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Canada Employment Change April 9 2021


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What does the data mean to the market?

The total number of people employed/changed in the previous month. More employment is positive for the Cadanidan dollar and would create a buy of CAD pairs. Also, at the same time comes the unemployment rate, which has the reverse impact; a higher unemployment rate is negative for the Canadian Dollar. We need both to deviate in the same direction to create a trade. Today, it's nice to have one of these rare occurrences that don't come out with the highly anticipated NFP report. This data is Hot data, and we could get some pip's again today.


Historic Deviations and Their Outcome

March 12 2021  We saw a healthy + 184k positive deviation on the headline data Employment Change. With a positive 1% change in the Unemployment rate, which created a trade for me, I took on EURCAD to avoid any conflict from US data that came out simultaneously. I banked a few pips.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=33563;t=2021-3-12 13:30:00.0;s=EURCAD;r=M1

February 5 2021  We had NFP simultaneously; however, big devs worked slowly on EURCAD and USDCAD. We couldn't trade this simultaneously as NFP as NFP is likely to overshadow this report.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=28017;t=2021-2-5 13:30:00.0;s=EURCAD;r=M1

October 9 2020  We also had the same setup as of today and March, where this report doesn't come out with NFP; however, the forecast range was much broader. We still saw a good move on CAD pairs, although this was all over in the first minute.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=23196;t=2020-10-9 12:30:00.0;s=EURCAD;r=M1

 


My Forecasts For Today

Empl Chg - Full Time  0
Employment Change  100
Unemployment Rate  8.0

 

Today's Trade Plan

We have to look at the three main lines.

Employment Change = Shows how many jobs were gained or added in the last month.

Full Time= How many of those jobs were Full time because they have less value to the economy if they are part-time.

Unemployment = More Unemployment is bad, and less is good.


If we get a deviation from Employment change of around +75 (This is the key line of data)

Add to that a +20  Full Time

And 0.2+- from Unemployment

Then we should see some great moves.


Tradable Pairs

EURCAD


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Today we got massive deviations across the three important data lines, Employment Change, Full Time, and Unemployment, all in the same direction, which gave us a nice move and the opportunity to bank a little profit!

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=38168;t=2021-4-9 12:30:00.0;s=EURCAD;r=S30

See the video at :  https://youtu.be/eu-iMvW33q4

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