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USD/JPY: USD demonstrates downtrend

Current trend

USD is declining against JPY this morning session, developing a fairly strong "bearish" trend in the short term and renewing local lows since March 24. USD expects the emergence of new drivers in the market, but for now it remains under the pressure of the declining yields of Treasury bonds.

In turn, JPY is getting some support after the release of macroeconomic statistics from Japan on Monday. Japanese Exports went up by 16.1% YoY in March after the decline by 4.5% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth by 11.6% YoY only. Imports for the same period rose by 5.7% YoY, which turned out to be better than projected by 1.0%, but noticeably weaker than the dynamics of the previous month at the level of 11.8% YoY. Merchandise Trade Balance Total in March increased from JPY 215.9B to JPY 663.7B. Analysts predicted trade balance at JPY 490B.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate active decrease. The price range narrows slightly from above, but still remains spacious enough for the current level of market activity. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). The indicator is about to test the zero level for a breakdown. Stochastic, having reached the zero level, reversed into a horizontal plane, signaling the risks of oversold USD in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 109.00, 109.37, 109.84, 110.23.
Support levels: 108.54, 108.15, 107.78, 107.42.

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PayPal Holdings Inc.: wave analysis

The price may grow.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) develops, within which the wave 3 of (3) formed. Now, a downward correction has developed as the wave 4 of (3), and the development of the wave 5 of (3) has started, within which the wave iii of 5 of the lower level is forming. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 330.00–357.90. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 226.40.

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Brent Crude Oil: the instrument develops "bearish" momentum

Current trend

Brent crude oil prices are showing a slight decline, developing the "bearish" momentum formed the day before and preparing to test 66.00 for a breakdown. The instrument's positions are under pressure from the alarming situation with the incidence of coronavirus in Asia, while interruptions in the supply of Libyan oil somewhat counterbalance the situation.

The report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on oil reserves released yesterday did not have a noticeable effect on the dynamics of the instrument. For the week ending April 16, published data showed a slight increase by 0.436M barrels after a decline of 3.608M barrels in the previous period.

Today, investors are waiting for the statistics on crude oil stocks from the US EIA. Forecasts assume a further 2.86M barrels decline after a 5.889M barrels decline in the previous period.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show weak growth. The price range is slightly expanded from above, remaining spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD reversed downwards having formed a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, retreating from its highs, indicating the overbought instrument in the ultra-short term.

Current indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bearish" trend in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 67.00, 68.00, 69.00, 70.00.
Support levels: 66.00, 65.00, 64.00, 63.00.

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American Express Co.: wave analysis

The price may grow.

On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) develops, within which the wave 3 of (5) forms. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level v of 3 is developing. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 160.00–170.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 134.73.

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GBP/USD: the instrument shows uncertain growth

Current trend

GBP demonstrates weak growth in trading this morning session, recovering from the active decline the day before, which was caused by the emergence of positive macroeconomic statistics from the US, as well as the continuing long-term profit-taking by investors.

Markets were positively greeted by data on a decrease in the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending April 16 from 586K to 547K, which turned out to be much better than the negative forecast of growth to 617K. The number of continuing jobless claims fell from 3.708M to 3.674M, but the market was counting on a slightly larger decline to 3.667M.

Today, GBP is in anticipation of the publication of statistics on the UK Markit PMIs in the manufacturing and services sector for April.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is almost unchanged, but it remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD reversed downwards having formed a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic shows a somewhat more confident decline, signaling the prospects for a downtrend in the nearest future.

Existing short positions should be kept until technical indicators are clarified.

Resistance levels: 1.3900, 1.3960, 1.4000.
Support levels: 1.3822, 1.3800, 1.3750, 1.3700.

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 EUR/USD: updating February highs

Current trend

EUR is showing moderate gains against USD during today's Asian session, continuing its Friday rally and renewing local highs since February 26.

A noticeable support for EUR at the end of the last trading week was provided by the optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone. Markit Manufacturing PMI in April rose from 62.5 to 63.3 points with a forecast of a decline to 62 points. Composite PMI for the same period rose from 53.2 to 53.7 points, which also turned out to be better than expectations at 52.8 points. For the first time in a long time, Services PMI managed to consolidate above the psychological level of 50 points: in April, the indicator rose from 49.6 to 50.3 points, contrary to forecasts of a fall to 49.1 points.

