JamesThatcher

We saw both lines of data deviate in the same direction, but the headline only gave a -0.2 deviation which wasn't enough for me. Price action was excellent, seeing some 40 pips in the two minutes directly after the news was released. The move was staggered and slow if I had have traded, I'm sure my fill price would have made for significant profits. Good to see reactions like this. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=49879;t=2021-5-4 22:45:00.0;s=EURNZD;r=S1

What does the data mean to the market? The Norges Bank decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NOK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish. Historic deviations and their outcome May 7 2020 A further cut of 0.25% leaving interest rates at an unprecedented 0.00% March 20 2020 A further emergency cut of 0.75% to the interest rate, Leaving interest rates at 0.25% See Chart here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/27738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI3NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0yMCUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ. March 13 2020 An emergency cut of 0.50% to 1.0% interest rate due to the global pandemic unfolding and the expected significant impact on the economy. This the first cut to interest rates since 2016 The world started to go into a meltdown as the realisation of a global pandemic began to unfold. There is no surprise the reaction to this was so poor, not even a blip on the charts. Due to the unprecedented times, this is the first in a series of emergency cuts, which resulted in minimal price action. Usually, we would see hundreds of pips if a cut of this nature happened in normal times. A reminder of the impact Covid had in 2020, which I'm glad to say is now behind us, and I'll be watching these announcements now and looking for a normal reaction to the data as it's released. See Chart Here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/16296/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2Mjk2O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xMyUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ.. I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate Decision 0.0 Today's trade plan I will set up for any deviation on this trade, although I expect a no-trade as 100% of economists predict no chance of a change in today's rate. However, if a surprise did happen, I would be devastated I wasn't ready. Tradable pairs EURNOK USDNOK Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

What does the data mean to the market? The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also. There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report. Historic deviations and their outcome April 28 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me; however, I saw a healthy 30 pip move in the direction of the news. Oil was already in an upwards trend which continued pre and post news. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=43410;t=2021-4-28 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1 April 21 2021 Oil deviation wasn't even half of what I set up for no trade for me, take a look at the chart though, the price moved in the right direction of the news and immediately reversed and went the wrong way. A reminder that this needs a sizeable deviation from the forecast. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=41182;t=2021-4-21 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1 April 14 2021 Nice move! But it didn't hit a trigger for me. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=38793;t=2021-4-14 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1 I will use forecasts of: DOE Crude Oil Inventories -3000 DOE Gasoline Inventories -2000 Today's trade plan If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent. Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: - 1) DOE Crude Forecast = +850 2) API Actual Crude = -7700 3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0652 4) API Actual Gasoline = -5300 Tradable pairs USDBNT USDOIL Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

What does the data mean to the market? The Unemployment Rate released by Statistics New Zealand is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labour force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the New Zealand labour market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the New Zealand economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish). There are two main data lines from this report Unemployment Rate and Employment Change; both must deviate in the same direction to take a trade. Historic deviations and their outcome February 2 2021 A positive deviation of -0.7 from the headline Unemployment Rate with a complementary positive deviation of +1.4k on the secondary line Employment Change which gave a slow move. This is what I love to see. I saw some movement before the delivery of the news which is always a concern and often a sign that the news is out early but I held my nerve this time and it paid off. Overall the price action was excellent. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=26836;t=2021-2-2 21:45:00.0;s=EURNZD;r=S5 I will use forecasts of: Employment Change (Q/Q) 0.3 Unemployment Rate 4.9 Today's trade plan If I get either a positive or negative deviation of 0.4 from the headline Unemployment Rate without a conflict from the secondary line of Employment Change, then I would expect a good initial move followed by some continuation after the initial spike. Please note that the standard deviation on today's forecast range is significantly smaller than the last quarterly release, so I would expect the data to cause a better market reaction this time. New Zealand is the first country to emerge from Covid lock downs and hopefully, news events will continue to work. Unfortunately, the RBNZ is currently neutral regarding its stance on which way interest rates might go in the future. Which doesn't help to achieve those large rapid moves I used to see back before Covid came around. Tradable pairs EURNZD GBPNZD NZDJPY NZDUSD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Last week I set up only for three trades, and one trade gave us a deviation from the forecast, which my software fired on. Check out the video from this trade here It was a great trade, perfect price action, and an excellent example of what I do well. Getting the right set of results and seeing price action like this makes for good profits. You can see the price action on the charts here also: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=43386;t=2021-4-28%201:30:00.0;s=EURAUD;r=S5 Remember that it's not about the number of trades taken, but the right trades, which requires a lot of patience. April overall was quiet for me but resulted in three trades taken with a 2:1 win/losses ratio making another profitable month. Those followers closely watching will notice I didn't put out a plan for Canadian GDP on Friday. Canadian data is still hit and miss but will become more focused on moving through the year. The BoC said last week that the first-rate raises might come in 2022, whereas previously, it was 2023. That should add some spice to Canadian data soon. I didn't set up for GDP as this data doesn't have historical success. I would need reasonable deviations and an active BoC before Canadian GDP will be tradable. My diary changes minute by minute (tick by tick) just like the markets; however, currently, this is what I'm setting up for this week. I'm looking forward to New Zealand Unemployment data tomorrow and Canadian employment on Friday, Also US ADP Non-Farm Employment data as US employment data is warming up. 04/05/2021 23:45:00 EURNZD Unemployment Rate 05/05/2021 13:15:00 USDJPY ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 05/05/2021 15:30:00 USDOIL Crude Oil Inventories 06/05/2021 09:00:00 USDNOK NOK Rate Decision 06/05/2021 12:00:00 USDTRY Turkish Rate Decision 07/05/2021 13:30:00 EURCAD Employment Change I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my trade plans. Please feel free to ask questions. Good luck this week. James Thatcher

