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Date: 1st July 2025. Markets Rally into Q2 Close – What’s Fueling the Momentum? Treasuries and Wall Street ended June – and the second quarter – with strong momentum, closing firmly in positive territory. A combination of quarter-end buying, investor FOMO, and supportive macro drivers helped fuel the rally. Hopes for Fed rate cuts, easing inflationary pressures, renewed tariff negotiations, reduced geopolitical tensions, and optimism around a potential tax bill all played into the bullish mood. In the bond market, yields fell notably. The 2-year Treasury yield dropped 3.3 basis points to 3.715%, while the 10-year declined 4.3 basis points to 4.234% — both hitting their lowest levels since May 1. For June, the 2-year yield fell 21 bps and was down 16 bps over the quarter. The 10-year yield matched the 21 bps monthly decline but rose 6 bps over Q2. Equities pushed higher into fresh record territory. The NASDAQ closed up 0.47% at 20,369, securing its third straight all-time high. The S&P 500 gained 0.52% to finish above 6,200 for the first time, while the Dow Jones rose 0.63% to 44,094 — reclaiming the 44,000 level last seen in February. June delivered over 4% gains for both the Dow and S&P, with the NASDAQ soaring 6.6%. For the quarter, the NASDAQ surged 17.75%, marking its strongest performance since Q2 2020. Volatility eased further, with the VIX inching up 0.4% to 16.73 but still well below its April 8 spike of 52.33. Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) weakened to 96.802, its lowest since early 2022, slipping from an earlier high of 97.318. Gold rose 1% to $3,308.50 per ounce, while crude oil eased 0.69% to $65.07 a barrel. Markets reacted positively to news that Canada will withdraw its proposed tax on US tech firms, prompting a resumption of trade talks. President Trump had previously halted the negotiations, calling the tax ‘a direct and blatant attack.’ Investors now speculate that easing tensions could prevent further tariff hikes. Still, uncertainty lingers. Many of Trump’s tariffs are only temporarily suspended and are scheduled to resume on July 9. Analysts at Deutsche Bank warn that the market rebound could give the administration confidence to revive 2018–2019-style tariff escalations. Asian Markets Mixed as Global Rally Echoes Asian markets were mostly in the green on Tuesday, following Wall Street’s back-to-back monthly gains. However, Japan’s Nikkei 225 retreated 1.4% to 39,910.83 despite a better-than-expected Tankan survey showing improved sentiment among large manufacturers. In China, the Shanghai Composite edged up 0.4% to 3,458.56 as manufacturing and services PMIs both reached three-month highs (49.7 and 50.5 respectively). South Korea’s KOSPI climbed 0.8% to 3,095.67, lifted by rebounding exports, particularly in semiconductors, ships, health products, and electric vehicles — although analysts remain cautious on US auto exports due to tariff headwinds. Australia’s ASX 200 ticked up 0.1% to 8,545.10, and the Philippine PSEi rose 0.4%. Hong Kong’s markets were closed for the holiday. In corporate news, tech and M&A headlines fueled gains: Oracle jumped 4% after CEO Safra Catz revealed multiple multi-billion-dollar cloud deals in the pipeline. GMS soared 11.7% after agreeing to a $5.5 billion cash buyout from a Home Depot subsidiary at $110/share. Rival bidder QXO, which previously offered $95.20/share, saw its stock rise 3.9%, while Home Depot slipped 0.6%. Hewlett Packard Enterprise rose 11.1%, and Juniper Networks gained 8.4% after both companies reached a DOJ agreement that could clear the path for HPE’s $14 billion acquisition of Juniper. Bank stocks also advanced after the Fed affirmed that major institutions could weather a potential downturn. JPMorgan rose 1%, and Citigroup added 0.9%. In the bond space, Treasury yields fell ahead of Thursday’s critical nonfarm payrolls report, released a day early due to the July 4th holiday. In early Tuesday trading, US crude dipped 22 cents to $64.89 a barrel, and Brent lost 21 cents to $66.53. The US dollar edged lower to 143.69 yen, and the euro strengthened slightly to $1.1778. Gold Prices Surge on Fed Rate Cut Hopes, Dollar Weakness Gold rallied for a second day as investors positioned for possible Fed rate cuts and trade volatility. August futures climbed 1.09% to $3,343.60 on COMEX. Spot gold was last seen at $3,322.64 in Singapore, up 0.6%. Traders have priced in increased odds of two rate cuts in 2025. If upcoming jobs data disappoints, Treasury yields could slide further — a scenario typically favourable for gold. Bullion is now up over 25% year-to-date, trading less than $200 below its record high from April. Trade concerns also remain in focus. The July 9 deadline for resuming suspended US tariffs is drawing closer, adding a layer of uncertainty to the outlook. The dollar’s recent weakness — down nearly 11% in H1 2025, its worst first-half showing since 1973 — has also supported gold’s advance. Analysts continue to see an upside for gold. ‘Despite some recent softness, gold has the clearest upside potential if the dollar continues to weaken,’ wrote Vivek Dhar of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Elsewhere in precious metals: Platinum dipped after a stellar 29% rally in June, driven by supply tightness and speculative demand. Silver and palladium both edged higher. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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The main events by the morning: June 30 Trump will appoint only a candidate willing to lower interest rates as the new head of the Federal Reserve System. He criticized the current chairman, Jerome Powell, calling him a «stubborn ass» and expressing hope for his resignation, although Powell's term expires in May 2026. Currently, the Fed is keeping the rate at 4.25-4.5%, but Trump insists on a significant reduction. The United States lifted sanctions against Russia regarding the Paks-2 NPP project in Hungary. This was stated by the country's Foreign Minister Szijjarto. The construction of the station can be continued. Recall that in November 2024, the Biden administration imposed sanctions against Gazprombank, through which the project was financed. Canada has made concessions to the United States in the trade war. The country will abolish the digital services tax against American companies ahead of an expected deal with the United States. Negotiations on the trade agreement are scheduled to resume by July 21. All G7 countries are ready to make concessions to the Trump administration. They agreed on Saturday to exempt American companies from certain provisions of the existing global tax agreement. The G7 said the plan recognizes existing U.S. minimum tax laws and aims to increase the stability of the international tax system. South Korea postponed the digital won pilot due to costs and lack of a commercialization plan. Instead, the Central Bank will focus on regulating stablecoins linked to won in order to reduce dependence on dollar tokens and preserve financial sovereignty. The eight largest banks are already working on the creation of such a stablecoin, and the issue will be controlled through licensed banks to protect the economy.

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