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Non-farm payrolls: up 321k, US labour markets surge, job gains widespread.

 

 

FXStreet (London) - Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a huge jump in US job numbers.

 

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 321,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8 percent.

 

Job gains were widespread, led by growth in professional and business services, retail trade, health care, and manufacturing.

 

The increase compares with an average monthly gain of 224,000 over the prior 12 months.

 

Today’s print marks the tenth straight month of 200k+ gains, the longest run since 1995. 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 05, 2014

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AUD/USD plummets after US employment report to fresh 4-year low

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD dropped from 0.8365 to 0.8319 in a few minutes on the back of an upbeat US jobs report that boosted greenback across the board. 

 

According to the US Labor Department, the economy added 321.000 jobs in November, above the 230.000 expected by market consensus while the unemployment rate remained at 5.8% as expected. 

 

During the last few minutes the pair moved slightly off session lows and was trading at 0.8330/35, headed toward the fourth daily decline in a row and the lowest close since June 2010. 

 

Despite falling against the US dollar, the aussie managed to rise versus the yen after NFP. AUD/JPY was trading slightly above 101.00 at the highest in three days.  

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 05, 2014

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US equities likely to applaud the labor market strength

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The activity in the US index futures indicates the Wall Street is likely to open on a positive note after the monthly Non-farm payrolls data printed way higher than the market expectation. 

 

At the time of writing, the DJIA futures are trading 0.15% higher, while the S&P futures are up 0.02%. The NASDAQ futures have gained 0.11%, while the S&P VIX futures have weakened by 1.79%. 

 

The labor department data released earlier today showed the economy added whooping 321K jobs in November, beating market expectations of 230K additions. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained steady at 5.8%. Post open, the Commerce Department is also due to release a report on factory orders in the month of October. However, the report is not likely to attract much attention amid the focus on the jobs data.

 

It will be interesting to see how the stock markets react throughout the day today, since the stellar jobs data is likely to push up expectations of a sooner-than-expected interest rate hike in the US, something which stock markets usually do not like. 

 

 


 

 

Dec 05, 2014

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WTI Crude at day’s low

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Crude oil prices in the US remain weak despite a strong monthly jobs report in the US as sentiment soured after Saudi Arabia offered biggest discount on record to its oil customers across Asia. 

 

WTI Crude for January delivery traded 1.39% lower at USD 65.85/barrel at the time of writing. Moreover, Crude prices hardly reacted to a stellar jobs report in the US as markets priced-in a sort of double whammy from the Saudis. Moreover, markets which were recovering from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting (OPEC) group’s decision to hold production levels unchanged, were caught off-guard after the Saudis state run oil company decided to extend its discount for Arab Light sales to Asia next month to USD 2/barrel below a regional benchmark. 

 

Meanwhile, the inventory data released in the US yesterday also hurt prices. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released yesterday showed oil production expanded to 9.08 million barrels a day through Nov. 28, the fastest rate in weekly records that started in January 1983. 

 

WTI Crude Technical Levels

 

Crude has an immediate support located at 65.41, under which prices can fall to 64.31 levels. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at 66.71 and 67.77 levels. 

 

 


 

 

Dec 05, 2014

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Should Greece get the final bailout trance? – Tip Tv

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Tip Tv Team and Tom Elliot, International Investment Strategist at deVere Group, discuss about the Eurogroup’s meeting involving Greece’s bailout problem.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Eurogroup's meeting today on whether Greece should get the final tranche of its bailout package? If they demand an extension, which is likely, this could put into doubt gvt's ability to stop anti-austerity Syriza wining a February election and if they do we are back to talk of Greece leaving the euro.” 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 08, 2014

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NZD/USD moves into positive territory

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Kiwi has recovered losses to trade in green against the Greenback, tracking a decline in the US treasury yields and a rebound in the EUR and GBP. 

 

The NZD/USD pair now trades 0.19% higher at 0.7677, after having recovered from the low of 0.7609 levels. Moreover, the US dollar is witnessing a correction against most of its G-10 peers as a bout of risk-aversion in the Asian markets pushed the US 10-y r treasury yields lower to 2.25%. 

 

The Kiwi had also come under pressure earlier today after the electronic retail card spending in November declined 0.1% month-on-month, against the expected gain of 0.2%. 

 

NZD/USD Technical Levels

 

The pair has an immediate resistance located at 0.7685, above which gains could be extended to 0.7716 (5-DMA). Meanwhile, support is seen at 0.7660 (Nov 7 low) and 0.7607.  

