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Trend indicator SuperTrend was created on the basis of ATR and CCI. It is an excellent indicator of trend direction. It can be used as a foundation of the trading system that is based on following the trend. Formula UpperLevel=(High+Low)/2+Multiplier*Atr(Period); LowerLevel=(High+Low)/2-Multiplier*Atr(Period); Trading use The SuperTrend indicator is build upon on two indicators – ATR and CCI. CCI (the standard parameter is 50) points the direction of trend movement, meanwhile ATR is used to determine the levels of indicator. If CCI is above 0, SuperTrend either rises or moves horizontally (depending on ATR). If CCI is negative, SuperTrend falls (depending on ATR also). One of the possible ways to use this indicator is to enter the market after correction paying attention to the color of SuperTrend: if it changed from red to green (it means the trend turned from descending to ascending), wait for the first descending correction and open buy position. Open sell position if the indicator changed its color from green to red: wait for the first ascending correction and sell. It should also be noted that SuperTrend can indicate the short-term support and resistance levels. But one should carefully study them before using and only if they are necessary. More accurate data of this type is produced by Tenkan and Kijun lines of Ishimoku indicator supertrend.zip

Durable Goods Report The Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturer's Shipments, Inventories and Orders, or the Durable Goods Report, provides data on new orders received from more than 4,000 manufacturers of durable goods, which are generally defined as higher-priced capital goods orders with a useful life of three years or more, such as cars, semiconductor equipment and turbines.More than 85 industries are represented in the sample, which covers the entire United States. Figures are provided in current dollars along with percentage change from prior month and prior year for new orders, total shipments, total unfilled orders (orders that have been booked but not filled as of month-end) and inventories. Revisions are also included for the prior three months if they materially affect prior-released results. The data compiled for consumer durable goods is one of the 10 components of the Conference Board's U.S. Leading Index, as growth at this level has typically occurred in advance of general economic expansion. The headline figure will often leave out transportation and defense orders, as they can show higher volatility than the rest of the areas. In these industries, the ticket prices are sufficiently high that the sample error alone could swing the presented figure significantly. It is useful for investors not only in the nominal terms of order levels, but as a sign of business demand as a whole. Capital goods represent the higher-cost capital upgrades a company can make, and signals confidence in business conditions, which could lead to increased sales further up the supply chain and gains in hours worked and non-farm payrolls. Investors can play with the numbers here and look at things such as the rates of growth of inventories versus shipments; changes in the inventory/shipments ratio over time can point to either demand (falling ratio) or supply (rising ratio) imbalances in the economy. Because capital goods take longer on average to manufacture than cyclical goods, new orders are often used by investors to gauge the likelihood of sales and earnings increases by the companies who make them. For instance, a company like Boeing could make revenue adjustments on the upside based on strong new order growth, signs of which could be gleaned from the Durable Goods Report. In addition, when production and capacity at U.S. manufacturers is rising, it helps to combat inflationary pressure, as more goods will be produced for consumer purchase. Investors should be cautious to see through the high levels of volatility found in areas of the Durable Goods Report. Month-to-month changes should be compared with year-over-year figures and year-to-date estimates, looking for the overall trends that tend to define the business cycle.

