Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

AUD USD Approaches Critical Bollinger Band Resistance

AUD/USD, also known as the "Aussie," is a prominent forex pair representing the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar, popular among traders for its liquidity and responsiveness to commodity prices and economic data. Today, traders should closely monitor key economic indicators: Australia's Balance of Trade and Monthly Household Spending Indicator (MHSI), as well as US Jobless Claims, Job Cut Announcements, and Natural Gas Inventories. Positive Australian trade and spending data could strengthen AUD, while better-than-expected US employment figures would bolster USD, influencing the pair’s volatility significantly. Additionally, market participants should pay attention to Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman's speech, as any hawkish indications could further support USD.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the AUD/USD H4 chart, previously the chart was moving along a steady bullish trend; however, recent price action has begun showing signs of consolidation, trading along the Bollinger Bands (60). Currently, the bands have expanded, suggesting potential increased volatility. Given that the price is approaching a critical resistance zone around 0.6607, which aligns with previous highs, the pair could experience selling pressure. If resistance holds and candles retreat, a move toward the middle Bollinger Band at 0.65112 is plausible. Indicators such as Williams %R at -0.62 and the Stochastic oscillator at 99.38, 97.46 indicate overbought conditions, reinforcing the likelihood of a corrective pullback.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

Nikkei H4 technical setup and trendline test

The JAP225 (Nikkei 225), often called the Nikkei or Japan 225 Index, is a leading Japanese equity benchmark widely traded in the forex and index CFD markets as the JPY-correlated JAP225 pair. As traders position for both equity momentum and currency-driven volatility, the index frequently reflects shifts in global risk sentiment and Bank of Japan policy expectations. Today’s fundamental outlook for JAP225 is shaped by a dense cluster of USD-sensitive labor-market releases—NFIB Small Business Index, ADP weekly employment estimates, and two JOLTS job-openings releases due to prior delays—which collectively act as key leading indicators for U.S. economic momentum and inflation pressure. Stronger-than-forecast U.S. labor metrics typically lift USD strength, potentially weighing on risk assets like JAP225, while weaker data cools expectations for rate hikes and supports equities. Meanwhile, Japan’s Machine Tool Orders and BOJ Governor Ueda’s speech today could introduce JPY volatility; any hawkish tone from Ueda or improving domestic manufacturing orders may boost JPY, creating downward pressure on JAP225 in forex-linked flows. Overall, today’s mix of high-impact U.S. jobs data and BOJ-related commentary positions the index for elevated volatility on both fundamental and policy fronts.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
On the H4 chart, the price has been moving in a slight bearish descending-channel structure after a sharp and extended bullish trend, yet the recent candles show that the price has reacted strongly to the long-term support line that has been tested multiple times before. The price is currently hovering around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which aligns closely with the Bollinger Bands middle band, suggesting equilibrium before a potential breakout. The support zone is positioned near the lower Bollinger Band, reinforcing demand in this region, and the red ascending trendline shows buyers attempting to push price upward toward the channel resistance. Additionally, the %R(14) at -35.49 indicates moderately bullish momentum without being overbought, supporting the possibility of a continuation toward the 0.618 retracement at 51039 if the breakout succeeds. However, rejection from the descending-channel resistance may trigger another corrective wave back toward 49500–48500, making this zone pivotal for the next price action move on the JAP225 H4 daily chart technical analysis.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

USD CAD H4 Chart Strong Resistance Breakdown Possible

The USD/CAD, often referred to as the "Loonie," is a highly liquid currency pair reflecting the economic dynamics between the United States and Canada. As the market anticipates today's fundamental news, key events include the release of the New York Manufacturing Index and speeches by Federal Reserve officials, both expected to lend strength to USD if outcomes are hawkish. Conversely, Canada awaits significant CPI data and housing starts, which could influence CAD strength positively if actual results surpass forecasts. These events make USD/CAD pivotal for forex traders assessing daily price action based on robust technical and fundamental analysis.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the USD/CAD H4 chart, the market has begun a sharp bearish momentum marked by significant downward movements with brief bullish corrections. Currently, the price action indicates a minor bullish correction phase, yet the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.38442 appears distant given the recent shallow corrective patterns. The bearish force seems robust enough to challenge and potentially break the longstanding historical support zone at around 1.37500. Technical indicators support bearish momentum: the Stochastic indicator stands at 22.26 and 16.13, signaling an oversold market nearing bearish exhaustion but still without confirmed bullish signals. Similarly, the RSI at 33.17 indicates strong selling pressure. The Ichimoku Cloud, spanning levels from 1.37727 to 1.39491, reinforces bearish sentiment as prices remain decisively below the cloud.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

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