflation rate may finally rise from the negative territory and allow the Thailand’s central bank not to recourse to additional easing measures. So, all these factors should force THB to rise. But the USD fascinating strengthening should overshadow positive impulses emanating from Thailand’s strong statistical data and central bank’s accommodative monetary policy. 

 

The USD/THB surged above 35.75 level since the US presidential election. There were lots of toing and froing overnight.The US dollar soared to 36.14; then, it slumped to 35.60 in the course of the latest session. On the downside, there are plenty of support lines located at 35.50, 35.41, 35.30. The nearest resistance lines are located at 35.70, 35.90, 36.05 and 36.50. They can be tested if we receive more US upbeat economic releases.You may take positions in USD/THB only above 35.70, stop loss at 35.58.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11558

[riki143]

EUR/USD: new "Window"

12/5/2016

 

 

There’s a “Hammer”, which has been confirmed enough. If the new “Window” acts as a resistance, the market is likely going to start falling down. As we can see on the Daily chart, bulls tested the nearest resistance area once again. Also, we’ve got a “High Wave”. If this pattern confirms, there’ll be an opportunity to have a new low.

 

 

We’ve got a “Shooting Star”, but this pattern is still unconfirmed. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the nearest Moving Averages. If we see a pullback from these lines, bulls will probably try to deliver a new local high.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11579

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bullish "Three Methods"

12/5/2016

 

 

The 21 Moving Average acted as a support, so we’ve got a “Harami” pattern, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest support level once again. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. In this case, bulls are likely going to move on.

 

 

We’ve got an “Engulfing”, which has a confirmation. Also, there’s a “Three Methods” pattern, so the pair is likely going to test the closest resistance. If we see a pullback from this level, bears will probably try to deliver a downward correction.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11580

[riki143]

Scalping strategies

12/5/2016

 

These trading strategies are designed only for those who prefer entering market frequently and taking small profits each time. To put it bluntly, these are the scalping strategies which should be employed on the lowest time frames available on the Metatrader 4 (1-minute and 5-minute time frames would be perfect).

 

 

First, I suggest to discuss the rapid-fire strategy and then to switch to the more ferocious one– piranha strategy.

 

 Rapid-fire strategy ingredients:

 

The most liquid currency pair – EUR/USD

The lowest and the most exhilarating timeframe available on the broker’s platform – M1.

Trading tools:

 

Parabolic SAR with default setting (step 0.02., max 0.2.)

 

Simple moving average, period 60. The SMA 60 is used for identification of the direction of the momentum. So, when the price is above SMA 60, you should go long. In the reverse scenario, if the price is below the SMA 60, go short.

 

“Rules of the game”

 

You should catch the moment when the market price moves above the SMA 60

Then, look for Parabolic SAR moving above the price.

If the first two conditions are respected, you may enter the market long. The market price should go above the Parabolic SAR, the parabolic SAR should be below the market price.  

The stop loss should be placed at 15 points below the entry price.

The profit target should be set at 10 points above the entry price.

The risk for this trade can be estimated at 15 points, the reward is 10 points. The risk to reward ratio is 1.5:1 (2% return against 3% risk).

 

 

The next strategy is called “piranha” after an omnivorous fish with very sharp teeth and strong jaws (it inhabits Venezuela’s rivers. This freshwater fish instantly bites its prey until it’s totally eaten. So, if decide to apply this “eating” technic to our trades, we should “bite” the market lots of time and chew off small profits.

 

“Piranha strategy ingredients”:

 

5-minute timeframe

GBP/USD currency pair.

Trading tools

 

Bollinger Bands with period 12, shift 0 and deviation 2 (default). Bollinger Bands are used for identification of the trading band of the GBP/USD. You should go long when prices touch the bottom band; the short trades should be taken when market prices reach the upper band.

 

“Rules of the game”

 

This strategy is designed for trading in a trend.

 

As we know piranhas are most active in the fresh river water, not in oceans and seas with strong currents, tides, and powerful waves. So, pretty much the same can be said about the piranha trading strategy:  you should avoid using this strategy after ground-shaking events or important releases.

 

First, you should wait until prices touch the bottom band of the indicator;

Then, you may enter long;

Set the stop loss at 10 points below the entry price;

Set the profit target at 5 points above the entry price.  

The risk for this strategy is 10 pips, while the reward is 5 pips. The risk-reward ratio – 2:1 (return – 1.5%, if we take 3% risk).

 

 

Strategies are taken from the book "17 proven currency trading strategies" written by Mario Singh 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11581

[riki143]

US dollar: outlook for Decmber 5-9

12/5/2016

 

Last week the greenback failed to continue its advance. US dollar index opened with a gap higher around 101.45 but then declined below 101.00.

 

American nonfarm payrolls showed gains of 178K, and the unemployment rate declined from 4.9% to 4.6%. The only disturbing thing is the decline in average hourly earnings, but all in all US inflation expectations remain high on the awaited Donald Trump’s policy and increase oil prices. All in all, the data are in line with the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in December. Markets have completely priced in this event, the rally in Treasury yields has paused, so at this point, the US dollar does not have strong bullish drivers in the short-term.

 

This week pay attention to comments from the Fed’s speakers and ISM manufacturing index on Monday. We expect sideways trading for the US currency. Support lies at 100.70 and 100.20, while resistance is at 101.50.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11582

[riki143]

EUR/USD: outlook for December 5-9

12/5/2016

 

Last week EUR/USD managed to stay above the multiyear support in the 1.0500 area. This support is really strong and some big change in fundamental factors is needed to make the euro go lower.

 

On Monday bears once again pulled EUR/USD to 20-month low as Italians voted against the constitutional reform on the referendum. Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is now going to resign, so there’s political uncertainty ahead for the nation. Italian banking sector is in particular danger. At the same time, the single currency was supported by the speculation that despite the fact that the European Central Bank may announce an extension of its quantitative program beyond March 2017, it will signal that QE is ultimately going to end. Although the euro area’s inflation accelerated to 0.6% in October, that’s still below the ECB’s 2% target. Such levels of inflation will allow the ECB to continue monetary stimulus. The market is already pretty ready to QE extension, so the negative impact from that on the euro is limited. At the same time, the confirmation that the ECB sees the end of bond purchases ahead is bullish for the euro.

 

EUR/USD may be traded either in a range between 1.0680 and 1.0550. Longer-term short positions are possible only if we get confirmation of the pair’s break below 1.0500. If the currency manages to recover above 1.0680 next levels to watch are at 1.0740 and 1.0770/1.0800.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11583

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for December 5-9

12/5/2016

 

The UK will release some economic data this week, although the figures probably won’t have a big impact on the Bank of England’s monetary policy, which is not expected to change in the coming months.

 

Political factors will be more important for the sterling. The UK Supreme Court is about to make a decision that could delay Prime Minister Theresa May’s plans to exit the EU. If the Court dismisses the government’s appeal, May won’t be able to trigger the Brexit process in March 2017. This would be positive for the pound. In addition, pay attention to the discussion on Britain’s access to the European single market. The positive talk will help the currency.

 

As large speculators partially close their bearish positions on the pound, GBP/USD may experience more growth this week. The pair has already managed to overcome 55-day MA, which is currently acting as support in the 1.2500 area. The bullish view provides an opportunity for extension to 1.2800 (100-day MA), 1.2850/60 (trendline resistance). The next resistance is at 1.2960. 

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11584

[riki143]

EUR/USD: flat in wave 2

12/5/2016

 

 

There’s a possible flat in wave 2, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. So, there’s an opportunity to have a bearish impulse in wave . If -2/8 MM Level turns out to be broken, we’re going to have another levels indication.

 

 

We’ve got a bullish impulse in wave [c] of 2. If the price finds a lodgement under 7/8 MM Level, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish movement. The intraday target is 6/8 MM Level.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11585

[riki143]

Is it right time for buying gold?

12/5/2016

 

Gold dropped to $1,162 overnight despite the growing threat of political instability in Europe (in the light of the recent outcome of Italian referendum). The yellow metal has been falling since Trump’s win on the expectations that the newly elected US president could introduce expansionary fiscal policies and spur the inflation rate growth accompanied with multiple interest rate increases. The investors moved their assets away from the safe-havens because of the rising stocks, high US yields. In the near term, strong US dollar and expectations of the Fed’s rate hike will continue to weigh on the gold prices.

 

There is an upside factor, however. The gold prices may rise next year due to the limited supply of gold. Because of the significant drop in gold prices this year, many producers decided to cut spending on the exploration of new gold mines. According to the Mark Bristow, chief executive of London-listed Randgold, the large undersupply is inevitable unless some major discoveries of high-grade ore bodies are made, but this is a remote possibility.

 

The technical picture for the gold is still bearish. So, it’s not the best time for sales. The nearest supports lie at $1,125.75 and $1,097.3 (the lower border of Ichimoku cloud). On the upside, there are several resistances located at $1,188, $1,211,65 (23,4% Fibo retracement level from the July 11 high).

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11586

[riki143]

AUD/JPY rising inside sharp ©-wave

12/5/2016

 

AUD/JPY rising inside sharp ©-wave

Next buy target – 86.00

AUD/JPY has been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the minor impulse wave 5. This impulse wave belongs to the sharp intermediate upward impulse ©, which is a part of the long-term upward ABC correction ? from June. The active impulse wave 5 started earlier – when the pair reversed up from the strong support level 81.40 (previous strong resistance level and the buy target set in our preceding report for this instrument).

 

AUD/JPY is likely to rise further in the accelerated impulse waves 5 and © in the direction of the next buy target at the pivotal resistance level 86.00 (which stopped the previous intermediate correction (2) in April, as can be seen below).

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11587

[riki143]

EUR/JPY reached buy targets 120.00 and 122.00

12/5/2016

 

EUR/JPY reached buy targets 120.00 and 122.00

Next buy target - 124.20

EUR/JPY continues to rise after the recent breakout of the resistance levels 120.00 and 122.00 (both of which were set as the buy targets in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The price earlier reversed up sharply from the aforementioned price level 120.00 – acting as support now after it was broken. The upward reversal from the support level 120.00 accelerated the active C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from June.

 

EUR/JPY is expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the resistance level 124.20 (top of the earlier correction 2 and the forecast price for the completion of the active C-wave).

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11588

[riki143]

AUD/USD before RBA Interest Rate Decision: A bullish momentum is coming?

12/6/2016

 

Today at 03:30 GMT will be published the Australian (RBA) interest rate decision, where the markets are widely expecting an unchanged number at 1.5%. Central bank’s officials had been noting that current cash rate is reflecting the overall Aussie’s economy growth and didn’t bring some hints about further cuts or hikes in their latest meeting’s minutes. Also, RBA’s members said in the past that inflation target could be reached at the time.

 

Our technical analysis for AUD/USD at H4 chart is showing a strong support found around the psychological zone of 0.7300 and now, Aussie is looking to break the resistance level of 0.7489 ahead of the interest rate decision. If the statement comes in very optimistic, the pair could cling up towards the 0.7562 level, where is located the 200 SMA. However, a pullback at the current stage can lead the pair to test the bullish trend line formed since November 21st lows.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11589

[riki143]

Morning brief for December 6, 2016

12/6/2016

 

EUR/USD dropped to 1.0502 yesterday after the outcome of the Italian referendum had been announced. Then, the euro managed to stabilize and jumped above 1.0790 overnight as investors judged the selloff was overdone. There were some more news flows from the Eurozone countries. French PM Valls threw his hat into the Presidential ring to raise the chance of the left-wing Socialist party in the election in April. Also, there were Fed speakers on the wires yesterday. All-time cautious NY Fed’s Bill Dudley said that he favors a tighter monetary stance. Today traders will focus on German factory orders, the results of ECOFIN meetings, the US trade balance data, revised nonfarm productivity and factory orders.

