Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

AUD USD Approaches Critical Bollinger Band Resistance

AUD/USD, also known as the "Aussie," is a prominent forex pair representing the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar, popular among traders for its liquidity and responsiveness to commodity prices and economic data. Today, traders should closely monitor key economic indicators: Australia's Balance of Trade and Monthly Household Spending Indicator (MHSI), as well as US Jobless Claims, Job Cut Announcements, and Natural Gas Inventories. Positive Australian trade and spending data could strengthen AUD, while better-than-expected US employment figures would bolster USD, influencing the pair’s volatility significantly. Additionally, market participants should pay attention to Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman's speech, as any hawkish indications could further support USD.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the AUD/USD H4 chart, previously the chart was moving along a steady bullish trend; however, recent price action has begun showing signs of consolidation, trading along the Bollinger Bands (60). Currently, the bands have expanded, suggesting potential increased volatility. Given that the price is approaching a critical resistance zone around 0.6607, which aligns with previous highs, the pair could experience selling pressure. If resistance holds and candles retreat, a move toward the middle Bollinger Band at 0.65112 is plausible. Indicators such as Williams %R at -0.62 and the Stochastic oscillator at 99.38, 97.46 indicate overbought conditions, reinforcing the likelihood of a corrective pullback.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

Nikkei H4 technical setup and trendline test

The JAP225 (Nikkei 225), often called the Nikkei or Japan 225 Index, is a leading Japanese equity benchmark widely traded in the forex and index CFD markets as the JPY-correlated JAP225 pair. As traders position for both equity momentum and currency-driven volatility, the index frequently reflects shifts in global risk sentiment and Bank of Japan policy expectations. Today’s fundamental outlook for JAP225 is shaped by a dense cluster of USD-sensitive labor-market releases—NFIB Small Business Index, ADP weekly employment estimates, and two JOLTS job-openings releases due to prior delays—which collectively act as key leading indicators for U.S. economic momentum and inflation pressure. Stronger-than-forecast U.S. labor metrics typically lift USD strength, potentially weighing on risk assets like JAP225, while weaker data cools expectations for rate hikes and supports equities. Meanwhile, Japan’s Machine Tool Orders and BOJ Governor Ueda’s speech today could introduce JPY volatility; any hawkish tone from Ueda or improving domestic manufacturing orders may boost JPY, creating downward pressure on JAP225 in forex-linked flows. Overall, today’s mix of high-impact U.S. jobs data and BOJ-related commentary positions the index for elevated volatility on both fundamental and policy fronts.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
On the H4 chart, the price has been moving in a slight bearish descending-channel structure after a sharp and extended bullish trend, yet the recent candles show that the price has reacted strongly to the long-term support line that has been tested multiple times before. The price is currently hovering around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which aligns closely with the Bollinger Bands middle band, suggesting equilibrium before a potential breakout. The support zone is positioned near the lower Bollinger Band, reinforcing demand in this region, and the red ascending trendline shows buyers attempting to push price upward toward the channel resistance. Additionally, the %R(14) at -35.49 indicates moderately bullish momentum without being overbought, supporting the possibility of a continuation toward the 0.618 retracement at 51039 if the breakout succeeds. However, rejection from the descending-channel resistance may trigger another corrective wave back toward 49500–48500, making this zone pivotal for the next price action move on the JAP225 H4 daily chart technical analysis.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore