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analyst75

analyst75

Member Since 23 Jun 2016
Offline Last Active Dec 27 2018 05:04 AM
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Correlation between Gold and the AUD (exposed)

27 December 2018 - 05:06 AM

I got an email over the weekend asking about the correlation if any between gold and the AUD and to be honest I didn’t know if there was any relationship between the two other than the long bow stories generated by economists. So I decided to have look. Whenever you start to look at the relationship between instruments you need to first define what you are looking at. The email I got implied that they looked the same at present therefore this implied some form of relationship.

 

At a glance both instruments at present seemed to be forming some form of broad congestion but this raises the question as to whether this a relevant observation since it would be possible to find hundreds of instruments that currently displaying the same pattern. However, a simple analogy will suffice to put this into context. If you have two cars driving side by side down a road this does not imply that they have either come from the same place or more importantly mean that they are heading towards the same destination. Correlation between instruments is more nuanced than simply observing that they look the same.

 

Correlation can be broken down into two parts, price correlation and returns correlation. Price correlation looks at whether prices move together with any degree of regularity and traders often stop their analysis here because they assume that if they move together then the impact of either an account or trading system will be the same. The issue with this is that it is not representative of the full picture. There is a second arm to correlations and this is the idea that returns between instruments can be correlated. It is important to note that it is possible for an instruments to have very high price correlations – in simple terms they look similar but have very different returns correlations. It is returns that matter to an account not whether something looks the same as something else.

 

When breaking down correlations I like to ask a simple question – what does the value of $1 look like if invested into each instrument since this takes into account their differing historical returns and unpacks any link between these returns.

 

As you can see from the chart the trajectory of $1 invested into either instrument shows at times a wildly diverging path which was exacerbated during gold’s Bull Run from 2008 and this raises the question for traders as to which possible returns would you like to expose your portfolio to. The issue here is not so much whether instruments look the same and have the same set up but rather what potential impact will trading them have upon your account. It is also quite easy to understand the differing nature of these returns by reference to the environment within which instruments exists.

 

Metals such as gold are free from Government interference – they can find their own level. Currencies are not free from such intervention, the fate of the AUD is intimately linked to Government policy and this ultimately puts boundaries around where the currency can go to. For example it is impossible for a currency pair to start its run at $0.75 and for it to be $7.50 three months later – this sort of move is the preserve of equities.

 

So outside of currently looking the same my answer to the question as to whether these two instruments share any meaningful connection for traders I would have to say no. There will also be someone who talks about the narrative behind the relationship between commodities and a given currency but my response to that is that this is an irrelevancy. Traders are not interested in stories or whether things look the same, they are or should be interested in returns.

 

You can view the charts attached to the articles here: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/correlation-between-gold-and-the-aud/

 

Author: Chris Tate

 

Article reproduced with kind permission of TradingGame.com.au

 

This piece is ended with the 3 quotes below:

 

“The main message I want traders to understand is how important the disciplined execution of a well thought out trading plan is in today's markets.” – Andy Jordan

 

“When you are overconfident, you are ripe for a major setback in the market.” – Joe Ross

 

“Every system begins in drawdown”. – Chris Tate

 

www.tallinex.com wants you to make money from the markets

 

 

 


Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (December 3 - 7, 2018)

01 December 2018 - 07:09 AM

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

The bias is neutral in the short-term and bearish in the long-term. Last week, price swung upwards and downwards without having a directional movement. That is going to change this week, as a prolonged directional movement is expected, which would most probably favor bulls, as price is approaching major support lines at 1.1250 and 1.1200 (areas where further bearish effort will be rejected).  

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

Although inversely, when compared to the EUR/USD, this pair is neutral in the short-term and bullish in the long-term. The market also moved upwards and downwards last week, without any clear direction. This week, a clear directional movement is anticipated and that would most probably favor bears. This does not mean there cannot be rally attempts, but it would meet a strong hindrance at the resistance levels of 1.0050, 1.0100 and 1.0150.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish  

This is a bear market – both in the long and the short term. Bullish efforts have proven abortive as the market retains its bearishness. On Friday, price closed at 1.2744, and it may go further downwards towards the accumulation territory at 1.2700, and below that.  However, the further southwards the price goes, the higher the probability of a bullish breakout when it does happen, and that will be strong when it happens.  