Today, investors are focused on the publication of data from the IFO on the level of business optimism in Germany in April. In addition, during the day, the markets expect speeches by representatives of the European Central Bank Fabio Panetta and Philip Lane.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range expands slightly, freeing a path to new local highs for the "bulls". MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, after a short decline, reverses upwards, signaling strongly overbought EUR in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.2150, 1.2200, 1.2234, 1.2271.
Support levels: 1.2078, 1.2000, 1.1950, 1.1900.

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Nvidia Corp.: wave analysis

The price may grow.

On the daily chart, the upward third wave of the higher level (3) develops, within which the wave 3 of (3) formed. Now, a local correction has developed as the fourth wave 4 of (3), and the formation of the wave 5 of (3) has started, within which the first wave of the lower level i of 5 is developing. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 700.00–750.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 547.76.

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 Mastercard Inc.: wave analysis

The price may grow.

On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) develops, within which the wave 1 of (5) formed, and a local correction developed as the second wave 2 of (5). Now, the third wave 3 of (5) is forming, within which the wave of the lower level iii of 3 is developing. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 450.00–500.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 355.08.

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Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd.: wave analysis

The price may grow.

On the daily chart, the upward fifth wave of the higher level (5) develops, within which a downward correction ended as the fourth wave 4 of (5). Now, the development of the fifth wave of the lower level 5 of (5) has started, within which the wave i of 5 has formed, a local correction has developed as the wave ii of 5, and the formation of the wave iii of 5 has started. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 299.84–318.84. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 220.97.

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Microsoft Corp.: wave analysis

The price is in a correction and may grow.

On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) of 3 develops, within which the wave 3 of (5) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 has developed, and a local correction is forming as the fourth wave iv of 3. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 285.00–300.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 231.09.

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Bank of America Corp.: wave analysis

The price may grow.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) forms, within which the wave 3 of (3) developed. Now, a local correction has formed as the fourth wave 4 of (3), and the development of the wave 5 of (3) has started. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 44.50–47.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 37.66.

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EUR/USD: EUR quotes remain under pressure

Current trend

EUR shows a slight increase against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after yesterday's decline, which led to the renewal of local lows of April 22.

USD retains its previous growth momentum, which was formed at the end of last week, receiving additional support after the speech of the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who did not rule out the possibility of an early rate hike in order to avoid overheating the American economy, which is demonstrating impressive growth rates. Investors are also optimistic about news of the gradual reopening of the US states against the backdrop of an active vaccination campaign and a general stabilization of the epidemiological situation.

Market participants are focused on statistics on business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors of the eurozone from Markit. In addition, a speech by the European Central Bank representative Philip Lane is expected, who may hint on tightening monetary policy in the region.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, having approached its lows, is trying to reverse upwards, indicating the risks of oversold EUR in the ultra-short term.

To open new positions, it is necessary to wait for the trade signals to become clear.

Resistance levels: 1.2037, 1.2087, 1.2148, 1.2200.
Support levels: 1.2000, 1.1945, 1.1900, 1.1850.

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WTI Crude Oil: a sharp drop in crude stocks supported prices

Current trend

The price of North American light oil, WTI Crude Oil, moves within a corrective uptrend, trading at the level of 65.73.

The quotes received significant support after the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) published their reports on reserves this week. According to API data, inventories in storage facilities decreased by 7.688M barrels, which is significantly higher than the expected decrease by 2.191M. A day later, the EIA reported a drop in inventories of American firms by 7.990M barrels, which is significantly higher than the expected 2.346M. for a week, could not but provoke the growth of the instrument. The upward dynamics may continue until the end of the week.

Support and resistance

On the local chart, the price continues its corrective growth, trading above the key level of $65. Technical indicators are in the state of a buy signal, completing a local correction: the fluctuation range of the Alligator EMA is ready for a new extension, and the AO oscillator histogram is in the buy zone, although it is still forming downwards bars.

Resistance levels: 66.50, 68.70.

Support levels: 65.00, 63.00.
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XAU/USD: wave analysis

The pair may grow.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) formed, a downward correction developed as the fourth wave (4), and the formation of the fifth wave (5) started. Now, the first wave of the lower level 1 of (5) is developing, within which the correctional wave iv of 1 has formed, and the wave v of 1 is developing. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 1841.90–1877.85. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1768.71.

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