 

 

USD/JPY rose above 114.80 level on rising 2-year and 10-year US bond yields and strong US data releases. Labor Market Conditions Index (Yellen’s favorite one) was stronger than expected. The US non-manufacturing ISM for November was upbeat as well.

 

AUD/USD barely changed after the RBA cash rate announcement. The RBA board decided to leave rates on hold at 1.5%. This decision was well priced in by the market, so, there were some insignificant wobbles in the chart, nothing more. The RBA Governor Philip Lowe claimed that the bank will continue to scrutinize the macroeconomic releases to make some amendments to its present monetary policy or to leave it unchanged at the next meeting on February 7.

 

 

Kiwi slumped below 0.7095 on the Asian session. Yesterday we got an announcement that New Zealand PM John Key is going to resign. Today we will be waiting for global dairy trade index that can influence the movement of NZD.

 

USD/CAD edged up on the session. Pay attention to trade balance data and Ivey PMI both coming from Canada at 3:30 pm GMT+2 and at 5:00 pm respectively.

 

GBP/USD continues its rally. At the present moment, the pair is trading above 1.2749 level. Today’s economic calendar for the UK is empty. There are no data releases from the UK that can influence the pound.   

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11590

[riki143]

USD/CHF: bears is waiting for correction

12/6/2016

 

On the USD/CHF daily chart, after a short consolidation, there was a long-awaited correction towards the uptrend. The outlook for this currency pair is still bullish, so, the rollbacks can be used for the opening of long positions.We may wait for the upward movement if target 161.8% in the "Crab" inverted pattern is fulfilled. 

 

 

On the USD/CHF hourly chart, "bears" are gathering momentum for an attack on the diagonal support in the form of the lower boundary of the upward trading channel. If the support is tested successfully, it will increase risks of implementation of 88.6% and 113% targets in the "Shark" pattern.

 

 

Recommendations:

 

BUY 1,0015 SL 0,9960 TP 1,02,

 

BUY 0,996 SL 0,9905 TP 1,02. 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11591

[riki143]

EUR/GBP: bulls started counterattack

12/6/2016

 

On the EUR/GBP daily chart, there is a correction towards the "bearish" medium-term trend. The "Crab" pattern may determine the potential for the downward movement. Its targets are located at 0.8175 (113%), 0.8017 (127.2%) and 0.763 (161.8%). Despite successes of buyers, sellers remain their control over the pair. In such circumstances, traders can use the strategy of selling on the rise of the prices. 

 

 

On the EUR/GBP hourly chart, bulls' counterattack made quotes to go out from the downward trading channel. At the present moment, prices move towards the target 88.6% in the "Crab" inverted pattern.

 

 

Recommendation: SELL 0,856 SL 0,8615 TP 0,8175.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11592

[riki143]

EUR/USD: Euro retuned into the Cloud again

12/6/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 1.0690; resistance – 1.0790.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 1.0690; SL — 1.0670; TP1 — 1.0790; TP2 – 1.0840.

 

Reason: bearish mood of Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A; cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the lines are horizontal; the prices are in the Cloud.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11594

[riki143]

AUD/USD: on Tenkan’s support

12/6/2016

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7450; resistance – 0.7490.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 0.7450; SL — 0.7430; TP1 — 0.7490; TP2 — 0.7540.

 

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the rising Senkou Span A; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in the Cloud.

 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11595

[riki143]

What will happen with the euro after the ECB meeting?

12/6/2016

 

Morgan Stanley’s strategists believe that the ECB will keep rates on hold at this week’s meeting, but can expand its QE purchase program. But they consider different scenarios with various responses from the euro.

 

Potential scenarios and the reaction of the euro.