Draghi Says Bond-Buying Pledge Helps Transmit Rates European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said his pledge to buy government bonds is helping to ensure that interest-rate cuts reach the parts of the euro-area economy that need them the most. “Our measures gave breathing space from markets driven by panic, which were forcing the economy into a position where inappropriately high interest rates would make default a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Draghi said in a speech in London. “Today we are seeing some encouraging signs of tangible improvements in financial conditions. Spreads in sovereign and corporate debt markets have narrowed considerably.” Since Draghi pledged last year to buy unlimited amounts of government bonds in exchange for countries signing up to economic reforms, conditions in euro-area financial markets have improved. Even though his so-called Outright Monetary Transactions program has yet to be used, bond yields in distressed countries such as Greece and Spain have dropped from euro-era records and banks’ reliance on ECB funding has declined, indicating confidence is returning. The ECB has “started observing convincing signs that fragmentation on the funding side for banks has decreased greatly,” Draghi said last night. “And although bank lending to businesses and households remains anaemic, we are now seeing some signs of slight improvement on the lending side as well. Challenging Conditions The yield on Greek 10-year bonds fell below 10 percent on May 3 for the first time since October 2010. It traded at 8.83 percent at 8:28 a.m. in Frankfurt. The yield on Spanish 10-year securities rose 2 basis points to 4.31 percent. The euro was little changed at $1.2937. The ECB cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low of 0.5 percent this month and Draghi indicated he’s ready to lower borrowing costs again if the economic outlook deteriorates. The Frankfurt-based institution will publish new forecasts in June. “Economic conditions in the euro area remain challenging” and “labor-market conditions remain weak,” Draghi said. “To maintain and expand the productive capacity of our societies, national governments need to improve the structural functioning of their respective economies.” The “painful” reforms already undertaken by debt-strapped countries “are starting to bear fruit,” he said. “We see this very clearly, for instance, in the impressive improvement in export performance in Ireland, Spain and Portugal and in the recent uptick in industrial production in the latter two countries.” Europe’s monetary union is more stable than it was a year ago and markets are “fully confident that the euro is a strong and stable currency,” Draghi said.

UK: BBA Mortgage Approvals rise by 32.2K in April The number of home loans issued by the BBA in April amounted to 32.2K, following 31.4K registered the previous month. Consensus pointed to slightly more increase of 32.7K.

Currency War caused USD to soar - HSBC HSBC Strategists believe that due to the ensuing currency war, the USD rally has further to run. They believe that the currency war is getting bigger and more intense, drawing ever more protagonists into the fray. They feel that in part, this may be because of the success of those central banks who have already sought economic advantage through targeting their currency. Further, they see that the market has realised there is no point in fighting the central banks at this time, and the USD is the natural candidate to act as the offset to this desire for depreciation elsewhere. They write, “If anything, the risks are for even greater USD strength than we have pencilled into our new forecast profiles.” So far, they note that Asia ex-Japan has largely not been involved in the currency war, but were the Yen to weaken substantially further, this could change. They believe that such an escalation of the conflict would boost the USD. In addition, their USD bullishness does not rely on an early tapering or end to US QE3, but if the Fed acted sooner than we expect then the USD would capitalise. The USD has already risen but this is just the beginning.

Durable Goods Orders in U.S. Probably Rose in April After Slump Orders for U.S. durable goods probably increased in April after falling by the most in seven months as companies invested in aircraft and capital equipment, economists forecast ahead of a report today. The 1.5 percent gain in bookings for goods meant to last at least three years would follow March’s 6.9 percent decline, the biggest since August, according to the median forecast from 78 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Orders excluding transportation equipment, which is a volatile component, may have risen 0.5 percent last month after dropping 2.9 percent in March Quickening activity in the housing and auto industries may ripple throughout manufacturing, rendering the economy better able to recover from a slowdown this quarter. At the same time, government cutbacks, higher taxes on consumers and cooling exports are crimping demand, which means any rebound will be slow to develop. “Manufacturing won’t fall off the cliff in the next six months, but I see it crunching along slowly,” said Jeffrey Herzog, a senior economist at Oxford Economics Ltd. in New York. “The main near-term risk is that the effects from the higher taxes or government spending cuts are stronger than anticipated.” The Commerce Department will release the durable-goods data at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Estimates (DGNOCHNG) in the Bloomberg survey ranged from a drop of 5.9 percent to a gain of 4.6 percent. Aircraft bookings probably underpinned April’s rebound. Boeing Co. (BA), the Chicago-based aerospace company, said it received 51 orders last month, up from 39 in March. Business Investment Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, considered a proxy for future business investment, picked up by 0.5 percent last month following a 0.6 percent drop in March, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed. A pickup in manufacturing would stem a recent slowdown in inventory building that curbed activity. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index declined in March and April, falling to just above the 50 level that represents the dividing line between contraction and expansion. The U.S. economy probably cooled in the second quarter, giving businesses a reason to reduce the amount of stockpiles they hold, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The federal government has also slashed outlays under sequestration, and American earners are facing increased payroll taxes. The weaker pace of growth is hurting manufacturers’ shares. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Machinery Index has advanced 9.7 percent this year, compared with a 15.7 percent gain in the broader S&P 500. Housing, Autos In the second half of 2013, a faster expansion will probably give companies reason to spend more, supporting producers. Home construction is picking up, and automakers are boosting output. “We see indicators which point towards strengthening economies,” Louis Chenevert, chief executive officer of United Technologies Corp. (UTX), said during an industry conference on May 21. Orders in the first quarter signal a rebound in the second half of the year, he said. SOURCE: Bloombergs.com

Beige Book Made public in 1983, the Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District, or Beige Book, as it is known, has a different style and tone than many other indicators. Rather than being filled with raw data, the Beige Book takes a more conversational approach. The book has 13 sections in total; 12 regional reports from each of the member Fed district banks, preceded by one national summary drawn from the individual reports that follow it. This is the first chance investors have to see how the Fed draws logical and intuitive conclusions from the raw data presented in other indicator releases. The Beige Book is published eight times per year, just before each of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. While it is used by committee members during the meeting itself, it does not carry more clout than other data values and indicators. There is a lot of real-time data that the Fed has at its disposal and, unfortunately, notes from the FOMC meetings themselves are currently not public information. The Beige Book aims to give to give a broad overview of the economy, bringing many variables and indicators into the mix. Discussion will be about things such as labor markets, wage and price pressures, retail and ecommerce activity and manufacturing output. Investors can see comments that are forward-looking; the Beige Book will contain comments that look to predict trends and anticipate changes over the next few months or quarters. he Beige Book by itself is not likely to have a big effect on the markets in the short term, mainly because no new data series is presented here. Investors and Fed watchers look to the Beige Book to gain insight into the next FOMC meeting. Is there language that shows fear about inflation? Do the reports suggest that the economy needs a financial boost to continue growing? This is the critical information that will be analyzed in the Beige Book. To read the Beige Book effectively, one must become accustomed to "Fed speak", a special verbiage of measured remarks intentionally designed to say a little without ever saying a lot. The last thing the Fed wants to do with its words is corner itself into a pre-supposed policy decision prior to the next FOMC meeting. Investors won't ever see a definitive statement about the Fed going one way or the other with monetary policy, but there may be valuable clues in the Beige Book - at least for the trained eye The Fed directors and their staffs will use their very long proverbial arms to obtain an economic pulse that can't be found in any other indicator's report. They will interview business leaders, bank presidents, members of other Fed boards and hundreds of other informal networks before writing the reports that will be compiled in the Beige Book. Investors who hold investments that conduct business in specific regions of the country may find valuable information about how those areas are performing as a whole. For instance, a stockholder in a regional bank operating in the Southeastern U.S. would want to know what the Atlanta Fed Bank says about the health of that region. Occasionally, the Beige Book will give evidence that may contradict what a previous indicator has presented; the Employment Report may suggest that there is slack in the labor market, while Beige Book reports may give anecdotal evidence that wage pressures are forming, or that certain specific labor markets are tight On rare occasions, the Beige Book will be released at a time when information is badly needed in the markets; shock events like the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks or a stock market crash can effectively wipe the data slate clean, and investors will count on the Fed to help describe the relative state of affairs during these tumultuous times.