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

USDJPY is slightly bullish – with a kind of precarious Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Further rally from here will result in a stronger Bullish Confirmation Pattern; while a southwards movement from here will result in nullification of the Bullish Confirmation Pattern, which may harbinger a “sell” signal in the market. Either of the aforementioned scenario will materialize this week, for a rise in momentum is expected.  

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Neutral

This is a neutral market, which has been consolidating for the past 3 weeks. The consolidation phase is bounded by the supply zone at 130.00 and the demand zone at 126.00. As long as price is within that supply zone and that demand zone, the consolidation phase will exist. On the other hand, there should be an end to the consolidation phase before the end of the week. It is after that that winners will be determined; either the bull or the bear.

 

GBPJPY

Dominant bias: Neutral  

This is a flat market, which has been particularly flat since the middle of November 2018. There is supposed to be an end to the flatness this week, because a rise in the momentum of the market is expected. The most probable direction would be skywards when a breakout does occur, because there is a high probability that GBP will gain enormous stamina. The supply zones at 146.00, 146.50 and 147.00 might be reached soon.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“Trading is like playing chess; you can learn a lot about it by reading books but if you really want to get good in it, you actually have to do it on your own. Practice is necessary to becoming successful in many professions; and trading is one of them!” – Andy Jordan

 

Source: www.tallinex.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (December 3 - 7, 2018)

01 December 2018 - 07:09 AM

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

The bias is neutral in the short-term and bearish in the long-term. Last week, price swung upwards and downwards without having a directional movement. That is going to change this week, as a prolonged directional movement is expected, which would most probably favor bulls, as price is approaching major support lines at 1.1250 and 1.1200 (areas where further bearish effort will be rejected).  

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

Although inversely, when compared to the EUR/USD, this pair is neutral in the short-term and bullish in the long-term. The market also moved upwards and downwards last week, without any clear direction. This week, a clear directional movement is anticipated and that would most probably favor bears. This does not mean there cannot be rally attempts, but it would meet a strong hindrance at the resistance levels of 1.0050, 1.0100 and 1.0150.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish  

This is a bear market – both in the long and the short term. Bullish efforts have proven abortive as the market retains its bearishness. On Friday, price closed at 1.2744, and it may go further downwards towards the accumulation territory at 1.2700, and below that.  However, the further southwards the price goes, the higher the probability of a bullish breakout when it does happen, and that will be strong when it happens.  

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

USDJPY is slightly bullish – with a kind of precarious Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Further rally from here will result in a stronger Bullish Confirmation Pattern; while a southwards movement from here will result in nullification of the Bullish Confirmation Pattern, which may harbinger a “sell” signal in the market. Either of the aforementioned scenario will materialize this week, for a rise in momentum is expected.  

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Neutral

This is a neutral market, which has been consolidating for the past 3 weeks. The consolidation phase is bounded by the supply zone at 130.00 and the demand zone at 126.00. As long as price is within that supply zone and that demand zone, the consolidation phase will exist. On the other hand, there should be an end to the consolidation phase before the end of the week. It is after that that winners will be determined; either the bull or the bear.

 

GBPJPY

Dominant bias: Neutral  

This is a flat market, which has been particularly flat since the middle of November 2018. There is supposed to be an end to the flatness this week, because a rise in the momentum of the market is expected. The most probable direction would be skywards when a breakout does occur, because there is a high probability that GBP will gain enormous stamina. The supply zones at 146.00, 146.50 and 147.00 might be reached soon.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“Trading is like playing chess; you can learn a lot about it by reading books but if you really want to get good in it, you actually have to do it on your own. Practice is necessary to becoming successful in many professions; and trading is one of them!” – Andy Jordan

 

Source: www.tallinex.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


There is no magic in trading

25 November 2018 - 04:37 AM

THERE IS NO MAGIC

 

“Your trading methodology has to make sense for you even if it’s the opposite of what makes sense for other people. Choices made in developing your approach to trading should suit you personally to minimize internal conflict. Only then will you have the confidence to remain true to its development and its execution during tough times. The long-term advantage of developing your own system from scratch (rather than trading someone else’s system) assures you of high compatibility with your beliefs, personality, edges, and objectives. That compatibility becomes one of your sustainable edges. As Curtis Faith of Turtle fame noted: “It’s not about the system, it’s about the trader’s ability to execute the system.” – (Source: VanTharp.com)

 

 

LB and I have just wrapped up the final in our series on full time trading. For the most part they have been enjoyable except for one twat who complained that it was unprofessional of LB to not present when she was suffering from severe laryngitis. Presenting for the first time in years is an interesting thing as the expectations of those you present to also change over time.

