HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 15th July 2025.

European Stocks Rise on Trade Hopes, Asian Markets Dip | CPI & Bitcoin in Focus.

Trading Leveraged products is Risky

European stocks climbed on Tuesday, led by gains in the automobile and technology sectors, after US President Donald Trump signaled a willingness to negotiate tariffs with the European Union.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index edged 0.2% higher to 547.74 points by 07:11 GMT, supported by positive momentum across most regional bourses. The market’s tone improved after Trump hinted at upcoming discussions with EU officials, despite recent threats of steep tariffs on European imports.

Trade Hopes Support European Equities

While the EU had earlier accused the US of blocking progress toward a trade agreement, investor sentiment was lifted when Trump confirmed that EU representatives would soon visit Washington for negotiations. The US president had previously escalated trade tensions by threatening to impose a 30% tariff on most EU imports starting August 1, heightening concerns over a broader trade conflict.

Automobile stocks led the charge in Europe, advancing 0.9%, while tech shares followed with a 0.8% gain. Telecoms, however, lagged, dipping 0.8%.Among notable movers, Orsted shares surged 5.5% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the Danish offshore wind energy firm to “Overweight” from “Equal Weight,” citing stronger growth prospects.

Key Data and Earnings in Focus

Investors are eyeing crucial macroeconomic data releases on Tuesday, including Eurozone industrial production for May and Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for July. Across the Atlantic, the US earnings season kicks off, with major banks set to release their second-quarter results. Additionally, the highly anticipated US CPI inflation data for June is due later in the day, expected to show a slight acceleration in consumer prices.

Markets Retreat on Tariff Fears

In contrast, Asian stock markets mostly traded lower in early Tuesday deals, weighed down by renewed concerns over US tariff threats.

* Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.1% to 39,507.28
* Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.4% to 8,602.70
* South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.2% to 3,195.72
* Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.1%
* China’s Shanghai Composite dropped 0.9%

China’s GDP growth slowed slightly in the second quarter to 5.2% year-over-year, down from 5.4% in Q1, reflecting the drag from escalating trade tensions. On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded 1.1%, official data showed.

US Markets Hold Steady as CPI Report Looms

On Monday, US equities posted modest gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.1%, the Dow Jones rising 0.2%, and the Nasdaq climbing 0.3%. Investors are cautiously optimistic that the White House may tone down tariff threats, especially with trade negotiations ongoing and financial markets showing resilience.

Gold Rises Amid Mixed Trade Signals

Gold prices rebounded, gaining as much as 0.5% after Monday’s pullback. The precious metal remains a safe-haven favorite in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Although Trump expressed openness to renewed talks, his insistence that tariff notification letters serve as the “final deal” has left markets unsure.

Gold has surged over 25% year-to-date, briefly surpassing $3,500 an ounce in April, driven by global volatility and aggressive US trade rhetoric. However, the rally has paused in recent months, with investors waiting for more clarity on global trade frameworks.

Bitcoin Soars as US Debates Crypto-Friendly Legislation

In the digital asset space, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $122,404 on Monday, boosted by optimism surrounding crypto-focused legislation in the US. The Genius Act, along with the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, is set for debate in Congress this week. The bills aim to provide regulatory clarity and further integrate cryptocurrencies into mainstream finance.

NVIDIA Poised to Resume China Sales

NVIDIA is preparing to resume sales of its revised H20 GPUs to China, in compliance with updated US export regulations. Sources indicate the company has received positive signals from policymakers after CEO Jensen Huang met with President Trump, reaffirming support for domestic job creation and innovation.

Inflation Data and Earnings Set the Tone for the Week

Markets remain focused on US inflation data, with June CPI expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month, and the core index projected to increase 0.3%. Annual headline inflation is likely to accelerate to 2.6% from 2.4% in May, while the core CPI may edge up to 2.9%, staying below the 3% threshold for the fourth consecutive month.

These figures are critical as the Federal Reserve assesses whether to maintain its dovish stance or adjust policy in response to trade developments and inflation trends.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 16th July 2025.

 

Mixed US CPI Data Clouds Fed Outlook While Global Markets React to Tariff Jitters.

 

US financial markets remained choppy following the release of June's CPI report, which presented a mixed inflation picture. While headline consumer prices rose 0.3%—the largest gain since January—core inflation cooled slightly, increasing by just 0.2%. This combination has left investors and policymakers without a clear signal on the direction of the US economy, tempering hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in the near term.

 

Rate cut expectations for the September FOMC meeting slipped to 60%, down from 68% earlier this week. Fed fund futures now reflect a lower implied rate of -14 basis points for September, compared to -18.8 bps after the June jobs report and -29 bps following weaker-than-expected ADP data on July 2. The probability of a second cut in December has also decreased, with the December contract pricing in -44 bps, down from a fully priced -50 bps earlier.

 

Inflation Drivers and Tariff Impact

June's CPI surge was driven by a 0.9% increase in energy prices, including a 1.0% rise in gasoline costs. Other contributors included medical care services (+0.6%), tobacco (+0.5%), and apparel (+0.4%). Meanwhile, vehicle prices dragged on the index, with new vehicles falling by 0.3% and used vehicles declining by 0.7%. Year-over-year, headline CPI rose to 2.7%, while core CPI edged up to 2.9%.