Factory Orders Report The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders Report, often referred to as the Factory Orders Report, contains partly new and partly old information, although the old information is broken down more thoroughly in this release. The report contains the Durable Goods Report information, which is released about one week prior (but with revisions), and introduces non-durable items into the mix, representing industries such as apparel and food products. The Factory Orders Report is meant to capture the overall health of the entire manufacturing sector, measuring new orders, inventories, total shipments and unfilled orders for the month surveyed. Statistics are displayed in current dollars and as percent changes from prior month and prior year. As with the Durable Goods Report, the indicator derives most of its value as a supply/demand indicator; inventory levels can be compared to shipments, new orders and other indicators of consumer demand such as retail sales and gross domestic product (GDP). The Factory Orders Report is more useful than the Durable Goods Report for examining trends within industries. While only "computer equipment" may be counted in the Durable Goods Report, the Factory Orders Report will show separate figures for computer hardware, semiconductors, monitors, etc. This is mainly due to the speed at which the (advance) Durable Goods Report is released, which makes it more timely but also more vague. The report is not likely to move the broad markets, as about half of the data is already known - the ratio of durable to non-durable manufacturing (in dollars) is about 55/45. Factory Orders Report levels are, however, valuable for estimating future economic output levels, as estimates from the Factory Orders Report are used to calculate GDP itself. Non-durables manufacturing industries may move as a group upon the release, as investors in those stocks pour through the data looking for clues on upcoming earnings levels. Because current dollars are used to calculate values, neither inflation nor price - changes that may affect how inventories are valued - is accounted for. For example, if the price of petroleum drops mid-month, a company holding the same inventory levels based on volume will show a drop in the value of its inventory in the Factory Orders Report.

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Consumer Confidence Index The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a monthly release from the Conference Board, a non-profit business group that is highly regarded by investors and the Federal Reserve. CCI is a unique indicator, formed from survey results of more than 5,000 households and designed to gauge the relative financial health, spending power and confidence of the average consumer. There are three separate headline figures: one for how people feel currently (Index of Consumer Sentiment), one for how they feel the general economy is going (Current Economic Conditions), and the third for how they see things in six months' time (Index of Consumer Expectations). The Consumer Sentiment Index is a component of the Conference Board's template of economic indicators. Historically, changes in this index (of the three released) has tracked the leading edge of the business cycle well. There are other sentiment indicators that can sometimes be confused with the Consumer Sentiment report or used in conjunction with it, such as the University of Michigan Sentiment Report, and some investors will try to average the two reports to get their own sense of consumer sentiment. A strong consumer confidence report, especially at a time when the economy is lagging behind estimates, can move the market by making investors more willing to purchase equities. The idea behind consumer confidence is that a happy consumer - one who feels that his or her standard of living is increasing - is more likely to spend more and make bigger purchases, like a new car or home. It is a highly subjective survey, and the results should be interpreted as such. People can grab onto a small situation that garners a lot of mainstream press, such as gas prices, and use that as their basis for overall economic conditions, fair or not. There are no real data sets here, and people are not economists, so they cannot be counted on to realize that, for example, because gas prices may only represent 5% of their expenses, they should not sour their entire economic outlook. Because of its subjective nature and relatively small sample size, most economists will look at moving averages of between three and six months for consumer confidence figures before predicting a major shift in sentiment; some also feel that index level changes of at least five points are necessary before calling for the reversal of an existing trend. In general, however, rising consumer confidence will trend in line with rising retail sales and, personal consumption and expenditures, consumer-driven indicators that relate to spending patterns. Regional breakdowns of the data are valuable for seeing the breadth of sentiment across the country, which can be a useful factor in the real estate market, along with indicators such as housing starts and existing home sales.

Building Permits A type of authorization that must be granted by a government or other regulatory body before the construction of a new or existing building can legally occur. The U.S. census bureau reports the finalized number of the total monthly building permits on the 18th work day of every month. The monthly building permit report is closely watched by economists and investors alike. Since all related factors associated with the construction of a building are important economic activities (for example, financing and employment), the building permit report can give a major hint as to the state of the economy in the near future. UP =>> DOLLAR UP DOWN =>> DOLLAR DOWN

