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Generalized Forex Forecast for 25-29 April 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecas:

•   D1 and W1 charts show that EUR/USD continues to move within the ascending channel that started last December. As expected by 50% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1, the pair aimed at the upper boundary of the channel right from the start of the week, quickly reached resistance at 1.1350 and then went down sharply to strong support at 1.1200, which is clearly visible in the monthly timeframe;
•   despite the fact that most analysts predicted that GBP/USD would gravitate toward last February’s lows, the pair fulfilled the forecast of the remaining 15% of the analysts and went to the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.4050-1.4450, within which it has been moving for the sixth weeks in a row;
•   the forecast for USD/JPY was fulfilled 100% . It was suggested that as a result of the upward rebound that began 11 April, the pair should reach at least 111.00 over the past week. Only last Friday, though, the pair soared, broke through the resistance of 111.00 with a mighty heave and stopped at 111.76;
•   the forecast for USD/CHF panned out – a further upward trend with the target of 0.9800, which happened Friday night. The pair was just 4 points short of it, making it to 0.9796.
  

Forecast for Coming Week
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be predicted :

• according to 85% of the experts and 90% of the indicators on H1, the EUR/USD pair should continue to move down to 1.1100-1.1150. On the other hand, graphical analysis and the indicators on D1 reckon that next week the pair will be moving in a 1.1200-1.1450 sideways channel with support at 1.1200. In the longer term, the pair should break through the lower boundary of the channel in early May and rather quickly reach a local bottom of 1.0900;
• even though GBP/USD disappointed most experts last week, the main forecast for the pair stands – moving down. This is backed by 75% of the experts who believe that the pair should bounce off the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.4050-1.4450 and go down to its bottom boundary in the near future. Graphical analysis on D1 points out that after breaking through it, GBP/USD will still reach February’s lows around 1.3850. However, it may happen no earlier than the first or second decade of May;
• it is obvious that all indicators point upward for USD/JPY. However, over 80% of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 and H4 strongly disagree and believe that after bouncing off resistance at 112.00, the pair should go down to support at 110.60. These two levels will determine USD/JPY’s movement in the near future, after which the pair will once again attempt to reach the bottom of 107.70;
• about 70% of the experts and the indicators on H4 and D1 believe that USD/CHF will consolidate above 0.9800 for some time. The main resistance in this case will be 0.9900. Graphical analysis on D1 gives an alternative view – the level of 0.9800 will remain insurmountable resistance, bouncing off which the pair will go down to the 0.9500 support. Since the pair is around 0.9800 now, it’ll be clear shortly which scenario will play out.
  

Roman Butko, NordFX
 

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 2-6 May 2016

 

First, a review of last week’s predictions :

 graphical analysis and the indicators on D1 were 100% right in their forecast for EUR/USD.  According to them, the pair was supposed to bounce off support at 1.1200 and move on to resistance at 1.1450. In fact, the pair started from 1.1217 on Monday and completed the week at 1.1451;

 defying the forecasts of most analysts who all of the past month insisted on GBP/USD’s move to last February’s lows, the pair continued its upswing, broke through resistance at 1.4450 and quickly reached last February’s high of 1.4670;

 the USD/JPY pair fully confirmed the predictions of graphical analysis and the experts who believed that the pair would bounce off resistance at 112.00, go down to support at 110.60 and even further to 107.70. Due to the decisions of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan on interest rates, USD/JPY not only met but actually exceeded the expectations and was just short of 100.90-105.30, i.e. the sideways channel of 2014;

 in the forecast for USD/CHF graphical analysis on D1 indicated that 0.9800 would become insurmountable resistance, the pair would bounce off it and go down to support at 0.9500. It did happen – USD/CHF consistently moved down all week long and reached the weekly low of 0.9567 on Friday.

 

Forecast for Upcoming Week

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested : 

• the experts’ opinions about EUR/USD are split almost equally – 45% are for a rise to 1.1550-1.1650, another 45% are for a fall to the levels of 1.1200-1.1300, and the remaining 10% are for a further sideways trend. Graphical analysis on W1 and MN shows clearly that EUR/USD is at the top boundary of the horizontal channel within which the pair has been moving since January 2015. Thus, 1.1450 may become strong resistance, bouncing off which the pair will move to the central line of the channel at 1.1000. It should be noted that the coming week is full of important economic events, including the release of US employment data, which may have a significant impact on virtually all USD pairs;

the analysts differ about GBP/USD – 40% are for a fall, 40% are for a rise to 1.5000 whereas 20% and graphical analysis on H4 are for a sideways trend within 1.4500-1.4660. In the longer term, 75% of the experts believe the pair will go down while graphical analysis elaborates that the main support will be at 1.4200;

there is no consensus among the experts regarding USD/JPY either. As for the indicators, all of them obviously point down after the pair’s sharp fall. With this, according to graphical analysis on D1, one can expect the pair to bounce to 109.00-110.00 and then try to reach the low of 105.00 again;

about 60% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 believe that USD/CHF should make another attempt at consolidating above 0.9800. The main resistance will be at 0.9900 in this case. However, graphical analysis on H4 indicates that this can happen only after the pair rebounds from support around 0.9520-0.9500.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

