Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

USDCAD Price Analysis and Movement Outlook

Based on the upcoming economic events, the USDCAD pair, nicknamed the "Loonie" due to the Canadian one-dollar coin featuring a loon, is poised for a volatile day. The fundamental outlook is complex as multiple high-impact US data releases clash with a single, but significant, Canadian GDP report. With Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's speech on monetary policy, the US dollar's strength will be heavily influenced by any hawkish remarks about interest rates and inflation containment, particularly ahead of the US Core PCE price index release - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. A higher-than-forecast Core PCE, coupled with positive readings from other reports like Personal Income and Expenditures, the Chicago PMI, and UoM consumer sentiment, could signal a resilient US economy, providing strong bullish momentum for the USD. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected Canadian GDP figure would further disadvantage the Canadian dollar, potentially reinforcing the bullish USD/CAD forex trend. Traders will be closely monitoring these releases for price action clues on the USD CAD daily chart technical analysis.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The USD/CAD H4 live chart technical analysis today shows the pair is in a long-term slightly bullish trend, but has recently experienced a short-term bearish correction. The Loonie price has moved from around 1.39250 to 1.37400 over the last six days. However, recent price action suggests a potential reversal as the last two candles have corrected upward after touching a key support level, which is highlighted by a red box. This support level will be a crucial point to watch for traders. A significant challenge for the bulls is the bearish trend line, which is acting as the first resistance. A breakout above this trend line and the red rectangle would be a bullish signal and a key confirmation of a sustained upward move. The price is also trading below the red Ichimoku cloud, which has expanded and whose bands are moving downward, signaling a strong bearish sentiment in the short-term forex trend. Additionally, the Williams %R 14 indicator is at -90.02, which indicates that the pair is significantly oversold, and supports the possibility of an upward correction or a trend reversal. Traders should look for a break of the bearish trend line and the Ichimoku cloud to confirm a new bullish price action. 

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

AUD USD price action chart outlook

The AUD/USD, also known by traders as the “Aussie”, is one of the most actively traded currency pairs in the forex market, often influenced by commodity prices and risk sentiment. Today’s focus on the AUDUSD pair comes as Australia releases several high-impact indicators including the Melbourne Institute CPI, ANZ job advertisements, building approvals, corporate profits, and the RBA commodity price index, while in the U.S., markets remain quiet due to the Labor Day holiday. Fundamentally, stronger-than-expected CPI and building approvals would boost the Aussie as they reflect underlying inflationary pressures and construction sector growth, while an uptick in corporate profits and commodity prices would further strengthen the outlook by signaling resilience in domestic demand and trade balance. However, thin U.S. liquidity due to the holiday could result in irregular volatility, meaning traders should be cautious of sudden price swings despite the broadly supportive Australian data backdrop.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
On the AUD/USD H4 chart technical analysis, the price is moving on a bullish short-term trend, with the last two bullish candles testing the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level near 0.6547, which aligns with the long-term bearish descending trend line. Despite this recovery, the price action is still fluctuating between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zones, suggesting consolidation within a broader range. The Ichimoku Cloud is positioned below the candles, turning green with widening structure, while the Leading Span A is moving upward, reinforcing bullish sentiment. Momentum is also supported by the %R (14) at -2.78, indicating the pair is near overbought territory, yet still showing strong bullish pressure. Overall, AUD-USD price action suggests short-term upside potential, but traders should monitor the 0.6547–0.6560 resistance area closely as a decisive break above it could open the door toward 0.6580, while rejection may pull the pair back into the consolidation zone.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

Sideways Trend Dominates USDJPY H4 Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY forex pair, often referred to as the "Gopher," represents the US dollar against the Japanese yen and is one of the most widely traded currency pairs globally due to its liquidity and volatility. Today's fundamental outlook for USD/JPY centers on key upcoming economic indicators. For the US dollar, traders are closely monitoring the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing PMI and Manufacturing Prices Paid data, alongside Construction Spending and Consumer Confidence reports. A PMI reading above 50 will signal economic expansion, potentially bolstering the USD, while increased Manufacturing Prices Paid could imply rising inflation pressures, which might strengthen the dollar further. On the Japanese yen side, the monetary base data released by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) auction results will influence investor sentiment. An increase in monetary base suggests accommodative monetary policy, possibly weakening the yen, whereas the JGB auction yield and bid-to-cover ratio could provide insights into market sentiment and future monetary policy direction.
 

