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Date: 14th October 2025. Gold Breaks $4,000; Bitcoin Falls as US-China Trade Tensions Escalate. Gold Hits Fresh Record Highs Amid Haven Demand Gold continues to make fresh record highs. Trade jitters flared up again at the end of last week, as Trump threatened China with additional tariffs, which weighed on oil and boosted haven flows. Oil prices, which tried to stabilize following the cautious OPEC+ output hike, sold off again on Friday. Gold has been on a consistent upward trend since the beginning of the year, when it traded at around $2,669 per ounce. This remarkable rally has been underpinned by strong central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and a weaker US dollar, which enhances gold’s appeal for investors holding other currencies. Gold continues to make fresh record highs in this environment. The precious metal cleared the $4,000 mark last week and is trading above $4,080 per ounce. Central bank demand continues to underpin prices as investors bet on additional rate cuts, while eying geopolitical developments. US President Trump said Sunday that the Gaza war has ended, but tensions in the Middle East have not evaporated and at the same time, the war between Russia and Ukraine may be heating up as the US signals increased support. Some are expecting gold to rise as high as $5,000 in this environment. Others, however, have warned that the gold bubble is set to burst eventually, arguing that investors should be increasingly cautious and central banks should sell as much as possible. Crypto rout: Bitcoin tumbles as US-China trade jitters sap risk appetite Bitcoin fell on Tuesday, cutting short a recent rebound as markets remained largely risk-averse amid heightened concerns over a renewed trade war between the US and China. Broader crypto markets also moved in a flat-to-low range, after suffering heavy losses in recent sessions. US President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on China wiped out some $500 billion in crypto market capitalisation in a matter of days. Bitcoin was at the heart of this rout, tumbling sharply from a $126,000 record high hit last week. The world’s biggest crypto fell 1% to $113,547.0. Demand for the world’s largest crypto was largely supplanted by demand for safe havens such as gold, which hit another record high on Tuesday. While crypto markets did take some support from US officials offering conciliatory comments on China, risk appetite still remained largely off. Bitcoin rebound short-lived as US-China jitters spark crypto rout Bitcoin slumped as low as $103,800 over the weekend after Trump’s initial announcement of additional tariffs against China. While the world’s biggest crypto did recover as high as $115,000 on Monday, it cut short this rebound amid few signs of improving US-China relations. Beijing said on Tuesday that it was ready to “fight to the end” in a trade war with Washington, while also accusing the US of discriminatory practices. The latest trade tensions, which threaten to undermine an earlier framework deal between Washington and Beijing, largely stem from US ire over China introducing stricter export controls on its rare earth industry. China said on Tuesday that the controls were justified, and signaled little intent to acquiesce to US demands. While Beijing did confirm that working-level talks were ongoing with Washington, it warned against the imposition of more trade tariffs. Broader crypto price action Broader crypto prices mostly moved in a flat-to-low range, as risk appetite showed few signs of improving. Ether fell 0.4% to $4,116.56, after falling as low as $3,400 over the weekend. XRP fell 0.6% and remained pinned below $3.0. Solana and Cardano clocked some strength, rising 4.8% and 1.1% respectively. Among memecoins, Dogecoin fell 0.7%, while $TRUMP rose 2%. Beyond trade tensions, crypto markets were also grappling with increasing doubts over corporate treasury strategies, especially in Bitcoin. Metals and base metals Silver outperformed today and also hit a fresh record high, with private investment flows and haven demand keeping prices underpinned. Uncertainty is likely to add to volatility near term, especially as metals look overbought on a technical level. However, geopolitical tensions are likely to keep haven demand underpinned and put a floor under prices at least for now. Platinum and palladium also rallied today, and copper jumped nearly 5% after selling off on Friday in the wake of Trump’s China tariff threat. The President seemed to soften his stance over the weekend and signalled openness to meet with President Xi Jinping later this month, which helped to revive demand expectations. Ongoing mine disruptions in Chile and Indonesia meanwhile are keeping a lid on the supply outlook. Oil and trade tensions Meanwhile, China unveiled sweeping export controls on rare earths and related technologies, which some saw as an attempt to boost Beijing's leverage in talks with the US. The US in turn has been on a stockpiling spree. Oil prices tried to stabilize last week, after OPEC+ producers announced a smaller than anticipated output boost for next month. Short-term supply jitters added support, amid ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, and reports that the US has been helping Kiev to mount long-range strikes. US President Trump also suggested that Ukraine may get Tomahawk missiles to use against Russia. Meanwhile, the US announced further sanctions targeted at Iran's petroleum exports. The sanctions included an oil terminal in Shandong, which dealt a blow to Chinese refining giant Sinopec and is set to complicate US-China relations. On Friday, Trump threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on China imports, which rekindled tariff jitters and saw oil prices selling off in tandem with stocks. Markets stabilised as US officials seemed to open a door to a possible deal with China and the US President wrote on Truth Social: "Don't worry about China, it will all be fine!" Oil prices bounced as a result, but for now the WTI contract continues to trade slightly below USD 60 per barrel after hitting a five-month low on Friday. Prices remain above this year's low from May, but are around -19% below the levels seen a year ago. Forecasts are projecting a sizable supply overhang for next year, and short-term supply jitters may only slow but not halt the longer-term downtrend, especially as tariff uncertainty will keep a lid on demand expectations. OPEC+ outlook and market structure US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed on Monday that President Donald Trump still intends to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month, as Washington and Beijing seek to ease escalating trade tensions over tariffs and export restrictions. Market sentiment has been strained following recent developments, including China’s decision to broaden export controls on rare earth elements and Trump’s warning of potential 100% tariffs and new software export limits starting November 1. Adding to the strain, Beijing announced on Tuesday that it would impose sanctions on five US-linked subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean. Meanwhile, both the US and China are preparing to introduce additional port fees on ocean carriers transporting goods ranging from consumer products to crude oil. In energy markets, front-month US crude futures ended Monday at their narrowest premium since January 2024 over the seven-month contract. This narrowing backwardation indicates near-term supply is perceived to be ample. In its monthly report, OPEC and allies including Russia projected that the oil market's supply shortfall would shrink in 2026 as the wider OPEC+ alliance proceeds with planned output increases. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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AUD USD chart analysis with Ichimoku cloud The Australian Dollar, often referred to as the “Aussie”, represents Australia’s currency and is one of the most actively traded pairs against the U.S. Dollar (USD) in the global forex market. The AUD-USD pair reflects the balance between Australia’s export-driven, commodity-linked economy and the U.S.’s global reserve currency. Today’s focus for the AUD USD pair centers around global and domestic monetary policy updates. On the Australian side, attention is on upcoming RBA meeting minutes and NAB Business Confidence data, both key indicators of business sentiment and future rate guidance. A stronger NAB print could support the Aussie, but with the IMF meetings in Washington DC also on the agenda, global risk sentiment and commodity performance may dominate short-term direction. Meanwhile, from the U.S., multiple Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak, and any hawkish tone hinting at persistent inflationary pressure could strengthen the USD. As traders await these statements, market volatility is expected to rise, with the USD likely gaining near-term support on stronger policy rhetoric while the AUD remains under pressure due to slower domestic business growth and cautious RBA outlook. Image Chart Notes: • Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00) • Candles’ time-frame is 4h. The AUD/USD 4-hour chart shows the price moving in a bearish trend with a 23° downward slope as indicated by the trend angle tool. The AUD-USD pair is trading between the 0.236 and 0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels, where 0.236 has acted as a key support zone. After testing this level, the Aussie price experienced a corrective bounce and is now moving toward the 0.382 Fibonacci resistance, remaining below the Ichimoku Cloud. The Ichimoku baseline and Leading Span B (red line) are positioned above Leading Span A (green line), forming a bearish Kumo (red cloud) with its upper boundary flattening, signaling potential consolidation before another drop. The candlestick is currently hovering near the conversion line, showing short-term indecision, while the %R (14) indicator stands at -53.82, suggesting a neutral-to-bearish momentum, indicating possible short-term correction before continuation of the downward trend. Overall, the bearish sentiment remains dominant unless the AUD USD price breaks decisively above the descending trendline and the Ichimoku cloud resistance area. •DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes. Capitalcore

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