HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 5th March 2026.

EURJPY Under Pressure as Yen Gains Safe-Haven Demand.
 

The global currency market today witnessed significant turmoil in the EURJPY pair. Trading above 182.00, the pair recorded a daily decline of 0.24%. Although the euro has strengthened 14.19% cumulatively over the past 12 months against the yen, short-term momentum is showing signs of exhaustion, with a correction of 1.83% over the past four weeks.

This movement reflects the tug-of-war between strong domestic economic data in Europe and the yen's role as a safe-haven amidst escalating conflicts in the Middle East.
 

European Economic Resilience and the Challenge of Disinflation

In the Eurozone, recent economic data has provided complex mixed signals for the European Central Bank (ECB). Germany, the region's economic engine, performed solidly, with the HCOB Services PMI surging to 53.5 in February. Collectively, the Eurozone composite index reached a three-month high, signaling a faster-than-expected output acceleration at the start of the year.

However, this growth was accompanied by a return of inflationary pressures. Core HICP data surged to 2.4% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and the previous month's figure. This condition has forced market participants to drastically revise their monetary policy expectations. While last week, interest rate cuts were still the main topic of discussion, the market now estimates a 40% probability of the ECB raising rates before the end of the year.
 

Japanese Yen: Taking Refuge Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

On the other hand, the Japanese Yen has received strong support from its status as a hedge. Military escalation in the Middle East, including reports of direct US involvement in the conflict with Iran, has prompted investors to shift to the Yen. Although Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that he was monitoring the Yen's decline with ‘high urgency’ and left open the possibility of intervention, geopolitical pressures have instead given the Japanese currency a boost, strengthening below 157 per dollar.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, in his statement to parliament, emphasized that while the path to interest rate normalization remains open, external factors such as global conflicts could have a material impact on Japan's domestic economy. Nevertheless, market expectations for a BoJ interest rate hike in April remain stable at 15 basis points, signaling investor confidence that the era of low interest rates in Japan is coming to an end.
 

 

Technical Projection and Market Direction

Technically, the intraday bias for EURJPY is currently neutral, with a focus on two key levels.

In a bullish scenario, a break above 184.76 would open the way to 186.22, which, if surpassed, would confirm the continuation of the long-term uptrend. Conversely, in a bearish scenario, if the pair breaks through strong support at 180.79, this would signal that the current decline is not merely a short-term fluctuation, but rather a major correction of the long rally that began at 154.77, turning the medium-term outlook negative.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

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Ady Phangestu
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 6th March 2026.

Middle East War Shake Markets as Gold Rises and Stocks Attempt Rebound.
 

Global financial markets attempted to stabilize on Friday after a week of intense volatility triggered by the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. While stocks rebounded modestly and precious metals advanced, energy markets remained the central focus for traders as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns about global oil supply.

The week has been defined by sharp cross-asset swings, as geopolitical tensions collided with economic uncertainty and rising inflation risks.
 

Stocks Rebound but Volatility Remains

Equity markets showed signs of recovery on the final trading day of the week.

European equity futures climbed nearly 1%, while US stock futures also moved higher after a weak session on Wall Street. In Asia, markets recovered from earlier losses, with regional shares edging about 0.2% higher as Chinese technology stocks provided support.

The rebound comes after heavy losses earlier in the week. Asia’s benchmark stock index is still on track for its worst weekly performance since March 2020, having fallen more than 6% since the Iran conflict began.

Markets have experienced dramatic swings during the week. South Korea’s Kospi index, for example, plunged 12% on Wednesday before rebounding nearly 10% the following day. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.6%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.6%, and China’s Shanghai Composite advanced 0.4%.

Despite Friday’s rebound, investor sentiment remains fragile as funds withdraw capital from Asian markets at the fastest pace in four years.
 

Oil Markets Driven by Strait of Hormuz Disruptions

Energy markets remain at the center of global market volatility.

Oil prices surged earlier in the week amid concerns about supply disruptions caused by the war. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil, has nearly halted according to vessel tracking data.

Although crude prices eased slightly on Friday, the market remains highly sensitive to developments in the region.Brent crude traded around $84-$85 per barrel after reaching its highest level since mid-2024 earlier this week, while US benchmark crude slipped toward $80 per barrel.

Analysts warn that sustained disruptions to oil flows could push prices significantly higher.

Some energy strategists believe Brent crude could climb toward the $100 level if interruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist for several weeks.

To ease supply pressures, the United States has granted a temporary waiver allowing Indian refiners to continue purchasing Russian oil, giving global markets additional supply flexibility as the Middle East conflict intensifies.
 

Geopolitical Risks Escalate

The military confrontation between Israel and Iran entered its seventh day, with missile and drone attacks reported across multiple countries in the Middle East.

Iranian strikes targeted at least five regional nations, while Israel launched another wave of airstrikes on Tehran. Several governments across the region have urged citizens to seek shelter amid the escalating conflict. Diplomatic tensions remain high. Iran’s foreign minister stated that the country has not requested a ceasefire and has no plans to begin negotiations.

At the same time, political rhetoric from Washington has intensified. President Donald Trump indicated he believes the United States should play a role in determining Iran’s future leadership, adding further uncertainty to the geopolitical outlook.

For markets, the key question now is how long the conflict will last.

Many investors still view a relatively short conflict as the base-case scenario, but the lack of diplomatic progress continues to keep traders cautious.
 

Safe-Haven Assets Gain Ground

As geopolitical tensions rise, safe-haven assets have benefited.

Gold advanced about 0.7%, trading near $5,115 per ounce, while silver surged more than 2%, reflecting strong demand for defensive assets. The US dollar has also regained its safe-haven appeal, putting it on track for its strongest weekly performance since November 2024.

Meanwhile, US Treasury yields were little changed ahead of a key economic release that could shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
 

Focus Turns to US Jobs Data and Inflation Risks

Traders are now turning their attention to the upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls report, which could provide important clues about the future path of interest rates.

Economists expect hiring to have moderated in February after strong job growth earlier in the year, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain steady.

However, the inflation outlook is becoming increasingly complicated.

Rising oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict could push inflation higher, particularly if energy costs remain elevated. Analysts warn that sustained increases in oil could also drive higher food prices due to rising fertilizer costs and disruptions in global trade.

This combination raises the risk of stagflation, slower economic growth combined with rising inflation, a scenario that could create further turbulence for financial markets.
 

Market Outlook: Conflict Duration Key for Traders

For investors, the trajectory of the Israel-Iran conflict will likely remain the dominant driver of market sentiment in the near term.

If oil supply disruptions persist or escalate, energy prices could surge further, adding pressure on global inflation and central bank policy.

At the same time, equity valuations remain elevated following last year’s rally fueled by artificial intelligence optimism, leaving markets vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

As a result, traders are entering the final trading session of the week with a cautious tone, balancing hopes for a short-lived conflict against the growing risk of a prolonged geopolitical crisis.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.