riki143 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 GBP/USD: outlook for July 18-24 7/18/2016 British pound strengthened by more than 3% during the past week. Sterling recovered because of 2 main reasons: return of political stability to the UK and the Bank of England’s decision not to ease monetary policy in July. Theresa May replaced David Cameron as Britain’s Prime Minister. Although May was a supporter of the UK staying in the European Union, she underlined that “Brexit means Brexit” and the country will leave the EU. Still, it looks like the leaving will be a long process. British central bank didn’t cut the benchmark interest on Thursday, although such move was already priced in GBP/USD. As a result, traders started closing massive GBP shorts pushing the currency higher. Only one member of the central bank voted for a rate cut. Governor Carney decided to wait for the post0referendum economic data, but gave a strong signal of easing next month. Next week we may see more covering of GBP short positions, which should provide support for the pound. Note, though, that there are serious resistance levels lying ahead: 1.3500 and 1.3830. Taking into account the fact that more monetary stimulus will almost certainly come from the Bank of England in 3 weeks at the August meeting, investors will likely use the pound’s recovery to enter in new short positions. Support is at 1.3120 and 1.3000. In British economic calendar next week pay attention to inflation figures on Tuesday, labor market data on Wednesday and retail sales and public sector net borrowing on Thursday. Only very week figures could drive sterling significantly lower. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9627 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 EUR/USD: outlook for July 18-24 7/18/2016 During the past week EUR/USD remained within range of the 2 previous weeks. The pair got strength from higher EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY, but terror attack in Nice on Thursday together with good US statistics didn’t let the bulls to develop the move to the upside. Euro area’s inflation figures were in line with forecasts. Headline CPI posted only the second gain in 2016 and the figures are still far below the European Central Bank’s target. Traders will look forward to more policy easing from the ECB that will meet on Thursday. However, the expectations declined after the Bank of England decided to keep policy unchanged during the past week. In addition, as the ECB’s policy is already very accommodative, new steps tend to have less and less impact on EUR/USD. So, any short positions should have conservative targets. Other important events in the euro area’s economic calendar include Germany’s and region’s ZEW economic sentiment index on Tuesday and European flash manufacturing & services PMIs on Friday. On the daily chart 50-day MA went below 100-day MA providing bearish signal. Resistance lies at 1.1160 and 1.1260. Support is at 1.1000 and 1.0920. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9628 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 GBP/USD: outlook for July 18-24 7/18/2016 British pound strengthened by more than 3% during the past week. Sterling recovered because of 2 main reasons: return of political stability to the UK and the Bank of England’s decision not to ease monetary policy in July. Theresa May replaced David Cameron as Britain’s Prime Minister. Although May was a supporter of the UK staying in the European Union, she underlined that “Brexit means Brexit” and the country will leave the EU. Still, it looks like the leaving will be a long process. British central bank didn’t cut the benchmark interest on Thursday, although such move was already priced in GBP/USD. As a result, traders started closing massive GBP shorts pushing the currency higher. Only one member of the central bank voted for a rate cut. Governor Carney decided to wait for the post0referendum economic data, but gave a strong signal of easing next month. Next week we may see more covering of GBP short positions, which should provide support for the pound. Note, though, that there are serious resistance levels lying ahead: 1.3500 and 1.3830. Taking into account the fact that more monetary stimulus will almost certainly come from the Bank of England in 3 weeks at the August meeting, investors will likely use the pound’s recovery to enter in new short positions. Support is at 1.3120 and 1.3000. In British economic calendar next week pay attention to inflation figures on Tuesday, labor market data on Wednesday and retail sales and public sector net borrowing on Thursday. Only very week figures could drive sterling significantly lower. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9627 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 AUD/USD: outlook for July 18-24 7/18/2016 AUD/USD breached resistance at 0.7570 at the beginning of the past week and spent the rest days consolidating above this level. Australian dollar rose as the nation’s labor market data were rather well showing that employment numbers have risen in recent months. Moreover, political uncertainty in Australia finally ended as the ruling coalition managed to secure majority in the new parliament that will allow it’s to form a government. In addition, the overall market’s risk sentiment improved encouraging demand for Aussie. Data from China was especially helpful. Technically the break above resistance line connecting April and June highs is a positive signal. Not, however, that pairs approaching resistance of the descending 200-week MA in the 0.7700 area. The recent move to the upside isn’t strongly supported by technical indicators. Good data from the United States and some expectations of the Reserve Bank pf Australia’s rate cut in August may put AUD/USD under renewed bearish pressure. The RBA will release July monetary policy meeting minutes on Tuesday. Support is at 0.7600 ahead of 0.7500 and 0.7475. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9630 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 USD/JPY: outlook for July 18-24 7/18/2016 It was a week of a 5% correction to the upside in USD/JPY: the pair rose to 106.30 showing the biggest weekly gain since 1999. Yen weakened for 2 reasons. Firstly, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke met with Japanese authorities fueling speculation that the Bank of Japan might provide "helicopter money", which would involve the central bank directly financing government spending. Secondly, the market’s risk sentiment improved, and demand for Japanese yen as a safe haven currency declined. Britain managed to restore political stability as Theresa May became new Prime Minister, while Chinese data eased some concerns about the nation’s economic slowdown: latest growth, industrial output and retail sales figures exceeded forecasts. Next week there will be few economic data releases in both the US and Japan, so the fundamental picture probably won’t change much. Above 106.60 (200-week MA, downtrend resistance line) resistance is at 107.60 (April 4 lows), 108.60 (100-day MA) ahead of 110.00 (psychological level). Support is at 103.80 and 102.70. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9629 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 GBP/USD & MPC member's speech: Looking to resume the post-Brexit's bearish bias? 7/18/2016 Following a very volatile week for GBP/USD, we'll have today at 08:15 GMT a speech from London by MPC member Martin Weale, whom it's expected to talk about Brexit, and we'll see if he gives further hints about a rate hike or cut in August. It would be interesting to see if Weale can provide that because Cable was profoundly affected by recent positive US economic data that strengthened the US dollar, but bear in mind that the Bank of England noted about low inflation levels. The technical scenario for the pair at H1 chart is giving a strong support located around the 1.3103 level, where we can found the 200 SMA. Above that zone, we can expect a rebound towards the 1.3317 level and a breakout above it will expose the 1.3458, which was a significant resistance during last week, and that will happen if Weale's speech is more hawkish than expected. In the dovish scenario, GBP/USD should consolidate before the 1.3103 to test the historical lows below the 1.2850 mark. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9632 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 EUR/USD: the trick of the bears 7/18/2016 EUR/USD is consolidating within 1.1000-1.1750 range on the daily chart. The bears are in control. This may be seen from the fact that the pair breached thw lower border of the medium-term uptrend and then retested it. We recommend selling the pair on its attempts to recover. On H1 EUR/USD reached 88.6% of the "Shark" pattern's target. After that there was a correction. The pair's currently finishing to form 5-0 pattern. Recoil from 1.1079 (38.2%), 1.1095 (50%) and 1.1112 (61.8%) will provide a signal for opening short positions. Recommendation: SELL 1,1079 SL 1,1150 TP 1,0890; SELL 1095 SL 1,1150 TP 1,0890; SELL 1,1112 SL 1,1150 TP 1,0890 EUR More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9633 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 GBP/USD: the bulls got tired 7/18/2016 GBP/USD reached 88.6% of the "Shark" pattern's target. If the bulls fail to return above resistance at 1.3323 in the near term (23.6% Fibo of the last descending wave), the bears will be able to regain control. Trend remains bearish. It's target is at 1.26 (127.2% according to AB=CD). As long as the pair remains below 1.3323, sell pound versus the US dollar. On H1 GBP/USD came to the lower border of the short-term bullish channel. Successful test of 1.3167 with the following return to 1.3093 will trigger the "Shark" pattern.Target is at 1.2920. Recommendation: SELL 1,3167 SL 1,3267 TP1 1,3017 TP2 1,2920 GBP More: [url=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9634]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9634[/uIRL] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 EUR/USD: "Double Top" bring bears back into the market 7/18/2016 The price has faced a resistance at 1.1168, which was strengthened by the 89 Moving Average. Also, there’s a “Double Top” pattern, which brought bears into the market. Finally, sellers reached a support at 1.1015, which led to the current upward correction. Considering a local “V-Bottom” pattern, the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest support at 1.1120. If a pullback from here happens afterwards, there’ll be a chance to see another downward movement in the direction of a support at 1.1001 – 1.0970. As we can see on the one-hour chart, bears got a support at 1.1014, which led to form a “V-Bottom” pattern, so there’s a consolidation under the nearest resistance at 1.1074. Therefore, the market is likely going to rise towards the next resistance at 1.1097 – 1.1120 in the short term. However, if we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to return into the market. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9636 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 EUR/USD: "Double Top" bring bears back into the market 7/18/2016 The price has faced a resistance at 1.1168, which was strengthened by the 89 Moving Average. Also, there’s a “Double Top” pattern, which brought bears into the market. Finally, sellers reached a support at 1.1015, which led to the current upward correction. Considering a local “V-Bottom” pattern, the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest support at 1.1120. If a pullback from here happens afterwards, there’ll be a chance to see another downward movement in the direction of a support at 1.1001 – 1.0970. As we can see on the one-hour chart, bears got a support at 1.1014, which led to form a “V-Bottom” pattern, so there’s a consolidation under the nearest resistance at 1.1074. Therefore, the market is likely going to rise towards the next resistance at 1.1097 – 1.1120 in the short term. However, if we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to return into the market. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9636 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 GBP/USD: "Flag" points to a possible intraday upward movement 7/18/2016 The pair reached the 55 Moving Average, so we’ve got a “Double Top” pattern, which led to decline towards a support at 1.3116. There’s a local “V-Bottom”, so the market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.3471 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens later on, bears will probably try to catch a support at 1.3015 – 1.2849. The pair reached the 55 Moving Average, so we’ve got a “Double Top” pattern, which led to decline towards a support at 1.3116. There’s a local “V-Bottom”, so the market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.3471 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens later on, bears will probably try to catch a support at 1.3015 – 1.2849. There’s a support at 1.3104, which led to form a “Double Bottom”, so the price is consolidating under between Moving Averages. Also, we’ve got a possible local “Flag” pattern, so the pair is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.3399 during the day. Considering a probable pullback from this level, we should keep an eye on a support at 1.3104 – 1.3015 as the next bearish target. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9637 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 EUR/USD: euro again under the cloud 7/18/2016 During Friday's session Eurodollar fell below H4 Ichimoku cloud. The bulls failed to test the upper boundary (Senkou Span and decided to give up the struggle. Therefore, trading is now carried under the cloud, in the negative zone. Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-sen cancelled the effect of the golden cross. A cloud still has a negative character. We expect the bears to become more active. Technical levels: support - 1.1030; resistance – 1.1090. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.1080; SL — 1.1100; TP1 — 1.1030; TP2 — 1.1000. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9642 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 USD/JPY: the bulls want to attack again 7/18/2016 On Friday the currency pair USD/JPY corrected into the Tenkan-Kijun channel. But the bullish sentiment doesn't leave the market. The prices reached the positive region supported by Kijun-sen and in the near future the uptrend may resume. Note, that the golden cross is still actual and the Ichimoku cloud is expanding upward. It’s confirming the strength of the bulls. Technical levels: support – 105.10; resistance – 106.00, 106.40. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 105.50; SL — 105.40; TP1 — 106.00; TP2 — 106.40. 2. Sell — 106.40; SL — 106.60; TP1 — 105.10; TP2 — 104.10. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9644 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 EUR/USD: "Engulfing" helped bears to get up speed 7/18/2016 [iG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/9649/1807eurusdh4.png[/img] The price has got a resistance on the upper “Window” and the 89 Moving Average. So, we’ve got an “Engulfing” at the local high, which has been strongly confirmed. Therefore, bears are likely going to move on in the short term, but only when the current local correction ends. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last candles seem like an “Engulfing” pattern, so today’s candle is probably going to be black. Bears have been pushing the market lower and lower. The last “Three Methods” pattern acted as a resistance for several times, so the price is likely going to test the local low once again. If we see a pullback later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of the Moving Averages. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9649 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 USD/JPY: unconfirmed “Harami” boosts bullish pressure 7/18/2016 The last bearish candles haven’t been confirmed, so the market is likely going to reach the upper “Window” in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s unconfirmed “Harami”, which makes possible an achievement the nearest resistance line. There’s a “Harami” at the local low, but its confirmations is a quite weak. Therefore, if the price gets a support in the 34 Moving Average, there’ll be an opportunity to have a new high shortly. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9650 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 USD/CNH rising inside impulse waves (iii), 5 and (3) 7/18/2016 USD/CNH rising inside impulse waves (iii), 5 and (3) Next buy target – 6.7450 USD/CNH continues to rise inside the 3rd minor impulse wave (iii) of the impulse 5 (which is a part of the sharp intermediate impulse wave (3) from April). The active impulse wave (iii) started earlier this month – when the pair reversed up from the upper trendline of the recently broken sharp daily up channel from April (acting as support now after it was broken). USD/CNH is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the strong multi-month resistance level 6.7450 (top of the previous primary impulse wave ① and the forecast price for the completion of the active impulse waves 5 and (3)). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9651 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 EUR/USD & German ZEW indicator: Looking to trade below 1.1000? 7/19/2016 Today at 09:00 GMT will be released the German ZEW economic sentiment, a survey based on financial experts' assessment of Germany's economy for next six months, in terms of directions. Last reading was very positive, with a rising from 6.4 to 19.2, beating the expectations of 5.1 for June. However, July's forecast is seeing a decline to 8.2 and that could weigh on EUR against other currencies on the Forex market. The H1 chart's view for EUR/USD is sideways, as the pair is still trading around the 200 SMA zone. A pullback can happen towards the 1.1042 level, which is very close to a bullish trend line projected from post-Brexit's low. If ZEW reading is weaker-than-expected, then we could see a decline to the support level of 1.1015. However, if July's release is better than analysts' forecast, we should see a rally beyond 1.1111 resistance zone. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9654 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 USD/JPY: the bulls want more 17/19/2016 On the daily USD/JPY chart the bulls are getting ready to seize the upper border of the downtrend channel. If they succeed, the odds of the bullish reversal will increase. The buyers' attack is aimed at 127.2% of the Crab pattern target. Close to it there's 38.2% Fibo of the last descending wave. As a result, we may see the convergence area of 108.5/109.00. The closest support is at 104.87. On H1 USD/JPY correction to 104.83 (23.6% Fibo of the latest bullish wave), 104.4 (target at 78.6% of the Gartley pattern) and 103.9 (38.2% Fibo) should be used to open long positions. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9656 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 EUR/USD: new local high is coming soon because of the "Flag" 7/19/2016 There’s a “Double Bottom”, which led to the current upward price movement. Also, we’ve got a “Triangle”, so the market is likely going to move up in the direction of the 55 Moving Average. If we see a pullback from this line afterwards, bears will probably try to get a support at 1.1015 – 1.1001. As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a flat in progress between a resistance by the Moving Average lines and a support by the level at 1.1057. At the same time, we’ve got a “Flag”, so the pair is likely going to reach the closest resistance area, which is near the local downtrend. However, if bulls be stopped here, there’ll be an opportunity to see a decline towards a support at 1.1024 – 1.1014. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9657 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 GBP/USD: bearish "Triple Tops" 7/19/2016 The price has formed a “Double Top” pattern, which led to decline towards a support at 1.3116. Nevertheless, there’s a possible “Flag”. If it confirms, the price is likely going to get a support at 1.3116 – 1.3015 in the short term. However, is a pullback from here happens afterwards, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.3471 – 1.3614. We’ve got a “Triple Top”, so the price is consolidating under the Moving Averages. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.3104 during the day. If bears can’t break this level and we see a pullback from it, an upward intraday movement will be on the table. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9658 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 EUR/USD: the Euro keeps standing under a cloud 7/19/2016 During yesterday's session the Eurodollar traded near the lower boundary of the four-hour Ichimoku cloud. Trades was moderate, in a very narrow range. We pointed to the cross formed by the dead cross and the expanding of the cloud to downward. Therefore we still to expect the resumption of downtrend. Technical levels: support - 1.1030; resistance – 1.1090. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.1070/80; SL — 1.1100; TP1 — 1.1000; TP2 — 1.0950. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9659 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 AUD/USD: the Aussie fell into a cloud 7/19/2016 The Australian dollar yesterday stood firm over a four-hour Ichimoku cloud. But the Bulls did not want to continue the uptrend – there is a resistance of the Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-sen lines. Today’s morning the Aussie unexpectedly passed their position, falling into the cloudy zone. And now the trades are conducted in the area of 75th figure. Obviously, we will see testing the lower boundary of the cloud so soon. Technical levels: support – 0.7490, 0.7470; resistance – 0.7560. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7490; SL — 0.7470; TP1 — 0.7560; TP2 — 0.7600. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9660 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 USD/JPY: the Bulls stumbled on 106.00. 7/19/2016 The currency pair USD/JPY kept above the line Tenkan-sen during yesterday’s session and the bulls tried to continue the uptrend. However, in the area of 106.30/40, as we noted earlier, there is a strong resistance that does not pass its higher. Given the local overbought of the market we expect a correction to the Ichimoku cloud. Technical levels: support – 105.10; resistance – 106.00, 106.40. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 106.00; SL — 106.20; TP1 — 105.10; TP2 — 104.10. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9661 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 EUR/USD: bears is about to deliver a new low 7/19/2016 The main trend is a still bearish. Also, the middle of the last huge black candle has acted as a resistance. However, the last “Engulfing” pattern hasn’t been confirmed, so the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance once again. If we see a pullback from this line, bears will probably try to deliver a new low. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a bullish “Harami”, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. Anyway, bears are likely going to reach the closest support line soon. The price has been moving up and down in a range of the “Window”. Moreover, there’s a strong support by the 55 Moving Average, but the last candles are so variable. Under this circumstances, the pair is likely going to get a resistance on the 89 Moving Average, which could reverse the price movement in the direction of the last low. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9671 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 USD/JPY: "Window" has been waiting for bulls 7/19/2016 Bulls are very strong, so we don’t have any reversal patterns so far. Also, the price has got a support on the 144 Moving Average, so the market is likely going to reach the nearest “Window” in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last “Harami” pattern hasn’t been confirmed, which makes possible an achievement of the 34 Moving Average. The price found a support on the 13 Moving Average. Moreover, there’s a confirmed “Hammer”, so the pair is likely going to test the last high shortly. If we see a pullback from here, there’ll be a chance to see a local correction towards the Moving Averages. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9672 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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