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the USD/JPY H4 chart, the market has recently entered a sideways price action trend, consistently bouncing between the Bollinger Band extremes. Whenever price action has touched either side of the Bollinger Bands, it has rebounded toward the opposite end. With the Bollinger Bands having narrowed recently, they are now expected to expand, indicating an upcoming period of volatility. The RSI indicator has been hovering between the 55.17 and 42.44 levels, suggesting neutral momentum and reinforcing the likelihood of continued sideways trading. The Stochastic Oscillator displays the %K line at 55.18 and the %D line at 66.98, indicating the potential for short-term fluctuations but no definitive breakout signal. Traders should anticipate ongoing consolidation within the identified range until fundamental news provides a clear directional catalyst.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

EUR/USD H4 chart symmetrical triangle breakout watch

The EUR/USD currency pair, also known as the “Fiber”, is the most traded forex pair in the world, representing the euro against the US dollar. As the benchmark for global forex markets, EUR-USD often reflects the relative economic health of the Eurozone and the United States, making it highly sensitive to macroeconomic data and central bank policy statements.
From a fundamental perspective, today’s EUR/USD price action will likely be influenced by key Eurozone data releases including S&P Global Services PMI and Producer Price Index (PPI), alongside remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde at the ESRB Conference in Frankfurt. Stronger-than-expected PMI readings above the 50 expansion threshold could support the euro, signaling improving business activity. Meanwhile, Lagarde’s tone on monetary policy could introduce volatility, especially if she leans hawkish amid inflationary concerns. On the US side, the dollar awaits market-moving events such as the JOLTS job openings report, factory orders, and speeches by Fed officials Alberto Musalem and Neel Kashkari. Hawkish Fed commentary or stronger labor and manufacturing data could strengthen the dollar, potentially limiting euro gains. The balance between Eurozone PMI resilience and Fed rate expectations will likely dictate the short-term EURUSD trend.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
On the technical analysis side, the EUR USD H4 chart shows the price moving within a symmetrical triangle pattern, squeezed between a bearish descending trendline and a bullish ascending trendline. The bullish trendline, which has acted as a support level multiple times, once again held as the price bounced back upward after testing it. The last candlestick is entering the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting a zone of consolidation and potential indecision, while the previous three candles form a Three Inside Down bearish pattern, hinting at possible downside pressure. The Ichimoku Leading Span B is moving horizontally, signaling a lack of strong momentum in either direction. Resistance remains around 1.1700, a key level that traders are watching closely. Meanwhile, the Williams %R indicator at -77.94 shows the pair approaching oversold territory as the plot moves downward toward -80, suggesting potential for a rebound if selling pressure eases. Price action traders will likely monitor whether EUR/USD can break above the triangle resistance or fall below the ascending trendline support to confirm the next directional move. 

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

USDCAD chart outlook with NFP impact

The USD/CAD, often referred to as the “Loonie,” is one of the most actively traded forex pairs, reflecting the economic strength of the United States and Canada. Today’s market sentiment is largely driven by critical U.S. data releases, including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings, as well as Canadian employment and labor data. A stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market report would reinforce expectations of Federal Reserve hawkishness, especially with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaking later today, which could boost the U.S. Dollar. On the other hand, robust Canadian employment data could strengthen the CAD and put downside pressure on USDCAD. Given that both countries are releasing labor market indicators today, volatility and sharp price action are highly likely, making this session crucial for traders focusing on the USD CAD daily chart, fundamental analysis, and forex price action strategies.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
From the technical perspective on the USD/CAD H4 chart, the price has been correcting after a strong bearish trend line but has recently shifted into a bullish structure. It bounced from the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which acted as a powerful support zone, and has already broken above the 0.618 level, currently trading near the 0.786 retracement. This area aligns with the Ichimoku Cloud’s upper band (Leading Span B), creating a significant resistance zone near 1.3816–1.3851. If price sustains momentum above this level, it could retest the 1.38799 Fibonacci extension resistance. However, the Ichimoku Cloud shows mixed signals: the Span B is flat, while Span A is rising with a thick cloud, suggesting consolidation risk. Meanwhile, the %R (14) at -39.07 is pointing sharply downward, hinting at potential short-term weakness before a new bullish attempt. Traders should closely watch whether price can hold above the 1.3815–1.3850 resistance zone to validate a continuation toward 1.3880 and beyond.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

