Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

USDCAD Price Analysis and Movement Outlook

Based on the upcoming economic events, the USDCAD pair, nicknamed the "Loonie" due to the Canadian one-dollar coin featuring a loon, is poised for a volatile day. The fundamental outlook is complex as multiple high-impact US data releases clash with a single, but significant, Canadian GDP report. With Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's speech on monetary policy, the US dollar's strength will be heavily influenced by any hawkish remarks about interest rates and inflation containment, particularly ahead of the US Core PCE price index release - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. A higher-than-forecast Core PCE, coupled with positive readings from other reports like Personal Income and Expenditures, the Chicago PMI, and UoM consumer sentiment, could signal a resilient US economy, providing strong bullish momentum for the USD. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected Canadian GDP figure would further disadvantage the Canadian dollar, potentially reinforcing the bullish USD/CAD forex trend. Traders will be closely monitoring these releases for price action clues on the USD CAD daily chart technical analysis.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The USD/CAD H4 live chart technical analysis today shows the pair is in a long-term slightly bullish trend, but has recently experienced a short-term bearish correction. The Loonie price has moved from around 1.39250 to 1.37400 over the last six days. However, recent price action suggests a potential reversal as the last two candles have corrected upward after touching a key support level, which is highlighted by a red box. This support level will be a crucial point to watch for traders. A significant challenge for the bulls is the bearish trend line, which is acting as the first resistance. A breakout above this trend line and the red rectangle would be a bullish signal and a key confirmation of a sustained upward move. The price is also trading below the red Ichimoku cloud, which has expanded and whose bands are moving downward, signaling a strong bearish sentiment in the short-term forex trend. Additionally, the Williams %R 14 indicator is at -90.02, which indicates that the pair is significantly oversold, and supports the possibility of an upward correction or a trend reversal. Traders should look for a break of the bearish trend line and the Ichimoku cloud to confirm a new bullish price action. 

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

AUD USD price action chart outlook

The AUD/USD, also known by traders as the “Aussie”, is one of the most actively traded currency pairs in the forex market, often influenced by commodity prices and risk sentiment. Today’s focus on the AUDUSD pair comes as Australia releases several high-impact indicators including the Melbourne Institute CPI, ANZ job advertisements, building approvals, corporate profits, and the RBA commodity price index, while in the U.S., markets remain quiet due to the Labor Day holiday. Fundamentally, stronger-than-expected CPI and building approvals would boost the Aussie as they reflect underlying inflationary pressures and construction sector growth, while an uptick in corporate profits and commodity prices would further strengthen the outlook by signaling resilience in domestic demand and trade balance. However, thin U.S. liquidity due to the holiday could result in irregular volatility, meaning traders should be cautious of sudden price swings despite the broadly supportive Australian data backdrop.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
On the AUD/USD H4 chart technical analysis, the price is moving on a bullish short-term trend, with the last two bullish candles testing the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level near 0.6547, which aligns with the long-term bearish descending trend line. Despite this recovery, the price action is still fluctuating between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zones, suggesting consolidation within a broader range. The Ichimoku Cloud is positioned below the candles, turning green with widening structure, while the Leading Span A is moving upward, reinforcing bullish sentiment. Momentum is also supported by the %R (14) at -2.78, indicating the pair is near overbought territory, yet still showing strong bullish pressure. Overall, AUD-USD price action suggests short-term upside potential, but traders should monitor the 0.6547–0.6560 resistance area closely as a decisive break above it could open the door toward 0.6580, while rejection may pull the pair back into the consolidation zone.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

Sideways Trend Dominates USDJPY H4 Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY forex pair, often referred to as the "Gopher," represents the US dollar against the Japanese yen and is one of the most widely traded currency pairs globally due to its liquidity and volatility. Today's fundamental outlook for USD/JPY centers on key upcoming economic indicators. For the US dollar, traders are closely monitoring the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing PMI and Manufacturing Prices Paid data, alongside Construction Spending and Consumer Confidence reports. A PMI reading above 50 will signal economic expansion, potentially bolstering the USD, while increased Manufacturing Prices Paid could imply rising inflation pressures, which might strengthen the dollar further. On the Japanese yen side, the monetary base data released by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) auction results will influence investor sentiment. An increase in monetary base suggests accommodative monetary policy, possibly weakening the yen, whereas the JGB auction yield and bid-to-cover ratio could provide insights into market sentiment and future monetary policy direction.
 

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the USD/JPY H4 chart, the market has recently entered a sideways price action trend, consistently bouncing between the Bollinger Band extremes. Whenever price action has touched either side of the Bollinger Bands, it has rebounded toward the opposite end. With the Bollinger Bands having narrowed recently, they are now expected to expand, indicating an upcoming period of volatility. The RSI indicator has been hovering between the 55.17 and 42.44 levels, suggesting neutral momentum and reinforcing the likelihood of continued sideways trading. The Stochastic Oscillator displays the %K line at 55.18 and the %D line at 66.98, indicating the potential for short-term fluctuations but no definitive breakout signal. Traders should anticipate ongoing consolidation within the identified range until fundamental news provides a clear directional catalyst.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

EUR/USD H4 chart symmetrical triangle breakout watch

The EUR/USD currency pair, also known as the “Fiber”, is the most traded forex pair in the world, representing the euro against the US dollar. As the benchmark for global forex markets, EUR-USD often reflects the relative economic health of the Eurozone and the United States, making it highly sensitive to macroeconomic data and central bank policy statements.
From a fundamental perspective, today’s EUR/USD price action will likely be influenced by key Eurozone data releases including S&P Global Services PMI and Producer Price Index (PPI), alongside remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde at the ESRB Conference in Frankfurt. Stronger-than-expected PMI readings above the 50 expansion threshold could support the euro, signaling improving business activity. Meanwhile, Lagarde’s tone on monetary policy could introduce volatility, especially if she leans hawkish amid inflationary concerns. On the US side, the dollar awaits market-moving events such as the JOLTS job openings report, factory orders, and speeches by Fed officials Alberto Musalem and Neel Kashkari. Hawkish Fed commentary or stronger labor and manufacturing data could strengthen the dollar, potentially limiting euro gains. The balance between Eurozone PMI resilience and Fed rate expectations will likely dictate the short-term EURUSD trend.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
On the technical analysis side, the EUR USD H4 chart shows the price moving within a symmetrical triangle pattern, squeezed between a bearish descending trendline and a bullish ascending trendline. The bullish trendline, which has acted as a support level multiple times, once again held as the price bounced back upward after testing it. The last candlestick is entering the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting a zone of consolidation and potential indecision, while the previous three candles form a Three Inside Down bearish pattern, hinting at possible downside pressure. The Ichimoku Leading Span B is moving horizontally, signaling a lack of strong momentum in either direction. Resistance remains around 1.1700, a key level that traders are watching closely. Meanwhile, the Williams %R indicator at -77.94 shows the pair approaching oversold territory as the plot moves downward toward -80, suggesting potential for a rebound if selling pressure eases. Price action traders will likely monitor whether EUR/USD can break above the triangle resistance or fall below the ascending trendline support to confirm the next directional move. 

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore