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Financial News December 28, 2015 US household consumption likely to drive growth in 2016 University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment December final estimate was up to 92.6, slightly over expectations of 92.0. Current conditions were up to 108.1, the highest since June. The consumer expectations were revised upwards a tick to 82.7, below November print but still over October. Both were led by concerns related to personal finances, the current personal finances index climbed to 113 and expected personal finances went up to 124. "Buying conditions for durables now stand at 167 (previous: 154), the highest since 2005 and consistent with continued strength in motor vehicle sales. Sentiment now stands in line with its average pace of improvement over the course of the recovery, and we expect household consumption will continue to drive growth in 2016", says Barclays in a research note. Market Review December 28, 2015 The financial markets remain quiet with insignificant market movement as another holiday week begin. Released during the Asian session this morning, Japan's factory output fell for the first time in three months in November and retail sales slumped, suggesting that a clear recovery in the world's third-largest economy will be postponed until early in 2016. While manufacturers expect to increase output in coming months, the weak data casts doubt on the Bank of Japan's view that an expected pick-up in exports and consumption will help jump-start growth and accelerate inflation toward its 2% target. Industrial output fell 1.0% t in November from the previous month, more than a median market forecast for a 0.4 percent decline, data by the trade ministry showed on Monday. Moreover, retail sales fell 1.0% in November from a year earlier, more than a median forecast for a 0.1 percent drop. The USD/JPY pair remained near the 120.55 area, after dropping to the 120.15 area in the previous week. The economic calendar is rather empty for the day and rather light for the whole week as the holiday spirit is dominating the markets. The key events for the week would be the United States CB Consumer Confidence and Unemployment Claims. View our full economic calendar for a daily roundup of major economic events. Data releases to monitor: CAD: Bank Holiday (Boxing Day). GBP: Bank Holiday (Boxing Day). Trade Idea of the Day EUR/CAD Currently the pair is trading at 1.5182. Traders must monitor the 1.5318 resistance level and the support level 1.4955 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 1.5241 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 1.5275 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 1.5137 support level, where a break may lead to the 1.5095 area.

Financial News December 23, 2015 Key extracts from OPECs World Oil Report Oil producing nations' cartel OPEC has revised its demand estimate in its latest World Oil Outlook, however has warned over declining investments. OPEC demand projections are still higher than those projected by International Energy Agency (IEA). Saudi Arabia, also, few days back warned on declining investments posing challenge to future energy security. According to OPEC, from here till 2040, every year $400 billion investments are required to keep supply in line with rising demand. According to the cartel, demand is likely to come from emerging market economies, namely China and India. Overall global demand is likely to increase by 18 million barrels/day by 2040 to 109.8 million barrels per day. This figure, is however 1.3million barrels/day lower from previous projections, probably taking into account recent climate accord in Paris. Figure is still higher from IEA projections of 103.5 million barrels/day. In the medium term however it feels, oil demand to rise from current 92.8 million barrels/day in 2015 to 97.4 million barrels/day by 2020. On the supply side, the organization expects non-OPEC production to rise to 61.5 million barrels/day by 2025 but decline to 59.7 million barrels/day by 2040. On the other hand it expects OPEC production to rise by 10 million barrels/day by 2040. On the price front it now expects price to reach $70/barrel by 2020 and $95/barrel by 2040. Oil is currently trading at $36.8/barrel. Market Review December 23, 2015 The Asian session this morning was rather quiet with insignificant market movement and very few economic data. During the session, the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis released a report, which shows that consumer spending rose in November by 0.3%, that is in line with the expectations. The US Dollar seems to be paring back some of last week's gains against other major currencies such as the Euro and the Swiss Franc, which are the strongest major currencies for the month. For instance, EUR/USD remained near the 1.0930 area after reaching to the 1.0983 level yesterday, while the months’ highest was seen at the 1.1059 level until the moment. Released during the early European session, French Consumer Spending declined -1.1% missing the estimated 0.2%. The economic calendar is rather heavy today despite the fact that minor or perhaps muted reactions are expected in the market as the financial markets are in holiday mood. The key events for the day would be the United Kingdom Current Account and Final GDP, the Canadian Core Retail Sales, GDP and Retail Sales and finally, the United States Core Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales and Personal Income reports. Additional economic releases would be the United Kingdom Index of Services, the United States Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment and the Canadian Retail Sales. Data releases to monitor: EUR: Italian Retail Sales. GBP: Current Account, Final GDP, Index of Services, Revised Business Investment. USD: Core Durable Goods Orders, Core PCE Price Index, Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income, New Home Sales, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Crude Oil Inventories. CAD: Core Retail Sales, GDP, Retail Sales. CHF: KOF Economic Barometer. Trade Idea of the Day EUR/JPY Currently the pair is trading at 132.23. Traders must monitor the 133.78 resistance level and the support level 131.01 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 131.67 support level, where a break may lead to the 131.25 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 132.72 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 133.20 area.

Financial News December 22, 2015 Firmer USD likely to continue through 2016 After almost a decade, the U.S. Fed decided to hike its bank rate in mid of December. The economy is back on track, as growth rate picked up, and labor market has improved. On the other hand, the economy is expected to face higher inflationary pressure in near future. The central bank is expected to deliver four more hikes next year, and thereby capital inflows will intensify. This will inturn strengthen the US dollar in the currency market. "Every Fed tightening cycle is different and how USD trades depends on the path of rates relative to expectations, the path of rates in the rest of the world, and the reasons why the Fed is hiking, amongst other things. In the current cycle, these factors generally argue for USD strength extending into 2016. We think the forward curve significantly understates the extent to which rates will rise through 2016 and this is against a background where most other central banks are on hold or easing", states RBC Capital Markets. Market Review December 22, 2015 British consumer morale in December edged up from a six-month low in November, while households remain more worried about the economy than they were at the end of last year. Moreover, GfK said that its monthly consumer sentiment indicator rose to +2 in December from +1 in November, marginally stronger than a median forecast of +1. Furthermore, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) states that the lack of housing supply will drive prices up faster than household pay rises with an average 6% rise across the country and 8% in East Anglia. The rise in house prices was also supported by low interest rates and stable economic growth. Released during the early European session, Swiss Trade Balance came in at 3.14bln versus the estimated 3.82bln, German Import Prices declined -0.2% missing the estimated 0.2% rise and GfK German Consumer Climate came in at 9.4 beating the estimated 9.3. The financial markets are generally quiet this week as we approach the holiday season. The key events for the day are the United States Final GDP and Existing Home Sales, the United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing and New Zealand’s Trade Balance. Data releases to monitor: EUR: German Buba Monthly Report, Consumer Confidence. GBP: CBI Realized Sales. Trade Idea of the Day EUR/USD Currently the pair is trading at 1.0921. Traders must monitor the 1.1059 resistance level and the support level 1.0802 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 1.0960 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 1.1000 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 1.0862 support level, where a break may lead to the 1.0830 area.

Financial News December 21, 2015 FxWirePro: GBP/USD outlook focus for 2016 Pound is declining steadily against Dollar before and also after rate hike from US Federal Reserve of 25 basis points. Before Bank of England (BOE) published its weaker inflation outlook and started producing dovish monetary policy statement, Pound was expected to be the key contender to take the baton from Dollar, while BOE takes it from FED. Now the popular expectations have shifted and economist are now expecting another few firings from FED, before BOE finally takes over. Focus will be on inflation statistics as well as wage growth for this year. So far there is only one hawk in BOE board, Ian McCafferty, which we expect to grow by another two till September. Unless situation worsens over China, BOE could be very close to a hike by end of year, which could come into focus post June. Trade idea - We have long remained focused to the downside for the pair. Our call to sell GBP/USD @1.52 and 1.54 still active, with stop loss around 1.58 and targeting 1.425 area. Interim targets are 1.49 and 1.475. First one is reached. In this post, we would like to add another interim target of 1.45-1.445 area. Market Review December 21, 2015 The Financial markets seem to be getting into the holiday spirit, as no significant market movement was noticed despite Federal Reserve decision last week to lift the interest rates. Elsewhere, anti-austerity party Podemos and liberal Ciudadanos made big gains as the conservative Popular Party (PP) lost its majority. Spain seems that is heading for political uncertainty after the general election produced a deeply fragmented parliament with little chance of a stable government majority over the next four years. Spain’s next government will be handled a country in the midst of a strong but incomplete economic recovery, with the national output set to grow by more than three per cent in 2016, and unemployment falling steadily over the past two years. Moreover, the jobless rate, at more than 22 per cent, remains one of the highest in the western world, and concern is mounting over inequality and a lack of well-paid, stable jobs. Furthermore, the country has also been shaken by corruption scandals, and by tensions between the government in Madrid and the independence-minded region of Catalonia. Released during the Asian session, RBNZ Credit Card Spending rose 8.5% versus the previous of 7.8%, while Japanese All Industries Activity rose 1.0% beating the estimated 0.9%. USD/JPY remained near the 121.40 area while NZD/USD near the 0.6740 area. Released during the early European session, German Producer Price Index (PPI) declined -0.2%, which was in line with the economists’ expectation. The economic calendar for the day would be rather light with few economic releases. The key events for the day would be German Buba Monthly Report, Eurostat Consumer Confidence and the United Kingdom CBI Realized Sales. Data releases to monitor: EUR: German Buba Monthly Report, Consumer Confidence. GBP: CBI Realized Sales. Trade Idea of the Day NZD/USD Currently the pair is trading at 0.6744. Traders must monitor the 0.6840 resistance level and the support level 0.6635 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 0.6740 support level, where a break may lead to 0.6715 level and possible to 0.6680. An alternative scenario could be a bounce upwards after testing the 0.6740 support towards the 0.6775 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 0.6800.

Financial News December 18, 2015 Daily Economic Outlook: 18th December 2015 The market experts are still busy in assessing impact of the Fed's first rate hike in almost 10 years. Therefore, other indicators may not get much importance from market. In the United States, US Markit services PMI survey for December and Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for December are due today. Richmond Fed President Lacker expected to speak on the 2016 economic outlook at the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce will be watched closely. In euro area, no major indicators are scheduled to release today except November inflation and current account figure for October. Market Review December 18, 2015 The Bank of Japan surprised the markets today by voting 6-3 to increase purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and lengthening the maturity of bonds it purchases to encourage investment in the economy. The BOJ announced that under the new program, it will purchase ETFs at an annual pace of 300 billion yen composed of stocks issued by firms "proactively" investing in physical and human capital. The plan will start with purchases of ETFs tracking the JPX-Nikkei Index 400, which screens for factors including corporate governance and investor-focused management. The new ETF purchase program will begin in April 2016 and is in addition to the current ETF purchase program of around 3 trillion yen annually. Moreover, the BOJ held rates steady and said it will stick to its plan to increase the monetary base by 80 trillion yen a year, as expected. USD/JPY spiked up to the 123.57 level before dropping to the 121.80 area, where is currently trading. Elsewhere, Business confidence in New Zealand has improved to its highest level in eight months, according to ANZ Bank's latest business sentiment survey. More specifically, a net 23 percent of respondents in December expected the economy to improve over the coming year, compared with 14.6 percent the month before. Companies were also more upbeat about their own business outlook, with a net 34.4 percent expecting an improvement in their activity over the coming year, from 32 percent in November. The economic calendar for the day would be rather empty with the key events to be the Canadian Consumer Price Index, Core CPI and the United States Flash Services PMI. Data releases to monitor: CAD: Core CPI, CPI, Wholesale Sales. EUR: Current Account. USD: Flash Services PMI, FOMC Member Lacker speech. Trade Idea of the Day GBP/AUD Currently the pair is trading at 2.0859. Traders must monitor the 2.1213 resistance level and the support level 2.0673 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 2.0943 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 2.1037 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 2.0802 support level, where a break may lead to the 2.0725 area.

Financial News December 17, 2015 Four rate hikes by Fed likely next year After almost a decade the Fed initiated its monetary tightening policy with 25 base point rate hikes yesterday. The labor market showed a sign of improvement and economic growth rate on track. The unemployment rate started falling; experts believe that the unemployment rate will be below target level during 2016 - 18. With the expansion of labor market and stronger US dollar, the inflation rate is expected to increase further. The annual core CPI inflation was recorded at 2.0% year on year in November. "We anticipate that the Committee will increase the Fed Funds Rate four times in 2016 and another four times in 2017. Key to this view will be continued momentum in the labour market and a firming in global growth; both are necessary to mitigate downside risks to the outlook" says Westpac in a research note. Fed rate hike a temporary gain for Asia local markets After almost a decade, the Fed initiated its monetary tightening policy with a 25 base point rate hike yesterday, as expected. The Fed Chair Yellen indicated that the central bank is on the path of policy tightening, and it will increase its policy rate gradually. The FX, equity, and bond markets started reacting to the rate hike. The EM local currency and bond markets are positively reacted to the rate hike, and similar reaction is foreseen in EM Asia in the near future. "The improvement in risk appetite following the Fed hike also helped EM currencies to absorb the hike easily. In the near term as trading winds down for the year and flows thin, there may be further respite for EM Asia currencies, but we do not expect this to persist into 2016", states Barclays in a research note to its client. Market Review December 17, 2015 The Federal Reserve voted unanimously yesterday to raise interest rates by a quarter point (25Bps), marking the first increase in more than nine years. The bank raised its fed funds rate to a range of 0.25% to 0.50%, ending an unprecedented seven-year run of near-zero interest rates. The vote was 10-0. The board of directors also raised the discount rate to 1% from 0.75%. Moreover, the Fed said it will "carefully monitor" actual inflation in light of 'current shortfall." Furthermore, the FOMC stated in its statement "Given the economic outlook, and recognizing the time it takes for policy actions to affect future economic outcomes, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate." In addition, the Federal Open Market Committee said that interest rates are only likely to increase in a "gradual" manner, ending up at a long-run target of 3.5%. At a press conference following the announcement of the rate hike, Janet Yellen said that people should know that the Fed’s decision “reflects our confidence in the economy.” While economic conditions vary across regions and across industries, “we see an economy that is on a path of sustainable improvement,” Yellen went on. “I hope they take it as a signal that conditions will continue to strengthen, and jobs prospects will be good.” While she pointed out that the Fed will not rush into further hikes, and that it would monitor closely what was happening to the inflation rate. Moreover, Fed Chair Yellen dismissed concerns about the economy slipping back into recession. “I feel confident about the fundamentals driving the economy,” she said. She pointed to a healthy employment picture by mentioning that 2.3 million new jobs were created this year and strong growth in household demand, particularly for new cars and trucks. There is always the possibility that a negative shock will hit the economy, Yellen conceded, but she said that she did not see anything to be overly concerned about at the moment. After the Fed decision, US stocks surged sharply, with the DJIA rising 224 pts to close at 17749 and the S&P 500 rising to the 2077 level. On the other hand, EUR/USD spiked up to the 1.1010 area before dropping to the 0.0830 area. Elsewhere, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority raised its base rate for the first time in nine years, following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s lead overnight, and flagged the risk of rising capital outflows from the city. The key rate was raised to 0.75% from 0.50% the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said as Hong Kong’s currency is pegged to the U.S. dollar, which typically means that Hong Kong’s monetary policy moves in line with the Fed. Released during the Asian session today, Japan’s Trade Balance came in at 0.00T versus thee estimated -0.21T causing insignificant impact on the USD/JPY, which is currently trading near the 122.40 area. The key events for the day would be the German Ifo Business Climate, ECB Economic Bulletin, the United Kingdom Retail Sales and the United States Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Data releases to monitor: GBP: Retail Sales, CBI Industrial Order Expectations. EUR: German Ifo Business Climate, ECB Economic Bulletin, Italian Trade Balance. USD: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims, Current Account, CB Leading Index, Natural Gas Storage. Trade Idea of the Day EUR/AUD Currently the pair is trading at 1.5098. Traders must monitor the 1.5340 resistance level and the support level 1.4950 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 1.5042 support level, where a break may lead to the 1.4990 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 1.5146 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 1.5210 area.