 

This particular series could be summarised as all the mistakes I have made in trading and the solutions I have found such as they are. One of the things I have learnt over the past few decades is that there is no magic. Trading is a grinding profession where your central tenet is not to go broke waiting for the next big move. I think in part some attendees were waiting for the magic.

 

That point in the seminar where you do a grand reveal of your magic strategy that never has a losing trade which means you can quit your job tomorrow and start trading full time with nothing other than a credit card because CFD providers will now in their wisdom allow you to fund your account with credit and earn frequent flyer points.

 

Regrettably the field of investing has been tainted by endless shonks who have polluted the thinking of people before they even set foot in the market. Before writing this piece, I Googled trading bitcoin for a living and got 35,900,000 returns. Certainly not all of them relate to trading bitcoin or any other crypto full time but if even 10% do then then that’s a staggering 3.5 million  sites promising people that they can give up their day job and start trading overnight.

 

The central theme of these sorts of sites and it is not limited to cryptos is that you can trade full time with very limited capital. And you can do this because you will never have a losing trade. Your equity curve will be a linear trajectory that soars from the bottom left hand corner of the chart to infinity without ever breaking stride. I can understand why this sort of thing has permeated the thinking of new traders.

 

Whilst this sounds seductive it ignores many of the key realities of trading the foremost of which is that trading does not produce linear returns. We encounter a feature of equity curves called drawdown. All trading systems generate drawdowns – in a very general sense if you are a trend following you expect to have a drawdown of between 15% to 25% once per year. As an example, consider the equity curve below.

 

This is the equity curve of Dunn Capital a money manager that uses trend following as its basic tool. You see decades of outperformance punctuated by drawdowns. There is an inviolate relationship between performance and drawdown, if you are swinging fr the fences you need to expect to be struck out a lot. Irrespective of the trading system drawdown is a fact of life for traders – it can only be avoided by not trading. If someone tells you that their equity curve never draws down, then they are a liar. It really is that simple.

 

The implication for those seeking to trade full time is that your first drawdown will coincide with your move to full time trading. This is a natural feature of systems, they cut their losses and then let their profits run. There is a timing dislocation between these two events that results in the account value immediately slipping. The problem is that this occurs at a time when you are most economically and emotionally vulnerable, it is also a problem because most new traders are undercapitalised. They simply don’t have enough money because they have not thought their transitions through and they may or may not have been infected by the thinking that you can give up your day job and earn 100k a year on a bank of 50k. It is at this point in a seminar that I can see how people begin to sag because it begins to dawn on them that they need much more than think to survive as a trader.

 

However, I think they are missing the bigger picture since the move to full time trading does not have to be an all-in proposition. The move can occur gradually over time as your capital grows and you acquire more skill. And along the way your life begins to change in small but incremental amounts. You may even reach a point where you stop believe in magic and start believing in your own ability to slowly and inexorably change your own life.

 

Author: Chris Tate

Article reproduced with kind permission of the author.

Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/there-is-no-magic/

 

 

I end this piece with the quotes below:

 

“Just coming back from vacation where we’ve been doing a lot of hiking in the mountains, here’s an analogy. You’re standing on a peak of a mountain looking at an even higher peak. But to get there you first have to go down that small valley…no way around it!

 

It's the same in trading, so as long as the size of the drawdown is within your expectations, you can and should relax when you’re in a drawdown. It's just a necessity you have to endure to get those profits. So understanding and accepting Drawdowns as part of this business will make your life as a trader much easier!” – Marco Meyer (Source: Tradingeducators.com)

 

“Having said that drawdowns are still making me uncomfortable. I don't like them at all and each time I'm in a big one I'm having the same doubts and troubles most of you probably have too. But knowing that actually nothing is wrong helps a lot to make it through these times. Without that knowledge and understanding, you not only have the doubts but you allow them to win over, follow them and then probably stop trading at the worst time possible.” – Marco Meyer (Source: Tradingeducators.com)

 

 

www.tallinex.com wants you to make money from the markets

 

 

 


Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (October 27 - November 2, 2018)

28 October 2018 - 05:44 AM

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

EURUSD is in a bearish trend – which started about 2 weeks ago. Price went downwards by roughly 160 pips last week, having gone down by 250 pips since October 15. Further bearish movement is anticipated, that would move price towards the support lines at 1.1350 (which was previously tested and will be tested again), 1.1300, and 1.1250. However, a very strong selling pressure is needed to break the support line at 1.1250 to the downside.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

There remains a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on USDCHF, which has been in place for at least, 4 weeks. Since the current bullish movement began in September 21, price have moved forwards by about 470 pips. Last week, there was no significant bullish movement, and price closed on a bearish note on Friday, which was presumed to be a temporary reversal in the context of an uptrend. The bullish journey is expected to resume soon.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish  

The movement on Cable is nearly similar to the movement on EURUSD – the only difference being that the movement on the former is faster than the movement on the latter. Since October 12, price has dropped at least, 450 pips, as the market makes high lows and lower lows. Higher lows allow traders to enter short at better prices, and it is a pattern that is expected to continue as Cable targets the accumulation territories at 1.2800, 1.2750 and 1.2700.  

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

The market is bearish, especially in the short-term; and in spite of bulls’ effort, a bearish signal has already been generated and this will become more significant as the market goes further southwards (a trend that is expected this week and next week). There would be pauses and transitory rallies on the way, but the demand levels at 111.50, 111.00 and 110.50 would be reached.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

This is a classic example of a bearish movement. Since September 21, price has dropped roughly 600 pips, thus giving a rise to a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern. The market will continue its drop this week, as JPY continues to exert its energy. There is going to be lots of opposition to the bearish trend once price reaches the demand zone at 126.50, nonetheless. But with enough selling pressure, the demand zone will be breached to the downside.

 

GBPJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

There was a massive drop on the GBPJPY, which happened last week, and which ended the protracted ranging movement that was seen in the latter part of September 2018 and the early part of October 2018. The last week drop was over 400 pips, as the weakness in GBP was too favorable to the stoing JPY. Price closed on a bearish note on Friday, following some shallow upwards bounces. Further drop of at least, 250 pips is anticipated this week.  

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“Markets go up and markets go down. Sometimes they go up a lot and sometimes they go down a lot.” – Chris Tate

 

Source: www.tallinex.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (October 27 - November 2, 2018)       

 

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

EURUSD is in a bearish trend – which started about 2 weeks ago. Price went downwards by roughly 160 pips last week, having gone down by 250 pips since October 15. Further bearish movement is anticipated, that would move price towards the support lines at 1.1350 (which was previously tested and will be tested again), 1.1300, and 1.1250. However, a very strong selling pressure is needed to break the support line at 1.1250 to the downside.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

There remains a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on USDCHF, which has been in place for at least, 4 weeks. Since the current bullish movement began in September 21, price have moved forwards by about 470 pips. Last week, there was no significant bullish movement, and price closed on a bearish note on Friday, which was presumed to be a temporary reversal in the context of an uptrend. The bullish journey is expected to resume soon.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish  

The movement on Cable is nearly similar to the movement on EURUSD – the only difference being that the movement on the former is faster than the movement on the latter. Since October 12, price has dropped at least, 450 pips, as the market makes high lows and lower lows. Higher lows allow traders to enter short at better prices, and it is a pattern that is expected to continue as Cable targets the accumulation territories at 1.2800, 1.2750 and 1.2700.  

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

The market is bearish, especially in the short-term; and in spite of bulls’ effort, a bearish signal has already been generated and this will become more significant as the market goes further southwards (a trend that is expected this week and next week). There would be pauses and transitory rallies on the way, but the demand levels at 111.50, 111.00 and 110.50 would be reached.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

This is a classic example of a bearish movement. Since September 21, price has dropped roughly 600 pips, thus giving a rise to a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern. The market will continue its drop this week, as JPY continues to exert its energy. There is going to be lots of opposition to the bearish trend once price reaches the demand zone at 126.50, nonetheless. But with enough selling pressure, the demand zone will be breached to the downside.

 

GBPJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

There was a massive drop on the GBPJPY, which happened last week, and which ended the protracted ranging movement that was seen in the latter part of September 2018 and the early part of October 2018. The last week drop was over 400 pips, as the weakness in GBP was too favorable to the stoing JPY. Price closed on a bearish note on Friday, following some shallow upwards bounces. Further drop of at least, 250 pips is anticipated this week.  

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“Markets go up and markets go down. Sometimes they go up a lot and sometimes they go down a lot.” – Chris Tate

 

Source: www.tallinex.com