HFM Posted Monday at 11:13 AM Author Posted Monday at 11:13 AM Date: 25th August 2025. Fed Signals A September Rate Cut Still Possible! As the possibility of an interest rate cut was looking less likely, the Federal Reserve Chairman’s speech provides clarity on the matter. Towards the end of the Jackson Hole Symposium, it is tradition that the Fed Chairman delivers the closing address =. Mr Jerome Powell took this opportunity to advise markets that there is still a possibility for a rate cut in September, despite mixed views within the FOMC. Possibility of September Rate Cut The EURUSD rose to its highest price since July 28th after the speech by the Federal Reserve chairman. The price of the US Dollar had been consistently increasing during the previous week as traders became more cautious about a potential rate pause. A rate pause would be a hawkish surprise from the Federal Reserve and would largely support the US Dollar. According to economists, the probability of a September rate cut has now risen from 82% to 88%. In addition, economists suggest that two 0.25% rate cuts by the end of the year remain the most likely outcome. But why has the market’s perception of future rate cuts shifted since the Fed’s speech? Federal Reserve Speech By Jerome Powell Jerome Powell did not provide concrete signals that a September rate cut is certain. However, he clearly stated that if employment remains at risk, “a 0.25% rate cut could be warranted”. Even though Powell did not confirm a rate cut, the slightly dovish tone was enough to weaken the US Dollar and fuel a rebound in the stock market. Powell highlighted the unusual dynamics in the labor market, noting that both worker supply and demand are cooling, which increases risks to employment. At the same time, inflation remains slightly above the Fed’s 2% target, driven in part by tariff-related pressures. He underscored the difficulty of balancing these competing challenges. The July NFP Employment Change came in at only 73,000, the lowest reading since November 2024. In addition, the Unemployment Rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. If the employment change again reads below 100,000 and unemployment stays at 4.2% or higher, the chances of a rate cut will become almost certain. The US Dollar The best-performing currency in today’s Asian session is the US Dollar. However, traders should note that the price action reflects only a retracement following Friday’s decline. Looking at the broader trend, the US Dollar index is 0.27% lower over the past week, even with today’s slight gains. Meanwhile, the Euro is the second-best performing currency of the past week but is showing mixed performances this morning. Germany’s Q2 GDP was revised down to –0.3% QoQ (vs. –0.1% forecast) and 0.2% YoY (vs. 0.4% expected). The decline reflects weaker US demand after pre-tariff stockpiling, raising doubts over Europe’s recovery this year and next. The Economy Ministry warned that existing support measures are insufficient, calling for new incentives to revive competitiveness and growth. EURUSD - Technical Analysis EURUSD 12-Hour Chart The EURUSD is forming a reversed Head and Shoulders pattern on a daily chart, which provides a bullish bias over the longer term and aligns with market expectations for two rate cuts in 2025. In addition, the price of the EURUSD is trading above the 75-bar EMA and the 100-bar EMA. The RSI is also comfortably trading above the 50.00, further supporting a bullish trend and buyers’ control. If the price of the EURUSD rises above 1.17119, bullish signals on smaller timeframes are likely to materialise again. Key Takeaways: Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole kept the door open for a possible September rate cut, but employment data and the NFP reading will be decisive. Odds of a September cut rose to 88%, fueling a rebound in stocks and pressuring the Dollar. Economists note that if the NFP report comes in below 100,000 again and unemployment holds at 4.2%, the likelihood of a rate cut will increase further. EURUSD shows a bullish bias, trading above key EMAs with RSI strength, supported by a potential reversed Head and Shoulders pattern. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote
HFM Posted yesterday at 09:05 AM Author Posted yesterday at 09:05 AM Oil Prices Climb as Russia-Ukraine Talks Stall, But Bearish Momentum Returns Crude oil prices rise for four consecutive days, and no further progress is made between Russia, the US and Ukraine. As time progresses without a ceasefire or peace deal, the likelihood of one diminishes, triggering a spike in Oil prices. Oil prices on Monday rose to $65.78, the highest in 20 days, but the price retraced lower during this morning’s session. Why Are Oil Prices Rising? Oil prices extended their gains as investors grew discouraged by the lack of progress in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Russia is the third-largest oil exporter in the world behind Saudi Arabia and the US. Over a week has passed since the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, yet no details of an agreement have surfaced. Adding to supply concerns, the White House reiterated over the weekend that new sanctions on Russia’s energy sector will be imposed within two weeks if no diplomatic settlement is reached. Such measures could tighten crude supply and further support prices. President Trump told journalists that he believes Putin's dislike of Zelensky is delaying a meeting between the two. Such a move would also significantly escalate geopolitical tensions, as Russia currently relies on oil exports to fund a large part of the economy’s budget. However, the Vice President told journalists that during the Trump-Putin talks, the Russian President was willing to make concessions. Therefore, if momentum again gains speed, the price of Crude Oil can again come under pressure. US Economic Data The upcoming economic data is also likely to influence the pricing of the energy market. Today, investors will evaluate the release of the US Durable Goods Orders, CB Consumer Confidence and Richmond Manufacturing Index. However, the main releases of the week will be Thursday’s Gross Domestic Product and Friday’s Core PCE Price Index. The price of Crude oil is likely to come under pressure if the economic data is weaker than the current projections, while the Core PCE Price Index reads higher. This would indicate a weakening economy while pressuring the Fed not to cut interest rates. On the other hand, if the Core PCE Price Index falls and the Gross Domestic Product rises, Crude Oil products are likely to rise further. Currently, all energy products are trading lower on Tuesday. Heating Oil is 0.42% lower, Brent Oil -0.42%, and Gasoline is 0.44% lower. All global indices are also declining, indicating a ‘risk-off’ sentiment within the market. Crude Oil - Technical Analysis The price of Crude Oil is trading below the day’s VWAP, indicating that sellers are currently controlling the price movement. However, on a 2-hour chart, the price remains above most Moving Averages, meaning that most traders will focus on a retracement at first. When the price falls below the 75-bar EMA on the 2-hour chart, traders will switch their view to a potential full correction. Crude Oil 10-Minute Chart A retracement could see the price fall back down to $64.1,9, which would be a further 1.20% decline. The $64.19 would be key as it is in line with the 75-bar EMA and is the level where the resistance level potentially may flip to support. However, the price movement would depend on the progress between Russia and Ukraine as well as the upcoming US economic data. If the price remains below the $65.00 level, sell signals are likely to remain intact for the short-term. If the price rises above $65.25, sell signals will start to fade until bearish momentum is regained. Key Takeaways: Crude oil hit a 20-day high at $65.78 amid stalled US-Russia-Ukraine peace talks and sanction risks. Lack of progress and potential US sanctions on Russia’s energy sector could tighten supply and support prices. US economic data this week (GDP, Core PCE) will heavily influence oil demand outlook and Fed policy expectations. Technically, oil trades below VWAP with key support at $64.19; staying under $65 keeps short-term bearish pressure. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote
HFM Posted 3 hours ago Author Posted 3 hours ago Date: 27th August 2025. Stocks Remain Steady Despite India Tariffs, NVIDIA Earnings in Focus. Some investors may argue that the most important day for the NASDAQ is here with the release of NVIDIA’s Quarterly Earnings Report. NVIDIA is due to release the company’s quarterly report after the close of the day’s US Session. NVIDIA stocks are the most influential stocks for the NASDAQ and can have a ripple effect on all tech stocks. NVIDIA Stocks and Quarterly Earnings Report NVIDIA stocks have risen 1% each day over the past week and are already trading 0.32% higher during this morning’s after-hours trading. The bullish price movement ahead of the report indicates that shareholders are confident in the upcoming report. According to analysts’ projections, the company will see growth within all of its sectors. Analysts expect revenue to increase to $41.3 billion, which is a 57% increase year over year. In addition to this, the company’s Gaming Sector is also expected to have increased by 33%. In 2025 so far, NVIDIA stocks have risen 31% but the upcoming price movements will depend on whether the company can beat the current projections. NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings report is not solely important to the market because it's the world’s most valuable company. During August, the market has struggled to determine the intrinsic value of AI-related companies. The NASDAQ declined this month after a pessimistic report from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and remarks by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman fueled doubts about the sector’s prolonged rally. Therefore, NVIDIA’s earnings report can either fuel these fears further or reinstate confidence in technology stocks. NASDAQ - Tariffs a Concern For Investors, But Not Yet Triggering A Decline The NASDAQ is being positively influenced by the upcoming NVIDIA report and has fully corrected the decline seen on Monday. However, the performance of the NASDAQ continues to remain under pressure from tariffs and Fed independence threats. The US has raised tariffs on Indian exports to as high as 50%, twice the previous rate, in retaliation for India’s ongoing purchases of Russian oil. However, traders need to note that many products are exempt from the tax. Nonetheless, in turn, New Delhi is deepening diplomatic engagement with China and Russia and advancing domestic reforms. It is also drawing on its foreign exchange reserves to steady financial markets. Currently, global stock markets remain unchanged and are not witnessing any significant declines due to the tariffs imposed on India. The VIX index is currently trading slightly lower, which is positive for the stock market. However, the Put and Call Ratios are increasing upwards towards the 0.70 level, which indicates stocks may potentially decline again. This would depend on NVIDIA’s earnings report as well as the upcoming US data. This includes tomorrow’s US Gross Domestic Product and Friday’s Core PCE Price Index. Analysts expect the US Gross Domestic Product to rise to 3.1% and for the Core PCE Price Index to rise 0.3%. A 0.3% increase in the index would be considered too high for the Federal Reserve and could apply some pressure on the NASDAQ. NASDAQ (USA100) - Technical Analysis When analysing the NASDAQ’s price movement on a daily timeframe, the price does not indicate a change of trend. The bias remains towards the upside, but there are clear indications that investors are becoming cautious of the extremely high price and the asset’s intrinsic value. NASDAQ 15-Minute Chart On the 2-hour chart, the price is trading above the 75-bar EMA, indicating buyers are attempting to gain control. However, it would be vital to break through the resistance level, which can be seen at 23,585.70. On smaller timeframes, the price on Wednesday is so far trading within a sideways price movement, but remains above the main trendlines and Moving Averages. If the price breaks above the $23,573.30, bullish signals will strengthen. Whereas if the price falls below $23,530.00, sell signals will materialise. Key Takeaways: NVIDIA’s earnings report is pivotal as its results could set the tone for all tech stocks. NVIDIA remains the NASDAQ’s most influential stock. Analysts project strong growth with a revenue of $41.3B (up 57% YoY) and notable gaming sector growth (+33%). US tariffs on India and Fed independence concerns weigh on sentiment, though markets remain stable for now. The NASDAQ’s bias stays bullish but faces key resistance near 23,585. A breakout or breakdown around current levels could signal the next move. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote
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