Financial News December 16, 2015 Unemployment report to set mood for Pound heading into FOMC Since Bank of England (BOE) published its inflation report, suggesting no hike required from BOE in 2016, to keep inflation in check, pound has been struggling. After last week's dovish monetary policy statement, it's even struggling to clear 1.52 resistance area. Last night, stronger Dollar ahead of FOMC, just pushed pound few pips away from 1.5 support area. ILO unemployment reading to publish around 9:30 GMT today. - As of now unemployment rate in UK stands at 5.3% and median estimate says it will remain so in today's reading. - Once again major focus will be on earnings growth,since BOE policymakers in several instances announced they will be looking at wage growth component and current rate is not sufficient to generate targeted inflation. This component has gained sharply since last year, however slowed down somewhat in recent reading. In three months to September, average earnings excluding bonus rose by 2.5%, lower than 2.9% seen in July. - Today market is expecting slowdown further in earnings growth at 2.3% excluding bonus but to grow 2.5% including it. Impact - - Data, coming as expected, may not be very bullish for Pound as Bank of England (BOE) mentioned that current wage growth is not sufficient to give a rise in inflation. - However any wage growth below 2.3% likely to sour sentiment. - With better report, expect Pound to have better sentiment heading into FOMC. Market Review December 16, 2015 Janet Yellen, the chair of the Federal Reserve, has clearly signalled that the United States central bank is preparing to “normalise” policy, at its final meeting before the end of the year. Furthermore, the latest inflation data, published on Tuesday, which was in line with expectations at 0%, seems that has removed any final obstacles to a hike. Currently, the market has almost fully priced in a Fed funds rate hike of 25 Bps. Anything other than this should be a huge surprise and will possibly trigger great volatility in the financial markets. Moreover, if the FOMC don’t take action at a time when there is almost universal market expectation for a rate hike, Federal Reserve credibility will likely have never sunk to a lower level. In addition, if Janet Yellen and her colleagues highlight the remaining threats on the US economy, the rate hike will be viewed as a “dovish hike”, suggesting policymakers are more worried about growth than inflation, and reassuring markets that have become dependent on central bank support. The dollar came off a near one-week high versus the other major currencies today, but its losses were limited as the market counted down the hours to a likely hike in U.S. interest rates. Released during the Asian session, MI Leading Index declined -0.2% compared to the previous rise of 0.1%, while Japan’s Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.5 versus the previous of 52.6. USD/JPY rose to the 121.90 area after dipping to the 120.35 area yesterday. Released during the early European session, French Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.6 beating the estimated 50.6 and French Flash Services PMI came in at 50.0 versus the estimated 50.7. In addition, German Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 53.0 versus the expectations of 52, while German Flash Services PMI came in at 55.4 versus the estimated 55.5. EUR/USD is currently trading near the 1.0935 area with the next support seen at the 1.0904 level. The key events for the day would be the Federal Funds Rate decision, the FOMC Statement and Press Conference. Additional economic releases would be the United Kingdom Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate. New Zealand GDP and the Eurozone inflation report. View our full economic calendar for a daily roundup of major economic events. Data releases to monitor: GBP: Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count Change, Unemployment Rate. EUR: Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI, Final CPI, Final Core CPI, Trade Balance. CAD: Foreign Securities Purchases. USD: Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Press Conference, FOMC Statement, FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Press Conference, Crude Oil Inventories, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization Rate, Housing Starts, Building Permits. NZD: GDP. CHF: SNB Quarterly Bulletin, ZEW Economic Expectations. Trade Idea of the Day EUR/JPY Currently the pair is trading at 133.31. Traders must monitor the 134.21 resistance level and the support level 132.43 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 133.53 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 133.90 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 132.85 support level, where a break may lead to the 132.55 area.

Financial News December 15, 2015 Fed's second rate hike likely in April, 2016 The FOMC meeting on policy decission is scheduled tomorrow. The Fed is expected to hike rate for first time after almost 10 years. Looking forward, analysts foresee a series of rate hikes next two years. Some economic indicators hint the economy will rebound in Q4. Moreover, WTI crude oil is currently trading 10 dollars below FOMC target at USD36 per barrel.Further fall in oil prices will mire the EMs in crisis as corporate debt and bankrupties in the commodity sector. The FOMC is expected to take a cautious monetary majors. "We expect the second and third hikes to take place in April and September next year, respectively (every third meeting). The fourth hike is likely to come in December. In 2017, we expect a hike every other meeting (March, June, September and December)", argues Danske Bank. Market Review December 15, 2015 The Reserve Bank of Australia released during the Asian session this morning its December meeting minutes. In the text, the central bank suggested that the central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates. Furthermore, RBA said that recent flow of domestic data had generally been positive. In addition, output growth is expected to strengthen gradually over the next two years. Core inflation rates remained stable, but generally below the central bank’s target. The RBA said that the Australian Dollar is adjusting to significant declines in key commodity prices and boosting demand for domestic production. The central bank reiterated that the outlook for inflation might afford "some scope for a further easing of monetary policy". Moreover, the board will continue to assess the outlook and judge whether or not the current state of monetary policy is most effective for sustaining growth. Overall, the meeting minutes likely further weighed on RBA rate cut bets. The document appeared to justify the central bank’s relatively neutral monetary policy tone. Released also from Australia during the session, House Price Index (HPI) rose 2.0% versus the estimated 2.1% while New Motor Vehicle Sales rose 1.0% compared to the previous -3.7% decline. AUD/USD rose slightly, reaching as high as the 0.7283 level and currently is trading near the 0.7245 area. Released during the early European session, Switzerland’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.4% beating the estimated 0.1%. The economic calendar for the day is rather busy with economic releases from the United Kingdom the United States, New Zealand, Canada and the Eurozone. The key events would be the United Kingdom inflation data, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Canadian Manufacturing Sales, New Zealand’s GDT Price Index and the United States CPI and Core CPI. Data releases to monitor: GBP: CPI, MPC Member Haldane speech, PPI Input, RPI, Core CPI, HPI, PPI Output, BOE Quarterly Bulletin, CB Leading Index. EUR: German ZEW Economic Sentiment, ZEW Economic Sentiment, Employment Change. CAD: Manufacturing Sales, BOC Gov Poloz speech. USD: CPI, Core CPI, Empire State Manufacturing Index, NAHB Housing Market Index, TIC Long-Term Purchases. NZD: GDT Price Index, Current Account. Trade Idea of the Day GBP/AUD Currently the pair is trading at 2.0903. Traders must monitor the 2.1213 resistance level and the support level 2.0554 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 2.0805 support level, where a break may lead to the 2.0690 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 2.0962 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 2.1072 area.

Financial News December 14, 2015 EUR/USD likely to be at 0.95 by end-2016 European Central bank's rhetoric might at the December meeting might come at a long-term cost to EUR , while EUR/USD was forecasted higher last week. "We continue to forecast EUR/USD at 0.95 by end-2016", says Barclays in a research note. The year 2016 looks prepared for higher volatility in EUR/USD. While the Greek crisis has abated, there is a new escalation of tensions around most of highly-indebted EA countries are still a key risk as there is mounting up opposition to rising immigration and fiscal austerity. After the ECB meeting, the longer term inflation expectations in the market also dropped, with most recent flash estimate of HICP inflation disappointing significantly, which should be confirmed at 0.9% yoy, while previously it was at 1.1% yoy. Currently EUR is trading at 1.0965 against US dollar. Market Review December 14, 2015 The Asian session this morning was rather quiet despite the long awaited anticipated event from the FOMC on Wednesday. Released during the session, Japan's December tankan survey showed big manufacturers index +12 beating the estimated +11, while Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index came in at +25 beating the estimated +23. Moreover, Japanese Revised Industrial Production rose 1.4%, as expected by economists and Tertiary Industry Activity rose 0.9% versus the estimated 0.5%. USD/JPY is currently trading near the 121.30 area with the next support seen at the 120.56 level. The United States Federal Reserve is expected to start raising interest rates on Wednesday, in the first such move since 2006. The anticipated economic move has been described as “momentous” and a hugely significant milestone of progress in the repairing of the US economy since the damage done by the Great Recession. Furthermore, Janet Yellen, the Fed’s chair, had signalled that the central bank could raise interest rates from their record low of 0.25% in September, however the downturn in the Chinese economy and the resulting turmoil in financial markets, persuaded the Fed to change their mind and keep the current interest rates. The FOMC are due to hold their December policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, the scene has been carefully set for the first increase in US interest rates for almost a decade. Elsewhere, late on Friday, the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS), a sub-institutional organization of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), introduced a new exchange rate index that will see the Yuan (CNY), or renminbi, valued against a basket of 13 trade-weighted currencies. Furthermore, it is not clear if the PBOC will ever formally tie the Yuan to this gauge but CFETS did say the basket includes both G3 and Asian currencies. The Chinese government believes that "the bilateral renminbi-USD exchange rate is not considered a good indicator of the international parity of tradable goods". Introduction of the index would help gauge renminbi’s performance against a basket of trade-weighted currencies as "a basket of currencies can better capture the competitiveness of a country's goods and services, and better enable the exchange rate to adjust". The key events for the day would be the Eurostat Industrial Production, ECB President Draghi speech and MPC Member Shafik speech. Data releases to monitor: GBP: MPC Member Shafik speech. EUR: Industrial Production, ECB President Draghi speech. Trade Idea of the Day EUR/GBP Currently the pair is trading at 0.7229. Traders must monitor the 0.7279 resistance level and the support level 0.7163 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 0.7254 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 0.7275 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 0.7207 support level, where a break may lead to the 0.7175 area.

Financial News December 11, 2015 Checking on FED rate hike probabilities US Federal Reserve will be meeting on December 15th-16th, to decide on whether to hike rates or not. Market pricing of rate hike has somewhat softened after reaching as high as 84%. However hike expectations over next year for subsequent have firmed somewhat. Let's look at the market pricing of hikes over next few meetings. Current FED interest rate is at 0 - 0.25%. December, 2015 meeting - Market is attaching 28% probability that rates will remain 0 - 0.25% and 72% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%. January, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 23% probability that rates will remain 0 - 0.25% , 65% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5% and 12% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75%. March, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 11% probability that rates will remain 0 - 0.25% , 38% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%, 39% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75% and 6% probability that rates will be at 0.75-1% April, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 9% probability that rates will remain 0 - 0.25% , 38% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%, 40% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75%, 12% probability that rates will be at 0.75-1% and 1% probability that rates will be at 1-1.25%. June, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 6% probability that rates will remain 0 - 0.25% , 28% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%, 39% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75%, 21% probability that rates will be at 0.75-1% and 5% probability that rates will be at 1-1.25%. Market Review December 11, 2015 Asian session pasted without any major events and unexpected moves after yesterday central banks day both BOE and SNB behave as forecasted and kept the rates unchanged. Oppose to Fed and ECB monetary policy the BOE showed more calm regarding any changes in monetary policy and reiterated yesterday that it remains in no rush to change interest rates. Furthermore, the UK policymakers said they would not match an expected rate hike by the FED next week, stressing there was “no mechanical link” with its thinking. GBP after the BOE comments weakened against the USD however, analysts commented that GBPUSD pair still looks bullish in the medium term. SNB also kept the rate unchanged and the official report states that the target range for the three-month Libor remains between –1.25% and –0.25%, and the interest rate on sight deposits with the SNB is unchanged at –0.75%. The negative interest rate and the interest rate differential with other currencies make the Swiss franc less attractive, and continue to help weaken it however analysts say that the CHF is still significantly overvalued. Moreover, the SNB will remain active in the foreign exchange market in order to influence the exchange rate situation, as necessary. Looking ahead the US Retails Sales will be the highlight of the day where is forecasted to be at 0.2%. Furthermore ECB Targeted LTROmay move the market. In economic releases so far we had the German CPI final at 0.15. From China M2 Money Supply y/y at 13.7% and New Loans at 709 billion. Data releases to monitor: GBP: Construction Output m/m, Consumer Inflation Expectations, MPC Member Weale Speaks EUR: Targeted LTRO, Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate USD: Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m Trade Idea of the Day EUR/USD Currently the pair is trading at 1.0965. Traders must monitor the 1.1096 resistance level and the support level 1.0795 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 1.0940 support level, where a break may lead to 1.0910 level and possible to 1.0860. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 1.0980 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 1.1030.

Financial News December 9, 2015 Daily Economic Outlook: 9th December 2015 The Bank of England will draw domestic markets' attention as November Financial Policy Committee meeting of the Bank is scheduled today. The minutes of the meeting will provide the view of the Bank on risks to the UK's financial system amid slowdown in emerging markets and current account deficit of the economy, which remains close to a record high. In euro area, German's trade balance data for October are scheduled to release. The figures will be watched closely as they will indicate the growth outlook of the economy in Q4. "Today's speeches by the ECB Council members Lautenschlaeger, Nowotny and Hansson may shed some light on last week's surprisingly tepid ECB policy loosening, while the RBNZ are expected to trim the cash rate by 25bp to 2.5% later tonight", says Lloyds Bank. Market Review December 9, 2015 Consumer confidence has slipped after two cheerful months, according to the latest Westpac Melbourne Institute sentiment index, as the cooling housing market, talk of a rise in the GST (Goods and Services Tax) and worries about family finances began to display their impact. Westpac Consumer Sentiment index declined -0.8% this month, from 101.7 points in November to 100.8 points, seasonally adjusted. Released also from Australia during the Asian session, Home Loans eased 0.5% versus the estimated -1.0%. AUD/USD is currently trading near the 0.7225 area with the next support seen at the 0.7185 level. Released from Japan during the Asian session this morning, Core Machinery Orders unexpectedly rose 10.7% in October, posting a second straight month of gains, in a sign of a delayed pickup in business investment. Moreover, Prelim Machine Tool Orders declined -17.9% compared to the previous of -22.9% and BOJ M2 Money Stock rose 3.3% missing the estimated 3.5%. The Japanese Yen seems to be gaining against the US Dollar as the USD/JPY pair fell to the 122.70 area. Elsewhere, Switzerland's unemployment rate held steady for yet another month in November. More specifically, Unemployment Rate rose 3.4% as widely expected and in line with the previous data. Released from Germany during the early European session, Trade Balance came in at 20.8B beating the estimated 19.2B. EUR/USD rose to the 1.0915 area after breaking the 1.0900 level. The key events for the day would be the RBNZ Rate Statement, Official Cash Rate and Press Conference. Additional economic releases would be the FPC Meeting Minutes and Crude Oil Inventories. Data releases to monitor: GBP: FPC Meeting Minutes. USD: Wholesale Inventories, Crude Oil Inventories, 10-y Bond Auction. NZD: Official Cash Rate, RBNZ Rate Statement, RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement, RBNZ Press Conference. Trade Idea of the Day GBP/USD Currently the pair is trading at 1.5037. Traders must monitor the 1.5158 resistance level and the support level 1.4894 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 1.5100 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 1.5135 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 1.4995 support level, where a break may lead to the 1.4950 area.

Financial News December 8, 2015 ECB may easy monetary policy further Euro area is expected to post a sluggish growth rate in 2016. Rising non-performing loans, higher corporate and private debt, lack of significant economic reforms, and downward trend in housing prices in Italy and France hints weak economic momentum in the euro zone. The economy is expected to grow at 1.3%, and core inflation rate would be at 1% in 2016, estimates Commerzbank. Since weaker economic growth rate is foreseen in the euro area next year, the central bank may opt for further monetary easing. "We envisage a further reduction of the deposit rate by 0.1 percentage points to -0.4%, possibly at the March meeting. In addition, the ECB could again push the earliest date for an end to asset purchases beyond the current date of March 2017", says Commerzbank in a research note. Market Review December 8, 2015 The Asian session this morning was rather busy with economic releases from Japan, Australia and China. Released from Japan, Current Account came in at 1.49T versus the estimated 1.53T while Final GDP rose 0.3% beating the estimated 0.1%. Moreover, Bank Lending rose 2.3% compared to the previous of 2.5%, Final GDP Price Index rose 1.8% versus the estimated 2.0% and Economy Watchers Sentiment came in at 46.1 missing the estimated 4.6. USD/JPY is currently trading near the 123.10 area with the next resistance seen at the 123.65 level. Released from Australia, NAB business confidence rose to 5 in November compared to the previous of 3. The Chinese economic data was once again not so encouraging, as Trade Balance came in at 343B versus the estimated 395B and USD-Denominated Trade Balance came in at 54.1B versus the estimated 64.2B. Elsewhere, Crude Oil plunged to new 6-year lows on Monday, the trading day after OPEC decided to lift their output target, which pushed the price of Oil below the August 24th low. WTI is staying soft below $38 for the moment as markets saw OPEC's move as effectively abandoning the strategy of limiting productions. Released during the early European session French Gov Budget Balance came in at -76.2B while French Trade Balance came in at -4.6B versus the estimated -3.3B. EUR/USD is currently trading near the 1.0865 area with the next support seen at the 1.0796 level. The key events for the day would be the United Kingdom Manufacturing Production and Industrial Production, the Canadian Building Permits and Housing Starts. Additional economic releases would be the ECOFIN Meetings, NIESR GDP Estimate, JOLTS Job Openings and BOC Gov Poloz speech. Data releases to monitor: EUR: Revised GDP, ECOFIN Meetings. GBP: Halifax HPI, Manufacturing Production, Industrial Production, 30-y Bond Auction, NIESR GDP Estimate. USD: NFIB Small Business Index, JOLTS Job Openings, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. CAD: Housing Starts, Building Permits, BOC Gov Poloz speech. Trade Idea of the Day NZD/JPY Currently the pair is trading at 81.85. Traders must monitor the 83.35 resistance level and the support level 79.95 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 81.25 support level, where a break may lead to the 80.70 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 82.05 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 82.65 area.

Financial News December 7, 2015 Daily Economic Outlook: 7th December, 2015 The industrial production data in German for October is scheduled to release today. The reading will give an indication of the Q4 GDP outlook. "Following two months of consecutive decline, we forecast an increase of 0.8% m/m in October. A significant contribution to this pickup is expected to come from a rebound in manufacturing output", states Lloyds Bank. Last week, the U.S. employment report for November posted better than expected result. The robust employment report along with FOMC members' recent statements supports the markets expectation of Fed's first rate hike after June 2006. As the markets are expecting Fed's rate hike decision next week, market is expected to be silent this week. St. Louis Fed President Bullard is expected to support a rate rise at the December meeting in his today's comment. Market Review December 7, 2015 The United States unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.0% and the economy created 211,000 jobs in November, a healthy result that further increases the likelihood of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve later this month. Moreover, in its November 2015 Employment Situation report, released last Friday, the Labour department revised its employment figures for September and October, saying 35,000 more jobs were created than initially estimated. Wages also grew for the month, though at a slower pace than in October. Average hourly earnings climbed 4 cents, equating to a 2.3% annualized gain. The focus of the month is turned now on the FOMC meeting next week with the markets pricing in a 79% chance of a hike. Elsewhere, Oil price slides after OPEC failed to agree on production cuts. More specifically, the cost of a barrel of US crude oil has fallen by almost 1% to $39.61, below the $40 barrel mark. Furthermore, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) failed to agree on an oil production ceiling last Friday after a disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran meant that the group for the first time in decades did not even mention an output quota, which previously stood at 30 million barrels per day (bpd). Released during the Asian session this morning, ANZ Job Advertisements rose 1.3% versus the previous of 0.3%, while Japans’ Leading Indicators rose 102.9% as widely expected. Released during the early European session, German Industrial Production rose just 0.2% missing the estimated 0.8% and causing insignificant impact on the EUR/USD, which is currently trading near the 1.0845 area after reaching as high as the 1.0980 level during the last week. Released from Switzerland during the session, Foreign Currency Reserves came in at 563B compared to the previous of 551B. The key events for the day would be the Eurogroup Meetings, BOE Governor Carney speech and BOJ Governor Kuroda Speech. Additional economic releases would be the Sentix Investor Confidence, the United States Labour Market Conditions Index and Consumer Credit. View our full economic calendar for a daily roundup of major economic events. Data releases to monitor: EUR: Sentix Investor Confidence, Eurogroup Meetings. GBP: BOE Gov Carney speech. USD: Labor Market Conditions Index, Consumer Credit. JPY: BOJ Gov Kuroda speech. NZD: Manufacturing Sales. Trade Idea of the Day GBP/AUD Currently the pair is trading at 2.0595. Traders must monitor the 2.0955 resistance level and the support level 2.0340 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 2.0720 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 2.0825 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 2.0485 support level, where a break may lead to the 2.0390 area.

Financial News December 4, 2015 ECB may hold current policy rates in near future The ECB declared a deposit rate cut of 10 base points to -0.3% and kept all other rates unchanged. The Bank extended its asset purchase program for further 6 month and decided to reinvest the principal payments on the securities purchased under the program. Analysts support the central bank's decision because weakening currency too much will have a negative impact on the economy. "Today's deposit rate cut looks to have been the "final one" under the conventional policy pillar. We expect policy rates to remain at their current levels in the foreseeable future", says Rabobanks in a research note on Thursday. Market Review December 4, 2015 The European Central Bank stepped up yesterday its efforts to boost the Eurozone’s weak economy but the size of the stimulus disappointed the markets, driving up the euro against the dollar to as high as 1.0980 level after dipping to the 1.0517 area earlier in the day. Moreover, ECB cut the deposit rate to a record low of -0.30% and vowed to print money for as long as it takes to defeat deflation, pushing its radical stimulus measures to extremes never seen before in any major region in modern history. In addition, Mario Draghi, the ECB’s president, said the bank will keep buying EUR 60bn of bonds each month as far out as March 2017 or “beyond if necessary”. It is effectively an open-ended pledge. “Abundant liquidity will continue for a long, long time,” he said. ECB actions came despite signs that economic growth in the Eurozone is picking up, and ignores intense protests from German-led hawks that quantitative easing at this late stage is doing more harm than good. Elsewhere, Federal Reserve chair, Janet Yellen, has strongly indicated during her testimony to the Congress yesterday that Federal Reserve policymakers are likely to vote to raise US interest rates in two weeks, barring any major shocks to the global economy. Moreover, she noted that unemployment had lowered to 5%, economic growth was continuing well and she was confident that inflation would return to the Fed’s 2% target. “I currently judge that US economic growth is likely to be sufficient over the next year or two to result in further improvement in the labour market,” she said. “Ongoing gains in the labour market, coupled with my judgment that longer-term inflation expectations remain reasonably well anchored, serve to bolster my confidence in a return of inflation to 2%.” Released during the Asian session this morning, Australian Retail Sales rose 0.5% versus the estimated 0.4%, Japanese Average Cash Earnings rose 0.7% beating the estimated 0.7% and Consumer Confidence in Japan came in at 42.6 beating the estimated 41.8. Released during the early European session, German Factory Orders rose 1.8% beating the estimated 1.3%, while Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined -0.1% versus the estimated 0.0%. The key events for the day would be the United States Non-Farm payroll, Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate. The data will be critical, as it is the last bunch of important economic data before the Fed’s rate decision on December 16. Data releases to monitor: EUR: Retail PMI. CAD: Employment Change, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, Labour Productivity, Ivey PMI. USD: Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Trade Balance. Trade Idea of the Day USD/CAD Currently the pair is trading at 1.3351. Traders must monitor the 1.3407 resistance level and the support level 1.3283 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 1.3380 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 1.3405 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 1.3330 support level, where a break may lead to the 1.3300 area.

Financial News December 3, 2015 ECB likely to cut deposit rate at todays meeting The ECB has given a hint of adjusting its asset purchase program along three tools, such as time commitment, pace, and composition. A change in time and pace may be expected, but it is a less effective toll to influence exchange rate. Since the euro area experiencing lower core inflation outlook, the ECB will choose a monetary tool that will help the Bank to correct the inflation outlook. "The ECB could cut the deposit rate by 10bp and provide the market with forward guidance of further cuts. Another option would be to cut 20bp and signal its willingness to cut more if needed", argues Barclays. Market Review December 3, 2015 The economic data from Australia was once again in focus during the Asian session. More specifically, Australia released its Trade Balance, which came in at -3.31B missing the estimated -2.61B, HIA New Home Sales declined -3.0% versus the previous of -4.0% and AIG Services Index came in at 48.2 versus the previous of 48.9. AUD/USD remained near the 0.7320 area with the next resistance seen at the 0.7342 level. Released during the early European session, Spanish Services PMI came in at 56.7 beating the estimated 56.2 and causing insignificant impact on the EUR/USD, which returned to the 1.0570 area. Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen indicated yesterday that she is ready to raise short-term interest rates this month barring a surprise that shakes her confidence in the economy. Moreover, she stated that she sees dissension within her ranks, which could complicate her moves toward ending seven years of near-zero rates. “I don’t need unanimity. I think we have to tolerate some dissent,” Ms. Yellen said in answer to a question after delivering a speech on the economic outlook. “I wouldn’t try to stifle dissents, and I would even expect some at critical junctures.” Furthermore, she anticipated "continued economic growth at a moderate pace that will be sufficient to generate additional increases in employment, further reductions in the remaining margins of labour market slack and a rise in inflation to our 2 per cent objective." In another place, the BoC stayed neutral as it left the overnight rate target unchanged at 0.5% the Bank Rate unchanged at 0.75% and the deposit rate at 0.25%. The Canadian dollar stayed in established range against the US Dollar. The pair is currently trading near the 1.3315 area with the next support seen at the 1.3280 level. The key events for the day would be the ECB rate decision and press conference, where the Central Bank is expected to announce expansion of policy easing. Furthermore, there are also talks that ECB would further lower the deposit rate, which currently stands negative at -0.2%. Additional economic releases would be the United States Unemployment Claims and Fed Chair Yellen testimony. Data releases to monitor: EUR: Italian Services PMI, French Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, Final Services PMI, Retail Sales, Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, French 10-y Bond Auction, Minimum Bid Rate, ECB Press Conference. GBP: Services PMI. USD: Unemployment Claims, Final Services PMI, Fed Chair Yellen Testimony, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders, Natural Gas Storage, FOMC Member Fischer speech. Trade Idea of the Day GBP/CAD Currently the pair is trading at 1.9893. Traders must monitor the 1.9999 resistance level and the support level 1.9775 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 1.9830 support area and further downward movement to 1.9775 level. An alternative scenario could be a movement near the 1.999 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 2.0075.

Financial News November 30, 2015 EUR/CHF likely moves upside ahead of ECB's December meeting The KOF leading growth indicator in Switzerland, GDP and CPI inflation will slightly impact and the import data will only be of second importance despite expectations for a stabilization in inflation and growth. The Swiss Franc will likely trade largely after the ECB meeting. Latest ECB meeting rhetoric has risen market expectations for additional stimulus from SNB, which causes CHF depreciation. Swiss National Bank might not pre-empt the ECB, but however respond at its December meeting with its "nuclear" option, causing material CHF depreciation. "We see EUR/CHF higher post the SNB meeting and expect the SNB to actively intervene post ECB should EURCHF depreciate. We remain long USDCHF spot and look for material further upside", says Barclays in a research note. Market Review November 30, 2015 The Asian session was busy with economic releases from Japan and Australia. Released from Japan, Retail Sales rose 1.8% beating the estimated 0.9%, while Prelim Industrial Production rose 1.4% versus the estimated 1.9% and Housing Starts declined -2.5% versus the estimated rise of 2.5%. USD/JPY is currently trading near the 122.80 area with the next resistance seen at the 123.05 level. Released from Australia, MI Inflation Gauge showed a 0.1% rise versus the previous of 0.0%, Company Operating Profits rose 1.3% beating the estimated 1.1% and Private Sector Credit rose 0.7% versus the estimated 0.6%. AUD was strong in November as RBA maintained a neutral stage and supported by strong job data. However, the AUD is vulnerable to any weak Chinese data such as Chinese PMI data. AUD/USD is currently trading near the 0.7200 area with the next support seen at the 0.7158 level. Released during the early European session, German Retail Sales dropped -0.4% missing the estimated 0.3%. The Euro remained weak thru the previous week and today, and seems that would continue heading south. The focus this week would be on the ECB Meeting on Thursday, where the European Central Bank is widely expected to announce additional easing measures. Some of these measures may include further reduction in the deposit rate and expansion of the asset purchase program. EUR/USD remained near the 1.0590 area with the next support seen at the 1.0565 level. Elsewhere, KOF Economic Barometer came in at 97.9 versus the estimated 100.3. The USD/CHF pair currently trades at 1.0301, which was last seen in August 2010. Furthermore, Gold (XAU/USD) hit fresh five-year low by reaching to the 1052.63 level on Friday. The key events for the day would be the United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, M4 Money Supply and Mortgage Approvals. Additional economic releases are the United States Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales and the Canadian Current Account. Data releases to monitor: EUR: Italian Prelim CPI. GBP: Net Lending to Individuals, M4 Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals. CAD: Current Account. USD: Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales. NZD: Overseas Trade Index. Trade Idea of the Day NZD/USD Currently the pair is trading at 0.6555. Traders must monitor the 0.6603 resistance level and the support level 0.6492 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 0.6579 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 0.6600 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 0.6518 support level, where a break may lead to the 0.6500 area.

