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Iran attacks exacerbate oil crisis: S&P 500 freezes ahead of key US data Markets on Edge: Investors Brace for Sell-Off After US Strike on Iran Financial markets are on alert this Monday as investors anticipate a sharp downturn following a US military strike on Iran over the weekend. The potential for retaliation and a surge in oil prices is weighing heavily on global sentiment. Middle East Tensions Eclipse Economic Reports The escalating crisis in the Middle East has overtaken the release of US economic data as the primary focus for investors. The unexpected move by President Donald Trump to back Israel's military campaign against Iran has heightened concerns over market volatility, inflation trends, and the Federal Reserve's next steps on interest rates. S&P 500 Stalls Below Record Highs The S&P 500 index, while rebounding from early April losses, remains approximately 2.7 percent below its February peak. Despite nearing the 5 percent threshold from its previous high over the past 27 trading sessions, it has yet to reach a new record. Oil Prices Climb, Markets Hold Their Breath The growing conflict between Israel and Iran has already driven oil prices higher. Though equities have remained relatively stable so far, market participants remain wary. A sustained rise in energy prices could fuel inflation and disrupt the Fed's expected path toward interest rate cuts. Fed Holds Rates Steady, But Leaves the Door Open to Cuts During its Wednesday meeting, the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. Policymakers signaled that borrowing costs could still decline later this year, though the expected pace of rate cuts is likely to be slower than projected in March. Officials pointed to anticipated inflationary pressure, potentially fueled by President Donald Trump's tariff plans, as a reason for the revised outlook. A Data-Heavy Week Ahead for US Markets Investors are bracing for a flood of key economic reports. Monday brings updates on US business activity and home sales. Consumer confidence figures are set for release on Tuesday, followed by Friday's PCE price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. Consumers Cautious, But Sentiment May Be Rebounding US consumer confidence has dipped in recent months amid fears that tariffs could push the economy toward recession and stoke inflation. However, with inflation remaining tame and the US-China trade conflict showing signs of de-escalation, market participants are hoping for a rebound in household sentiment. European Stocks Struggle for Direction Amid Middle East Escalation European markets opened the week with mixed performance, as rising geopolitical tensions weighed on investor mood. The joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend introduced fresh uncertainty into an already fragile global landscape. Key European Indices: STOXX 600: down 0.01 percent to 536.57 points; Germany (DAX): down 0.1 percent; France (CAC 40): down 0.1 percent; Spain (IBEX): up 0.1 percent; United Kingdom (FTSE): up 0.04 percent. Deadline Nears: Trade Talks Falter as Tariff Expiry Looms With the July 8 deadline to lift US tariffs approaching, negotiations with Washington appear to have stalled. Hopes for a breakthrough are fading, adding to market uncertainty. Eurozone Growth Stalls Again in June Economic momentum across the eurozone remained stagnant for the second consecutive month. According to a report released Monday, the service sector — typically the driving force of the region's economy — showed only modest improvement. Meanwhile, manufacturing activity registered no change at all. UK Sees Modest Rebound in Business Activity In contrast, the United Kingdom posted a slight uptick in business activity for June, offering a tentative sign that the domestic economy may be stabilizing. Tech and Energy Lead Market Gains Technology stocks led the advance across European markets, climbing 0.6 percent. The energy sector followed with a 0.3 percent gain, fueled by rising oil prices amid renewed concerns over supply disruptions following strikes on Iranian facilities. Defense Sector Under Pressure Shares in the European aerospace and defense industry declined by 0.9 percent, as investor sentiment shifted in light of escalating tensions and market volatility. Corporate Headlines: Mergers, Divestitures, and Clinical Results Spectris soared by 14.9 percent after private equity firm Advent announced its intention to acquire the scientific instruments manufacturer in a deal valued at 4.4 billion pounds; Holcim gained 11.1 percent after the Swiss construction materials giant completed the spin-off of its North American division, Amrize, marking a key step in its restructuring strategy; Novo Nordisk declined by 2.8 percent following the release of full results from late-stage clinical trials of its experimental weight-loss drug, CagriSema. Despite reaching this advanced phase, the market's reaction was tepid; UCB advanced 4.4 percent after Morgan Stanley upgraded the Belgian biopharmaceutical company's rating from "equal weight" to "overweight," citing improved growth prospects

Date: 23th June 2025. The USD Benefits From Middle East Escalations UK and European Purchasing Managers’ Indexes have been made publicly available but so far are not supporting either currency. So far, the best-performing currency is the US Dollar. The US will release its own PMI report at 13:45 GMT+0. The price of the US Dollar continues to witness the impact of the hawkish Federal Reserve and new escalations within the Middle East. UK and EU PMI Data The European PMI reports were the first to be made public. Both French PMI reports fell below expectations and below the previous month’s release. Particularly investors were concerned with the Manufacturing PMI which fell from 49.8 to 47.8. The German Manufacturing PMI read as expected while the Services PMI rose to a 2-month high. A similar story for the UK, Manufacturing PMI data read higher than expectations while the Services PMI read as expected. However, the Great British Pound index still fell in value despite the report. In addition to this, the Pound also continues to remain under pressure from the Bank of England which held its interest rate at 4.25%, supported by six of the nine governing board members, in response to improved trading conditions following the agreement with the US. The Euro Index is currently trading at 0.56% lower and the Pound at 0.63%. The Bank of England Governor’s speech tomorrow afternoon, along with Thursday’s address, will play a major role in driving the British Pound. Meanwhile, the Euro will see limited releases, with the German IFO Business Climate standing out as the key focus. US Dollar And Middle East Escalation The best-performing currency of the day is the US Dollar which is currently trading 0.69% higher so far today. The first reaction of the US Dollar after the US bombing of Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan was a downward price movement, however, the market since then has significantly risen in value. The US Dollar is currently trading at its highest price on June 11th. The US Dollar strengthened as geopolitical tensions escalated after US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites triggering a lower risk appetite. However, traders will be closely monitoring the release of the US Manufacturing and Services PMI. Investors expect both PMI reports to be slightly weaker than the previous month, however, this cannot be certain until the release is made public. EURUSD - Technical Analysis EURUSD 2-Hour Chart The EURUSD is currently trading below the 75-period EMA and is currently forming a descending triangle pattern on the 2-hour chart. The descending triangle pattern is known to provide a bearish bias as it trades below the 75-period EMA. However, the price is also trading at the support level. On smaller timeframes, the price continues to trade below the 200-period SMA but is retracing higher. However, the retracement is unable to maintain momentum and is forming lower highs. Key Price Takeaways: USD leads as geopolitical tensions and Fed hawkishness boost demand; up 0.69% today. UK and EU PMIs failed to support GBP and EUR despite some stronger readings. BoE and ECB speeches/data remain key drivers; markets await US PMI release. EUR/USD shows bearish signals, trading below key EMAs in a descending triangle. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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