Today gave a deviation of -0.2% Trimmed Mean Q/Q -0.1% Trimmed Mean Y/Y with complimentary deviation on both the headline (Y/Y and Q/Q) of -0.3%. Everything lined up nicely. For those who are watching my plans closely, the deviation differs from my trade plan on this occasion. I set my software to look at all four lines and allowed it to quantify if the overall actual deviation from forecast on all four lines was enough to move the price significantly. If I was restricted to auto-clicking from one data line, then I would have missed this opportunity. I was happy with this outcome. That's two big wins and one slight loss this month. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=43386;t=2021-4-28 1:30:00.0;s=EURAUD;r=S5 See the video at : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7shheJvzTI

What does the data mean to the market? The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also. There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report. Historic deviations and their outcome April 21 2021 Oil deviation wasn't even half of what I set up for no trade for me, take a look at the chart though, the price moved in the right direction of the news and immediately reversed and went the wrong way. A reminder that this needs a sizeable deviation from the forecast. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=41182;t=2021-4-21 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1 April 14 2021 Nice move! But it didn't hit a trigger for me. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=38793;t=2021-4-14 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1 April 7 2021 Minimal deviations didn't create the move I would need to be safe. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=36450;t=2021-4-7 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1 I will use forecasts of: DOE Crude Oil Inventories +2000 DOE Gasoline Inventories -500 Today's trade plan If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent. Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following. 1) Official DOE Crude Forecast = 0659 2) API Actual Crude = +4300 3) Official DOE Gasoline Forecast = +0508 4) API Actual Gasoline = -1300 Tradable pairs USDBNT USDOIL Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

There were no changes to the forecast interest rates; they will remain at 0% for the foreseeable future, there was no conflicting additional quantitative easing. Price actions were very dull; however, these trades can make a small fortune if a surprise hits the market, and that's why I set up for these interest rates. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=43349;t=2021-4-27 7:30:00.0;s=USDSEK;r=S2

What does the data mean to the market? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The impact on the currency may go both ways. A rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency. On the other hand, during the recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and a fall in local currency. The RBA has a dual mandate of reduced unemployment and achieving higher inflation, So we hope a surprise increase in the CPI figures could fuel a new debate for the RBA on when it would begin tapering. Historic deviations and their outcome January 27 2021 Headline Q/Q and Y/Y gave +0.2. Trimmed Mean was flat, though so not ideal. The move was respectable, lasting a good 30 seconds! See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=28145;t=2021-1-27 0:30:00.0;s=AUDUSD;r=S10 July 29 2020 Trimmed mean gave a -0.2 dev but conflicted with a positive +0.1 from Headline. Nevertheless, Trimmed Mean won the day and blew away the conflict. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=20676;t=2020-7-29 1:30:00.0;s=AUDUSD;r=S10 I will use forecasts of: CPI - Trimmed Mean (Q/Q) 0.9 CPI - Trimmed Mean (Y/Y) 1.4 CPI (Q/Q) 0.5 CPI (Y/Y) 1.2 Today's trade plan We need the Trimmed Mean QQ and/or YY to deviate by +-0.3 with no conflicts from the Headline QQ and YY. If this happens, we should see a prolonged move that we can benefit from. Any AUD pair will move from this data. Tradable pairs AUDJPY AUDUSD EURAUD GBPAUD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

What does the data mean to the market? The Sveriges Riksbank Executive Board's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the SEK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish. Historic deviations and their outcome December 19 2019 Spike but retrace due to not being a total surprise on this occasion. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=13626;t=2019-12-19 8:30:00.0;s=USDSEK;r=S5 December 20 2018 Great move on SEK pairs, as we would like to see today. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=2446;t=2018-12-20 8:30:00.0;s=USDSEK;r=S30 I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate Decision 0 SE Rates Forecast Q1 0 SE Rates Forecast Q2 0 SE Rates Forecast Q3 0 SE Rates Forecast Q4 0 SE Rates Forecast Q5 0 SE Rates Forecast Q6 0 SE Rates Forecast Q7 0 Today's trade plan Today we don't expect any move from the Interest rate. But we may get some activity from the rate path. Previously the path was flat, with all lines showing 0. However, today, if any of the lines show a positive or negative deviation and don't conflict with each other. Then we can look to take a trade in the direction of the deviation. We also get Quantitative Easing (QE) at the same time. The problem we see with this event is SEK IR path could be up or down. (a cut by the end of 2021 and 10% to a hike by 2024) BUT the QE may be counter-act to the longer-term path. So, we may get a positive path, but short term QE increase or vice versa effectively a conflict. If all deviations align, we could see a prolonged move. Tradable pairs EURSEK USDSEK Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Last week, I didn't have anything near a deviation, and no pips banked. I stood back and watched NZD CPI as I wasn't confident about how it would react; I'll revisit this next month. Fridays German Composite PMI became overshadowed by current Covid-19 news, and therefore I decided to sit on the sidelines and save my equity. The most exciting news I saw last week was from the Bank of Canada regarding the forecast of an interest rate hike now looking to hit in 2022 and not 2023 as previously forecast, making Canadian data much hotter than before. This week's diary is pretty sparing again, but remember, it's not about the number of trades. Still, the quality and one or two decent deviations from the forecast is all that's required to keep making the month a profitable one. Here's is what I am currently looking to trade this week. 27/04/2021 08:30:00 SEK SWE Interest rate 28/04/2021 02:30:00 AUD CPI q/q 28/04/2021 15:30:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 30/04/2021 13:30:00 CAD GDP m/m I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my trade plans. Please feel free to ask questions. Good luck this week. James Thatcher

Todays Oil deviation wasn't even half of what I set up for so no trade today,take a look at the chart though, it's scary when you see the price move in the right direction of the news and immediately reverse and go the wrong way, Remember the importance of your analysis and risk reward ratio, not just any deviation will work eveytime. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=41182;t=2021-4-21 14:30:00.0;s=;r=S1

Core CPI was nowhere near the deviations I needed, so no trade for me today. As you see, not much of a move on CAD pairs for CPI; however, notice the charts 90 minutes later when the Bank of Canada's monetary policy report suggested that interest rates could hike in 2022 and not their previous estimation in 2023. That means next month, this and other Canadian data becomes hot. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=41172;t=2021-4-21 12:30:00.0;s=;r=M15

What does the data mean to the market? The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond. There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report. Historic deviations and their outcome April 14 2021 Nice move! But it didn't hit a trigger for me. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=38793;t=2021-4-14 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1 April 7 2021 Minimal deviations didn't create the move we would need to be safe. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=36450;t=2021-4-7 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1 March 24 2021 Not much of a deviation, but Gasoline seems to have driven price action, and maybe API wasn't considered so much by the market this time? See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34654;t=2021-3-24 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1 I will use forecasts of: DOE Crude Oil Inventories -1500 DOE Gasoline Inventories -1000 Today's trade plan If we get a deviation of 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent. Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following. 1) Official DOE Crude Forecast = -3000 2) API Actual Crude = +0400 3) Official DOE Gasoline Forecast = +0464 4) API Actual Gasoline = -1600 Tradable pairs USDBNT USDOIL Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