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 09, 2014

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GBP/USD steadies ahead of UK Factory numbers

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The cables trades with moderate gains during the European morning, as traders eye UK manufacturing and industrial activity data to be released shortly.

 

Currently, the GBP/USD pair trades at 1.5672 levels, 0.12% higher from the previous session’s close of 1.5653. The pair continues to trade cautiously as market awaits fresh industrial and manufacturing output data from the UK, which may show deceleration in the factory growth in October.

 

The UK Office for National Statistics is expected to report industrial output rose 0.2% in October following a 0.6% increase in September. Manufacturing output is estimated to have fallen to growth of 0.2% in October from 0.4% measured a month before.

 

GBP/USD Levels to consider

 

The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.5697 (Dec 5 High) levels, above which gains could be extended to 1.5719 (Dec 3 High) levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.5651 (10-day SMA), below which it could extend losses to 1.5618 (50-day SMA) levels. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 09, 2014

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LME Inventory Update

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The daily warehouse stocks data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) today showed a rise in the inventory levels of Copper and Zinc. Meanwhile, the inventory levels of Nickel, Aluminium and Lead declined.

 

Copper stocks rose by 950 tonnes today, while Aluminium inventory and Lead inventory decreased by 10100 tonnes and 2200 tonnes respectively. Nickel stocks declined by 162 tonnes, while that of Zinc increased 3200 tonnes. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 09, 2014

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UK Industrial Production declines with contraction in the manufacturing activity.

 

 

The UK Office for National Statistics data on Industrial Production released today showed the activity expanded at a pace of 1.1% year-on-year in October, lower than the market expectation of 1.8% growth, and down from the September’s growth of 1.5%.

 

The manufacturing activity increased by 1.7%, while mining and quarrying registered a growth of 1.0%. These increases were offset by a sharp decline of 2.3% in the water supply, sewerage & the waste management sector. Meanwhile, electricity, gas, steam & the air conditioning sector also registered a contraction of 0.7%. 

 

Mont-on-month, the industrial production registered a contraction of 0.1% in October, driven by a 0.7% decline in the manufacturing activity. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 09, 2014

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GBP/JPY trims losses

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The pound is trading slightly lower against the yen on Wednesday, falling for the second day in a row, but far from the lows. 

 

GBP/JPY bottomed earlier at 186.14 but then bounced to the upside and recently reached 187.30. Currently trades at 187.05/10, 0.15% below today’s opening price. 

 

Trade balance data from the United Kingdom had no impact on the pound. The deficit fell in October to the lowest level in seven months, at £2bn, below the £2.8bn in September. 

 

GBP/JPY steady

 

Price action across the board remains mostly calm following sharp movements yesterday, when GBP/JPY dropped from 189.20 to 185.16; today the price range so far has been of 160 pips. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 10, 2014

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EUR/NOK climbs to fresh 5-year high

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/NOK has pushed to fresh 5-year highs Wednesday despite in line with expectations Norwegian inflation data, as oil prices remain as the main driver for the krone.

 

Norges Bank decision tomorrow

 

Norway's CPI came exactly in line with expectations of +1.9% the headline and +2.4% the core ahead of the Norges Bank decision tomorrow (target 2.5%). The central bank is expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.5% despite recent oil prices slump. 

 

However, according to Jane Foley, analyst at Rabobank, commented that in view of the risks to growth the chances that the Norges Bank will set the scene for further rate cuts has grown. “The continuation of sluggish growth in the Eurozone combined, the increased pressure on the oil price combined with the moderation in core inflation suggests scope for a reduction in the 1.5% policy rate potentially as soon as the March Norges Bank meeting”, said the analyst.

 

EUR/NOK climbed to a 5-year high of 8.9354 and it is currently trading around 8.9000, recording a 0.95% gain on the day. 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 10, 2014

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EUR trading flat – Scotiabank

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, notes that EUR is flat with no fundamental data and ignoring ECB’s Hansson’s comments that they will turn to corporate bonds before sovereign.

 

Key Quotes

 

“EUR is flat to yesterday’s close, after trading in a tight 37‐point range during the Asian and European sessions. Yesterday’s profit taking was important and has forced some of the move vulnerable shorts out of the market; however the failure to close above last Friday’s open of 1.2379 or high of 1.2393 puts important emphasis on today’s close. Should EUR fail again to close above these levels it would be technically bearish; should it break above it would open up a test to 1.2470.”