 

1. QE purchases extension for 6 months after March. This expansion is well priced in by the market participants, so, it wouldn’t be surprising for markets. The reaction of EUR/USD should be restrained. To extend purchases and leave an expectation in the market that they could extend again, the ECB should introduce some changes to its present program. Which kind of changes?

 

- The ECB may announce that it is not going to use the capital key to allocate purchases. This option will be positive for periphery countries of the Eurozone, but bad for the German bund. The reaction of the euro should be positive in this case. The ECB may not express itself explicitly, it can only hint that it is going to be flexible (in this case the euro’s reaction won’t be stormy). If the ECB is more explicit, the euro may react with some moves.

 

- The ECB can recourse to buying bonds below the deposit rate. This decision will be negative for the euro.

 

- The ECB may commit itself to changing the maximum limit on buying per issuer. This approach should be bullish for German bund curve. EUR/USD will fall, if there is a larger decrease in bund yields than US Treasury yields.

 

- The ECB may address the scarcity of bonds. If there is a rise in short end rates (it would dissipate fears over the bond scarcity), the euro may gather momentum.

 

2. The ECB announces the cut of its interest rate. This scenario is not expected by the market. If it is realized, EUR/USD should fall significantly.

 

3. ECB decides to extend its QE purchases by more than 6 months beyond March. This option is not expected by the market. EUR/USD will be poised to weakening.

 

4. ECB doesn’t change its policy stance. This approach will cause German bunds to rise substantially and push EUR higher.

 

5. ECB extends corporate bond purchases, but not government bond. Basically, in this case, the ECB will commit to the tapering of the bond purchasing program. This scenario is unlikely, and if it’s realized, it will be positive for EUR. 

 

The ECB meeting will be held on Thursday, December 8. 

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11596

[riki143]

Key option levels for Tuesday, December 6th

12/6/2016

 

EUR/USD

 

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Neutral

Changes in the open interest + 3 969 ? - 18 790 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.0795; 1.0819; 1.0838; 1.0862

Closest support levels 1.0747; 1.0712; 1.0686; 1.0655

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.0795, with target points at 1.0819 and 1.0838

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0747 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0712 and 1.0686

 

GBP/USD

 

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 481 ? + 457 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.2777; 1.2802; 1.2833; 1.2871

Closest support levels 1.2727; 1.2694; 1.2650; 1.2580

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2777, with target points at 1.2802 and 1.2833

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2727 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2694 and 1.2650

 

 

USD/JPY

 

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Neutral

Changes in the open interest + 314 ? + 492 ?

Closest resistance levels 113.82; 114.14; 114.39; 114.73

Closest support levels 113.48; 113.28; 112.97; 112.57

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 113.82, with the target points at 114.14 and 114.39

Alternative scenario Moving below 113.48 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 113.28 and  112.97

 

 

 

USD/CAD 

 

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bullish

Changes in the open interest + 359 ? + 302 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.3280; 1.3308; 1.3362; 1.3435

Closest support levels 1.3236; 1.3201; 1.3142; 1.3067

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3280, with the target points at 1.3308 and 1.3362

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3236 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3201 and 1.3142

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11597

[riki143]

EUR/USD: Moving Average acted as a resistance

12/6/2016

 

 

We’ve got a “Double Bottom”, which has been confirmed enough. Also, the 89 Moving Average has acted as a resistance. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the nearest support area at 1.0708 – 1.0685 in the short term. If a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement.

 

 

The price break the Moving Averages, so we’ve got a “V-Top” pattern here. In this case, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.0708 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to reach a resistance at 1.0815 – 1.0850 afterwards.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11598

[riki143]

GBP/USD: unstoppable bulls

12/6/2016

 

 

The price is rising. Also, we’ve got a resistance at 1.2770, so the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.2672. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement towards a resistance at 1.2770 – 1.2795.

 

 

The price is still consolidating along a resistance at 1.2734. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline in the direction of the nearest support at 1.2703 – 1.2672. At the same time, bulls will probably try to achieve a resistance at 1.2770 – 1.2795 afterwards.

 

More:

https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11599