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Date: 31st July 2025. BOJ Hints at Rate Hike with Inflation Upgrade, But Trump Tariffs Delay Clear Signal. BOJ Moves Closer to Tightening, But Timing Still Murky The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept interest rates steady at 0.5% during its July policy meeting but raised its inflation forecasts more than expected, signalling that the era of ultra-accommodative monetary policy may be drawing to a close. However, Governor Kazuo Ueda and the policy board refrained from giving any guidance on the timing of the next hike, citing ‘high uncertainties’ stemming from new US trade tariffs and domestic political instability. Inflation Forecast Raised to 2.7%: What It Means In its quarterly economic outlook, the BOJ lifted its FY2025 inflation forecast to 2.7% from 2.2% and nudged up its projections for 2026 and 2027. The upgrades reflect ongoing price pressures, particularly from food and commodity imports. The BOJ’s upward revision of its price outlook does make it seem like a rate hike is coming closer. But Ueda reiterated that supply-side factors are driving inflation, suggesting policymakers are reluctant to respond with rate hikes unless wage growth and demand-driven inflation strengthen further. Tariffs Keep Policy Outlook Cautious A major source of uncertainty is President Trump’s new wave of tariffs, including on Japanese autos and industrial goods. While Japan reached a partial agreement with the US to reduce some levies, the BOJ is waiting to see how these measures affect exports, corporate profits, and investment. This caution was reflected in a softened tone in the BOJ’s risk assessment, shifting from ‘extremely high’ to simply ‘high’ trade-related uncertainties. ‘There have been positive developments in trade and other policies,’ the BOJ noted, but added that more data is needed to support a rate hike. Political Backdrop: Another Obstacle Japan’s domestic political scene is adding further complexity. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition suffered a significant setback in the recent upper house elections. Some members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party are now pushing for leadership changes, which could impact fiscal policy and BOJ coordination. Any rate move could become politically sensitive, especially if borrowing costs rise at a time when consumer inflation is already weighing on household budgets. Market Reaction: Yen, Bonds, and Global Spillovers The yen initially rallied following the announcement, but lost ground as Ueda failed to provide forward guidance on rates. USDJPY remains near the psychologically important 150 level. Meanwhile, Japanese government bond yields have inched higher, with the 10-year yield approaching 1%, spilling over into global bond markets. US Treasuries also saw upward pressure after Powell’s hawkish tone, tightening financial conditions worldwide. What’s Next? Eyes on December While the BOJ appears to be preparing the ground for a year-end rate hike, the central bank is signalling that it will not move prematurely. The next few months will be critical as officials monitor wage growth, trade developments, and domestic demand. It is expected that the BOJ will act by December if growth holds up and the tariff impact is manageable. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Nikkei 225 H4 chart technical breakdown The Nikkei 225 Index, often referred to as "Nikkei" or "JAP 225," is Japan’s premier stock market index, tracking the performance of 225 large, publicly-owned companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is one of the most watched indices in the Asia-Pacific region and serves as a critical benchmark for the Japanese equity market. From a fundamental perspective, the Japanese yen (JPY) is in focus today with a cluster of key economic indicators pending release, although all are scheduled for later dates in August and beyond. Market participants are pricing in expectations around Japan’s inflation-adjusted industrial output, retail sales, housing starts, and consumer sentiment—all vital indicators of domestic economic health. With the Bank of Japan maintaining a dovish stance and interest rates remaining ultra-low until at least the September 19 meeting, investor sentiment remains cautious. The anticipation of upcoming BOJ communications, especially any hint of tightening or yield curve control adjustments, may increase volatility. Until then, the Nikkei’s trajectory may remain largely influenced by risk appetite and global macro flows. Image Chart Notes: • Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00) • Candles’ time-frame is 4h. From a technical standpoint, the 4-hour chart of Nikkei 225 reflects that the market has overall kept a bullish momentum and now has entered a correction phase, currently reacting to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level around 40755. This area is acting as short-term support. The price is hovering near the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud, indicating indecision. The base line (Kijun-sen) is positioned above the price, and the conversion line (Tenkan-sen) is below the last candle, potentially hinting the end of the correction. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at 47.90, just below the neutral 50 mark, suggesting weakening momentum but no immediate oversold condition. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram shows bearish momentum with a reading of -17, and both the MACD line (-67) and Signal line (-49) remain in negative territory. If this correction deepens, the price may target the 0.382 retracement level, but a bullish reversal from the current level could see a retest of 41941 or even approach the 0.5 Fibonacci extension level at 43311. •DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes. Capitalcore

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