Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

S&P 500 Price Action Targets Upper Bollinger Band

The US500, widely known as the S&P 500, is a key forex pair representing the strength and economic health of the United States, often referred to by traders as "SPX" or "S&P." Today, the index faces significant fundamental influences from several critical economic indicators, including Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, and speeches from influential Federal Reserve officials like John Williams and Adriana Kugler. Hawkish commentary from these speakers would typically bolster the USD, indirectly affecting the S&P 500 due to shifts in monetary policy expectations. Positive retail sales data and lower-than-expected jobless claims will likely support bullish market sentiment, reflecting increased consumer spending and robust employment conditions, respectively, further contributing to optimism surrounding the S&P 500.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the technical outlook of the S&P 500 H4 chart reveals that after breaking above the 6112 resistance level, the price has entered into a sideways consolidation phase. Currently, the price struggles with the midline of both the Bollinger Bands and the horizontal channel. Given the preceding bullish movement, the technical bias suggests a higher probability of the price action continuing its upward trajectory rather than reversing. The immediate price action target lies at the upper Bollinger Band, coinciding with the upper boundary of the consolidation channel. The Bollinger Bands indicate potential volatility expansion, while the MACD histogram approaching neutrality reflects indecision and consolidation. Additionally, the Stochastic indicator, rising from oversold territory, signals a possible bullish continuation, supporting the expectation of further upward price action.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

EUR/USD Correction Phase and Fibonacci Retracement Levels

The EURUSD currency pair, often nicknamed the "Fiber," is the most widely traded forex pair globally, representing the Eurozone's euro against the United States dollar. Today's fundamental outlook for EUR-USD is influenced by significant upcoming events, including the US Treasury International Capital (TIC) data, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's speech, US building permits, housing starts, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations surveys. Stronger-than-expected TIC and housing data could strengthen the USD, while a hawkish tone from Waller's speech could further support dollar strength. Conversely, the euro is affected by the European Producer Price Index (PPI), Eurozone Current Account data, and crucial speeches from ECB officials at the G20 meeting. Hawkish comments or higher-than-expected economic indicators from the Eurozone would provide bullish momentum for the euro.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the EUR/USD H4 technical chart reveals the pair entered a corrective phase after a significant bullish price action. Currently, EUR vs. USD is testing a crucial support zone near the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, making this area a key battleground for buyers and sellers. The appearance of long lower candle shadows suggests price instability and possible bullish rejection at these levels. However, as long as price action remains beneath the descending resistance trendline, the correction phase could extend further downward. The stochastic oscillator indicates an oversold condition, signaling potential bullish momentum soon, while the Williams %R indicator confirms an oversold scenario, suggesting a potential bounce back if buyers re-emerge.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

GOLD/USD Price Action Consolidates Before Breakout

XAU/USD, also known as "Gold," is a key safe-haven asset in the forex market, often sought during times of economic uncertainty and inflationary pressure. As a non-yielding commodity, it moves inversely to the US Dollar and interest rate expectations. Today, traders are eyeing the US Conference Board Leading Economic Index (CB LEI), which, while typically having a muted impact due to prior component releases, still provides insights into overall economic momentum. A better-than-expected reading could strengthen the USD, applying downward pressure on gold prices, while a weaker print may offer bullish support to gold. With no other high-impact US data due, market participants will be focusing on technical levels and potential breakout setups on the GOLD/USD chart. As gold remains sensitive to macroeconomic indicators, even mild surprises from this report could act as a short-term catalyst.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Technically, XAU/USD is trading within a symmetrical triangle on the H4 chart, with the upper boundary descending from May 7th and the ascending support line starting from May 15th. Price is nearing the triangle apex, signaling a potential breakout. Although the long-term trend remains bullish, the short-term action has been consolidative with a slightly bearish tilt. The last three red candles are heading toward the upper Ichimoku cloud, while the cloud’s lower band is flat, showing neutral momentum. Candles are still positioned above the cloud, maintaining a bullish structure. Price is also trapped between the 0.786 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels, indicating strong resistance and support zones. The Connors RSI at 28.34 suggests an oversold condition, possibly hinting at a short-term bounce or reversal if bulls regain control.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore