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EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro Remains At Risk of More Downsides

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EUR/USD started a fresh decline and it settled below 1.1900. EUR/JPY is showing bearish signs and upsides are likely to remain limited above 131.00.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

  • The Euro declined below the 1.1920 and 1.1900 support levels, and tested 1.1800.
  • There was a break below a short-term ascending channel with support near 1.1865 on the hourly chart.
  • EUR/JPY started a major decline after it failed to stay above the 131.50 support.
  • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 131.80 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro started a fresh decline from the 1.2000 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke the 1.1920 and 1.1900 support levels to move into a bearish zone.

The pair even settled well below 1.1900 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Recently, there was a break below a short-term ascending channel with support near 1.1865 on the hourly chart.

eurusd-chart.png

A low was formed near 1.1807 on FXOpen and the pair is now consolidating losses. An immediate resistance is near the 1.1828 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1894 high to 1.1807 low.

The first major resistance is near the 1.1850 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1894 high to 1.1807 low.

Any more gains could set the pace for a move towards the 1.1900 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.1950 level. On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.1800 level.

If there is a downside break, EUR/USD might continue to move down towards the 1.1760 support. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of the 1.1700 region. An intermediate support could be near the 1.1720 level.

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LTC and EOS – Further lows expected

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LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin reached $148 on the 4th of July which was the same level as on the prior high. From there we have seen the start of a descending move and is currently being traded at $130 and is still in a downward trajectory.

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On the hourly chart, you can see that the price broke out from the ascending support level from the 22nd of June. This is the first signal that the prior recovery ended and now we have seen the start of a descending move of the same degree as the one that lasted from the 22nd of June till the 4th of July.

July 4th high came up to the descending trendline which is the upper level of the descending triangle which formed from the 23rd of May. As the price found resistance again this validated that the previous recovery was corrective in nature in conjunction with the wave structure. This is why it is counted as the 4th corrective wave with now most likely the 5th one to the downside developing.

If this is true then we are to see a lower low compared to the one on the 22nd of June when the price of Litecoin fell to $105 area. If the descending triangle is still in play another third interaction with its support level could be seen which brings the price target to $90.

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Remain At Risk of More Downsides

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AUD/USD started a fresh decline from well above the 0.7550 level. NZD/USD also declined heavily and it even tested the 0.6920 support zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

  • The Aussie Dollar started a major decline after it failed to clear 0.7600 against the US Dollar.
  • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7435 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
  • NZD/USD also started a major decline from well above the 0.7050 level.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.6975 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

After struggling to clear the 0.7600 resistance, the Aussie Dollar started a major decline against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair broke the 0.7550 and 0.7520 support levels to move into a bearish zone.

The pair even broke the 0.7480 support and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It spiked below 0.7420 and traded as low as 0.7409 on FXOpen. It is now consolidating losses above the 0.7400 level.

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An immediate resistance is near the 0.7430 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.7533 swing high to 0.7409 low. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7435 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

The next major resistance is near the 0.7465 level and the 50 hourly SMA. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.7533 swing high to 0.7409 low is also near the 0.7470 level.

To move into a positive zone, the pair must settle above 0.7470 and the 50 hourly SMA. An initial support on the downside is near the 0.7410 level. The next major support is near the 0.7400 level. If there is a downside break below the 0.7400 support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.7350 level.

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GBP/USD Recovers Ground, USD/CAD is Facing Uphill Task
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GBP/USD started a decent recovery wave from the 1.3750 support zone. USD/CAD must clear the 1.2500 resistance zone to continue higher in the near term.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

  • The British Pound started a fresh increase from the 1.3750 support zone.
  • There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3775 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  • USD/CAD gained bullish momentum above the 1.2450 and 1.2500 resistance levels.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2480 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound formed a strong support base above the 1.3750 level against the US Dollar. As a result, the GBP/USD pair started a decent increase and it broke many hurdles near 1.3800.

gbpusd-chart-30.png

There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3775 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The pair gained pace above the 1.3820 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

The pair even spiked above the 1.3900 resistance zone. A high is formed near 1.3909 on FXOpen and the pair is now consolidating gains. An initial support on the downside is near the 1.3875 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3755 swing low to 1.3909 high.

The main support is now forming near the 1.3830 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3755 swing low to 1.3909 high.

On the upside, the pair must settle above the 1.3900 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.3940 level. Any more gains could lead the pair towards the 1.4000 barrier in the near term. An intermediate resistance could be 1.3980.

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Bitcoin Gives Back Its 2021 Gains – What Next?
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Bitcoin started the year around $30,000, and now the level acts as support. The euphoria surrounding the cryptocurrency market ended with a 50% decline in the price of Bitcoin and, in some cases, with more.

In the first quarter of the year, Tesla announced that it invested $1.5 billion into Bitcoin. Moreover, it said that it would accept payments for its vehicles in Bitcoin.

The announcement led to massive buying into the crypto space as numerous altcoins entered the bullish territory. As such, Bitcoin rose from $30,000 to over $60,000.

Investors viewed Tesla’s announcement as a sign of further adoption of the cryptocurrencies, thus the bullish run. However, a couple of months later, Tesla announced it had sold some of its Bitcoin holdings and booked a profit just before the end of the first quarter. In fact, the company made a profit on the quarter only from selling carbon credits and some of its Bitcoin holding.

Shortly after the second quarter started, Tesla, through the voice of its CEO, Elon Musk, expressed its concerns about the energy use of mining Bitcoin. As such, it stopped accepting Bitcoin as payment for Tesla cars, but it is unclear if the company sold any of its remaining Bitcoin.
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Tesla Q2 Earnings – Key for Future Price Action in Bitcoin

It is unclear if Tesla sold any of its remaining Bitcoin or not, but investors will find out pretty soon. The Q2 2021 earnings season starts now, and investors will look for clues about the company’s crypt holding. If Tesla sold more of its Bitcoin at the higher levels, the bias is that the market will test below $30,000.

From a technical perspective, the market seems to have formed a head and shoulders pattern. Even the fact that the global Bitcoin mining energy use is comparatively negligible does not matter anymore, as the market is unable to bounce.

Moreover, further investments from companies such as MicroStrategy, which announced over $1.5 billion invested in Bitcoin in the second quarter alone, were not enough to lift the price of Bitcoin.

To sum up, if there is one critical event for Bitcoin in the weeks ahead, it is the Tesla Q2 2021 earnings. Any changes in the company’s crypto portfolio may move the market.

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EUR/USD Remains At Risk, USD/CHF Eyes Larger Increase

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EUR/USD declined heavily below 1.1900 and it tested 1.1770. USD/CHF is rising and it could gain momentum if it manages to clear the 0.9200 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

  • The Euro started a fresh decline from well above the 1.1900 zone against the US Dollar.
  • There was a break below a major contracting triangle with support near 1.1855 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • USD/CHF started a fresh increase after it found support near 0.9123.
  • There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 0.9168 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro struggled to gain pace above the 1.1900 level and it started a major decline against the US Dollar. As a result, the EUR/USD pair broke the 1.1850 support zone to move into a bearish zone.

The pair even declined below the 1.1820 support zone and settled below the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was also a break below a major contracting triangle with support near 1.1855 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

eurusd-chart-1.png

A low was formed near 1.1772 on FXOpen and the pair is now consolidating losses. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.1795 level.

It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the 1.1875 high to 1.1772 low. If there is an upside break above the 1.1800 resistance zone, the price could recover steadily towards the 1.1825 resistance zone.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the 1.1875 high to 1.1772 low is also near 1.1825. Any more gains might call for a test of 1.1850.

On the downside, there is a major support forming near the 1.1770 zone. A downside break below the 1.1770 support could start another decline. The next major support could be near the 1.1710 level.

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Crypto investors are looking for reasons to be optimistic

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The market has entered a consolidation zone after the anomalous activity of May 19, with fluctuations framed by a narrowing triangle formation. Currently, no significant news reports are affecting the market, and the volumes are fading. This situation is reminiscent of the calm before the storm. What will the storm be like and when will it happen?

Optimists are looking for arguments that would signify a resuming growth. Analysts point to the outflow of bitcoins from cryptocurrency exchanges (see fig. 2), as evidenced by data (see fig. 1) collected by the Glassnode agency. Blue arrows on the chart indicate that previous outflows occurred against the backdrop of rising quotes. Therefore, the current outflow, according to analysts, could be a bullish harbinger.

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But digging deeper, we will find out that this was not always the case. A similar outflow occurred during the lull in the first half of November 2018. And in the second half, a bearish storm occurred, and BTCUSD collapsed from 6400 to 3200.

Volume analysis does give cause for concern. On July 11, there was a growth attempt (see fig. 3), but the volumes were low, which indicates a possible shortage of buyers. The next day, July 12, confirms the weakness of demand, as the price decreased on growing volumes, which can be interpreted as active selling pressure. It seems that negative sentiment prevails in the market, as participants are actively selling the coin instead of buying. If so, then the price of 33,500 is too high for BTC.

In such conditions, the fate of a psychological support level of 30k causes more and more concerns.

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BTC and XRP – Upward move likely ended

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BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin has been on the rise since the 20th of July when it fell down to $29.316 at its lowest point. From there we have seen an increase of 38.7% as it came up to $40,679 at its highest point yesterday. Today the price fell down to $36,500 area and is now moving to the upside again, but the downfall of 10% might be indicative of the completion of the prior upward movement.

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You can see that the price almost reached its most significant resistance zone at around $41,000 but failed to make interaction. The upward move from the 20th of July was impulsive in sections but the wave structure doesn’t imply a five-wave pattern. Instead, we could be looking at an ABC correction to the upside before the next downward move. The upward movement looks completed either way so now at least a retracement would be expected if not a start of a new downtrend.

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EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro Eyes More Upsides

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EUR/USD formed a support base above 1.1780 and corrected higher. EUR/JPY is also rising and it could gain pace above the 130.00 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

  • The Euro extended its decline towards the 1.1750 level before recovering higher.
  • There was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance near 1.1805 on the hourly chart.
  • EUR/JPY climbed higher nicely and it even settled above the 129.50 zone.
  • There is a major contracting triangle forming with support near 129.70 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro extended its decline below 1.1800 against the US Dollar. However, the EUR/USD pair remained well bid above the 1.1750 support zone.

The pair formed a base near 1.1760 and it recently started a decent upward move. It surpassed the 1.1800 resistance zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was also a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance near 1.1805 on the hourly chart.

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The pair traded as high as 1.1841 on FXOpen and it is now correcting gains. There was a break below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 1.1770 swing low to 1.1841 high.

The pair is now finding bids near the 1.1810 support zone. The next key support is near the 1.1805 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 1.1770 swing low to 1.1841 high.

Any more losses might call for a move towards the 1.1780 support. Any more losses might lead EUR/USD towards the 1.1750 support zone. On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.1830 level. The first major resistance is near the 1.1850 level. Any more gains could set the pace for a move towards the 1.1900 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.1920 level.

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Bitcoin May Reach ATH

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On July 27, Reuters released a rebuttal from an Amazon spokesman regarding the company’s plans to implement Bitcoin.

“Notwithstanding our interest in the space, the speculation that has ensued around our specific plans for cryptocurrencies is not true,” the source said.

On the backdrop of this new turn, the Bitcoin rate fell, but what is important, it didn’t fall lower than the July 26 level, when London’s City AM newspaper cited an unnamed insider saying Amazon had intentions to accept Bitcoin payments until the end of the year.

The fact that the official clarification did not bring the price back to the starting point suggests a bullish market sentiment.

Mike McGlone, Bloomberg’s Intelligence senior commodity strategist, is of the opinion that BTC quotes are more likely to return to the $60,000 mark than fall to $20,000.

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The price of Bitcoin fluctuates around the psychological level of $40k. The level of $36k — the base of the July 26 large-volume candlestick — is important. As long as the bulls keep the price above this level, the situation looks encouraging.

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