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JamesThatcher

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Everything posted by JamesThatcher

  1. Last week I only set up for two trades. Initially, I planned to trade three reports. The incident in the US where a cyber-attack brought the flow of one of the east coasts main oil pipelines to a grinding halt resulted in the weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories report that I typically trade too risky. So I wisely sat on the sideline this week. Nevertheless, it was still a good week for me to see US CPI data come out with a massive +0.6 deviation, this gave me some nine minutes of perfect price action, and I banked at least 30 pips across all my accounts. See the price action here. : https://
  2. No trade for me on this data as Mexico's central bank voted unanimously to keep the interest rate unchanged at 4%. It was in line with expectation, however, should a surprise change occur, this kind of report would create a tremendous move, and I would be laughing all the way to the bank. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=50924;t=2021-5-13 19:0:00.0;s=USDMXN;r=S1
  3. What does the data mean to the market? Mexico's central bank vote on where to set the countries interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the MXN (Mexican Peso), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the MXN. Historic deviations and their outcome November 12 2020 We saw an increase of +18 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, which created a massive 546 pip move in the first minute following the data release
  4. Today we saw a massive positive +0.6 deviation on the headline Core CPI M/M with a supporting positive deviation of +0.7 on the Core CPI Y/Y without conflicts on all secondary lines. I got a great 29 pip move in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some nine minutes after the trade, giving plenty of opportunities to choose the best possible exit. The perfect storm, with significant deviation, big initial move and lots of continuing price action, making it virtually impossible not to make money. It's the second week of the month, two big trades under my
  5. What does the data mean to the market? The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also. There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventori
  6. What does the data mean to the market? The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD. There are 4 lines of data. CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline CPI - Core (Y/Y) CPI - (M/M) CPI - (Y/Y) Historic deviations and their outcome April 1
  7. Last week ended on a massive high. I set up for five trades, none of which triggered until Friday's employment data. I originally scheduled to trade Canadian employment data, as this is hot. This time it came out with the highly anticipated US Non-Farm payrolls data. I decided Canadian data risked being overshadowed by the US data, so I put my money on the US data instead. What a result, we saw a massive shock to the market from NFP, with the US losing 730k more jobs than expected. Price action was fantastic, and I ended my week with a load more pips banked. See the after trade vid
  8. Today I saw a massive deviation of -734k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with a supporting +0.3% rise from the Unemployment Rate, and This crushed the US dollar across the board. I managed to bank some excellent profits early on the back of this data as the USD pairs continued to slide south. It was a shame that the Average Earnings conflicted largely. A conflict of +0.7 on this line would have upset the move in standard times, but not today! The first week of the month over, one big win under the belt. Happy Friday, and enjoy your weekend! James See Chart here: https:
  9. What does the data mean to the market? The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buy on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD. NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. With UR a lower number is good for the US and vice versa. Where
  10. As expected, there was no change today. Even though the expectation was for no change, should the unexpected happen, missing it would be devastating as we would likely see some fireworks on the price action. I will continue to set up interest rates for this reason. When this scenario happened before, I was happy I had set up.
  11. Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=49925;t=2021-5-5 14:30:00.0;s=;r=S1
  12. What does the data mean to the market? The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish. Historic deviations and their outcome March 18 2021 +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great co
  13. We saw both lines of data deviate in the same direction, but the headline only gave a -0.2 deviation which wasn't enough for me. Price action was excellent, seeing some 40 pips in the two minutes directly after the news was released. The move was staggered and slow if I had have traded, I'm sure my fill price would have made for significant profits. Good to see reactions like this. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=49879;t=2021-5-4 22:45:00.0;s=EURNZD;r=S1
  14. What does the data mean to the market? The Norges Bank decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NOK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish. Historic deviations and their outcome May 7 2020 A further cut of 0.25% leaving interest rates at an unprecedented 0.00% March 20 2020 A further emergency cut of 0.75% to the in
  15. What does the data mean to the market? The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also. There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventori
  16. What does the data mean to the market? The Unemployment Rate released by Statistics New Zealand is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labour force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the New Zealand labour market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the New Zealand economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish). There are two main data lines from this report Unemployment Rate and Employment Change; both must deviate in the same direction to take a tr
  17. Last week I set up only for three trades, and one trade gave us a deviation from the forecast, which my software fired on. Check out the video from this trade here It was a great trade, perfect price action, and an excellent example of what I do well. Getting the right set of results and seeing price action like this makes for good profits. You can see the price action on the charts here also: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=43386;t=2021-4-28%201:30:00.0;s=EURAUD;r=S5 Remember that it's not about the number of trades taken, but the right trades, wh
  18. Today gave a deviation of -0.2% Trimmed Mean Q/Q -0.1% Trimmed Mean Y/Y with complimentary deviation on both the headline (Y/Y and Q/Q) of -0.3%. Everything lined up nicely. For those who are watching my plans closely, the deviation differs from my trade plan on this occasion. I set my software to look at all four lines and allowed it to quantify if the overall actual deviation from forecast on all four lines was enough to move the price significantly. If I was restricted to auto-clicking from one data line, then I would have missed this opportunity. I was happy with
  19. What does the data mean to the market? The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also. There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventori
  20. There were no changes to the forecast interest rates; they will remain at 0% for the foreseeable future, there was no conflicting additional quantitative easing. Price actions were very dull; however, these trades can make a small fortune if a surprise hits the market, and that's why I set up for these interest rates. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=43349;t=2021-4-27 7:30:00.0;s=USDSEK;r=S2
  21. What does the data mean to the market? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The impact on the currency may go both ways. A rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency. On the other hand, during the recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and a fall in local currency. The RBA has a dual mandate of reduced unemployment and achieving higher inflation, So we hope a surprise increase in
  22. What does the data mean to the market? The Sveriges Riksbank Executive Board's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the SEK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish. Historic deviations and their outcome December 19 2019 Spike but retrace due to not being a total surprise on this occasion. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=13626;t=2019
  23. Last week, I didn't have anything near a deviation, and no pips banked. I stood back and watched NZD CPI as I wasn't confident about how it would react; I'll revisit this next month. Fridays German Composite PMI became overshadowed by current Covid-19 news, and therefore I decided to sit on the sidelines and save my equity. The most exciting news I saw last week was from the Bank of Canada regarding the forecast of an interest rate hike now looking to hit in 2022 and not 2023 as previously forecast, making Canadian data much hotter than before. This week's diary is pretty sparing again, b
  24. Todays Oil deviation wasn't even half of what I set up for so no trade today,take a look at the chart though, it's scary when you see the price move in the right direction of the news and immediately reverse and go the wrong way, Remember the importance of your analysis and risk reward ratio, not just any deviation will work eveytime. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=41182;t=2021-4-21 14:30:00.0;s=;r=S1
  25. Core CPI was nowhere near the deviations I needed, so no trade for me today. As you see, not much of a move on CAD pairs for CPI; however, notice the charts 90 minutes later when the Bank of Canada's monetary policy report suggested that interest rates could hike in 2022 and not their previous estimation in 2023. That means next month, this and other Canadian data becomes hot. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=41172;t=2021-4-21 12:30:00.0;s=;r=M15
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