Money supply The money supply is just that: the amount of money floating around the economy and available for spending. Different numerical aggregates show different subsets of money based on their liquidity, starting with M0 (the most liquid), which is just the dollar value of physical cash and coin, and M1, which includes all of M0 as well as checking accounts, traveler's checks and demand deposits. The M2 aggregate includes the dollar value of all of M1 in addition to savings accounts, time deposits of less than $100,000 (such as certificates of deposit), and money market funds held by investors. (For related reading, see What Is Money?) The Federal Reserve publishes data on the levels of M1 and M2 weekly, and has been collecting data on the money supply since the 1950s. In the less financially complicated world that existed then, the supply of money showed a very strong correlation to how much money was spent, and it was therefore studied fervently by economists for clues to economic growth. Legislation passed in 1978 mandated the Federal Reserve to set annual targets for money supply growth. At the time, there was a still a high correlation between money supply growth and overall economic growth, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP). Over time, that close relationship started to break down due to changes in banking accounts, the proliferation of financing companies, and more widespread investment among consumers (stock and bond investments are not captured in M1 and M2 aggregates). When the legislation expired in 2000, the Fed announced that it would no longer set targets for growth of the money supply as a matter of policy, although it remains an important indicator for predicting inflation and spending patterns among consumers. In the words of the Fed, "…the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] believes that the behavior of money and credit will continue to have value for gauging economic and financial conditions." The M2 aggregate is a large component of the Conference Board's U.S. Leading Index (which contains 10 indicators), making up more than 30% of the index. The Federal Reserve has a measure of control over the money supply aggregates, which differentiates this indicator from most others. Through open market operations such as buying and selling Treasuries and setting the reserve requirements, the Fed does things to alter the money supply through its daily course of business. Setting short-term interest rates to guide the economy remains the core policy directive of the FOMC, but changes to rates such as the fed funds rate do eventually manifest themselves in the money supply, albeit with a time lag No single release from the Fed regarding the money supply is going to shock the market; the weekly release schedule alone takes a lot of the surprise factor out mix, so this report will rarely move the markets in the short term. History has shown that the money supply tends to rise faster (accelerate faster) during periods of economic expansion that during contraction periods. If there is one measure that is looked at more than the rest, it's the M2 figure - cash equivalents in this designation are deemed to be collectively liquid enough to be spent without any real delays or penalty costs. While growth in the money supply does not directly indicate future spending growth as it once did, it does indicate that inflation could be around the corner. This is where knowing both money supply growth and GDP growth becomes very handy - if money supply growth is rapidly outpacing economic growth, there will soon be more money chasing after the same amount of goods. This echoes the dryly famous quote: "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." Changes in the money supply are usually quoted in the media on an annualized percentage basis, which helps to smooth out short-term statistical "blips" that can occur week to week.

Business Outlook Survey The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Business Outlook Survey (also known as the Philadelphia Fed Report) is a monthly survey of manufacturing purchasing managers conducting business around the tri-state area of Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware. The survey is conducted in the vein of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report; it questions voluntary participants about their outlook on things such as employment, new orders, shipments, inventories and prices paid. Answers are given in the form of "better", "worse" or "same" as the previous month, and, as with the PMI, results are diffused into an index, only this index uses a median value for expansion of 0, rather than 50. The Philly Fed Report signals expansion when it is above zero and contraction when below. As a result, values can be negative month to month. The survey has been conducted each month since May 1968, and is considered one of the most valuable regional purchasing manager indexes (There are currently almost 15 such regional reports, covering much of the U.S., albeit in piecemeal fashion). As far as regional manufacturing reports go, the Philly Fed Report is one of the most watched, both for its early delivery to investors (released before the month is even over), and its blend of manufacturing sectors and businesses. The Philly Fed Report, along with the Chicago NAPM Index, have shown high correlations to the upcoming and hugely followed PMI report. This index isn't typically a big market mover (due to its small sample size and limited geographic range), but if a big surprise in terms of percentage change appears in the report, quick-thinking investors may anticipate similar changes to the PMI and make market moves accordingly. The report is presented with solid commentary from the Reserve Bank itself, and often includes special survey questions that may be extremely timely if the economy is unsure of future growth possibilities.