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Date: 15th August 2025. Producer Inflation Hits 2-Year High, Fed Still Seen Cutting. The US Producer Price Inflation rises to its highest level since April 2022 triggering a sudden decline in stocks. Consumer inflation previously came in lower than expected. Economists still expect a rate cut in September 2025, so investors re-entered at the lower price. Due to this the NASDAQ, Dow Jones and SNP500 are all trading higher. A big factor of the day's fundamental analysis will be the Russia-US talks in Alaska. NASDAQ Regains Losses But Trails Behind The NASDAQ has been the best performing US index of 2025 and the previous years. However, since the Producer Price Index, the NASDAQ is struggling. The NASDAQ is still trading higher than the decline triggered by yesterday’s PPI but weaker than the SNP500 and Dow Jones. Prior to the PPI announcement the NASDAQ’s performance in 2025 was trading 5% higher than the SNP500 and 10% higher than the Dow Jones. The NASDAQ is also exposed to markets outside of the technology sector. As a result, investors are opting to invest in the SNP500 and Dow Jones which are known to be less risky and have a lower possibility of being overbought. Nonetheless, all indices are being positively influenced by the Federal Reserve’s potential move to cut interest rates and today’s meeting between President Trump and President Putin. If the meeting bears fruit, the market sentiment is likely to continue rising. Currently, on Friday 15th, 44% of the most influential stocks are increasing in value, which is relatively low. However, Amazon, Microsoft and NVIDIA are trading higher, supporting the NASDAQ, Dow Jones and SNP500. Dow Jones and SNP500 Outperform The NASDAQ The Dow Jones is trading 0.76% higher and the SNP500 0.24%. The Dow Jones is performing particularly well as investors believe the index may be trading below its intrinsic value and due to its exposure to defensive stocks. The USA30 is now trading at an all-time high and higher than the resistance levels which can be seen from earlier in the year and 2024. However, the price will largely depend on the outcome of today’s meeting between President Putin and President Trump as well as the follow up meeting with Ukraine’s leader Zelensky. In addition to this, the release of NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings report will also be vital to all US indices. Lastly, Warren Buffet is known to have recently purchased stocks within the Dow Jones which have declined in 2025. Mr Buffet is known to purchase stocks which are trading below their true value. Dow Jones 30-Minutes Chart The US, Federal Reserve And Inflation Weekly labor market data showed Initial Jobless Claims at 224,000, slightly below forecasts and the prior reading, while Continuing Claims fell to 1.953 million. Despite the weekly improvement, the broader labor market remains under pressure according to economists. However, this is not necessarily being shown in the actual data. As of yet, the NFP reading is not triggering any alarm bells, but is known as a lagging indicator. July wholesale inflation surged, with PPI up 0.9% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, far above estimates. Core PPI matched the same gains. The data signal rising inflation risks and lessen chances of near-term Fed easing, though Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee still sees scope for policy softening this fall. Mr Goolsbee told journalists, the risks to employment is a particular concern for him. Key Takeaway Points: US Producer Price Inflation hits highest since April 2022, triggering a sudden stock market drop. NASDAQ underperforms SNP500 and Dow after PPI data despite strong 2025 gains. Dow Jones reaches all-time high on defensive stock exposure and perceived undervaluation. Rising PPI reduces odds of near-term Fed easing despite some officials still favoring policy softening. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Kiwi Short Term Price Action Outlook The New Zealand Dollar versus the US Dollar (NZDUSD), commonly nicknamed the “Kiwi,” is a major forex pair that reflects the relative strength of New Zealand’s economy against the US. Today, the NZD is influenced by a combination of domestic economic data and US macroeconomic indicators. On the fundamental side, New Zealand’s Performance of Manufacturing Index and Food Price Index releases are expected to provide insights into local economic activity and inflation trends, while US Retail Sales, New York Manufacturing Index, Import Price Index, and other consumer spending and production reports will heavily impact USD strength. Positive US data may boost the dollar, applying downward pressure on NZD-USD, whereas stronger-than-expected NZ data could support Kiwi gains. Traders should closely monitor these releases, as shifts in consumer confidence, inflation expectations, and manufacturing output will likely drive short-term volatility in the NZD/USD daily chart and H4 price action. Image Chart Notes: • Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00) • Candles’ time-frame is 4h. Analyzing the NZD USD H4 chart, the pair is currently moving in a short-term bearish trend, trading below a well-defined red descending trend line that has been tested three times. The Kiwi price has reached the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, which aligns with the long-term bullish blue trend line, creating a strong support zone. After touching this level, a green candle formed, suggesting a short-term correction. Price action is currently interacting with the Ichimoku Cloud, moving along its lower band, which has acted as additional support. The cloud itself is green, indicating potential bullish momentum if buyers step in. The %R indicator is at -89.9, recently turning upward but still in the oversold territory below -80%, signaling a possible rebound. Overall, this H4 setup suggests that while bearish momentum dominates short-term moves, the support confluence at the 0.236 Fibonacci level and lower cloud band could trigger corrective upward movement, offering traders potential buy opportunities within the context of the overall downtrend. •DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes. Capitalcore

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