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Last week, I didn't have anything near a deviation, and no pips banked. I stood back and watched NZD CPI as I wasn't confident about how it would react; I'll revisit this next month. Fridays German Composite PMI became overshadowed by current Covid-19 news, and therefore I decided to sit on the sidelines and save my equity.

The most exciting news I saw last week was from the Bank of Canada regarding the forecast of an interest rate hike now looking to hit in 2022 and not 2023 as previously forecast, making Canadian data much hotter than before. This week's diary is pretty sparing again, but remember, it's not about the number of trades. Still, the quality and one or two decent deviations from the forecast is all that's required to keep making the month a profitable one.

 

Here's is what I am currently looking to trade this week.

 

27/04/2021 08:30:00    SEK    SWE Interest rate

28/04/2021 02:30:00    AUD CPI q/q

28/04/2021 15:30:00    USD Crude Oil Inventories

30/04/2021 13:30:00    CAD GDP m/m

 

I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my trade plans.

 

Please feel free to ask questions. Good luck this week.

James Thatcher

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What does the data mean to the market?

The Sveriges Riksbank Executive Board's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the SEK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


Historic deviations and their outcome

December 19 2019  Spike but retrace due to not being a total surprise on this occasion.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=13626;t=2019-12-19 8:30:00.0;s=USDSEK;r=S5

December 20 2018  Great move on SEK pairs, as we would like to see today.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=2446;t=2018-12-20 8:30:00.0;s=USDSEK;r=S30

 


I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Decision  0
SE Rates Forecast Q1  0
SE Rates Forecast Q2  0
SE Rates Forecast Q3  0
SE Rates Forecast Q4  0
SE Rates Forecast Q5  0
SE Rates Forecast Q6  0
SE Rates Forecast Q7  0

 

Today's trade plan

Today we don't expect any move from the Interest rate. But we may get some activity from the rate path. Previously the path was flat, with all lines showing 0. However, today, if any of the lines show a positive or negative deviation and don't conflict with each other. Then we can look to take a trade in the direction of the deviation.

We also get Quantitative Easing (QE) at the same time. The problem we see with this event is SEK IR path could be up or down. (a cut by the end of 2021 and 10% to a hike by 2024) BUT the QE may be counter-act to the longer-term path. So, we may get a positive path, but short term QE increase or vice versa effectively a conflict.

If all deviations align, we could see a prolonged move.


Tradable pairs

EURSEK
USDSEK


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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What does the data mean to the market?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The impact on the currency may go both ways. A rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency. On the other hand, during the recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and a fall in local currency.

The RBA has a dual mandate of reduced unemployment and achieving higher inflation, So we hope a surprise increase in the CPI figures could fuel a new debate for the RBA on when it would begin tapering.


Historic deviations and their outcome

January 27 2021  Headline Q/Q and Y/Y gave +0.2. Trimmed Mean was flat, though so not ideal. The move was respectable, lasting a good 30 seconds!

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=28145;t=2021-1-27 0:30:00.0;s=AUDUSD;r=S10

July 29 2020  Trimmed mean gave a -0.2 dev but conflicted with a positive +0.1 from Headline. Nevertheless, Trimmed Mean won the day and blew away the conflict.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=20676;t=2020-7-29 1:30:00.0;s=AUDUSD;r=S10

 


I will use forecasts of:

CPI - Trimmed Mean (Q/Q)  0.9
CPI - Trimmed Mean (Y/Y)  1.4
CPI (Q/Q)  0.5
CPI (Y/Y)  1.2

 

Today's trade plan

We need the Trimmed Mean QQ and/or YY to deviate by +-0.3 with no conflicts from the Headline QQ and YY. If this happens, we should see a prolonged move that we can benefit from. Any AUD pair will move from this data.


Tradable pairs

AUDJPY
AUDUSD
EURAUD
GBPAUD


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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There were no changes to the forecast interest rates; they will remain at 0% for the foreseeable future, there was no conflicting additional quantitative easing. Price actions were very dull; however, these trades can make a small fortune if a surprise hits the market, and that's why I set up for these interest rates.


See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=43349;t=2021-4-27 7:30:00.0;s=USDSEK;r=S2

 

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What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

 

Historic deviations and their outcome

April 21 2021  Oil deviation wasn't even half of what I set up for no trade for me, take a look at the chart though, the price moved in the right direction of the news and immediately reversed and went the wrong way. A reminder that this needs a sizeable deviation from the forecast.  

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=41182;t=2021-4-21 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

April 14 2021  Nice move! But it didn't hit a trigger for me.  

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=38793;t=2021-4-14 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

April 7 2021  Minimal deviations didn't create the move I would need to be safe.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=36450;t=2021-4-7 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

 


I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories  +2000
DOE Gasoline Inventories  -500

 

Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following.
1) Official DOE Crude Forecast = 0659
2) API Actual Crude = +4300
3) Official DOE Gasoline Forecast = +0508
4) API Actual Gasoline = -1300

 

Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Today gave a deviation of -0.2% Trimmed Mean Q/Q  -0.1% Trimmed Mean Y/Y with complimentary deviation on both the headline (Y/Y and Q/Q) of -0.3%. Everything lined up nicely.

 

For those who are watching my plans closely, the deviation differs from my trade plan on this occasion.  I set my software to look at all four lines and allowed it to quantify if the overall actual deviation from forecast on all four lines was enough to move the price significantly. If I was restricted to auto-clicking from one data line, then I would have missed this opportunity.

 

I was happy with this outcome. That's two big wins and one slight loss this month.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=43386;t=2021-4-28 1:30:00.0;s=EURAUD;r=S5

See the video at :  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7shheJvzTI

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Last week I set up only for three trades, and one trade gave us a deviation from the forecast, which my software fired on.
Check out the video from this trade here


It was a great trade, perfect price action, and an excellent example of what I do well. Getting the right set of results and seeing price action like this makes for good profits.
You can see the price action on the charts here also:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=43386;t=2021-4-28%201:30:00.0;s=EURAUD;r=S5

Remember that it's not about the number of trades taken, but the right trades, which requires a lot of patience. April overall was quiet for me but resulted in three trades taken with a 2:1 win/losses ratio making another profitable month.

Those followers closely watching will notice I didn't put out a plan for Canadian GDP on Friday. Canadian data is still hit and miss but will become more focused on moving through the year. The BoC said last week that the first-rate raises might come in 2022, whereas previously, it was 2023. That should add some spice to Canadian data soon. I didn't set up for GDP as this data doesn't have historical success. I would need reasonable deviations and an active BoC before Canadian GDP will be tradable.
My diary changes minute by minute (tick by tick) just like the markets; however, currently, this is what I'm setting up for this week. I'm looking forward to New Zealand Unemployment data tomorrow and Canadian employment on Friday, Also US ADP Non-Farm Employment data as US employment data is warming up.

04/05/2021 23:45:00 EURNZD Unemployment Rate
05/05/2021 13:15:00 USDJPY ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
05/05/2021 15:30:00 USDOIL Crude Oil Inventories
06/05/2021 09:00:00 USDNOK NOK Rate Decision
06/05/2021 12:00:00 USDTRY Turkish Rate Decision
07/05/2021 13:30:00 EURCAD Employment Change

I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my trade plans.
Please feel free to ask questions.

Good luck this week.
James Thatcher

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What does the data mean to the market?

The Unemployment Rate released by Statistics New Zealand is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labour force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the New Zealand labour market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the New Zealand economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

There are two main data lines from this report Unemployment Rate and Employment Change; both must deviate in the same direction to take a trade.


Historic deviations and their outcome

February 2 2021  A positive deviation of -0.7 from the headline Unemployment Rate with a complementary positive deviation of +1.4k on the secondary line Employment Change which gave a slow move. This is what I love to see.   

I saw some movement before the delivery of the news which is always a concern and often a sign that the news is out early but I held my nerve this time and it paid off.  

Overall the price action was excellent.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=26836;t=2021-2-2 21:45:00.0;s=EURNZD;r=S5

 


I will use forecasts of:

Employment Change (Q/Q)  0.3
Unemployment Rate  4.9

 

Today's trade plan

If I get either a positive or negative deviation of 0.4  from the headline Unemployment Rate without a conflict from the secondary line of Employment Change, then I would expect a good initial move followed by some continuation after the initial spike.

Please note that the standard deviation on today's forecast range is significantly smaller than the last quarterly release, so I would expect the data to cause a better market reaction this time.

New Zealand is the first country to emerge from Covid lock downs and hopefully, news events will continue to work. Unfortunately, the RBNZ is currently neutral regarding its stance on which way interest rates might go in the future. Which doesn't help to achieve those large rapid moves I used to see back before Covid came around.


Tradable pairs

EURNZD
GBPNZD
NZDJPY
NZDUSD


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

 

Historic deviations and their outcome

April 28 2021  Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me; however, I saw a healthy 30 pip move in the direction of the news. Oil was already in an upwards trend which continued pre and post news.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=43410;t=2021-4-28 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

April 21 2021  Oil deviation wasn't even half of what I set up for no trade for me, take a look at the chart though, the price moved in the right direction of the news and immediately reversed and went the wrong way. A reminder that this needs a sizeable deviation from the forecast.  

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=41182;t=2021-4-21 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

April 14 2021  Nice move! But it didn't hit a trigger for me.  

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=38793;t=2021-4-14 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

 


I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories  -3000
DOE Gasoline Inventories  -2000

 

Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

1) DOE Crude Forecast = +850
2) API Actual Crude = -7700
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0652
4) API Actual Gasoline = -5300

 

Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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What does the data mean to the market?

 

The Norges Bank decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

 

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NOK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


 

Historic deviations and their outcome

 

May 7 2020

A further cut of 0.25% leaving interest rates at an unprecedented 0.00% 


 

March 20 2020  

A further emergency cut of 0.75%  to the interest rate, Leaving interest rates at 0.25% 

 

See Chart here:

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/27738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI3NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0yMCUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ.

 

March 13 2020

An emergency cut of 0.50% to 1.0% interest rate due to the global pandemic unfolding and the expected significant impact on the economy. This the first cut to interest rates since 2016 

 

The world started to go into a meltdown as the realisation of a global pandemic began to unfold. There is no surprise the reaction to this was so poor, not even a blip on the charts.

 

Due to the unprecedented times, this is the first in a series of emergency cuts, which resulted in minimal price action. Usually, we would see hundreds of pips if a cut of this nature happened in normal times. A reminder of the impact Covid had in 2020, which I'm glad to say is now behind us, and I'll be watching these announcements now and looking for a normal reaction to the data as it's released. 

 

See Chart Here 

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/16296/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2Mjk2O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xMyUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ..

 

I will use forecasts of:

 

Interest Rate Decision  0.0

 

Today's trade plan

 

I will set up for any deviation on this trade, although I expect a no-trade as 100% of economists predict no chance of a change in today's rate. However, if a surprise did happen, I would be devastated I wasn't ready.

 

Tradable pairs

EURNOK

USDNOK

 

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

 

James Thatcher


 

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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We saw both lines of data deviate in the same direction, but the headline only gave a -0.2 deviation which wasn't enough for me. Price action was excellent, seeing some 40 pips in the two minutes directly after the news was released. The move was staggered and slow if I had have traded, I'm sure my fill price would have made for significant profits. Good to see reactions like this.

 

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=49879;t=2021-5-4 22:45:00.0;s=EURNZD;r=S1

 

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What does the data mean to the market?

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


Historic deviations and their outcome

March 18 2021  +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

See Chart here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34208/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MjA4O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTE4JTIwMTE6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEVFJZO3I9UzEw

December 24 2020  +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute.

See Chart here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/25738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI1NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x

October 22 2020  -1.75 negative deviation from the forecast, which created a great move! With over 900 pips in the first minute.

See Chart here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/23557/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTIzNTU3O3Q9MjAyMC0xMC0yMiUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x

 


I will use forecasts of:

Benchmark Rate  19

 

Today's trade plan

24 economists all forecasts today  for the rate to stay at 19%

Last time there was an unexpected hike in rates, President Erdogan sacked the central bank governor. Today is the first policy announcement from the new governor Sahap Kavcioglu, who's under pressure to cut rates. So far, he has signalled he won't cut yet but let's see!

Realistically the only feasible outcome from today is a possible cut. So if we get a deviation of 1.0 or more, we can expect a continued and prolonged weakening in TRY pairs.

 

Tradable pairs

EURTRY
USDTRY


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=49925;t=2021-5-5 14:30:00.0;s=;r=S1

 

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As expected, there was no change today. Even though the expectation was for no change, should the unexpected happen, missing it would be devastating as we would likely see some fireworks on the price action. I will continue to set up interest rates for this reason. When this scenario happened before, I was happy I had set up.

 

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What does the data mean to the market?

The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buy on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.
With UR a lower number is good for the US and vice versa. Whereas AE a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.


Historic deviations and their outcome

April 2 2021  A very large deviation to the upside, but accompanied by conflicting Average Earnings, created a whipsaw that we don't like to see. This, therefore, did not hit our triggers and for good reason!

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=35213;t=2021-4-2 12:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1

March 5 2021  +197k positive deviation with no conflicts. The move was great on USDJPY! I don't trade stocks, but for those that do, look how they reacted, which was the opposite of the USD value. Better employment numbers suggest a tightening of monetary policy, which is not good for the stock market!

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=33099;t=2021-3-5 13:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1

February 5 2021  - 56k negative deviation on headline number but conflicting Unemployment and Average Earnings, However, USDJPY went in the direction of the headline number on this occasion. It wasn't a trade for me!

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=28009;t=2021-2-5 13:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1

 


I will use forecasts of:

Average Hourly Earnings (M/M)  0
Change in Non-Farm Payrolls  1000
Unemployment Rate  5.8

 

Today's trade plan

Today the forecast range is far larger than last month, so we must be aware of that. If we see 300k deviations in either direction from Non-Farm Payrolls without any conflicts from Unemployment and no significant conflict from Average Earnings, we can expect an excellent move. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.


Tradable pairs

USDJPY


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Today I saw a massive deviation of -734k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with a supporting +0.3% rise from the Unemployment Rate, and This crushed the US dollar across the board. I managed to bank some excellent profits early on the back of this data as the USD pairs continued to slide south. It was a shame that the Average Earnings conflicted largely. A conflict of +0.7 on this line would have upset the move in standard times, but not today! The first week of the month over, one big win under the belt. 

Happy Friday, and enjoy your weekend! 


James 

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=50023;t=2021-5-7%2012:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=S2

See the video at :  https://youtu.be/VcS92xPNjoU

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Last week ended on a massive high. I set up for five trades, none of which triggered until Friday's employment data. I originally scheduled to trade Canadian employment data, as this is hot. This time it came out with the highly anticipated US Non-Farm payrolls data. I decided Canadian data risked being overshadowed by the US data, so I put my money on the US data instead. What a result, we saw a massive shock to the market from NFP, with the US losing 730k more jobs than expected. Price action was fantastic, and I ended my week with a load more pips banked.

 

See the after trade video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcS92xPNjoU

Look at the price action on the charts here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50025/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwMDI1O3Q9MjAyMS0wNS0wNyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ

 

A great start to the month, putting me in an excellent position to increase my risk appetite. If the markets give us just one surprises, it's all I need to keep my income coming solely from Forex. A good reminder to choose your trades carefully. Don't take a risk unless you are sure the outcome will be successful. Most importantly, be patient and hold your nerve. It can be frustrating when you don't see any trades, but it is better to wait and see a few successful trades instead of a load of trades where most of the outcomes result in your hard-earned cash go down the drain.

