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Date: 1st April 2026. What Will Determine If Gold Rebounds? On the last day of the month, Gold witnesses its strongest gains within the month of March. The commodity rose in value by 3.45% and also continues to rise further during this morning’s Asian session. If the price of Gold continues to rise today, the asset will complete its fourth day of consecutive increases. The reason for Gold’s bullish price movement is largely due to three factors. The Israeli Prime Minister on Tuesday, told journalists that half of the country’s aims have been achieved, meaning that the conflict could last for some time. This is driving the price of Gold higher. However, another key development triggering demand for Gold is bond yields and interest rates. How Are Interest Rates & Bonds Supporting A Gold Rebound? One reason investors preferred the US Dollar over Gold as a safe-haven asset was bonds. Rising bond yields made the Dollar more attractive, especially as investors viewed gold as extremely expensive. Yields climbed to their highest level in eight months. However, bond yields have fallen for four consecutive days and, at the same time analysts are expecting inflation to increase. With bond yields falling and inflation increasing, the market is likely to witness a negative real bond yield. As a result, the US Dollar becomes less attractive as a hedge against inflation and investors turn to Gold. Gold has been used as a hedge against inflation on multiple occasions since the 1970s and most recently during the 2022 inflation crisis. The US inflation data, due on April 10th, will be key for gold. It may confirm whether bond yields will turn negative. Currently, analysts expect inflation to rise from 2.4% to 4.0%. However, some Wall Street reports suggest it could reach 4.2%. Nevertheless, a word of caution for market participants. Market volatility and trends will also largely depend on the Federal Reserve. Generally, higher inflation is traditionally known to support Gold, however, if the Federal Reserve is quick to react and become significantly hawkish, the Dollar becomes more attractive and bond yields will rise. As a result, Gold may come under pressure. Gold - Technical Analysis HFM - XAUUSD 4-Hour Chart Gold prices had fallen 22% throughout the crisis, and the rebound of the past few days measured a 50% correction. For this reason, based on price action theories, the asset is still at risk of this price movement being a strong retracement before declining again. However, this will fade if the price rises to $4,800, indicating a potential bullish trend in the long term. In the short term, the price of Gold is trading above the most important moving averages and above the day’s VWAP. The asset is also forming clear higher highs and lows while the US Dollar is the day’s worst-performing currency. For this reason, momentum analysis is pointing towards Gold continuing to rise in value. The US Dollar A key element for Gold will be the US Dollar, real bond yields and the Federal Reserve’s reaction. However, for the US Dollar in the short term investors will be monitoring today’s ADP NFP Change, Retail Sales figure and ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index. If these figures come in above expectations, the US Dollar could rise in value. This is because the Fed may feel more confident about raising interest rates in the short term to tackle inflation. Economists are advising that the possibility of the Federal Reserve slightly raising rates is feasible, but is only likely to be possible for a short period. Investors remain focused on the latest remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Speaking at Harvard University, Powell said inflation expectations remain stable despite rising energy prices. As a result, the Fed does not currently plan to adjust borrowing costs, as he believes interest rate changes affect the economy with a delay. In his view, tightening monetary policy now would do little to offset the inflationary effects of the US-Iran confrontation. However, some experts believe Powell’s optimism may be overstated, particularly as he is expected to step down in May. Over the past month, US gasoline prices have climbed 30% to $4.0 per gallon, while diesel has risen 40.0% to $5.0 per gallon, marking the highest levels seen since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. Nonetheless, key releases this week for the US Dollar will be today’s three releases as well as Friday’s NFP employment data. Key Takeaways: Gold surged 3.45% at month-end and is on track for a fourth consecutive day of gains. Falling bond yields and rising inflation expectations are driving demand, increasing the likelihood of negative real yields. The April 10 US CPI release is critical, with forecasts pointing to a sharp rise towards 4.0%-4.2%. Despite bullish momentum, a more hawkish Federal Reserve could strengthen the US Dollar and pressure gold prices. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Bitcoin USD Technical Analysis with Fundamental Drivers The BTC/USD (Bitcoin vs US Dollar) pair—commonly known as Bitcoin or digital gold—tracks the value of the leading cryptocurrency against the US Dollar, making it a key instrument for daily chart technical and fundamental analysis and price action trading. From a BTC/USD fundamental analysis perspective, today’s focus is on major US releases such as ADP Non-Farm Employment, Retail Sales, PMI data, and speeches from FOMC members, all of which can significantly impact USD strength. Strong data and hawkish Fed signals could pressure BTC/USD lower due to tighter monetary conditions, while weaker data or dovish tones may support Bitcoin as risk appetite improves, making today’s macro events crucial for BTC/USD price action and volatility outlook. Image Chart Notes: • Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00) • Candles’ time-frame is 4h. From a BTC/USD H4 technical analysis standpoint, the chart is moving within a bearish channel, indicating short-term downside pressure. Given the previous range between 76260.40 and 53673.23, price may continue toward support, though past behavior suggests a potential sharp bullish rebound after breakouts. The Moving Average (9) sits below the candles, signaling short-term bullish attempts, while the RSI (14) at 51.17 shows neutral momentum. Meanwhile, Williams %R (14) at -8.56 indicates near overbought conditions, suggesting a possible pullback, keeping BTC/USD price action analysis balanced between continuation and reversal scenarios. •DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes. Capitalcore

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Date: 31st March 2026. Oil Volatility, Gold Rally, and Geopolitical Risks Dominate Sentiment. Global financial markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines as escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt energy flows and shape investor sentiment. From surging oil prices to shifting expectations around interest rates, today’s market environment is being driven by a complex mix of supply shocks, central bank signals, and risk appetite fluctuations. Oil Prices Surge Amid Supply Disruptions Crude oil markets remain at the center of attention, with Brent Crude Oil climbing above $115 per barrel before stabilizing near $113. The move comes as escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran threatens critical supply routes. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil transportation, is operating at severely reduced capacity. Estimates suggest that: Around 100 million barrels per week are currently unable to pass through the strait Monthly disruptions could reach 400 million barrels If these constraints persist for the next 6–8 weeks, analysts warn oil could spike toward $150–$200 per barrel, driven by the physical imbalance between supply and demand rather than political rhetoric. Recent developments, including drone strikes on oil tankers near Dubai and continued missile activity across the Gulf region, underscore the fragility of energy infrastructure and the growing risk premium embedded in oil prices. Gold Gains on Fed Signals and Safe-Haven Demand At the same time, Gold has extended its upward momentum, briefly jumping over 2% before stabilizing near $4,560 per ounce. The rally is being supported by two key factors: 1. Federal Reserve Signals Comments from Jerome Powell suggested that interest rates are currently in a “wait-and-see” phase, easing fears of aggressive tightening despite rising oil-driven inflation. Treasury yields declined Rate hike expectations softened The opportunity cost of holding gold decreased 2. Geopolitical Uncertainty Safe-haven demand remains strong as investors react to: Ongoing conflict in the Middle East Uncertainty over US military strategy Risks of further escalation impacting global trade routes However, despite the recent bounce, gold still faces structural pressure as markets are not fully pricing in an economic slowdown, limiting the upside unless recession risks intensify. Equity Markets Show Mixed Performance Equity markets are struggling to find direction amid conflicting signals: US futures edged higher, reflecting cautious optimism European stocks opened flat as investors digest geopolitical developments Asian markets declined sharply, led by losses in South Korea The divergence highlights the current environment where headline-driven trading dominates, with investors reacting quickly to geopolitical updates rather than macroeconomic fundamentals. Political Developments Add Complexity Recent statements from Donald Trump indicate a potential willingness to end the conflict with Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains partially closed. This suggests possible de-escalation scenarios, though risks remain elevated. Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu stated that military operations are “beyond the halfway point” in terms of objectives, but without a defined timeline, reinforcing uncertainty around the duration of the conflict. At the same time, threats of further strikes on Iranian infrastructure, including oil and desalination facilities, continue to keep markets on edge. Key Takeaways for Traders Oil remains fundamentally driven: Supply disruptions, not political commentary, are dictating price direction Gold is balancing forces: Supported by lower yields and risk aversion, but capped by stable economic expectations Markets are headline-sensitive: Short-term volatility will likely persist as geopolitical developments unfold Risk management is critical: Rapid shifts in sentiment can trigger sharp moves across commodities, currencies, and equities Market Outlook Looking ahead, traders should closely monitor: Developments around the Strait of Hormuz and global oil flows Any concrete progress in US-Iran negotiations Central bank communication, particularly from the Federal Reserve Broader risk sentiment across equity and bond markets The current environment reinforces a key principle: markets are being driven less by forecasts and more by real-time geopolitical developments and physical supply constraints. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.