 

“There was no data released today. The ECB’s Hansson suggested that corporate bond buying should be pursued before sovereigns and that in principle the ECB could look to equities; but that it is too early to judge if the central bank will commit to action in January.”

 

“EURUSD short‐term technicals: mixed—warning of a short‐period of stability. Support lies at the recent low of 1.2247, a break below here would open up a test to 1.2200; while resistance comes in at yesterday’s high of 1.2448. A close above 1.2379 today would open up a nearterm test to yesterday’s high followed by 1.2500.” 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 10, 2014

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Counting on the balance sheet – BNP

 


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Analysts at BNP Paribas note that the ECB has signaled that it intends to bring its balance sheet back to the level prevailing in early 2012. 

 

Key Quotes:

 

“The balance sheet expansion is an instrument that has been used by central banks to overcome the Zero Lower Bound of policy rates and to signal an easier monetary policy stance. It also wants to see inflation back to target “without delay” and “as fast as possible”, to quote President Draghi, The rise in the base money will first depend on the success of the upcoming targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTROs)”. 

 

“We expect the next operation, to be conducted on December the 11th, to encounter strong demand, at the upper range of estimates. However, it is likely that the measures adopted so far (TLTROs, ABS and Covered Bond purchase programs), will not be enough to fully achieve the ECB’s balance sheet objective”. 

 

“Under these circumstances the ECB would be forced to enlarge the list of assets it currently purchases”. 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 10, 2014

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AUD/JPY longs squeezed out in last push for September highs

 

 

 

FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/JPY is trading at 98.50, down -0.74% on the day, having posted a daily high at 99.49 and low at 98.36.

 

AUD/JPY has extended losses on a continuation of the downtrend and unwinding in the carry, pushing the hourly RSI towards oversold territory. Risk sentiment is fading and concerns for global growth risks are mounting with investors looking to the safe havens, such as the yen, and longs are being squeezed out of positions as the Yen continues to strengthen. 

 

We have moved down to September highs and rapidly where there may be strong support. However a break of these levels opens up the downside wide open to the psychological 98.00 level. 

 

Fundamentally, the FOMC may play a big roll next week in market developments and should the dollar continue to unwind then this may balance out the scales of the cross to some extent with a buoyed Aussie dollar as a result. However, the snap election results are up this weekend ad this prove unfavourable to Abe and support further supply in USD/JPY. 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 10, 2014

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CBOE VIX blasts higher

 

 

 

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) has shot up, after breaking out of a month long trading range due to the risk aversion in the financial markets. 

 

The CBOE VIX currently trades 9.20% higher at 16.26 levels, compared to the previous session’s close of 14.89 levels. The index had opened higher yesterday, although late recovery in the stock markets made sure the volatility gauge finished lower. 

 

However, the index may continue to inch higher today as renewed sell-off in Crude prices may push stock prices lower in the US and Europe. 

 

CBOE VIX Technical Levels

 

The index has been trading largely in a range of 16.28 to 11.53 for over a month now. A breach of 16.28 on closing basis, shall open doors for 18.43 and 20.00 levels. Meanwhile, a break below 11.53 may push the index down to immediate support at 11.24. 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 10, 2014

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USD/CHF hits fresh lows at 0.9670

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF broke below 0.9690 and dropped to 0.9670 reaching a fresh daily low. The pair was holding below 0.9690 with bearish momentum. 

 

USD/CHF breaks range

 

The pair traded during most of the day in a range with support at 0.9690 and resistance at 0.9720/25. After testing once again the upper limit, turned to the downside and broke the support, as EUR/USD rose to fresh highs above 1.2400. 

 

Despite the recent movements, today’s price range still remained inside yesterday’s range. USD/CHF was headed toward the third daily decline in a row. 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 10, 2014

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Dollar consolidates as Oil slide continues – BBH

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team, notes that the decline in oil prices has not only proven to be a setback for the dollar, but spurred losses in equities and pushed down bond yields as well.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Markets are reacting to the cuts in demand forecasts by OPEC and IEA. Oil prices have fallen about 10% this week. Brent finished last week near $69.10 and now is quoted around $63.25. WTI finished last week just below $66 and now is just above $59. This was driven by slowing of the Chinese economy coupled with increased output in the US (which reached a new high of 9.12 mln barrels a day in the week of December 5), and larger OPEC discounts.”

 

“This precipitous decline in oil prices hits the global economy as deflationary forces still threaten large parts of the world economy. It has knocked down US 10-year yields. After the constructive employment report, US 10-year yields finished last week near 2.30%. Today they touched 2.11%. And this despite continued robust data (see yesterday's 0.7% rise in headline retail sales) and speculation that next week's FOMC statement will delete or dilute the reference to "considerable period" as the next step towards preparing investors for a rate hike next year.” 