 

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[tifagabe]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 09 - 13 May 2016

 

First, a review of last week’s predictions :

 As for the forecast for EUR/USD, this pair succeeded to meet expectations of all experts. All of their forecasts turned out to be correct - those, which predicted its rise (from Monday to Tuesday, the pair rose to the level of 1.1616), the ones which predicted its drop (the pair afterwards went down to support at 1.1385), and –the ones predicted its sideways trend - due to fluctuations the pair returned almost to the same level it had started the week from. Such a mixed behaviour of the pair, as noted above, was largely predetermined by the last week’s release of a series of economic data points of a different trend from Europe and the USA;

 as expected, these releases should influence the behaviour of virtually all USD pairs, and that did not allow analysts to reach a consensus particularly in regard to the future of GBP/USD. As a result, the pair largely made the same movement as EUR/USD, and, after rising earlier in the week, it showed a steady fall in the latter half of the week, returning to the benchmark for the whole year of 2016 - to support / resistance zone of around 1.4400 ÷ 1.4500;

 there was no consensus among experts about the future of USD/JPY either. As a result, the pair held onto the side channel, reflecting the behaviour of EUR/USD and wrapping up the week virtually at the same level of 107.00 whereat it had consolidated last week;

 as often happens, USD/CHF also tried to mirror the behaviour of EUR/USD, but nonetheless it fully met expectations of both analysts and graphical analysis predicting its attempt to get closer to the level of 0.9800. The pair, however, failed to reach this high, but due to its impressive surge upward it got closer to the target and reached the mark of 0.9728.

 

Forecast for Upcoming Week

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested : 

• similar to the last week, the experts' opinions about future of EUR/USD are split almost equally - one third of analysts are for the rise of the pair to the zone of 1.1730 ÷ 1.1800, one third are for its fall towards the support of 1.1200, and another third - for a sideways trend with pivot point of 1.1400. The opinions about indicators are also split - 60% on H4 vote for the pair's fall, and 75% on D1 are for its rise. If we focus on the graphical analysis, there is a prevalence of bearish trends here, according to which the pair must first go down to the first support zone of 1.1340, and then, after breaking through it, move 100 points lower. The local bottom of the current month is at 1.1000, which should be followed by a return to the pivot point of February - May at the level of 1.1280;

but with regard to the behaviour of GBP/USD, the majority of analysts (70%), as well as indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 unanimously vote for the continuation of its declining. Target is at 1.4250 ÷ 1.4300, which should be followed by a bounce upwards to the last week figures within 1.4430 ÷ 1.4500;

USD/JPY. Here, according to experts, indicators and graphical analysis, we should expect the sideways movement of the pair within 105.50 ÷ 108.00. And, the pair is very likely to rise to the upper boundary of the range, bouncing off which it should make another attempt to break through the support of 105.50 and go down first to the zone of 104.00, and then to the lows of spring and summer of 2014 at the level of 102.00. However, such a movement can take from several weeks to a month;

as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF - everything is just as it was - both 80% of experts and 85% of indicators and graphical analysis on D1 continue to insist on the pair striving to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. As already mentioned, the main resistance in this case will be at the level of 0.9900. The main support is 200 points lower - 0.9700.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 16 - 20 May 2016

 

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week :

 if we talk about the forecast for EUR/USD, as it often happens,graphical analysis turned out to be the most accurate, having predicted the return of the pair to the Pivot Point of February - May at the level of 1.1280. It was that value - 1.1282 - that the pair reached on Friday and, after several unsuccessful attempts to break through this support, it completed the five-day period in the 1.1310 area;  

 with regard to GBP/USD, having returned to the key support/resistance zone for the entire 2016, near 1.4400 - 1.4500, the pair fluctuated around Pivot Point 1.4440 for nearly the whole week. However, at the end of the week, it remembered that most analysts and all the tools of technical analysis had unanimously voted for continuation of its fall. As a result, denoting a bearish trend, the pair moved to the south and recorded the weekly low at 1.4340;

 forecast for USD/JPY turned out to be only partly true. It had been assumed that at the beginning of the week the pair should go up to the 108.00 resistance and it obediently did so. But then, instead of showing a rebound down, the pair broke this level and moved sideways in the 108.25 - 109.40 channel;

 predicting the behaviour of USD/CHF, the majority of experts together with technical and graphical analysis continued to insist on a quest of the pair to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. The pair indeed made several desperate attempts to achieve this significant level, however, the maximum result, which it managed to achieve for the whole week, was the height of 0.9774, located just 26 points below the coveted height.

 

Forecast for the coming week

Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following : 

• throughout May experts have not managed to form any consensus on the future of EUR/USD. The same thing happened this time: 45% of them with the support of 100% of indicators on H4 vote for pair falling to the level of 1.1200, 20% of analysts - for the sideways trend, and 35% - for the pair's growth to the height of 1.1380. Graphical analysis on H4 and D1 agrees with the latter, its readings say that the pair must demonstrate a smooth rebound from the 1.1280 support. If we talk about a long-term forecast, the opinion of the majority of experts (70%) remains the same - reduction of pair to the zone 1.1000 - 1.1100; 

but with regard to the behaviour of GBP/USD, the outlook remains virtually the same as last week - a continuation of the pair's fall to the area 1.4250 - 1.4300, which should be followed by a rebound to the 1.4500 resistance. With this agree both 65% of analysts, and graphical analysis on D1;

USD/JPY - here, according to experts, indicators and graphical analysis, we should expect the pair's movement in the sideways channel 107.00 -109.50 in the next few days. At this, the pair, with high probability, will demonstrate a bearish mood, which will result in an attempt to break through the 105.50 support and go down to the lows of early May - in the area of 105.50 - 106.00; 

as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF - everything here remains the same - 60% of the experts, 100% of indicators on H4 and D1 and 65% of indicators continue to insist that the pair should reach the level of 0.9800. At this graphical analysis on D1 warns that after a few days in this area, a strong rebound to the south may follow, as a result of which, as it happened in March and April, the pair will drop to the 2016 lower boundary of the sideways channel - to the zone 0.9500 - 0.9585. The nearest support is at the level of 0.9650.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX

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[tifagabe]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 23 - 27  May 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast :

•   as to the forecast for EUR/USD, last week there was no consensus in regards to its future. Surprisingly all predictions panned out. 35% of experts backed by graphical analysis reckoned that the pair would gradually bounce off the support of 1.1280 and move towards the resistance of 1.1380, and earlier this week the pair did went upwards and reached the mark of 1.1348. The other 45% of analysts voted for the pair’s fall to the level of 1.1200, which virtually happenedin the latter half of the week – the pair wrapped up the week fluctuating within the range of 1.1200 - 1.1230;
•   as to GBP/USD, 65% of experts predicted the pair’s drop to the area of 1.4250 - 1.4300, following which a rebound to the support of 1.4500 should occur. However the pair decided to jump the gun and after declining only to the level of 1.4330 it soared and reached the high of 1.4500, then it made a second breakthrough heaving upwards by further 165 points, following which it returned to 1.4500 - the target level of experts. By the way, it’s interesting to look at M1 charts of different brokers for this pair: in the last minute of the week session we may see a candle moving down to the mark of 1.4487on some brokers’ charts, and some brokers’ chartsvice versa show a candle moving up to 1.4513. As to NordFX quotes, they ended the week at the level of 1.4490;
•   in the last minute of the session similar various readings were seen in regards to USD/JPY. As to the forecast for this pair, it turned out to be only partly correct. Earlier in the week the pair was expected to move in a sideway channel of 107.00 - 109.50, and it did so. But then, instead of rebounding downwards, the pair, supported by news from the USA, broke the resistance of 109.50 and transited into sideways movement within the range of 109.70 - 110.50;
•   predicting the way USD/CHF would act, the majority of experts along with technical analysis continued to insist on the pair’s attempt to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. And that forecast was 100% fulfilled – in the middle of the week the pair reached this benchmark level and went further upwards – to the high of 0.9922. As to the end of the week, it became a focus of attention due to plunging of quotes of several brokers by 15 – 20 points during last minutes of the session.
  

Forecast for the Upcoming Week
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• predicting the future of EUR/USD, 60% of experts backed by 75% of indicators insist on continuation of a descending trend for this pair. They reckon that the pair should fall at least to the level of 1.1100, and it even may go down further100 points. As forthe other experts and graphical analysis, according to their opinion the pair had already reached a local bottomand thus its upwards rebound to the area of 1.1300 - 1.1330 should happen;
• as to the behaviourof GBP/USD, the technical and graphical analysis on D1 concurs and elaborates that the pair would continue its movement in anascending channel, which had started late February this year. According to this forecast, backed by 65% of experts, the pair wouldinsistently try to reach the high of 1.1500, however this movement may take up to several weeks. As to the shorter-term forecast, the experts do not rule out the chance that the level of 1.4500 may turn from support into resistance for a while (pay attention to divergence of quotes when the last session had been closed). If this scenario plays out, then the key support will be 1.1440, and the next support - 1.4325;
• USD/JPY - here, according to the majority of experts, indicators and graphical analysis, we should expect the pair moving in the sideway channel alongside pivot point of 109.00 within next days. The main support will be at 107.70, resistance – at 111.00;
• as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF - everything is just as it was – as it was mentioned in previous reviews, the pair may stick to the side channel for a while, with the support of 0.9800 and the resistance level within 0.9900 - 0.9920, whereafter it should go south to the support of 0.9700.Therewith the graphical analysis on D1 shows that afterwards it may again return to the benchmark level of 0.9800 bouncing off which it may plunge down to the mark of 0.9500, this movement may take up to 3 weeks.
  

Roman Butko, NordFX
 

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