Jump to content
Exchange Blog Cryptocurrency Blog

Best Change



United States Crude Oil Inventories April 7 2021


Recommended Posts

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply which then affects the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price. There is other oil data released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond.

 

There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradeable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

 

Historic Deviations and Their Outcome

March 31 2021  Not much of a deviation on this, but it seems Gasoline won the day!

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=35420;t=2021-3-31 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

March 24 2021  Not much of a deviation, but Gasoline seems to have driven price action, and maybe API wasn't considered so much by the market this time?


See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34654;t=2021-3-24 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

March 17 2021  Mildly positive overall from both lines, and OIL went down in a bumpy way. So as expected!

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34164;t=2021-3-17 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

 


My Forecasts For Today

DOE Crude Oil Inventories  -1000
DOE Gasoline Inventories  0

 

Today's Trade Plan

If we get +-4000 from OIL and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude OIl or Brent.

 

Note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following.

 

1) Official DOE Crude Forecast = -1416

2) API Actual Crude = -2618

3) Official DOE Gasoline Forecast = -2465


4) API Actual Gasoline = +4553


Tradeable Pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Link to post
Share on other sites

We didn't see much of a deviation on this report. Oil price bounced up and backed down before finding a bearish direction for the rest of the trading session. This data did not shock the market, and I didn't take a trade. Unlike most of the data I trade, Crude Oil Inventories are weekly, so not long to wait until I get another shot at making some pips here.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=36450;t=2021-4-7 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=S10

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, Gidencenti said:

and who will say what? How did the investment turn out in the end?

Gidencenti, I also post an after trade update, so you can see how it worked out on this occasion; there wasn't a trade for me. Thanks for your interest, keep following.
James.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/9/2021 at 12:50 PM, BradBill said:

I am not living in the United States, so I do not have any knowledge on the oil business and dealings there, despite the fact I had a topic an economics related assignment regarding the crude oil in America. But having no understanding in these topics, I took the Assignment Help Services In Manchester to handle such tasks for me which are not in my mind to write on.

We should see what are the Trading Opportunities present in the Crude Oil.

Link to post
Share on other sites

What does the data mean to the market?

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.

There are 4 lines of data.

Headline CPI - Core (M/M)
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)


Historic Deviations and Their Outcome

March 10 2021  We got  a +0.1 on both core lines gave a nice 15 pip move on USDJPY ; that's a really nice move for such a small deviation, shows how hot this data is becoming.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=33216;t=2021-3-10 13:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1

February 10 2021  Check out last months 0.2 deviations, and bear in mind that I expect the same deviations to create a better reaction today!
We can see a small but gradual move over the first one minute.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=28287;t=2021-2-10 13:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1

November 12 2020  Most of last year, the same deviations were not moving the market, as conditions were very different then, but I believe the focus is back.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=24281;t=2020-11-12 13:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1

 


My Forecasts For Today

CPI - Core (M/M)  0.2
CPI - Core (Y/Y)  1.5
CPI (M/M)  0.5
CPI (Y/Y)  2.5

 

Today's Trade Plan

The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.

I’m looking for a Deviation of 0.2% or greater in either direction from the forecast of 0.2% to take a trade.

So, an actual figure of 0.0% to Sell USD or 0.4% to Buy USD.

We would need to confirm no conflict on any of the other three lines!

CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)

If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.


Tradable Pairs

USDJPY


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Link to post
Share on other sites

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond.

 

There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

 

Historic Deviations and Their Outcome

April 7 2021  Minimal deviations didn't create the move we would need to be safe.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=36450;t=2021-4-7 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

March 31 2021  Not much of a deviation on this, but it seems Gasoline won the day!

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=35420;t=2021-3-31 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

March 24 2021  Not much of a deviation, but Gasoline seems to have driven price action, and maybe API wasn't considered so much by the market this time?

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34654;t=2021-3-24 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

 


My Forecasts For Today

DOE Crude Oil Inventories  -3000
DOE Gasoline Inventories  +2000

 

Today's Trade Plan

If we get +-4000 from OIL and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude OIl or Brent.

Note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following.

1) Official DOE Crude Forecast = -2889

2) API Actual Crude = -3600

3) Official DOE Gasoline Forecast = 0786

4) API Actual Gasoline = +5600

 

Tradable Pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Link to post
Share on other sites

What does the data mean to the market?

There are two main lines of data on this release.

Employment Change, the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month; more employment is positive for the Aussie dollar and would create a buy of AUD pairs.

Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact, a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Aussie Dollar and would create a sell of AUD pairs.


Historic Deviations and Their Outcome

March 18 2021  We got a 0.5% reduction in Unemployment Rate with complimentary 58k positive Employment Change, which gave a great move for the first minute where I banked a few pips here in the first 30 seconds, a great outcome!

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34188;t=2021-3-18 0:30:00.0;s=GBPAUD;r=S5

February 18 2021  A prime example of why both lines must deviate in the same direction. This time it conflicted between Unemployment Rate and Employment Change which didn't create a move from which I could profit. So I stayed on the sidelines.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=28577;t=2021-2-18 0:30:00.0;s=AUDNZD;r=M1

January 21 2021  No deviations on this release, and as you can see from the charts, the market didn’t move!

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=26434;t=2021-1-21 0:30:00.0;s=AUDNZD;r=M1

 


My Forecasts For Today

Empl Chg - Full Time  0
Employment Change  35
Unemployment Rate  5.7

 

Today's Trade Plan

The focus today will be on the Unemployment Rate, this is the key metric that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is watching and could affect future monetary policy decisions (Interest rates).

If we get a 0.4% deviation from the forecast Unemployment Rate in either direction with no conflict from Employment Change, then we should see some good moves on AUD pairs.

If both lines deviate harmoniously, we should see a sustained move and rack up a fair amount of pips along the way.

 

Tradable Pairs

AUDJPY
AUDNZD
AUDUSD
EURAUD
GBPAUD


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Link to post
Share on other sites

What does the data mean to the market?

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on where to set the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the TRY.


Historic Deviations and Their Outcome

March 18 2021  +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34208;t=2021-3-18 11:0:00.0;s=USDTRY;r=S10

December 24 2020  +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=25738;t=2020-12-24 11:0:00.0;s=EURTRY;r=M1

October 22 2020  -1.75 negative deviation from the forecast, which created a great move! With over 900 pips in the first minute.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=23557;t=2020-10-22 11:0:00.0;s=EURTRY;r=M1

 


I Will Use Forecasts Of:

Benchmark Rate  19

 

Today's Trade Plan

25 forecasts today. This is broken down here:-

23 forecast for the rate to stay at 19%
1 forecast for a cut to 18.5%
1 forecast for a cut to 17%

Last time there was an unexpected hike in rates, President Erdogan sacked the central bank governor. Today is the first policy announcement from the new governor Sahap Kavcioglu, who's under pressure to cut rates. So far, he has signalled he won't cut yet but let's see!

Realistically the only feasible outcome from today is a possible cut. So if we get a deviation of 1.0 or more, we can expect a continued and prolonged weakening in TRY pairs.

 

Tradable Pairs

EURTRY
USDTRY


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Link to post
Share on other sites

We saw slight deviations from both Oil and Gasoline but not enough to make a trade today; however, it still gave a good move! It just shows how profitable this trade can be if we get the correct deviations from the forecast.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=38793;t=2021-4-14 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=S10

See the video at :  https://youtu.be/VHTgk09Svw8

Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey
How you all feeling about this weeks trading?
Last week's diary was pretty scarce, and I set up only for four trades where only one trade gave us a deviation from the forecast worth taking a risk on. Unfortunately, this one of the rare occurrences which resulted in a slight loss; losses will happen. It's part of the game. A good reminder to do your analysis, Always work out if the potential reward is worth the risk. Remember, this is real money. This loss was minimal, and I'm in profit for the month with two more weeks to go. The diary is pretty light this week too, it isn't necessarily about the number of trades you take. If the markets give us some surprises, we only need one or two. My diary changes minute by minute (tick by tick) just like the markets; however, currently, this is what I'm setting up for this week.

20 April 2021 23:45 New Zealand CPI (Q/Q)
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=NZ;nn=CPI (QoQ)

21 April 2021 13:30 Canada CPI (M/M)
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=CA;nn=Core CPI (MoM)

21 April 2021 15:00 Canada Overnight Rate
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=CA;nn=BoC Rate Statement

21 April 2021 15:30 Crude Oil Inventories
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories

23 April 2021 18:30 German Composite PMI
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories

I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.
 Please feel free to ask questions.

Good luck this week.
James Thatcher

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...