USDCHF H4 Chart Indicates Potential Short-term Consolidation

USD/CHF, commonly known as the "Swissie," represents the pairing of the U.S. dollar and Swiss franc, reflecting economic interactions between the United States and Switzerland. The Swissie is particularly influenced by risk sentiment due to Switzerland's status as a global financial haven. Fundamentally, today's key news events will include SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel’s speech titled "Future-proofing central banks," which traders will closely monitor for monetary policy insights; a hawkish tone could strengthen the CHF. On the USD side, the NFIB Small Business Index data release will be critical, as a higher-than-expected index reading typically supports the dollar by signaling robust economic conditions for small businesses in the U.S. Additionally, the weekly American Petroleum Institute (API) data may influence short-term sentiment around the USD.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Technically analyzing the USD/CHF H4 chart, the overall market trend remains bearish, with recent price action forming a corrective side market. Candlesticks attempted a bullish reversal reaching up to the 0.81646 level but failed to surpass this resistance. Currently, price action is testing a critical support zone at around 0.79190, a level previously tested but unbroken. Given the strong bearish momentum, it appears unlikely that the market will breach this support level immediately. However, a break below could target the Fibonacci extension level at 0.236 as the next significant support area. Stochastic indicators reinforce this scenario, with the %K line at 2.91 and %D line at 5.24, signaling oversold conditions and potential short-term consolidation or reversal. Additionally, MACD indicators reveal bearish sentiment, with the histogram at -0.00098, MACD line at -0.00258, and the signal line at -0.000160, reinforcing the downward price momentum.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

Technical Triangle Signals Bullish Momentum for S&P500

The S&P 500 Index, widely known as "SPX" or simply the "S&P," represents the 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., and is a primary benchmark for U.S. equities. Fundamental analysis indicates that today's release of significant U.S. economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and initial jobless claims, may impact market sentiment. A stronger-than-forecast CPI, particularly the Core CPI excluding food and energy, could signal potential tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, leading to increased volatility and influencing investor behavior in equities, especially the S&P500. Conversely, if jobless claims come in below expectations, it would reflect economic strength, possibly bolstering confidence and investor risk appetite, positively affecting the S&P500's price action.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the uploaded S&P500 H4 chart, the candles recently have created a classic triangle pattern with ascending lows, indicating a positive pulse in its current bullish trend. Now that the candles have broken the upper resistance line of the triangle, the next anticipated target for this bullish momentum could be around the resistance level at 6770.12. However, should the price action reverse, the support level at 6400.44, where candles previously found strong buying pressure, could become a key target. Examining the indicators, the Stochastic oscillator shows the K% line at 69.91 and the D% line at 68.85, suggesting room for further upward momentum before reaching an overbought territory. The MACD histogram at 0.67, with the MACD line at 15.05 above the signal line at 14.37, corroborates the bullish scenario. Additionally, the recent candles are trading above the moving average, reinforcing the bullish bias.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