Financial News November 27, 2015 2016 global macro economic outlook In 2015, global macro economic outlook was mostly dominated by the hike aniticipations from Fed and global growth. There were obstacles in US growth in the beginning of the year, in Q2 and early Q3 there was increase in Euro area's sovereign debt concerns, with August's Chinese currency volatiltiy. The inflaxion point likely remains in place for the next year. According to RBC Capital Markets, Global growth and global headline inflation should stabilize and start picking up, Fed hikes will highlight central bank policy divergence, USD has room for further gains, even after the first Fed hike, RMB is likely to weaken through the year EM corporate debt/leverage will remain a concern. Market Review November 27, 2015 The Asian session was busy with economic releases from Japan. More specifically, National CPI core stayed unchanged at -0.1%, while Tokyo CPI core improved more than expected to 0.0. Furthermore, household spending dropped sharply by -2.4% in October. Nonetheless, unemployment rate dropped to 3.1% in October, hitting the lowest level in 20 years. USD/JPY is currently trading near the 122.30 area with the next support seen at the 122.25 level. Released from the United Kingdom during the session,. Gfk index of consumer confidence fell unexpectedly last month. In a report, GfK NOP said that U.K. Gfk Consumer confidence fell to a seasonally adjusted 1, from 2 in the preceding month. Released during the early European session, German Import Prices declined -0.3% versus the estimated -0.1% while French Consumer Spending declined by -0.7% versus the estimated rise of 0.2%. Furthermore, Spanish Flash CPI declined by -0.3% versus the estimated -0.5%. EUR/USD rose slightly despite the negative economic data and currently is trading near the 1.0625 area. The key events for the day would be the United Kingdom Second Estimate GDP, Prelim Business Investment and Index of Services. Additional economic releases are the Italian 10-y Bond Auction, GfK German Consumer Climate and the Canadian Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI). Data releases to monitor: EUR: Italian 10-y Bond Auction, GfK German Consumer Climate. GBP: Second Estimate GDP, Prelim Business Investment, Index of Services. CAD: RMPI, IPPI. Trade Idea of the Day USD/CAD Currently the pair is trading at 1.3319 Traders must monitor the 1.3435 resistance level and the support level 1.3246 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 1.3340 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 1.3375 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 1.3291 support level, where a break may lead to the 1.3260 area.

Financial News November 26, 2015 Daily Economic Outlook: 26th November, 2015 Japan's October CPI and labor market data will draw market attention today. In the last policy meeting, BoJ did not make any change on broad assessment of inflation expectations. The headline CPI is priced to stay in negative territory at -0.1% y/y for October, foresees Lloyds Bank. It also anticipates some modest policy easing by BoJ in October to 0.8% from 0.9%. In the euro area, ECB's easing in credit conditions supports the economic activity of the region. In the past couple of months, a weaker pace is observed in the growth of annual money supply in the euro area. The consumer spending in German is supported by solid consumer confidence. "Since hitting a thirteen year high in June, the GfK measure of German consumer confidence has weakened in recent months and a further easing is expected in the reading for December. However, it still remains elevated and points to the prospect of further gains in German consumer activity", added Lloyds Bank. Market Review November 26, 2015 Australian business investment plunged during the third quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics figures showed today. In the three months to September, capital expenditure fell a staggering 9.2%. It came as a huge shock to most economists as many were expecting a decline of just 2.9%. More specifically, total investment amounted to just $31.4 billion in Q3, while business spending declined by 20% compared to last year. The latest economic figures from Australia will put pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates again, which contradicts with the latest comments of the RBA governor Glenn Stevens who suggested to ‘chill out’ on prospects for interest rate cuts. The Australian dollar wiped out some of yesterday’s gains against the US Dollar and fell to the 0.7220 area, after reaching to the 0.7282 area. Reuters news agency reported yesterday that Euro zone central bank officials are considering options such as whether to stagger charges on banks hoarding cash or to buy more debt ahead of the next European Central Bank meeting. Furthermore, some ECB officials said that “even buying rebounded loans at risk of non-payment has been discussed in preparatory meetings, although such a radical step is highly unlikely for now”. The meeting of the ECB's monetary policy committee next Tuesday (December 3) is firmly in focus, with expectations that the central bank could introduce more stimulus measures to revive inflation and boost growth in the region. The Euro dropped to a more than seven-month low of $1.0565 on Wednesday as speculation mounted over what form the stimulus might take. The day is expected to be quiet, as the US banks will be closed in observance of Thanksgiving Day. The key events for the day would be the ECB M3 Money Supply, GfK German Consumer Climate and Private Loans. Data releases to monitor: EUR: M3 Money Supply, Private Loans, GfK German Consumer Climate. CAD: Corporate Profits. Trade Idea of the Day GBP/JPY Currently the pair is trading at 185.09. Traders must monitor the 187.00 resistance level and the support level 183.85 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 184.90 support level, where a break may lead above the 184.30 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 186.00 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 186.00.

Financial News November 25, 2015 Daily Economic Outlook: 25th November, 2015 PCE deflator data of the U.S. will draw markets' attention today. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, is likely to increase to 1.4% on the 'core' rate in October, says Lloyds Bank. This will boost the Fed confidence that inflation is returning to its target level. The Chancellor's Autumn Statement in U.K. is likely to provide the day's domestic focus. The Autumn Statement provides a scope for a mid-year adjustment. "Although we expect the Chancellor to claw his way back to the balanced budget objective for 2019/20 - and the OBR to still project a surplus in the final year of the projections in 2020/21 - we look for a cumulative increase in borrowing of around £40bn over the 5-year forecast horizon. The overshoot for 2015/16 should still be sufficiently modest, however, to avoid any meaningful change for the planned gilt issuance in this fiscal year", argues Lloyds Bank. Market Review November 25, 2015 Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens signalled yesterday, at a business economists forecasting conference in Sydney, that interest rates will stay on hold at next Tuesday's meeting saying the case for leaving them steady was one he "happened to agree with". The RBA had not cut rates even though the economy was growing more slowly than it could and inflation was low. RBA governor also added, “I'm more than content to lower it if that actually helps, but is that the best thing to do at any particular time?” Stevens asked, while replying to a question on the cash rate. In addition, he said, “We've got Christmas. We should just chill out, come back and see what the data says.” The Australian dollar surged to one month high after RBA governor hints no rate cut plan in 2015, AUD/USD rose sharply to the 0.7282 area and currently is trading near the 0.7265 area. Elsewhere, the BoJ minutes of October 30 noted that some members of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy board believe that an output gap was one reason the country was taking longer to meet inflation targets, minutes of the central bank's latest meeting showed Wednesday. Concerns about the output gap were not shared by the majority, but they highlighted a lingering worry that the delay in Japan meeting the BOJ's 2 percent target meant that its quantitative easing had been ineffective. An output gap is the difference between what an economy is producing and what it could produce if operating at its most efficient. A negative output gap - when a economy is producing less than it could at optimum - indicates weak demand, which in turn can mean low inflation pressure. USD/JPY dropped slightly today and currently is trading near the 122.35 area. Released during the Asian session this morning, Japan’s SPPI rose 0.5% missing the estimated 0.6% while Australian Construction Work Done declined by -3.6% versus the estimated -1.8%. The key events for the day would be the United Kingdom Autumn Forecast Statement and BBA Mortgage Approvals, the United States Core Durable Goods Orders, Unemployment Claims and New Zealand’s Trade Balance. Data releases to monitor: NZD: Trade Balance. GBP: BBA Mortgage Approvals, Autumn Forecast Statement. USD: Core Durable Goods Orders, Unemployment Claims, Core PCE Price Index, Durable Goods Orders, Personal Spending, Personal Income, HPI, Flash Services PMI, New Home Sales, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Crude Oil Inventories, Natural Gas Storage. EUR: Italian Retail Sales, German 10-y Bond Auction. AUD: RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speech. Trade Idea of the Day USD/CHF Currently the pair is trading at 1.0164. Traders must monitor the 1.0225 resistance level and the support level 1.0091 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 1.0142 support level, where a break may lead to the 1.0115 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 1.0196 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 1.0215 area.