This week I will pick just three trades to put my money on. Here's the list of which ones: -

 

12/05/2021 13:30:00    USA's Core CPI m/m

12/05/2021 15:30:00    USA's Crude Oil Inventories

13/05/2021 20:00:00    Mexian's  interest Rate

 

I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.

 

Please feel free to ask questions.

Good luck this week.

James Thatcher

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What does the data mean to the market?

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
There are 4 lines of data.

CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)


Historic deviations and their outcome

April 13 2021  Minor deviations created a nice spike but no continuation. Therefore it provided a minimal opportunity and no trade for me.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=38254;t=2021-4-13 12:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1

March 10 2021  The headline and secondary line Core CPI Y/Y and M/M both deviated by 0.1, giving a nice 15 pip move on USDJPY. That's an excellent move for such a slight deviation, which shows how hot this data is becoming.
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=33216;t=2021-3-10 13:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1

February 10 2021  Check out last months 0.2 deviation; bear in mind that I expect the same deviations to create a better reaction today!
We can see a small but gradual move over the first one minute with continuation two or three minutes after the initial move.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=28287;t=2021-2-10 13:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1

 


I will use forecasts of:

CPI - Core (M/M)  0.3
CPI - Core (Y/Y)  2.3
CPI (M/M)  0.2
CPI (Y/Y)  3.6

 

Today's trade plan

The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.

Today I want a Deviation of 0.2% or greater in either direction from the forecast of 0.2% to take a trade.

So, an actual figure of 0.1% to Sells on USD pairs or 0.5% to Buy USD pairs.

I will look to confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any of the other three lines!

CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)

If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.


Tradable pairs

USDJPY


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

 

Historic deviations and their outcome

May 5 2021  Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=49925;t=2021-5-5 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

April 28 2021  Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me; however, I saw a healthy 30 pip move in the direction of the news. Oil was already in an upwards trend which continued pre and post news.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=43410;t=2021-4-28 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

April 21 2021  Oil deviation wasn't even half of what I set up for no trade for me, take a look at the chart though, the price moved in the right direction of the news and immediately reversed and went the wrong way. A reminder that this needs a sizeable deviation from the forecast.   

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=41182;t=2021-4-21 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

 


I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories  -2800
DOE Gasoline Inventories  +3000

 

Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2800 (RT)
2) API Actual Crude = -2500
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0600 ( RT)
4) API Actual Gasoline = +5600

 

Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Today we saw a massive positive +0.6 deviation on the headline Core CPI M/M with a supporting positive deviation of +0.7 on the Core CPI Y/Y without conflicts on all secondary lines.

 

I got a great 29 pip move in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some nine minutes after the trade, giving plenty of opportunities to choose the best possible exit.  

 

The perfect storm, with significant deviation, big initial move and lots of continuing price action, making it virtually impossible not to make money.

It's the second week of the month, two big trades under my belt.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=50136;t=2021-5-12 12:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=S1

See the video at :  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-6qY8cAEpg

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What does the data mean to the market?

Mexico's central bank vote on where to set the countries interest rate.

Traders watch interest rate changes closely as interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the MXN (Mexican Peso), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the MXN.


Historic deviations and their outcome

November 12 2020  We saw an increase of +18 basis point (bps)  from the average forecast, which created a massive 546 pip move in the first minute following the data release, that's an average of 30 pips per basis point. Astonishing move!

 

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/24308/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI0MzA4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMS0xMiUyMDE5OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPU0x

August 15 2019  We saw a cut of -25  basis point (bps)  from the average forecast, resulting in a move of 831 pips which was a lovely move!


Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/9510/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTk1MTA7dD0yMDE5LTgtMTUlMjAxODowOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RNWE47cj1NMQ

 


I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate  4

 

Today's trade plan

I will be looking for a deviation of 0.25 in either direction from the forecast, which should result in another very tradeable move.

 

Tradable pairs

USDMXN


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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No trade for me on this data as Mexico's central bank voted unanimously to keep the interest rate unchanged at 4%. It was in line with expectation, however, should a surprise change occur, this kind of report would create a tremendous move, and I would be laughing all the way to the bank.


See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=50924;t=2021-5-13 19:0:00.0;s=USDMXN;r=S1

 

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What does the data mean to the market?

The Wage Price Index measures the change in the price businesses, and the government pay for labour, excluding bonuses. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.
A higher than expected number should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected number should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.

Historic deviations and their outcome
February 24 2021 A nice +0.3 deviation created a prolonged and significant move in AUD price action.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/29714/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTI5NzE0O3Q9MjAyMS0wMi0yNDtyPU0x

I will use forecasts of:
WPI (Q/Q) 0.5
WPI (Y/Y) 1.4

Today's trade plan
The Wage Price Index measures the change in the price businesses and the government pay for labour, excluding bonuses. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
I am looking for a 0.3 deviation in either direction from the forecast. If this happens we would expect to see a slow and tradeable move on EURAUD.

Tradable pairs
EURAUD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

 

Historic deviations and their outcome

May 12 2021  A small deviation which was also overshadowed by a cybersecurity attack on one of the US east coast's main oil pipeline which halted production. I sat on the sideline for this one and pleased I did.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50404/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwNDA0O3Q9MjAyMS01LTEyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x

May 5 2021  Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/49925/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQ5OTI1O3Q9MjAyMS01LTUlMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9TTE

April 28 2021  Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me; however, I saw a healthy 30 pip move in the direction of the news. Oil was already in an upwards trend which continued pre and post news.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/43410/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQzNDEwO3Q9MjAyMS00LTI4JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x

 


I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories  +1000
DOE Gasoline Inventories  -2000

 

Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1623
2) API Actual Crude = +620
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0886
4) API Actual Gasoline = -2800

 

Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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What does the data mean to the market?

There are two main lines of data on this release.

Employment Change, the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month; more employment is positive for the Aussie dollar and would create a buy of AUD pairs.

Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact, a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Aussie Dollar and would create a sell of AUD pairs.


Historic deviations and their outcome

March 18 2021  We got a minus -0.5% positive deviation on Unemployment Rate with complimentary +58k positive deviation on the Employment Change, which gave a great move for the first minute where I banked a few pips here in the first 30 seconds, a great outcome!

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34188/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MTg4O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTE4JTIwMDozMDowMC4wO3M9R0JQQVVEO3I9UzU

February 18 2021  A prime example of why both lines must deviate in the same direction. This time it conflicted between Unemployment Rate and Employment Change which didn't create a move from which I could profit. So I stayed on the sidelines.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28577/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4NTc3O3Q9MjAyMS0yLTE4JTIwMDozMDowMC4wO3M9QVVETlpEO3I9TTE

January 21 2021  No deviations on this release, and as you can see from the charts, the market didn’t move!

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/26434/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI2NDM0O3Q9MjAyMS0xLTIxJTIwMDozMDowMC4wO3M9QVVETlpEO3I9TTE

 


I will use forecasts of:

Employment Change  20
Unemployment Rate  5.6

 

Today's trade plan

The focus today will be on the Unemployment Rate, this is the key metric that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is watching and could affect future monetary policy decisions (Interest rates).

If we get a 0.4% deviation from the forecast Unemployment Rate in either direction with no conflict from Employment Change, then we should see some good moves on AUD pairs.

If both lines deviate harmoniously, we should see a sustained move and rack up a fair amount of pips along the way.

 

Tradable pairs

AUDUSD
EURAUD


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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  • Admin changed the title to Tradewithgalaxy.com - A Revolutionary FX News Trading Software (calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com)

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