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Date: 30th July 2025. Global Markets Mixed as US-China Trade Talks Stall, Fed Holds Rates, and Euro Retreats. US-China Trade Tensions Weigh on Investor Sentiment Financial markets opened the midweek session on a cautious note as the latest round of US-China trade talks concluded in Stockholm without a definitive agreement. Both countries indicated willingness to extend the current tariff truce set to expire on August 12, but no final decision has been reached. China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng described the discussions as “constructive,” noting that both sides agreed to continue working toward an extension. Meanwhile, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed the topic was discussed but emphasised that any extension still requires approval from President Donald Trump. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that although the dialogue was ‘fulsome,’ the Chinese may have ‘jumped the gun’ in announcing a pause. Strategic concerns such as China’s purchase of Iranian oil and export of dual-use technology to Russia were also raised. Asian and US Markets React to Trade and Earnings Headwinds Asian equities responded with mixed movements. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 1.2%, while the Shanghai Composite gained 0.2%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined marginally as losses in automakers like Toyota and Honda offset gains in tech stocks. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 and South Korea’s Kospi posted solid gains, while Taiwan’s Taiex and India’s Sensex advanced modestly. On Wall Street, US stock indices edged lower as traders digested corporate earnings and growing global uncertainty. The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.4%. High-profile movers included SoFi Technologies, which surged 7.4%, and UPS, which plunged 9.2% on weaker-than-expected results. Health care giant UnitedHealth Group dropped 5.8% after disappointing earnings, while Novo Nordisk shed over 21% on lowered 2025 guidance for its Wegovy weight-loss drug. Federal Reserve Maintains Rates Amid Inflation and Tariff Uncertainty The Federal Reserve began its much-anticipated policy meeting with expectations firmly anchored in a decision to keep interest rates steady. Despite renewed pressure from President Trump for cuts to stimulate the economy, policymakers are expected to wait for further data on inflation and the economic impact of tariffs. Treasury yields slipped as investors adopted a risk-off approach. A report showing a decline in US job openings added to concerns over a potential economic slowdown, though consumer confidence data remained relatively stable. Traders now await official signals from the Fed’s statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments. Euro Rally Stalls After EU-US Tariff Deal The euro, once one of the strongest-performing currencies of 2025, has started to lose momentum. After hitting a four-year high of $1.1830, it fell sharply this week following the EU's decision to impose a 15% tariff on US imports. Though less severe than President Trump’s initial threats, the new rate is a sharp increase from pre-2025 levels. Currently trading around $1.1554, the euro is on track for its first monthly loss this year, down nearly 2% in July. Analysts note that the rally had been driven by optimism over German fiscal stimulus and weakness in the US dollar. However, with a US-EU trade agreement reducing uncertainty and strong US earnings supporting the greenback, that trend has reversed. Bruno Schneller of Erlen Capital Management commented that the euro is facing a “reality check,” as speculative positions near record highs are now being unwound. CFTC data shows euro bullish bets have reached $18.4 billion, the highest since December 2023. Commodities: Copper and Oil Slide as China Stimulus Lacks Detail Commodities markets were also under pressure. Copper prices dropped 0.2% to $9,782 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, while iron ore declined by 0.9% in Singapore. Early gains were erased after a policy update from China’s Politburo failed to provide clear fiscal or monetary stimulus plans, disappointing traders who had anticipated stronger support. The global copper market has also been rattled by the Trump administration’s plan to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1. With few details available, investors are bracing for widespread disruptions. Chile, the largest supplier of copper to the US, has requested exemptions, but US trade officials signalled that the measures would apply globally. Meanwhile, oil prices remained relatively flat. US crude hovered at $69.20 per barrel, while Brent crude edged up to $71.70. The broader energy market remains range-bound as traders await further developments in both monetary policy and international trade. Economic Data and Earnings to Drive Market Direction With the Fed expected to keep rates on hold, attention is shifting to upcoming economic reports and earnings data. The US is scheduled to release the latest Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, along with inflation readings that will offer deeper insight into the strength of the recovery. In Europe, economic growth figures will help shape expectations for further fiscal intervention. Investors are also awaiting any update on whether the US and China will officially extend their tariff truce, a development that could ease trade tensions and support global risk sentiment. What Traders Should Watch This Week As market volatility picks up, traders should monitor several key themes: The Federal Reserve’s rate decision and Powell’s press conference US jobs and inflation data Confirmation or collapse of the US-China tariff pause More Q2 earnings reports from major US corporations Reactions to the EU-US trade agreement Signals of additional stimulus from China With global macro conditions in flux and central bank policies on pause, the coming days could define the next phase of market momentum in stocks, commodities, and currencies. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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USD/CAD Eyes Resistance Amid Mixed Fundamentals USD/CAD, the currency pair representing the US Dollar against the Canadian Dollar, remains heavily influenced by economic indicators and central bank guidance from both nations. Currently, market focus is split between US labor and inflation data and Canada’s resource-driven fundamentals. From the US side, key updates include the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and the advance GDP release, both offering early insight into employment trends and overall economic health. Meanwhile, attention also centers on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and accompanying FOMC statement and press conference, where even subtle shifts in tone can drive volatility. In Canada, the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy stance, as communicated through its rate statement and governor's press conference, is equally impactful. With the loonie’s sensitivity to energy prices, crude oil inventory data from both the API and EIA adds another layer of influence. Lower-than-expected inventories can boost oil prices, often lending support to CAD. As traders digest these mixed signals—stronger US growth versus commodity and rate-driven Canadian dynamics—USD/CAD is poised for responsive moves ahead of the next central bank updates in September. Image Chart Notes: • Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00) • Candles’ time-frame is 4h. Analyzing the USD/CAD 4-hour chart, the price is currently testing a significant resistance zone between 1.3775 and 1.3797, a level that has acted as a strong barrier during previous attempts in mid-June and early July. Price is approaching this level along a steep ascending trendline, indicating strong short-term bullish momentum. However, technical indicators suggest a potential stall. The RSI is at 69.67—just below the overbought threshold—signaling limited upside room and increased likelihood of a pullback. Furthermore, the MACD, while still in positive territory, shows signs of convergence, with the MACD line nearing the signal line, hinting at weakening momentum. These factors combined suggest that a breakout above this resistance may face difficulty without a strong fundamental catalyst. Traders should be cautious and watch for bearish signals near this zone, as a rejection could lead to a short-term correction toward trendline or support levels below 1.3700. • DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes. Capitalcore

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