Financial News November 24, 2015 Daily Economic Outlook: 24th November, 2015 The German IFO survey, Bank of England MPC testimonies and the second estimate of US Q3 GDP will draw market attention today. The BoE Governor Carney and Chief Economist Haldane will confirm to the Treasury Select Committee, along with external MPC members Forbes and Vlieghe. The November Inflation Report was more dovish than expected. The annual CPI inflation was expected to remain below 1% until the second half of next year and coming to target only in late 2017, based on market-implied interest rates, estimates Lloyds Bank. The U.S. Q3 GDP second estimate is likely to be revised up to around 2% on a qoq annualized basis. The detail should confirm that underlying domestic activity posted a robust growth to warrant a potential rise in policy rates in December. Consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed survey are also expected to release. A moderate improvement in the German IFO headline index is expected at 108.4, says Lloyds Bank. However, despite the expected increase, the implied pace of growth would be observed as insufficient by the ECB to enable it to meet its inflation mandate. Market Review November 24, 2015 European Central Bank executive board member Sabine Lautenschläger said on Monday that she does not see a need for the central bank to boost up its stimulus measures, suggesting that if the ECB presses forward with more easy-money policies in December, it will do so without the support of its influential German contingent. "For me it is clear: At the moment I see no reason for further monetary policy measures, especially not an expansion of the asset-purchase program," Ms. Lautenschläger said in prepared remarks for a conference in Munich. Her comments come just days after ECB President Mario Draghi sent a strong signal that the ECB was ready to expand its bond-purchase program and reduce its deposit rate further into negative territory at the December policy meeting. "If we conclude that the balance of risks to our medium-term price stability objective is skewed to the downside, we will act by using all the instruments available within our mandate," he said last Friday. EUR/USD remained near the 1.0640 area, with the next support seen at the 1.0592 level. Released during the Asian session this morning, Japan’s Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.8 beating the estimated 52.1 and causing insignificant impact on the on the USD/JPY, which is currently trading near the 122.62 area. Released during the early European session, German Final GDP showed that the German economy have grown by 0.3% in the third quarter, as predicted in an earlier estimate. The key events for the day would be the German Ifo Business Climate, the United Kingdom Inflation Report Hearings, the United States Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and RBA Gov Stevens speech. Data releases to monitor: CHF: Employment Level. GBP: Inflation Report Hearings, CBI Realized Sales. USD: Prelim GDP, Goods Trade Balance, Prelim GDP Price Index, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI, CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Manufacturing Index. EUR: German Ifo Business Climate, Belgian NBB Business Climate. CAD: Gov Council Member Patterson speech. AUD: RBA Gov Stevens speech. Trade Idea of the Day USD/CAD Currently the pair is trading at 1.3327. Traders must monitor the 1.3435 resistance level and the support level 1.3246 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 1.3290 support level, where a break may lead to the 1.3260 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 1.3363 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 1.3400 area.

Financial News November 18, 2015 Daily Economic Outlook: 18th November, 2015 In the United States, housing starts and building permits will update the performance of housing market. Construction in the U.S. has accelerated as the housing sales have started growing this year. "After a surge in September, concentrated in the volatile multi-unit sector, starts are expected to have fallen in October. However, a solid rise in permits should point to further construction increases in the pipeline", says Lloyds Bank. The release of the minutes for the October FOMC meeting is expected to draw markets' attention. Experts are eagerly waiting to know how many members are interested on rate hike in December. Similarly, minutes of recent Bank of Japan policy meeting will be released tomorrow. As the GDP growth of the economy declined in Q3, which is second consecutive quarterly fall, the BoJ is expected to be under pressure to bring back the economy on track. Market Review November 18, 2015 Yesterday, data released from the United States showed that the inflation rose slightly, raising the chance of interest rate hike in December. More specifically, the consumer price index rose 0.2% after falling the previous two months. Apart from energy and food, sectors with volatile price changes, U.S. consumer prices rose 1.9 percent over the past year, which is close to the Federal Reserve's target of two percent. The US Dollar remained firm against other majors such us EUR, CHF and JPY, while remained relatively stable against the GBP. EUR/USD extended losses reaching as low as the 1.0630 area, while USD/JPY rose to the 123.48 area. USD/CHF rose to the 1.0150 area and GBP USD remained near the 1.5201 area. Released from Australia during the Asian session this morning, CB Leading Index declined -0.1% versus the previous of -0.4% while MI Leading Index and Wage Price Index remained flat at 0.1% and 0.6% respectively. AUD/USD is currently trading near the 0.7095 area with the next support seen at the 0.7070 level. The key event for the day would be released from the United States. FOMC Meeting Minutes will be monitored closely, as information regarding a possible rate hike in December may be revealed from FOMC members. Additional economic releases would be the United States Building Permits, Housing Starts and FOMC Member Dudley speech. View our full economic calendar for a daily roundup of major economic events. Data releases to monitor: CHF: ZEW Economic Expectations. GBP: 10-y Bond Auction. USD: FOMC Member Dudley speech, Building Permits, Housing Starts, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Meeting Minutes. NZD: PPI Input, PPI Output. Trade Idea of the Day USD/CAD Currently the pair is trading at 1.3312. Traders must monitor the 1.3369 resistance level and the support level 1.3225 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 1.3297 support level, where a break may lead to the 1.3270 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 1.3338 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 1.3360 area.

Financial News November 17, 2015 EUR/USD likely to trade at 0.95 by Q3 16 TThe poor performance of the Chinese economy is likely to increase downside risks for euro area growth and inflation. Therefore, ECB is likely to respond the down momentum with additional policy easing in the form of a time extension to QE. Barclays anticipates deposit rate cut of 10 bp. However, a deposit rate cut is likely to build pressure on the EUR. Therefore, EURUSD pair is likely to fall further. "We forecast EURUSD to depreciate to 1.03 by year-end and trade at 0.95 by Q3 16", argues Barclays. Market Review November 17, 2015 ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio , during an event in Frankfurt yesterday, warned that the terror attacks in Paris could hit investor confidence in Europe. Moreover, he condemned the “terrible events” in Paris and cautioned that they would compound the problems already facing the region. “Several factors surround what happened and responses are not easy to find because it then compounds on all the problems we were already facing quite recently,” Constancio said. Furthermore, Vice president Constancio noted, “markets are so far taking it calmly,” but warned that it was still too early to know the economic cost of the attacks and added that if they affect consumer and business confidence and risk aversion, “the consequences can of course be worse,” he said. The common currency had seen some down pressure, EUR/USD dropped to the 1.0655 area, while EUR/GBP plunged to the 0.7020 area. In addition, European equity markets had seen some slight movement. FTSE Eurofirst 300 was little changed compared with Friday’s close, while the French stock market index, the CAC 40, was fractionally down having recovered from a 1 per cent drop at its opening. The Asian session was rather quiet with no economic few economic releases. Released from New Zealand, longer term inflation expectations weakened marginally, with annual consumers price inflation expected to be 1.85 percent in two years' time, compared with an expectation of 1.94 percent for the same measure in the September survey. NZD/USD is currently trading near the 0.6460 area, with the next support seen at the 0.6286. The key events for the day would be the United Kingdom inflation data, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI), Core CPI and New Zealand’s GDT Price Index. Data releases to monitor: EUR: Italian Trade Balance,German ZEW Economic Sentiment, ZEW Economic Sentiment. GBP: CPI, PPI Input, RPI, Core CPI, HPI, PPI Output. USD: CPI, Core CPI, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production, Mortgage Delinquencies, NAHB Housing Market Index, TIC Long-Term Purchases. NZD: GDT Price Index. Trade Idea of the Day AUD/USD Currently the pair is trading at 0.7082. Traders must monitor the 0.7158 resistance level and the support level 0.7015 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 0.7049 support level, where a break may lead to the 0.7027 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 0.7127 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 0.7150 area.