What does the data mean to the market? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish. Historic deviations and their outcome March 17 2021 Small deviations managed to create small moves, nothing exciting, though, and the retraces were swift and dangerous. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34157;t=2021-3-17 12:30:00.0;s=EURCAD;r=S30 February 17 2021 Small deviations again created a feeble move. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=29267;t=2021-2-17 13:30:00.0;s=EURCAD;r=S30 I will use forecasts of: CPI (M/M) 0.6 CPI (Y/Y) 2.3 CPI Core - Common (Y/Y) 1.4 CPI Core - Median (Y/Y) 2.1 CPI Core - Trim (Y/Y) 2.0 Today's trade plan We hope that as we move forward, this data will become more interesting to the market. However, we may not be there yet. Therefore today, I will need an unlikely 0.4 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction as the headline from the other four lines of data that come out at the same time. Without the comprehensive deviations on all lines, we may not find any continuation that will bring us safety and profit. Tradable pairs EURCAD GBPCAD USDCAD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Hey How you all feeling about this weeks trading? Last week's diary was pretty scarce, and I set up only for four trades where only one trade gave us a deviation from the forecast worth taking a risk on. Unfortunately, this one of the rare occurrences which resulted in a slight loss; losses will happen. It's part of the game. A good reminder to do your analysis, Always work out if the potential reward is worth the risk. Remember, this is real money. This loss was minimal, and I'm in profit for the month with two more weeks to go. The diary is pretty light this week too, it isn't necessarily about the number of trades you take. If the markets give us some surprises, we only need one or two. My diary changes minute by minute (tick by tick) just like the markets; however, currently, this is what I'm setting up for this week. 20 April 2021 23:45 New Zealand CPI (Q/Q) https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=NZ;nn=CPI (QoQ) 21 April 2021 13:30 Canada CPI (M/M) https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=CA;nn=Core CPI (MoM) 21 April 2021 15:00 Canada Overnight Rate https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=CA;nn=BoC Rate Statement 21 April 2021 15:30 Crude Oil Inventories https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories 23 April 2021 18:30 German Composite PMI https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans. Please feel free to ask questions. Good luck this week. James Thatcher

There was no deviation today. I feel there was a reasonable expectation of a cut today as TRY pairs strengthened considerably immediately after the data was released. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=39345;t=2021-4-15 11:0:00.0;s=;r=S5

We saw slight deviations from both Oil and Gasoline but not enough to make a trade today; however, it still gave a good move! It just shows how profitable this trade can be if we get the correct deviations from the forecast. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=38793;t=2021-4-14 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=S10 See the video at : https://youtu.be/VHTgk09Svw8

What does the data mean to the market? The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on where to set the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the TRY. Historic Deviations and Their Outcome March 18 2021 +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too! See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34208;t=2021-3-18 11:0:00.0;s=USDTRY;r=S10 December 24 2020 +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=25738;t=2020-12-24 11:0:00.0;s=EURTRY;r=M1 October 22 2020 -1.75 negative deviation from the forecast, which created a great move! With over 900 pips in the first minute. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=23557;t=2020-10-22 11:0:00.0;s=EURTRY;r=M1 I Will Use Forecasts Of: Benchmark Rate 19 Today's Trade Plan 25 forecasts today. This is broken down here:- 23 forecast for the rate to stay at 19% 1 forecast for a cut to 18.5% 1 forecast for a cut to 17% Last time there was an unexpected hike in rates, President Erdogan sacked the central bank governor. Today is the first policy announcement from the new governor Sahap Kavcioglu, who's under pressure to cut rates. So far, he has signalled he won't cut yet but let's see! Realistically the only feasible outcome from today is a possible cut. So if we get a deviation of 1.0 or more, we can expect a continued and prolonged weakening in TRY pairs. Tradable Pairs EURTRY USDTRY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

What does the data mean to the market? There are two main lines of data on this release. Employment Change, the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month; more employment is positive for the Aussie dollar and would create a buy of AUD pairs. Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact, a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Aussie Dollar and would create a sell of AUD pairs. Historic Deviations and Their Outcome March 18 2021 We got a 0.5% reduction in Unemployment Rate with complimentary 58k positive Employment Change, which gave a great move for the first minute where I banked a few pips here in the first 30 seconds, a great outcome! See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34188;t=2021-3-18 0:30:00.0;s=GBPAUD;r=S5 February 18 2021 A prime example of why both lines must deviate in the same direction. This time it conflicted between Unemployment Rate and Employment Change which didn't create a move from which I could profit. So I stayed on the sidelines. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=28577;t=2021-2-18 0:30:00.0;s=AUDNZD;r=M1 January 21 2021 No deviations on this release, and as you can see from the charts, the market didn’t move! See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=26434;t=2021-1-21 0:30:00.0;s=AUDNZD;r=M1 My Forecasts For Today Empl Chg - Full Time 0 Employment Change 35 Unemployment Rate 5.7 Today's Trade Plan The focus today will be on the Unemployment Rate, this is the key metric that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is watching and could affect future monetary policy decisions (Interest rates). If we get a 0.4% deviation from the forecast Unemployment Rate in either direction with no conflict from Employment Change, then we should see some good moves on AUD pairs. If both lines deviate harmoniously, we should see a sustained move and rack up a fair amount of pips along the way. Tradable Pairs AUDJPY AUDNZD AUDUSD EURAUD GBPAUD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

What does the data mean to the market? The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond. There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report. Historic Deviations and Their Outcome April 7 2021 Minimal deviations didn't create the move we would need to be safe. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=36450;t=2021-4-7 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1 March 31 2021 Not much of a deviation on this, but it seems Gasoline won the day! See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=35420;t=2021-3-31 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1 March 24 2021 Not much of a deviation, but Gasoline seems to have driven price action, and maybe API wasn't considered so much by the market this time? See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34654;t=2021-3-24 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1 My Forecasts For Today DOE Crude Oil Inventories -3000 DOE Gasoline Inventories +2000 Today's Trade Plan If we get +-4000 from OIL and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude OIl or Brent. Note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following. 1) Official DOE Crude Forecast = -2889 2) API Actual Crude = -3600 3) Official DOE Gasoline Forecast = 0786 4) API Actual Gasoline = +5600 Tradable Pairs USDBNT USDOIL Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

What does the data mean to the market? The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD. There are 4 lines of data. Headline CPI - Core (M/M) CPI - Core (Y/Y) CPI - (M/M) CPI - (Y/Y) Historic Deviations and Their Outcome March 10 2021 We got a +0.1 on both core lines gave a nice 15 pip move on USDJPY ; that's a really nice move for such a small deviation, shows how hot this data is becoming. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=33216;t=2021-3-10 13:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1 February 10 2021 Check out last months 0.2 deviations, and bear in mind that I expect the same deviations to create a better reaction today! We can see a small but gradual move over the first one minute. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=28287;t=2021-2-10 13:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1 November 12 2020 Most of last year, the same deviations were not moving the market, as conditions were very different then, but I believe the focus is back. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=24281;t=2020-11-12 13:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1 My Forecasts For Today CPI - Core (M/M) 0.2 CPI - Core (Y/Y) 1.5 CPI (M/M) 0.5 CPI (Y/Y) 2.5 Today's Trade Plan The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline. I’m looking for a Deviation of 0.2% or greater in either direction from the forecast of 0.2% to take a trade. So, an actual figure of 0.0% to Sell USD or 0.4% to Buy USD. We would need to confirm no conflict on any of the other three lines! CPI - Core (Y/Y) CPI - (M/M) CPI - (Y/Y) If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today. Tradable Pairs USDJPY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Today we got massive deviations across the three important data lines, Employment Change, Full Time, and Unemployment, all in the same direction, which gave us a nice move and the opportunity to bank a little profit! See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=38168;t=2021-4-9 12:30:00.0;s=EURCAD;r=S30 See the video at : https://youtu.be/eu-iMvW33q4

What does the data mean to the market? The total number of people employed/changed in the previous month. More employment is positive for the Cadanidan dollar and would create a buy of CAD pairs. Also, at the same time comes the unemployment rate, which has the reverse impact; a higher unemployment rate is negative for the Canadian Dollar. We need both to deviate in the same direction to create a trade. Today, it's nice to have one of these rare occurrences that don't come out with the highly anticipated NFP report. This data is Hot data, and we could get some pip's again today. Historic Deviations and Their Outcome March 12 2021 We saw a healthy + 184k positive deviation on the headline data Employment Change. With a positive 1% change in the Unemployment rate, which created a trade for me, I took on EURCAD to avoid any conflict from US data that came out simultaneously. I banked a few pips. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=33563;t=2021-3-12 13:30:00.0;s=EURCAD;r=M1 February 5 2021 We had NFP simultaneously; however, big devs worked slowly on EURCAD and USDCAD. We couldn't trade this simultaneously as NFP as NFP is likely to overshadow this report. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=28017;t=2021-2-5 13:30:00.0;s=EURCAD;r=M1 October 9 2020 We also had the same setup as of today and March, where this report doesn't come out with NFP; however, the forecast range was much broader. We still saw a good move on CAD pairs, although this was all over in the first minute. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=23196;t=2020-10-9 12:30:00.0;s=EURCAD;r=M1 My Forecasts For Today Empl Chg - Full Time 0 Employment Change 100 Unemployment Rate 8.0 Today's Trade Plan We have to look at the three main lines. Employment Change = Shows how many jobs were gained or added in the last month. Full Time= How many of those jobs were Full time because they have less value to the economy if they are part-time. Unemployment = More Unemployment is bad, and less is good. If we get a deviation from Employment change of around +75 (This is the key line of data) Add to that a +20 Full Time And 0.2+- from Unemployment Then we should see some great moves. Tradable Pairs EURCAD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Gidencenti, I also post an after trade update, so you can see how it worked out on this occasion; there wasn't a trade for me. Thanks for your interest, keep following. James.