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Date: 1st December 2025. December Opens Strong: Stocks Up, PMIs Down, Oil Rebounds. December opens with a surprisingly firm tone across global financial markets. Equities remain solidly positive for the year, with the MSCI World Index still trading just below its record highs from October. Despite concerns that higher global tariffs would damage economic activity, the impact has been more limited than feared. Supportive central banks and renewed optimism around artificial intelligence continue to underpin sentiment. At the same time, attention is shifting toward consumer and holiday spending, an important indicator of how resilient demand remains amid affordability concerns and broader economic uncertainty. Early readings suggest holiday spending will be strong. Salesforce estimates global online Black Friday sales at $79 billion, while Adobe reported record online spending throughout the long weekend, including $11.8 billion on Black Friday alone. The National Retail Federation expects US November–December sales to exceed $1 trillion for the first time ever. Central bank policy remains a key theme into year-end. The Federal Reserve and Bank of England are widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, while the ECB, BoC, BoJ and SNB are expected to hold steady. US Outlook: Markets Fully Reprice a December Fed Cut US markets have shifted decisively back toward expectations of a December rate cut after weeks of uncertainty. Implied rates currently reflect roughly 20 bps of cuts for December and nearly 30 bps for the January meeting. Dovish remarks from NY Fed President Williams, combined with softer economic data, have outweighed the more hawkish tone from Chair Powell earlier in November. This week brings a busy economic calendar with PCE price data, personal income and spending figures, ISM manufacturing and services reports, jobless claims, ADP employment, consumer sentiment, industrial production, and corporate layoff announcements. Notably, there is no Non-Farm Payrolls release this week due to the calendar structure. Holiday spending remains a central focus. Despite inflation and a cooling labor market, consumers were highly active throughout the Black Friday and Cyber Monday period. Adobe expects Cyber Monday to reach $14.2 billion in online sales, while online spending over the weekend remained consistently strong. Retailers such as Macy’s, Kohl’s, Abercrombie & Fitch and others saw mixed performance as investors try to gauge how durable consumer demand will be going into 2025. The December 10 FOMC meeting may still be contentious. Powell is expected to aim for broad consensus on a 25 bps cut, with some members, such as Miran, leaning toward a larger move. A signal of a likely pause in January may help minimize dissent within the committee and maintain policy credibility. Historically, more than two dissenting votes are rare, making Powell’s messaging especially important. Mixed Markets and Persistent Manufacturing Weakness Asian markets began the week with a mixed tone. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell nearly 2% after weaker corporate investment figures and another month of contraction in the Manufacturing PMI. The PMI rose slightly to 48.7, but remained below the 50 threshold for the fifth straight month, reflecting soft domestic and global demand. China’s factory activity also contracted for the eighth consecutive month, highlighting ongoing economic challenges despite an extended trade truce with the US. Elsewhere, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose nearly 1%, supported by gains in tech, while the Shanghai Composite, Australia’s ASX 200, Taiwan’s Taiex, and Korea’s Kospi delivered modest or flat moves. Weakness in regional PMIs reflects the lingering impact of US tariffs and weaker global manufacturing demand. However, exports in several Asian economies have shown signs of recovery in recent months, offering a partial offset to domestic softness. US Equities: AI Momentum Continues Despite November Tech Volatility US stock indices ended the post-Thanksgiving session higher, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all advancing. Still, the tech sector was volatile through November. Nvidia closed the month with a double-digit loss, while Oracle and Palantir also posted steep declines. In contrast, Alphabet recorded a nearly 14% monthly gain on the back of excitement surrounding its Gemini AI model, reinforcing that AI developments remain a major driver of sector leadership. Oil Market Update: Prices Rebound as OPEC+ Holds Output Plan Oil prices rose more than $1 per barrel early Monday after OPEC+ reaffirmed its intention to keep production hikes on hold during the first quarter. Brent traded above $63, while WTI hovered near $60. However, November marked the fourth consecutive monthly decline for crude as expectations of a substantial supply surplus in 2026 weighed on sentiment. At the same time, geopolitical tensions, including US rhetoric toward Venezuela, Middle East instability, and damage to Kazakhstan’s pipeline infrastructure, continue to limit the downside and keep markets on edge. FX Market: Dollar Softens on Rate-Cut Expectations The US dollar weakened against major currencies, with USDJPY sliding to 155.33 and the EURUSD rising slightly to $1.1609. Rate-cut expectations, shifting risk appetite, and improving global equity sentiment all contributed to the dollar’s softer tone. Crypto Markets Face Heavy Liquidations as Volatility Intensifies Crypto markets experienced sharp losses after nearly $646 million in leveraged positions were liquidated across major exchanges. Bitcoin fell over 5% to around $86,000, while Ethereum dropped more than 6% to the $2,815 level. Altcoins such as Solana, XRP, BNB and Dogecoin also saw declines between 4% and 7%. The majority of liquidations were long positions, indicating the move was driven primarily by forced unwinding rather than fundamental shifts in sentiment. Open interest in BTC and ETH futures fell further, suggesting the leverage accumulated during the October rally continues to wash out. With liquidity still thin and macro uncertainty elevated, intraday volatility is expected to remain high. Conclusion: A Strong Start to December, but Risks Remain The first days of December offer a picture of resilient consumer spending, strong global equity performance, and cautious central banks preparing for year-end policy decisions. Yet challenges remain: Asian manufacturing continues to weaken, tech stocks are navigating renewed volatility, oil markets face conflicting forces, and crypto remains exposed to leverage-driven swings. As the month progresses, markets are likely to remain sensitive to inflation data, central bank guidance, and holiday-related consumer trends. For now, the balance of risks suggests a cautiously optimistic tone, but with the potential for sharp moves across asset classes. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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USDT-BEP20: 0x57586c90863004738d1d4091a9b49d62fc929562479cd1f91fe1ef0069ce2f61 Nov-30-2025 04:53:00 PM UTC 10 BSC-USD

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USDT-BEP20: 0xeb3485b54486b93d669386f89930c5a3dff15453bd8d0e1487b85c4b810b3582 Nov-29-2025 08:34:43 PM UTC 2.36 BSC-USD