XAU/USD chart trend and forex analysis

XAU/USD, also known as “Gold” or “GOLDUSD,” is one of the most traded safe-haven assets in the forex and commodities market. Gold is highly sensitive to US Dollar movements, inflation expectations, and overall market sentiment, making it a crucial pair for daily chart technical and fundamental analysis. From a fundamental perspective, traders today are closely watching the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations data, which historically have a strong influence on USD price action. Higher-than-expected confidence or inflation readings would strengthen the US Dollar and put pressure on Gold prices, while weaker results could support bullish momentum for XAU/USD. Since consumer confidence drives household spending and inflation expectations guide future wage and monetary policy dynamics, today’s news release has the potential to create notable volatility in Gold’s short-term price action.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
On the XAU/USD H4 chart, the price is consolidating inside a rectangle with a flat lower boundary after recording a new all-time high on September 9th. The asset has shifted from the upper regression channel to the lower zone, with a Pearson’s R of 0.9767, confirming the strength of the trend correlation. After touching the lower band of the regression channel and the rectangle’s flat base, Gold has shown signs of recovery, forming three green candles out of the last four. Currently, the candles remain above the Ichimoku Cloud, with the last three candles moving along the conversion line, while the green cloud continues its upward slope, signaling bullish momentum. The candles are trading between the Ichimoku baseline (below price) and the lagging span (above price), reinforcing a supportive technical structure. Meanwhile, the %R oscillator sits at -49.92, reflecting neutral momentum with potential for continuation either side, though the price action leans slightly bullish after the recent corrective move.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

Bitcoin versus US Dollar chart forecast

Bitcoin, often referred to as "digital gold" or simply BTC, paired with the US Dollar (BTC/USD), is one of the most traded and analyzed currency pairs in the forex and crypto markets. This pair reflects the performance of the world’s leading cryptocurrency against the world’s reserve currency, making it a key benchmark for traders tracking both digital assets and traditional markets.
From a fundamental perspective, today’s upcoming release of the New York Manufacturing Index could weigh on USD sentiment. A stronger-than-expected reading would support the US Dollar, potentially applying downside pressure on BTC/USD as dollar demand rises. Conversely, weaker data would signal economic softness, prompting traders to price in more dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve, which may boost Bitcoin’s appeal as an alternative store of value. Given the anticipation around today’s release, traders should watch for heightened volatility in the BTC/USD pair as fundamental forces interact with current technical positioning.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
From a technical perspective on the BTC/USD H4 chart, the price is currently moving in an ascending trendline after previous corrections and a sharp descending phase that retraced to the 0.236 Fibonacci level. Since then, Bitcoin has established bullish momentum, with price action now trading above the Ichimoku green cloud and recently testing the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level as the new week opens. The latest candles are forming above both the base line (Kijun-sen) and conversion line (Tenkan-sen), with the new candle opening strongly above both indicators and the cloud, reinforcing bullish bias. On the MACD indicator, the MACD line (1003.55) is positioned above the signal line (876.86), showing continued momentum in favor of buyers. Together, these signals indicate that BTC/USD maintains a bullish setup in the short term, but traders should remain cautious around key Fibonacci resistance levels and incoming USD data that could trigger short-lived volatility.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

EURGBP H4 Trading Strategy and Price Action Forecast

The EUR/GBP forex pair, also popularly known as "Chunnel," represents the Euro against the British Pound and is a significant indicator of the economic relationship between the Eurozone and the United Kingdom. Today's upcoming economic news highlights the ZEW Economic Sentiment from Germany and Eurozone industrial production figures, providing critical insights into investor confidence and manufacturing health in the Euro area. Positive outcomes in these reports could potentially strengthen the Euro against the Pound. Meanwhile, the British Pound faces pivotal labor market data releases, including average earnings, claimant count, and unemployment rate figures from the Office for National Statistics. Favorable UK labor statistics could lend strength to GBP, making today's session highly volatile and pivotal for EUR/GBP price action.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the EUR GBP H4 chart, the price is currently in an uptrend movement, testing a crucial support level. If bullish momentum sustains, the immediate resistance line ahead is likely the first target, followed by the latest swing high as the second target. The Bollinger Bands indicate the price is currently wrestling with the middle band, which serves as a dynamic moving average, placing the pair slightly below it—an indicator of potential consolidation or downward pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around the neutral 50 mark, indicating market indecision. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator currently shows a weakening bearish sentiment, suggesting the possibility of a bullish crossover soon if the price maintains support levels. Traders should closely monitor price action at these critical levels to confirm potential breakout or reversal signals.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

