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JamesThatcher

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  1. As expected, there was no change today. Even though the expectation was for no change, should the unexpected happen, missing it would be devastating as we would likely see some fireworks on the price action. I will continue to set up interest rates for this reason. When this scenario happened before, I was happy I had set up.
  2. Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=49925;t=2021-5-5 14:30:00.0;s=;r=S1
  3. What does the data mean to the market? The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish. Historic deviations and their outcome March 18 2021 +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great co
  4. We saw both lines of data deviate in the same direction, but the headline only gave a -0.2 deviation which wasn't enough for me. Price action was excellent, seeing some 40 pips in the two minutes directly after the news was released. The move was staggered and slow if I had have traded, I'm sure my fill price would have made for significant profits. Good to see reactions like this. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=49879;t=2021-5-4 22:45:00.0;s=EURNZD;r=S1
  5. What does the data mean to the market? The Norges Bank decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NOK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish. Historic deviations and their outcome May 7 2020 A further cut of 0.25% leaving interest rates at an unprecedented 0.00% March 20 2020 A further emergency cut of 0.75% to the in
  6. What does the data mean to the market? The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also. There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventori
  7. What does the data mean to the market? The Unemployment Rate released by Statistics New Zealand is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labour force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the New Zealand labour market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the New Zealand economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish). There are two main data lines from this report Unemployment Rate and Employment Change; both must deviate in the same direction to take a tr
  8. Last week I set up only for three trades, and one trade gave us a deviation from the forecast, which my software fired on. Check out the video from this trade here It was a great trade, perfect price action, and an excellent example of what I do well. Getting the right set of results and seeing price action like this makes for good profits. You can see the price action on the charts here also: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=43386;t=2021-4-28%201:30:00.0;s=EURAUD;r=S5 Remember that it's not about the number of trades taken, but the right trades, wh
  9. Today gave a deviation of -0.2% Trimmed Mean Q/Q -0.1% Trimmed Mean Y/Y with complimentary deviation on both the headline (Y/Y and Q/Q) of -0.3%. Everything lined up nicely. For those who are watching my plans closely, the deviation differs from my trade plan on this occasion. I set my software to look at all four lines and allowed it to quantify if the overall actual deviation from forecast on all four lines was enough to move the price significantly. If I was restricted to auto-clicking from one data line, then I would have missed this opportunity. I was happy with
  10. What does the data mean to the market? The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also. There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventori
  11. There were no changes to the forecast interest rates; they will remain at 0% for the foreseeable future, there was no conflicting additional quantitative easing. Price actions were very dull; however, these trades can make a small fortune if a surprise hits the market, and that's why I set up for these interest rates. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=43349;t=2021-4-27 7:30:00.0;s=USDSEK;r=S2
  12. What does the data mean to the market? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The impact on the currency may go both ways. A rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency. On the other hand, during the recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and a fall in local currency. The RBA has a dual mandate of reduced unemployment and achieving higher inflation, So we hope a surprise increase in
  13. What does the data mean to the market? The Sveriges Riksbank Executive Board's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the SEK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish. Historic deviations and their outcome December 19 2019 Spike but retrace due to not being a total surprise on this occasion. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=13626;t=2019
  14. Last week, I didn't have anything near a deviation, and no pips banked. I stood back and watched NZD CPI as I wasn't confident about how it would react; I'll revisit this next month. Fridays German Composite PMI became overshadowed by current Covid-19 news, and therefore I decided to sit on the sidelines and save my equity. The most exciting news I saw last week was from the Bank of Canada regarding the forecast of an interest rate hike now looking to hit in 2022 and not 2023 as previously forecast, making Canadian data much hotter than before. This week's diary is pretty sparing again, b
  15. Todays Oil deviation wasn't even half of what I set up for so no trade today,take a look at the chart though, it's scary when you see the price move in the right direction of the news and immediately reverse and go the wrong way, Remember the importance of your analysis and risk reward ratio, not just any deviation will work eveytime. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=41182;t=2021-4-21 14:30:00.0;s=;r=S1
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