HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 26th January 2026.

Are the US Eying A Weaker USD?
 

The US Dollar Index has seen its strongest decline in eight months and has fallen to its lowest since September 2025. The downward price movement is due to threats of new tariffs on key trade partners, including the EU and Canada, as well as intervention talks between corporations to boost the Japanese Yen.

A key question during the elections which is now resurfacing is whether the US is aiming for a weaker Dollar. The US president has been clear that he is looking to bring back manufacturing to the US. Countries looking to boost manufacturing and exports tend to benefit from a weaker currency, such as China, Japan and Korea.
 

USDJPY - Are the US and Japan Coordinating Currency Intervention

The Japanese Yen saw two major price movements, the first on Friday where the price rose 1.99% and another on Monday increasing a further 1.15%. The USDJPY is now trading at its lowest level since November 2025. The Japanese Government has intervened into the currency exchange on four occasions over the past three years.

The Japanese government does not confirm if a price movement is due to intervention once it happens. However, government officials have been signalling intervention was imminent if the price did not quickly move in favour of the Yen.

Investors should note that the decline in the USDJPY is causing the value of the US Dollar to decline in general. In the past week, the Japanese Finance Minister Mr Katayama, and the US Treasury Secretary, Mr Bessent have made comments about supporting the Yen against the US Dollar. For many investors watching the Dollar, signs that the US is willing to support a stronger Yen revive talk of coordinated action to push the US Dollar lower. As a result, the US Dollar is declining against all currencies as this move hurts sentiment towards the currency.

The US Dollar is the worst performing currency of today and this year so far. The best performing currencies have been the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Japanese Yen. Strategists also note that these three currencies are at a low risk from geopolitical tensions and tariffs.
 

US Geopolitical Tensions and Gold

The US over the past week has been the centre of both internal political crises as well as global ones. Investors are struggling to avoid pricing in the possibility of trade tariffs at some point in 2026. As a result, countries and institutions are limiting their exposure to the US Dollar.

Gold’s price moves are also another indication that investors expect the value of the US Dollar to decline in the medium to long term. On Monday, Gold rose above $5,000 for the first time and is up 10% over the past six days. A key price driver is US Dollar weakness and geopolitical tensions.
 

Risks of a US Shutdown?

Funding expires on 30 January, and Congress has not yet passed a full budget or a new stopgap bill. As a result, investors are weighing the risk of another US Shutdown. This is another reason for the US Dollar’s decline and the upward price movement seen in metals. President Trump on Saturday threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Canada over that country's trade deal with China, even though he had previously called the agreement ‘a good thing’.
 

How Long Can the US Dollar Index Fall?

HFM - US Dollar Index Daily Chart

Even though the current price of the Dollar seems to be relatively low, the price remains higher than that seen before the COVID lockdowns. Nonetheless, the price remains below the five-year average price and slightly below the ten-year average.

Key support levels can be seen at 89.41, 91.89, and 94.55. Traders will expect the price to fall towards these levels if the currency remains under pressure. Trend-based indicators such as Moving Averages, Crossovers and the VWAP all indicate downward price movement. However, this will also depend on the Federal Reserve’s guidance on interest rates and the US budget developments.

The Federal Reserve is due to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday evening at 19:00 GMT.
 

Key Takeaways:

• Dollar Index hits eight-month low amid tariff threats and speculation of coordinated yen-support intervention.
• Yen surges sharply; USDJPY falls to November 2025 lows as intervention signals intensify.
• Comments from Katayama and Bessent fuel expectations of US-Japan coordination weakening the dollar.
• Geopolitical tensions, shutdown risk, and gold’s record rally reinforce bearish sentiment towards the US Dollar.
• Technical indicators point lower, with key Dollar Index support at 94.55, 91.89, and 89.41.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 27th January 2026.

AUD Rises on Hawkish RBA, Gold Prices and Strong Economy.
 

The Australian Dollar continues to be the best performing currency of 2026, rising by 3.70% so far. The Australian Dollar was also one of the best performing currencies of 2025 and rose against the US Dollar. In 2025, the Australian Dollar rose against the US Dollar for the first time in five years.

The Australian Dollar is primarily increasing in value for four key reasons:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish guidance
• Positive economic data
• Limited exposure to current geopolitical tensions, which are primarily impacting the US, EU, and UK.
• Gold, the US Dollar and AUD correlation.

AUD - Upcoming Economic Data

Australia is due to announce its latest consumer price index (inflation rate) on Wednesday morning at 00:30 GMT. Analysts expect the CPI to rise from 3.4% to 3.5% which supports the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish stance. The inflation rate comes at a critical time as the RBA is due to announce its interest rate decision next Tuesday (3 February).

If the inflation rate indeed rises from 3.4% to 3.5%, the RBA is likely to continue to indicate no interest rate cuts. Currently, analysts are contemplating whether the RBA will choose to increase interest rates or stick to a pause. Many economists and markets are now assigning a significant chance (around 50%) that the RBA will raise the cash rate by 0.25% at its 3 February meeting. This follows months of inflation pressure and strong labour market data.

If, however, the inflation rate increases above 3.5%, the possibility of an interest rate hike will significantly increase. In its latest press conference, the RBA governor, Michelle Bullock, told journalists that the central bank does not expect any interest rate cuts in the ‘foreseeable future’. The Commonwealth Bank and NAB expect the RBA to increase rates by 0.25%, whereas Westpac expects a pause.

Either way a key deciding factor will be tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index. If an interest rate adjustment becomes likely, the Australian Dollar is likely to rise. At the same time, if the RBA pauses but remains extremely hawkish for the future, again the AUD may find support.
 

Australia’s Economic Data and Geographical Advantage

Australia also benefits from its geographical location and limited direct exposure to current global geopolitical tensions. Unlike regions such as the US, Europe, and the UK, ongoing conflicts and trade disputes involve Australia less directly. Nonetheless, the country is still a member of the G20 and has a history of stability.

As global risks remain elevated, investors are increasingly seeking currencies linked to politically stable and lower-risk regions. This has supported demand for the Australian dollar, as it offers exposure to a developed economy with strong institutions while helping investors reduce their exposure to global geopolitical uncertainty.

In addition to this, Australia’s latest economic data release comes from the employment sector. The country’s unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.1%, the lowest since June 2025. Furthermore, the employment sector added a further 65,000 employed individuals, beating expectations and recording the highest growth since May 2025.

Is Gold Supporting The Australian Dollar?

It has been well documented that the Trump administration may look to slowly lower the value of the US Dollar. The US Federal Government may look to do so in order to support manufacturing. In addition to this, many institutions and countries are looking to limit their risk involved with the turbulence in the US and the US Dollar.

Even though economists do not indicate any severe decline, most believe the administration prefers a slightly weaker Dollar. As a result, other currencies such as the Euro, Australian Dollar and Swiss Franc are finding support. However, the AUD is also finding support from the rise in Gold. Australia is the second-largest producer of Gold and fifth-largest for Silver.

Australian equities and commodity sectors (including gold miners) have been boosted by the gold rally, which can improve overall market sentiment towards Australia. Currently, this is supporting the AUD, but only if the RBA continues to remain hawkish.
 

Technical Analysis - AUDUSD

 

HFM - AUDUSD Weekly Chart

In terms of technical analysis, AUDUSD is obtaining bullish trend signals from momentum-based indicators. However, the exchange rate is at a major resistance level at 0.69365. At the same time, the price remains at an overbought level on the RSIon the daily timeframe. As a result, investors should be cautious of retracements and limited bullish price movement.

However, trend-based indicators continue to point to a bullish trend in the medium to longer term. If the price returns above 0.69185, the bullish signals may again strengthen for short-term price action.
 

Key Takeaways:

• The Australian Dollar leads currency performance in 2026, rising 3.7 per cent and continuing its 2025 strength.
• Its rise is supported by hawkish RBA guidance, strong economic data, gold correlation, and geopolitical stability.
• Australia will release the CPI on 28 January, potentially influencing the RBA’s 3 February interest rate decision.
• Low exposure to global conflicts and strong employment growth make the Australian Dollar attractive to investors.
• Technical analysis shows short-term bullish momentum, but resistance near 0.69365 and overbought RSI suggest possible retracements.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 28th January 2026.

Trump Embraces a Weaker US Dollar.
 

The US Dollar continues to decline as the market awaits the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. A decision not to adjust interest rates is almost certain, but investors will be hoping for more guidance on March’s decision.

However, the hawkish Federal Reserve is not supporting the US Dollar in any way. The US Dollar Index is trading at its lowest price since early 2022 and the President’s recent comments are fuelling poor sentiment towards the currency.

The decline in the US Dollar is consequently supporting Gold and Metal prices, while institutions increase exposure to the Swiss Franc, Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar.
 

USDCHF - Swiss Franc Approaches 15-Year High Against US Dollar

The US is experiencing particularly strong economic data and a resilient employment sector. Inflation on the other hand remains above the Federal Reserve’s target but below most economists’ projections. Nonetheless, even with inflation remaining lower than expectations, the Federal Reserve is under no pressure to cut interest rates in the economy.

The Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged for the first quarter of 2026 in order to ensure inflation does not rise. The Fed is likely to cut on one occasion in the second quarter and another in the third quarter. However, the hawkishness of the Federal Reserve is not supporting the US Dollar.

The decline in the US Dollar is driven by questions over the independence of the Federal Reserve. Additional pressure comes from the upcoming appointment of a new chairman in May and the president’s embracing a weaker Dollar. Markets expect the new chairman to be more in line with the administration’s dovish stance. Overnight, the US President, Donald Trump, told investors that ‘I think the value of the Dollar is great’ and he would not be worried about the decline continuing.

Reports suggest the Trump administration could favour a gradual decline in the US Dollar to support manufacturing. At the same time, institutions and countries are working to reduce exposure to US volatility.
 

HFM - USDCHF Weekly Chart

The Swiss Franc is one of the best performing currencies of the day and is the third best of the year so far. Investors are increasing their exposure to the Swiss Franc due to its safe haven status. In addition, the Swiss Franc is less at risk of any backlashes from geopolitical issues. This is also supporting the price of the Australian and New Zealand Dollars.
 

Australian Inflation Continues to Rise

The Australian Dollar continues to find support from positive economic data fuelling speculation of no interest rate cuts in 2026. This morning, the monthly Consumer Price Index rose from 0.0% to 1.0% and the inflation rate rose from 3.4% to 3.8%. As a result, the inflation rate remains unstable and may indicate the country’s monetary policy is not adequately restrictive.

Previously economists were placing the probability of a rate hike at 50%. Economists are yet to confirm their new projection after the latest inflation data. However, the chances of an interest rate hike have likely risen.
 

Gold - A Weaker Dollar Continues to Fuel

 

HFM - XAUUSD Weekly Chart

Gold’s price continues to increase for a seventh consecutive day and has already risen more than 20% this month. However, technical analysts are becoming increasingly cautious about an overbought price. The Federal Reserve is not likely to cut interest rates in this quarter, and the stock market continues to rise while the economy performs well.

The price of the US Dollar Index is retracing slightly higher after the recent dip. If the price continues to rise above 96.00, the chances of Gold retracing will also grow. In addition, the VIX index has fallen more than 1.50% this morning, indicating a risk-on appetite. This can also slightly pressure Gold in the short term.
 

Key Takeaways:

• The US Dollar weakens as markets await Fed guidance despite rates likely remaining unchanged.
• Dollar sentiment is hurt by political pressure and doubts over Fed independence.
• A weaker Dollar boosts gold and metals; investors rotate into CHF, AUD and NZD.
• Swiss franc outperforms on safe-haven demand amid global volatility concerns.
• Rising Australian inflation strengthens AUD and raises interest rate hike expectations.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 29th January 2026.

US Dollar Slides on Shutdown Fears Despite Fed Pause.
 

The Federal Reserve chose not to adjust interest rates and gave no indication of a rate cut for March. In addition, the Federal Reserve Chairman told journalists that he believes the central bank will remain fully independent. The Federal Reserve’s moves can potentially support the US Dollar. Nonetheless, the US Dollar continues to decline.

After the US Dollar Index retraced to 96.60, the currency fell by 0.80%, particularly after the Fed’s press conference. Why are investors continuing to short the US Dollar?
 

The US Dollar Index

Even though the US Dollar is declining on Thursday and has come under pressure since the Fed’s press conference, it is not falling to a new low. The price has remained above its recent lows despite the pressure. The price remains 0.50% higher than yesterday’s low. The US Dollar Index is increasing as we edge closer to the European session open. However, the index must rise above 96.12 in order to start to obtain clear potential buy signals.


 

HFM - US Dollar Index 12-Hour Chart


The worst performing currencies of the day so far are the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen. The best performing currencies are again the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar.

The US Dollar’s decline is not necessarily due to the Federal Reserve or monetary policy. Investors are shorting the US Dollar as they look to distance themselves from geopolitical tensions and a potential US shutdown. In addition, investors are negatively reacting to the US coordinating with the Japanese government regarding boosting the Japanese Yen. Investors tend to negatively view interventions into the currency market.
 

A Possible US Shutdown?

The current US budget is due to expire on 30 January. US President Donald Trump and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer are reportedly negotiating on the new budget.

To avert a shutdown, the US administration is looking to separate the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding from a larger spending package. However, the Democrats are likely to add reforms to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). This could potentially be a key sticking point.

Many Democrats propose mandatory body cameras for agents, restrictions on mask use, tighter use-of-force standards, and independent oversight of alleged abuses. These measures are driven by recent controversies involving immigration agents and have emerged as the central obstacle in the negotiations.

According to analysts, there is a 70% chance of a US shutdown. A US shutdown could potentially pressure the US Dollar and sentiment further.
 

The Federal Reserve

The key takeaways from the Federal Reserve’s press conference from Wednesday evening are comments on the economy and future rate adjustments. The Chairman of the Fed, Jerome Powell, advised economic activity is expanding at a solid pace and the employment sector shows signs of stabilising.

However, Mr Powell also advises inflation remains above its target and does not show signs of stabilizing below 2.5%. As a result, the Federal Reserve is not likely to cut interest rates easily according to the Chairman.

The Federal Open Market Committee is largely supporting a pause, with only two members voting for an interest rate cut. In addition, Powell indicated that it’s unlikely the next policy move will be a rate increase.
 

Trump and The US Dollar

Earlier, US President Donald Trump commented on movements in the US Dollar, saying he was unconcerned about the sharp decline that has pushed the currency back to four-year lows. He added that he currently prefers to let the market determine a ‘fair value’ for the Dollar.

Investors interpreted this stance as a sign of continued market-driven pricing, but it also heightened uncertainty, as the absence of verbal or direct support for the currency leaves it more sensitive to economic data, central bank decisions, and foreign policy developments.
 

Key Takeaways:

• The Federal Reserve held rates steady, signalled no March cut, and emphasised independence, but the US Dollar continues to weaken.
• The Dollar’s decline is driven more by geopolitical risks, shutdown fears, and investor positioning than by Fed policy.
• A potential US government shutdown, with negotiations stalled over DHS and ICE reforms, is adding downside pressure to sentiment.
• President Trump’s hands-off stance on the Dollar has increased uncertainty, making the currency more sensitive to data and policy developments.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.