 

“The decline in oil prices not only pushed down bond yields, but spurred sharp losses in the equity markets and a setback in the US dollar. The yen is the strongest currency this week, recovering a little more than 2.5%. The New Zealand dollar is in second place, helped by a less dovish central bank. The euro is about 1.2% higher on the week after recording new cyclical lows on Monday. Sterling rose about 0.75% this week.” 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 10, 2014

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Dollar consolidates as Oil slide continues – BBH

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team, notes that the decline in oil prices has not only proven to be a setback for the dollar, but spurred losses in equities and pushed down bond yields as well.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Markets are reacting to the cuts in demand forecasts by OPEC and IEA. Oil prices have fallen about 10% this week. Brent finished last week near $69.10 and now is quoted around $63.25. WTI finished last week just below $66 and now is just above $59. This was driven by slowing of the Chinese economy coupled with increased output in the US (which reached a new high of 9.12 mln barrels a day in the week of December 5), and larger OPEC discounts.”

 

“This precipitous decline in oil prices hits the global economy as deflationary forces still threaten large parts of the world economy. It has knocked down US 10-year yields. After the constructive employment report, US 10-year yields finished last week near 2.30%. Today they touched 2.11%. And this despite continued robust data (see yesterday's 0.7% rise in headline retail sales) and speculation that next week's FOMC statement will delete or dilute the reference to "considerable period" as the next step towards preparing investors for a rate hike next year.” 

 

“The decline in oil prices not only pushed down bond yields, but spurred sharp losses in the equity markets and a setback in the US dollar. The yen is the strongest currency this week, recovering a little more than 2.5%. The New Zealand dollar is in second place, helped by a less dovish central bank. The euro is about 1.2% higher on the week after recording new cyclical lows on Monday. Sterling rose about 0.75% this week.” 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 12, 2014

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GBP/USD erases intraday losses

 

 

 

FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD shrugged off disappointing UK construction data and managed to erase intraday losses to trade nearly flat into the North American opening.

 

GBP/USD bottomed out at 1.5693 following much worse than expected UK construction output data (-2.2% vs +0.8%) but it climbed back toward 1.5720 to trade effectively unchanged on the day.

 

Datawise, the US data includes producer prices data and the Reuters/Michigan Consumer sentiment index but non first-tier data, so investors will probably refrain from taking big positions ahead of the weekend.

 

GBP/USD technical levels

 

As for technical levels, immediate resistances are seen at 1.5735 (daily high) and 1.5755 (Dec 11 high) while supports could be found at 1.5693 (daily low) and 1.5677 (10-day SMA). 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 12, 2014

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USD/CAD may test 1.1690 level in the near‐term – Scotiabank

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, anticipates USD/CAD to test 1.1690 in the near term, supported by near and medium term technicals which warn of an ongoing upside pressure.

 

Key Quotes


“CAD has reached fresh 5.5 year lows, having lost a further 0.5% in the Asian and European sessions. The drop has been on the back of a further fall in oil prices, yesterday’s steady tone from Governor Poloz, and bearish CAD technicals; ignoring the better than expected data from China. The only domestic data released today is Teranet housing prices; leaving CAD trading off of oil and broader developments.”

 

“Near and medium term technical studies warn of ongoing upside pressure. The upward trend is strong and with the RSI at just 67, there is still significant upside room before reaching overbought levels. We are biased to be long USDCAD. For short‐term traders we would look for a near term test of 1.1690 and would place a stop at 1.1495.” 

 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 12, 2014

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Oil fell yesterday after IEA cut global demand forecast – Malcolm Graham-Wood

 

 

 

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Independent Analyst, Malcolm Graham-Wood notes that yesterday it was IEA which fuelled further downward pressure on oil price after it cut the global demand forecasts for the 4th time in past 5 months.

 

Key Quotes

 

“Yesterday it was the turn of the IEA to keep the downward pressure on the oil price by cutting its global demand forecast for the 4th time in five months. Their number is now for a rise of 900/- b/d, down 230/- from their previous forecast/guess. They now, like Opec have a call on the cartel of 28.9m b/d which may be optimistic.”

 

“Whilst I still believe that there is no obvious floor for the oil price at least in the short term, it will be interesting to see when forecasters decide that prices down here will stimulate demand.” 

 

 

 


 

 

Dec 12, 2014

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