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Date: 16th March 2026. Strait of Hormuz Crisis Shakes Markets: Oil Surges, Stocks Stabilize as Traders Watch Supply Risks. Global financial markets entered the new trading week attempting to stabilize after a period of intense volatility driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to global energy supply routes. While geopolitical risks remain elevated, some assets began to retrace earlier moves as investors reassessed the immediate impact of the conflict and awaited further developments around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy corridors. Equity Markets Attempt to Recover Global equities showed signs of stabilization following several sessions of declines. Futures tied to the S&P 500 rose around 0.6%, suggesting the index could end a four-day losing streak. European equities were also expected to open higher, while Asian markets posted modest gains overall. The MSCI All Country World Index, a broad measure of global stocks, remained largely unchanged after three consecutive sessions of losses, highlighting the cautious tone that continues to dominate investor sentiment. Asian markets presented a mixed picture: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advanced more than 1% South Korea’s Kospi gained roughly 0.6% China’s Shanghai Composite slipped slightly Japan’s Nikkei edged lower Despite the tentative rebound, equity markets remain sensitive to headlines related to the ongoing conflict and its implications for global growth and inflation. Oil Markets Swing on Supply Disruption Fears Energy markets remain at the center of the current volatility. Brent crude briefly surged above $106 per barrel, its highest level since 2022, following reports of US strikes targeting military sites on Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub. Prices later retreated toward $104 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded just below the psychological $100 level. Oil prices have surged dramatically since the conflict began, rising more than 40% as traders priced in the risk of supply disruptions from the Middle East. The primary concern remains the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments typically pass. Shipping traffic through the strategic waterway dropped to zero over the weekend, marking the first complete halt since hostilities began on February 28. Under normal conditions: Around 77 vessels cross the strait daily The corridor carries a significant share of global energy exports from Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq. Security risks, vessel attacks and rising insurance costs have prompted many shipping companies to avoid the route entirely, amplifying fears of prolonged supply disruptions. Signs of Partial Relief for Markets Despite the tensions, several developments helped calm markets slightly. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi indicated that the strait had only been closed to vessels belonging to “enemy” nations, raising hopes that energy flows may not be fully disrupted. Additionally, two liquefied petroleum gas tankers successfully passed through the corridor en route to India, offering tentative evidence that shipping activity could resume under certain conditions. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) confirmed that oil from an unprecedented 400-million-barrel emergency stockpile release will be made available immediately to help offset supply disruptions. These measures may help ease short-term shortages, although markets remain highly sensitive to further military developments. US Dollar Weakens After Haven Rally Currency markets also reflected shifting risk sentiment. The US dollar, which had strengthened significantly during the initial escalation of the conflict, pulled back slightly as risk appetite stabilized. Bloomberg’s dollar index declined around 0.2%, with the greenback weakening against most major currencies. The euro held steady near $1.14, while the British pound traded around $1.32. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen remains under pressure despite geopolitical uncertainty, an unusual dynamic given its traditional status as a safe-haven currency. Analysts note that Japan’s heavy dependence on imported energy makes the currency particularly vulnerable to oil price shocks. With crude prices rising sharply, the yen has struggled to attract typical safe-haven flows and is trading near 160 per dollar, levels that previously triggered intervention by Japanese authorities. Bond Markets Reflect Inflation Concerns Government bond markets continue to reflect inflation worries stemming from higher energy prices. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury declined slightly to around 4.26%, snapping a five-day rise as investors sought relative safety after recent market turbulence. However, the surge in oil prices has already pushed yields higher over recent weeks, as traders worry that rising energy costs could fuel broader inflation pressures and delay potential interest rate cuts. As a result, markets now see virtually no chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming policy meeting, with policymakers likely to remain cautious while assessing the inflation impact of the conflict. Gold Hovers Near Historic Highs Precious metals markets have also been heavily influenced by the geopolitical environment. Gold fluctuated around the $5,000 per ounce level, reflecting a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and rising interest rate expectations. While the metal initially rallied as tensions escalated, its momentum has slowed as investors reassess the possibility that inflation may remain elevated, forcing central banks to maintain higher borrowing costs. Even so, gold remains up roughly 16% year-to-date, supported by ongoing geopolitical risks and concerns about potential stagflation, a combination of slower economic growth and persistent inflation. Cryptocurrency Markets Show Risk Recovery Cryptocurrency markets showed modest gains as risk sentiment improved slightly. Bitcoin rose close to 3%, trading near $73,800, while Ether climbed more than 6%, reflecting renewed speculative interest following recent market turbulence. Crypto assets have shown mixed behavior during the conflict, sometimes trading as risk assets alongside equities and at other times benefiting from broader concerns about geopolitical instability. Traders Remain Focused on the Strait of Hormuz Despite signs of stabilization across markets, uncertainty remains extremely high. The United States is reportedly working to form an international coalition to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to restore shipping flows and secure the energy corridor. However, military strikes between the US and Iran continue, and officials have warned that the conflict could last four to six weeks, leaving markets vulnerable to sudden swings. For traders, the key risks to monitor in the coming days include: Whether shipping activity resumes through the Strait of Hormuz Any escalation targeting energy infrastructure Further movements in oil prices above the $100 threshold Shifts in inflation expectations affecting central bank policy With geopolitical headlines continuing to dominate market sentiment, volatility across commodities, currencies and equities is likely to remain elevated in the near term. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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