Financial News November 16, 2015 Daily Economic Outlook: 16th November 2015 The final euro area CPI prints for October and US Empire manufacturing survey will draw markets' attention today. The headline CPI growth of the euro area relapsed into negative territory during September. "We expect another -0.1% y/y print as downside signals from the latest BRC survey look set to be offset by forecourt prices. Meanwhile, the core rate, which excludes energy and food, is anticipated to edge down to 0.9% y/y from 1.0% in September. After spending linked to the Rugby World Cup propelled headline retail sales to 1.9% m/m (6.5% y/y) in September, we are looking for a flat October reading from Thursday's release. This would still leave annual sales growing by a very healthy 4.9%", says Lloyds Bank. There is a speculation of the monetary policies of the FOMC and ECB are likely to move in opposite directions in December. Market Review November 16, 2015 The Japanese economy deteriorated more severely than expected in the third quarter extending a downturn into a second consecutive three-month period and putting the country in technical recession. More specifically, Japanese gross domestic product (GDP) fell by an annualized 0.8% from a year earlier in the September quarter, the second straight decline. A darkening outlook for global growth has put Japanese businesses on the defensive. One concern is China, where growth in Asia’s largest economy is slowing, in some sectors markedly, meaning there is less demand for industrial equipment, construction machinery and other capital goods, much of which has been supplied by producers in Japan. Released also from Japan, Prelim GDP Price Index rose 2.0% versus the estimated 1.7%. USD/JPY is currently trading near the 122.65 area with the next support seen at the 122.22 level. Elsewhere, global stock markets reacted after the deadliest attacks to hit France since the Second World War. The attacks left more than 100 people dead, dozens injured and left warnings that the terrorist attacks in Paris could spark a renewed session of volatility. The euro fell with French stock-index futures as investors responded to Europe’s worst terror attack in a decade by shifting out of riskier assets. Demand for havens boosted gold, government bonds and the dollar. Europe’s common currency weakened 0.3% and futures on France’s CAC 40 Index sank 1.5% as the violence in Paris on Friday sparked concern that geopolitical tensions will hurt trade and consumer confidence. Chinese shares in Hong Kong paced losses in Asian equity markets after authorities restricted the use of borrowed money to buy shares, while U.S. index futures dropped. Gold advanced the most in a month and Treasuries climbed for a fifth day, while Oil halted two weeks of losses. The key events for the day would be the Eurozone’s Final CPI, Final Core CPI, ECB President Mario Draghi speech and the Canadian Manufacturing Sales. Additional economic releases are the Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases, Empire State Manufacturing Index and RBA Assist Gov Kent speech. Data releases to monitor: EUR: Final CPI, Final Core CPI, ECB President Draghi Speech, German Buba Monthly Report. CAD: Manufacturing Sales, Foreign Securities Purchases. USD: Empire State Manufacturing Index. AUD: RBA Assist Gov Kent speech. Trade Idea of the Day NZD/USD Currently the pair is trading at 0.6532. Traders must monitor the 0.6624 resistance level and the support level 0.6497 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 0.6560 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 0.6600 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 0.6515 support level, where a break may lead to the 0.6500 area where the support level would be tested.

Financial News November 12, 2015 Daily Economic Outlook: 12th November 2015 Swedish CPI, Eurozone industrial production and US weekly jobless claims data are expected to release today. The Swedish numbers deserve extra mention in light of the Riksbank's recent decision to expand its QE programme and its willingness to cut rates further. Markets are looking for Sweden October CPI to stay at 0.1%y/y, but for CPIF to edge up to 1.1%y/y, notes Lloyds Bank. Fed Chair Yellen is likely to give welcoming remarks, but more detailed comments may come from Evans, Dudley and Fischer. In particular, the views of the potential for December liftoff from dovish Evans could garner the most attention. Lacker and Bullard, both on the more hawkish end of the spectrum, are also scheduled to speak. ECB President Draghi will speak at the quarterly hearing before the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee today morning. His comments will be closely scrutinised to gauge the degree of consensus on the Governing Council to expand the QE programme and/or cut the deposit rate at the next meeting on 3 December. More hawkish members have indicated caution about easing policy further, but Mr Draghi last week reaffirmed comments he made at the last press conference that "the degree of monetary accommodation will need to be re-examined". In the UK, Bank of England Chief Economist Haldane is due to speak at 17:00GMT. Market Review November 12, 2015 Australia’s jobless rate has fallen to 5.9% versus the expectations of 6.2%, hitting an 18-month low, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Furthermore, the Australian economy added 58.6K jobs in October, almost four times more than consensus forecasts of 14.8K, while MI Inflation Expectations rose 3.5%. AUD/USD rose sharply during the Asian session in response to surprising employment report, the pair rose from the 0.7060 area to the 0.7150 area, where is currently trading. Released from Japan during the Asian session, Core Machinery Orders rose 7.5% beating the estimated 3.3% while Producer Price Index (PPI) declined -3.8% versus the estimated -3.5% USD/JPY remained near the 122.95 area with the next resistance seen at the 123.60 level. Released during the early European session, German Final CPI stayed flat at 0.0% while French CPI rose 0.1%. EUR/USD is currently trading near the 1.0735 area, with the next resistance seen at the 1.0789 level. The key event for the day would be ECB President Draghi speech, the United States Unemployment Claims and Fed Chair Yellen speech. Additional economic events would be JOLTS Job Openings, Federal Budget Balance and the Eurozone Industrial Production. View our full economic calendar for a daily roundup of major economic events. Data releases to monitor: EUR: ECB President Draghi Speech, Industrial Production. GBP: MPC Member Haldane speech. CAD: NHPI. USD: Unemployment Claims, Fed Chair Yellen speech, JOLTS Job Openings, FOMC Member Evans speech, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Member Dudley speech, 30-y Bond Auction, Federal Budget Balance. Trade Idea of the Day CAD/JPY Currently the pair is trading at 92.59. Traders must monitor the 93.24 resistance level and the support level 92.13 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 92.39 support level, where a break may lead to the 92.20 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 92.82 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 93.05 area.

Financial News November 11, 2015 EUR/USD to reach new low in 2016 Despite the survey data remain constructive; the real financial conditions in euro area are showing some downward risks to the economic activity. The Fed's tightening policy, less extreme positioning and some central bank reserve liquidation are together may drive down the EUR/USD pair to new cycle lows, argues RBC Capital Markets. There is a long time for inflationary pressures start to show which should keep EUR/USD cyclically weak as a slow pace of recovery in the economy is seen. Daily Economic Outlook: 11th November 2015 Data wise, the latest UK labour market report will provide some reassurance that underlying trends remain solid. Employment in the 3 months to August rose by 140k which, alongside a 79k drop in unemployment, combined to nudge the jobless rate lower to 5.4% from 5.5%. The latest surveys of hiring intentions point to further job gains in UK and a rise of 120k in the 3 months to September, notes Lloyds Bank. While a further decline in the number unemployed is expected. The jobless rate is expected to remain at 5.4% for now, forecasts Lloyds Bank. Consistent with a firm pace of labour market activity, earnings growth is also expected to firm over the same period to 3.2% on the headline measure despite a modest easing in regular pay growth. The Bank of England's Open Forum will be attended by ECB President Mario Draghi, who is scheduled to speak at 13:15 GMT, while comments from Governor Carney are also expected throughout the day. The recent Chinese data are unlikely to have materially altered ongoing speculation of further bouts of easing from the People's Bank of China, the reported health of the Chinese economy remains a key influence over the outlook for US monetary policy. The downside risks to the US economy from weakening global growth may be less severe than previously thought will be the key reason for the shift towards a more hawkish stance by the FOMC. Market Review November 11, 2015 China’s Singles’ Day, an e-commerce shopping festival, revealed new batch of economic data, showing that retail sales rose 11% beating the estimations of 10.9%, that is the fastest pace this year. Alibaba, China’s e-commerce giant that accounts for more than 80% of China's internet sales market, said sales surpassed the record amount of $9.3bn made last year in just over half the time. Furthermore, the firm stated via its news website Alizila.com that “in just over an hour total GMV reached 4 Billion US Dollar” and that “more than 27 million purchases came via mobile devices in the first hour”. The latest developments derived despite the recent slowing growth in China, giving the world's second-biggest economy another chance to prove that it can improve the economic outlook of the country. Released also from China during the Asian session, Industrial Production rose 5.6% versus the estimated 5.8% and Fixed Asset Investment rose 10.2%, which was in line with the consensus. Released during the early European session, Japanese Prelim Machine Tool Orders declined -23.1% versus the previous of -19.1% and German WPI dropped -0.4% missing the estimated 0.2%. The key event for the day would be the United Kingdom job data. Claimant Count Change is expected to rise 1.6k, while unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.4%. Moreover, Average Earnings Index is expected to rise 3.2% compared to the previous of 3.0%. Additional economic events would be ECB President Mario Draghi speech and Business NZ Manufacturing Index. Despite the economic events, it is expected to be a quiet trading day as the United States, France and Canada are on holiday. View our full economic calendar for a daily roundup of major economic events. Data releases to monitor: EUR: ECB President Draghi Speaks. GBP: Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count Change, Unemployment Rate. NZD: Business NZ Manufacturing Index, FPI. Trade Idea of the Day EUR/JPY Currently the pair is trading at 132.19. Traders must monitor the 133.18 resistance level and the support level 131.46 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 132.52 resistance level, where a break may lead to the 132.85 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 131.87 support level, where a break may lead to the 131.55 area.