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Date: 23rd April 2026. Iran Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz Drives Oil Surge and Risk-Off Markets The double blockade and the Middle East crisis have escalated in the past 12 hours as Iran attacks three ships. Earlier this week, the US seized ships bound for Iranian ports. Tehran now looks eager to match the US actions like for like. This is the first time in recent weeks that Iran has attacked commercial shipping, but the Iranian administration has gone a step further, seizing two ships and taking them to an Iranian port. Analysts and traders are viewing Iran’s decision as a clear escalation and a risk to any potential negotiations. Most political experts advise that the US will now look at an economic war against Iran as the conflict was unable to achieve its objectives. So far on Thursday, the developments are creating a ‘risk-off’ environment. Crude Oil - Iran Escalates In the Strait Of Hormuz The US is yet to comment and confirm whether the information from Iranian state TV is correct. Nonetheless, Iranian TV reported that Iranian authorities seized two cargo ships and took them to Iranian ports without harming their crews. It also reported that they fired on a third ship, without providing further details. The incidents are widely seen as retaliatory, following recent US seizures of Iranian vessels. They also point to a rapidly deteriorating security environment in one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes. HFM - Crude Oil 15-Minutes Chart Due to the developments, the price rose from $89.90 yesterday to a high of $99.55 early this morning. As the news was made public this morning, the price rose almost 5.00% over a period of 30 minutes. Technical analysis is now providing a bullish bias, with the price trading clearly above the 200-bar moving average on smaller timeframes. A concern for investors is that the US is now attempting to pressure Iran to the negotiation table by economic means. The US blockade is not allowing Iranian oil to be exported via Iranian ports, most importantly from Kharg Island. However, if oil does not flow through the pipes, experts advise the whole production and exporting mechanism can be permanently damaged. If Iran reaches this phase, it will be able to export the same level of oil for a prolonged period. This would further pressure oil supplies and keep Crude Oil prices elevated. According to experts, if the Strait remains closed past 15 May, the price can remain above $100 for many weeks. US Dollar - US Dollar Rises As Investors Take A ‘Risk-Off’ Sentiment The US Dollar increases and the stock market declines as a result of the developments in the Strait of Hormuz. The decline among stocks is less certain as the category is clearly in an upward trend and will be strongly influenced by quarterly earnings reports in the upcoming two weeks. However, the upward price action in the Dollar is more directly related to the developments without other external factors. The US Dollar is the best-performing currency of the day followed by the Canadian Dollar. The Canadian Dollar tends to rise with higher oil prices. In addition to the above, Kevin Warsh told the Senate Banking Committee he made no promises to the Republican administration on rate cuts, aiming to show independence from the White House. However, Trump advised he would be disappointed if borrowing costs do not fall after the Fed leadership change. Key Takeaway Points: Iran seized two ships and attacked a third, escalating tensions after recent US moves to seize Iranian ships. Markets turned risk-off; crude oil surged nearly 5% intraday amid supply disruption fears. Strait of Hormuz instability threatens global oil flows, with prices potentially staying above $100. The US Dollar strengthened as investors sought safety; equities showed mixed reactions despite a broader upward trend. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. 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Date: 22nd April 2026. Middle East De-escalation Pressures the Dollar Despite Warsh Hearing. The US Dollar is seeing notable price swings and heightened volatility. Investors are closely watching Kevin Warsh’s hearing, while also reacting to fresh developments in the Middle East. Yesterday, the Dollar was the best performing currency largely due to Warsh reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s independence and tackling inflation. However, the currency is correcting back downwards this morning as the market prices in de-escalation within the Middle East. The best-performing currencies during this morning’s Asian session are the New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar. This is due to their recent high inflation reports, which are most likely going to prompt a hawkish monetary policy. Kevin Warsh Hearing Supporting the US Dollar? Meanwhile, US investors are assessing the Senate Banking Committee hearing of Kevin Warsh, a candidate for Chair of the US Federal Reserve. Known for supporting balance sheet reduction, Warsh is seen by analysts as someone who could reduce market liquidity, lift government bond yields, and strengthen the US Dollar. Bond yields rose on Tuesday, which is positive for the Dollar, but are retracing this morning so far. His remarks echoed themes from earlier this week, including a ‘regime change’ in monetary policy and a new inflation framework. Markets saw this as a possible signal of tighter conditions. A day earlier, Donald Trump told CNBC he would be disappointed if Warsh did not cut borrowing costs immediately. That would follow Senate confirmation. However, Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf said that would be the wrong move. He wants more clarity on a possible end to the Iran conflict. He warned a prolonged escalation could hurt household budgets and fuel inflation. Most economists say policy will likely remain uncertain until Kevin Warsh holds his first press conference as Fed Chair. Currently, some senators are delaying approval until the government drops charges against current Chair Jerome Powell over the building refurbishments. While some of the factors above are supportive for the US Dollar, easing tensions in the Middle East are weighing on the currency. This is because lower geopolitical risk tends to reduce demand for safe-haven assets. GBPUSD - The Pound Continues to Perform Despite Economic & Political Risks The price of the GBPUSD is moving in favour of the British Pound despite political and economic risks to the UK. The exchange rate has dipped in the past few days but continues to show little bearish strength and momentum. As a result, the GBPUSD continues to maintain a bullish bias with many indicators. However, if the US Dollar Index gains momentum, the exchange rate may again fall, similar to February and March. HFM - GBPUSD 1-Hour Chart UK macroeconomic expectations have worsened this year amid rising geopolitical risks and weaker business activity. Analysts at Ernst & Young and Deloitte point to the prolonged US–Iran conflict as a key factor, as it is disrupting global supply chains and pushing energy costs higher. EY expects the UK economy to stagnate in the second and third quarters, with annual growth slowing from 1.4% in 2025 to 0.7% this year. Analysts expect the labour market to weaken, with unemployment projected to reach 5.8% by mid-2027, implying around 250,000 job losses. Inflation may approach 4.0% in the second half of the year, well above the Bank of England’s 2.0% target. This morning, the UK’s inflation rate was confirmed to have risen from 3.0% to 3.3% as expected. Investors will now turn their attention to the UK’s Services and Manufacturing PMI reports tomorrow morning. New Zealand Dollar - Can the NZD Break Above the 0.59215 Resistance Level? The main factor supporting NZD/USD was stronger Q1 inflation data. Headline CPI rose from 0.6% to 0.9% (QoQ), above the 0.8% forecast. The details were more concerning, with non-tradable inflation, a key measure of domestic price pressure, rising 1.1% versus the RBNZ’s 0.9% estimate, and reaching 3.5% annually. Tradable inflation was lower at 0.7% quarterly and 2.5% yearly. These figures also do not yet fully reflect the impact of disruptions linked to the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz supply risks. As a result, investors have raised expectations for tighter monetary policy, with a rate hike now priced in by July and up to three 25-basis-point increases expected by year-end. HFM - NZDUSD 1-Hour Chart The New Zealand Dollar is one of the best-performing currencies of April and is trading above key Moving Averages. However, the resistance level at 0.59215 is a real concern for technical analysts. The asset has fallen at this resistance level on five occasions over the past week alone. Key Takeaways: Warsh’s hearing initially supported the US Dollar, but easing Middle East tensions are now pressuring it lower. Markets view Warsh’s stance on Fed independence, inflation, and balance sheet reduction as supportive of the Dollar. GBP/USD is still holding a bullish tone. This is despite weakening UK growth expectations, rising inflation, and concerns over the labour market. The New Zealand Dollar is gaining support from inflation. Stronger CPI data has boosted expectations of RBNZ rate hikes, though 0.59215 remains a key resistance level for NZD/USD. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. 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USDJPY Price Action Signals More Weakness USD/JPY, the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen, is one of the most important major forex pairs and is often nicknamed the Gopher. In today’s USD/JPY fundamental analysis, Japan’s Trade Statistics may be the more direct catalyst, as a stronger trade balance could support the yen and limit upside, while the US EIA crude inventories report is more likely to affect the pair indirectly through oil prices, sentiment, and broader US dollar movement. Image Chart Notes: • Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00) • Candles’ time-frame is 4h On the USD/JPY H4 chart, after hitting 160.336, price started to move lower inside a gentle bearish channel, and although it later formed a higher low, that major peak still keeps USD/JPY price action exposed to further downside. Bollinger Bands 20 suggest volatility may narrow after price touched the upper band, Stochastic 14 1 3 at 86.30 and 90.63 signals overbought conditions, and RSI 14 at 58.15 shows some recovery strength but not enough to cancel the bearish H4 structure, so while the pair stays below channel resistance and under 160.336, the technical outlook still favors bearish continuation toward lower support levels. •DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes. Capitalcore

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