AUD/CAD Consolidates Near Key Levels

The AUD/CAD forex pair represents the Australian Dollar against the Canadian Dollar, reflecting the economic interplay between two resource-driven economies heavily influenced by commodities and global demand. On the Australian side, traders are watching the Melbourne Institute’s Leading Index, which tracks shifts in consumer confidence, housing, and commodity prices, though its muted impact stems from reliance on previously released data. More attention, however, is on RBA Assistant Governor Brad Jones, who is scheduled to participate in a fireside chat on "The Future of Money," where any hawkish signals could support the Aussie. Meanwhile, Canada’s focus lies on foreign securities purchases data, a key measure of international capital inflows, and upcoming Bank of Canada events, including its interest rate decision and policy statement later this month. With both central banks in the spotlight and commodities driving sentiment, today’s session could see heightened volatility in AUD-CAD as traders weigh shifts in economic outlook and monetary policy direction.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the AUD/CAD H4 chart, the pair recently pulled back from its highs around 0.9220 and is now consolidating near the 0.9180 level. The Ichimoku Cloud shows that price is still trading above the Kumo, reflecting an overall bullish structure, though momentum is being tested as candles hover close to the conversion and base lines. A sustained move above the blue Tenkan-sen could reignite bullish momentum, with resistance at the 0.9200–0.9220 zone as the immediate upside target. On the downside, a break below the red Kijun-sen may expose the top of the cloud around 0.9150 as the next key support. The RSI is sitting near 52, just above the neutral 50 level, highlighting market indecision and signaling that neither bulls nor bears have firm control. Traders should monitor whether AUDCAD holds above the Ichimoku support zone for a potential continuation higher, or whether weakening momentum leads to a deeper correction into the cloud.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

Technical Indicators Suggest Gold Price Correction Incoming

XAU/USD, commonly known as Gold, is among the most traded forex pairs in the financial markets, renowned as a safe-haven asset especially during periods of economic uncertainty. Today, traders are closely watching several key economic indicators from the United States, including Initial Jobless Claims, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the Conference Board Leading Index, EIA Natural Gas Storage, and TIC Net Long-term Transactions. Stronger-than-expected data in these areas could bolster the USD, potentially weighing on gold prices. Conversely, weaker economic indicators could enhance Gold's appeal as a safe haven, pushing XAU/USD higher.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the XAU/USD 4-hour chart, the pair has been trending bullishly, consistently setting higher highs and higher lows. However, a negative regular divergence has emerged in recent candles, signaling a potential reversal which has already begun. With key support identified at the level of 3634.52, the price action could see a pullback to this area. Conversely, bullish momentum recovery might lead prices toward the resistance level at 3699.04. The MACD indicator currently shows a bearish sentiment with the histogram at -2.05, the MACD line at -0.98, and the signal line at 1.08, suggesting weakening bullish momentum. The Stochastic indicator with K% at 35.07 and D% at 44.19 indicates an oversold market condition, possibly foreshadowing a near-term reversal upward. Bollinger Bands have expanded, reflecting increased market volatility, implying potential sharp price movements ahead.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

JAP 225 MACD Divergence Suggests Imminent Price Correction

The Nikkei 225 (JAP 225), often simply called the Nikkei, represents the Japanese stock market and is frequently paired with the Japanese Yen (JPY) in forex trading. Known among traders as "JAP 225," it provides insight into Japan's economic health. Fundamental analysis today highlights significant upcoming Japanese news: the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), Interest Rate Decision, and Monetary Policy Statement by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Traders anticipate the Core CPI, excluding fresh food, as an inflation indicator that may influence BOJ monetary policy adjustments. With the BOJ Interest Rate Decision and policy statements closely watched, any hawkish stance or upward adjustment in rates could potentially strengthen the JPY, impacting the JAP 225 pair significantly.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the provided H4 chart for JAP 225, the price currently resides within an ascending channel, recently touching the upper channel boundary, indicating a potential correction. The price's proximity to the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement level further strengthens the likelihood of a corrective move downward. Indicators support this corrective view, as the MACD shows a negative regular divergence, suggesting diminishing bullish momentum. Simultaneously, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions, implying an impending bearish reversal or pullback. Price could potentially retrace to the ascending trend line or previous highs, emphasizing cautious bullishness in the short term.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore