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Correlations Australian Dollar Targets Highs as VIX at Lows Correlations: Australian Dollar Targets Highs as VIX at Lows We expect the Australian Dollar may continue its rally against the US Dollar as the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) trades near multi-year lows and commodity prices continue higher. We expect the Australian Dollar may continue its rally against the US Dollar as the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) trades near multi-year lows and commodity prices continue higher. The Australian Dollar’s substantial interest rate advantage over the US currency makes AUDUSD-long positions especially attractive to many speculators. That yield spread becomes especially significant when we see financial markets remain very complacent. Given that cross-market correlations remain quite strong, a low VIX suggests the AUDUSD could continue trading higher alongside the S&P 500 itself. Forex Correlations Summary View forex correlations to the SPDR Gold ETF Trust (GLD), United States Oil Fund ETF (USO), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA), UK FTSE 100 Index, and IShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) prices. more Feb 28, 2012 10:00 OctaFX is proud to offer top-notch service level to its customers. Please stay tuned for the news and updates from OctaFX! Euro leaders won't decide on bailout fund Friday Euro leaders won't decide on bailout fund Friday Euro leaders won't meet Friday, delaying decision on boosting bailout fund BRUSSELS (AP) -- The office of European Council President Herman Van Rompuy says there won't be a special summit of eurozone leaders Friday. That means a highly anticipated decision on whether to increase the currency union's bailout funds won't be made until later in March. An official at the European Council said Tuesday that Van Rompuy decided not to call a special meeting of the 17 euro leaders Friday. The official declined to be named in line with department policy. The meeting of the 27 European Union leaders on Thursday and Friday will take place as scheduled. Feb 28, 2012 10:00 OctaFX is proud to offer top-notch service level to its customers. Please stay tuned for the news and updates from OctaFX!

FOREX Dollar, Yen Sold as Risk Appetite Firms on ECB LTRO Hopes FOREX: Dollar, Yen Sold as Risk Appetite Firms on ECB LTRO Hopes The US Dollar and Japanese Yen are under pressure as sentiment recovers on hopes the second ECB LTRO operation will reduce Eurozone crisis contagion risk. Talking Points Dollar, Yen Sell Off as Risk Appetite Firms Ahead of ECB LTRO Outcome Euro Likely to Look Past German CPI Data as Inflation Rate Holds Steady The US Dollar and Japanese Yen declined against most of their leading counterparts in overnight as Asian stocks rose, sapping demand for the go-to safe haven currencies. Risk appetite is on the upswing as traders look ahead to the outcome of the second 3-year ECB long-term refinancing operation (LTRO). Median forecasts call for a take-up of €470 billion this time around after a €489 billion outing in December. As discussed in detail in our weekly fundamental trends monitor, such an outcome is likely to downgrade the threat of a Eurozone-driven credit crunch in the eyes of investors, boosting market-wide sentiment. The final LTRO results are due to be announced tomorrow. S&P 500 stock index futures are trading higher in early European trade, hinting the risk-on mood is likely to continue to boost risk-linked currencies against the greenback and the Yen. On the data front, the focus is on February’s preliminary German Consumer Price Index reading. Expectations suggest the annual inflation rate will remain unchanged at 2.1 percent for the third consecutive month, a likely neutral outcome for the Euro. Indeed, priced-in expectations already call for a flat ECB outlook in the coming 12 months, so confirmation of the status quo is unlikely to mean much for the single currency particularly as LTRO preoccupies traders’ attention. more Feb 28, 2012 09:05 OctaFX is proud to offer top-notch service level to its customers. Please stay tuned for the news and updates from OctaFX!

Euro and British Pound at Risk, Commodity Currencies Aim Higher Euro and British Pound at Risk, Commodity Currencies Aim Higher The Euro and British Pound appear vulnerable while the commodity bloc currencies aim higher against the US Dollar through the rest of the trading week. Major Currencies vs. US Dollar (% change) 20 Feb 12 – 24 Feb 12 Talking Points Euro at Risk as LTRO Feeds Dilution Bets, Greece Struggles with Bailout Terms Japanese Yen Selling to Resume if Bernanke Testimony Unravels QE3 Outlook British Pound Vulnerable vs. Dollar if US Yields Jump on Shift in Fed Posture Comm Dollars Aiming Higher as Risk Appetite Improves on LTRO, US Growth. more Feb 28, 2012 07:14 OctaFX is proud to offer top-notch service level to its customers. Please stay tuned for the news and updates from OctaFX!

EURUSD Classical Technical Report 02.28 EUR/USD Classical Technical Report 02.28 EUR/USD: The latest break and daily close above 1.3325 ends a recent bout of multi-session consolidation and now opens the door for the next upside extension towards the 1.3600-1.3700 area over the coming days. While our broader outlook remains aggressively bearish with a downside target by 1.2000 in 2012, the 2012 correction within the broader downtrend off of the 2008 record highs is still in play, and shows potential for additional gains. Still, we prefer to remain sidelined as our bearish bias has us looking for opportunities to sell rather than attempting to buy into a corrective rally within a broader downtrend. We would also not rule out the possibility for a topside failure ahead of 1.3600-1.3700, but given the latest break, the risk for additional gains seems like a very real possibility that needs to be considered and anticipated. Back under 1.3350 will be required at a minimum to alleviate immediate topside pressures. Feb 28, 2012 07:14 OctaFX is proud to offer top-notch service level to its customers. Please stay tuned for the news and updates from OctaFX!

FOREX Euro Braces for German Vote on Greek Bailout, Money Supply Data FOREX: Euro Braces for German Vote on Greek Bailout, Money Supply Data The Euro is bracing for a German vote on the second Greek bailout package and January’s money supply data which may show ECB LTRO is diluting the currency. Talking Points Germany’s Bundestag to Vote on Second Greek Bailout Terms Euro Zone Money Supply Data in Focus on Economic Calendar US Dollar, Yen Rise on Haven Demand as Stocks Drop in Asia The focus turns to the mechanics of implementing the second Greek bailout agreement to start the trading week. Athens has a long checklist of requirements to complete before the EU leaders’ summit beginning on Thursday and traders will be paying close attention to official commentary on progress. While EU policymakers have allowed Greece to miss ample deadlines before, their tolerance for Athens’ foot-dragging has likely eroded since the ECB provided EU banks with enough money (€489 billion) via its LTRO facility to prevent a default in the sickly country from turning into a region-wide credit squeeze in December. Greece has about €300 billion in outstanding government bonds according to data from the OECD. With this in mind, a vote on the bailout’s terms in the Bundestag, the more powerful lower house of the German parliament, will be closely watched today. On the data front, Euro Zone Money Supply figures headline the docket. Expectations call for the annual growth rate to tick moderately higher to 1.8 percent in January. Money stock data is likely to take on added significance over the coming months as traders gauge the impact of new money injected via December’s ECB LTRO. A strong pickup in money growth is likely to feed expectations of Euro dilution and weigh on the single currency in a similar way that the Federal Reserve’s QE and QE2 programs proved punishing for the US Dollar. The US Dollar (ticker: USDollar) and Japanese Yen staged a narrow recovery in overnight trade, adding as much as 0.2 and 0.3 percent on average respectively against their leading counterparts. The move appeared driven by safe-haven demand as Asian shares declined, with the MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index fell 0.5 percent. The newswires attributed the selloff to worries about the impact of rapidly rising oil prices on the outlook for global growth. WTI crude has rallied for 10 consecutive trading days – testing the $110/barrel level – on worries of supply disruption amid escalating tension between Iran and Western powers. A decision by G20 finance ministers to delay additional funding to the IMF likely added to selling pressure. Europe hoped the increase in resources would boost the fund’s contribution to Eurozone crisis-fighting efforts. Feb 27, 2012 08:13 OctaFX is proud to offer top-notch service level to its customers. Please stay tuned for the news and updates from OctaFX!

EURUSD Classical Technical Report 02.27 EUR/USD Classical Technical Report 02.27 EUR/USD: The latest break and daily close above 1.3325 ends a recent bout of multi-session consolidation and now opens the door for the next upside extension towards the 1.3600-1.3700 area over the coming days. While our broader outlook remains aggressively bearish with a downside target by 1.2000 in 2012, the 2012 correction within the broader downtrend off of the 2008 record highs is still in play, and shows potential for additional gains. Still, we prefer to remain sidelined as our bearish bias has us looking for opportunities to sell rather than attempting to buy into a corrective rally within a broader downtrend. We would also not rule out the possibility for a topside failure ahead of 1.3600-1.3700, but given the latest break, the risk for additional gains seems like a very real possibility that needs to be considered and anticipated. Back under 1.3350 will be required at a minimum to alleviate immediate topside pressures. Feb 27, 2012 07:20 OctaFX is proud to offer top-notch service level to its customers. Please stay tuned for the news and updates from OctaFX!

NZDUSD Classical Technical Report 02.27 NZD/USD Classical Technical Report 02.27 NZD/USD: After trading well into overbought territory, daily studies are finally starting to roll over to warn of a near-term top and potential bearish reversal. Look for a break back below 0.8250 to confirm reversal prospects and open downside acceleration towards the 0.8000 area. A daily close back above 0.8550 however negates and gives reason for pause. Feb 27, 2012 07:13 OctaFX is proud to offer top-notch service level to its customers. Please stay tuned for the news and updates from OctaFX!

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