 

Economists attribute much of the price pressure to the Trump administration’s tariff increases, particularly in sectors like coffee, furniture, and pharmaceuticals. As Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously warned, the inflationary effects of these tariffs are beginning to show, and could continue building into the third quarter, especially as the August 1 tariff deadline approaches.

 

Treasury Yields Rise, Nasdaq Hits Record

Despite the cooler core reading, Treasury yields rose sharply, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.495%, the highest since June 11. This movement was partially driven by technical selling and growing concerns that tariff-induced price hikes could spill over into PCE inflation data. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq rallied to fresh record highs, supported by a strong performance from AI bellwether Nvidia.

 

Global Central Banks in Focus

The Bank of England is also facing inflation challenges. UK inflation unexpectedly accelerated, with headline CPI rising to 3.6% year-over-year and core CPI climbing to 3.7%. Services inflation held steady at a concerning 4.7%. BoE policymaker Catherine Mann warned that job insecurity is driving consumer caution and increased savings, which may weigh on growth sectors like retail and hospitality.

 

While another rate cut in August is still likely, these inflation numbers may reduce the likelihood of a rapid easing cycle.

 

Asia, Oil, and Commodities

Asian equity markets were broadly under pressure as rising US yields and a stronger dollar weighed on investor sentiment. The dollar climbed to its highest against the yen since early April, driven by speculation that the Fed may delay any easing. Mainland Chinese blue chips fell 0.5%, while South Korea's KOSPI declined 1%. Taiwan’s tech-heavy index bucked the trend, rising 0.9%.

 

Meanwhile, oil prices hovered near recent lows, with Brent crude trading at $68.96 a barrel. Despite rising global inventories, Morgan Stanley noted that much of the buildup occurred outside OECD nations, limiting its impact on futures pricing. The bank retained its Brent forecast at $65 for Q4 2025, but warned that post-summer demand might not be enough to prevent a renewed surplus.

 

Gold regained ground, trading near $3,340 an ounce, supported by continued geopolitical tensions and strong central bank buying. Bitcoin, meanwhile, rebounded 1% after a recent pullback from its record high above $123,000.

 

Looking Ahead

Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming producer price data for additional clues on inflationary trends. Meanwhile, earnings season is ramping up, with mixed results from major banks like JPMorgan and Citigroup and more reports due from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America.

 

As global markets continue to digest a flurry of data and geopolitical developments, the coming weeks may provide more clarity on central bank policy paths and broader economic trends.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

 

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

 

Andria Pichidi

HFMarkets

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 17th July 2025.

Global Markets Mixed Amid Bond Yield Moves, UK Jobs Data, and Japan Trade Concerns.
 

Asian markets posted broad-based gains on Thursday, following a strong finish on Wall Street. European equities also opened higher across the board, while US stock futures remain narrowly mixed in pre-market trade. However, rising global bond yields and mixed economic data continue to weigh on market sentiment.

Bond Yields Climb Globally

Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) closed stronger, pushing the 10-year yield down by 1.9 basis points. However, US Treasury yields quickly reversed early gains, with the 10-year yield climbing to 4.48%, up 2.4 basis points. Meanwhile, Germany’s 10-year Bund yield rose 1.2 basis points, and the UK’s 10-year Gilt added 2.6 basis points, reflecting market jitters around global inflation and interest rate expectations.

UK Labour Market Data Strengthens Rate Cut Bets

The UK labour market surprised to the downside, with the ILO unemployment rate rising to 4.7% in the three months to May, up from 4.6%. While total employment increased by 134,000 during the period, more recent data showed a drop of 41,000 payrolled employees in June, following a 25,000 decline the previous month. Jobless claims also rose by 25,900 in June.

At the same time, wage growth showed signs of deceleration. Headline pay growth slowed to 5.0% from 5.4%, while regular pay (excluding bonuses) also eased to 5.0%. These figures, combined with recent inflation data, reinforce expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in August. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey recently indicated that labour market conditions will be a key factor in the pace of monetary easing.

Currency and Commodities Snapshot

The US dollar briefly dipped below the 98 mark amid speculation that President Trump was considering removing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. However, the greenback quickly recovered, with the Dollar Index (DXY) currently at 98.71.

Gold prices slipped by 0.4%, trading at $3332.65 per ounce. Crude oil prices remained stable, with WTI front-month futures slightly lower at $66.39 per barrel. The oil market continues to monitor US inventories and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.


 

Australian Job Market Weakens

Australia’s labour market showed signs of softening as unemployment rose unexpectedly to a four-year high in June. Hiring activity nearly stalled, raising the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia may cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting.

Japan Slides into Trade Deficit as US Tariffs Bite

Japan posted a trade deficit of 2.2 trillion yen (€13 billion) in the first half of the year, driven by a decline in exports amid ongoing US tariff pressure. June exports fell 0.5% year-over-year, following a 1.7% drop in May. Shipments to the US were particularly hit, declining 11%, with auto exports plunging 26.7%, following a 25% tariff introduced in April.

With nearly 20% of Japan’s exports heading to the US, the country is pushing for favourable trade agreements. Meanwhile, Japan prepares for Upper House elections this Sunday. Weak public support for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba could jeopardise the ruling party’s majority unless a new coalition is formed.

Recession Fears Mount in Japan

Japan’s economy contracted in Q1 and may be headed for another contraction in Q2. Falling exports and weakening global demand are raising fears that the country may officially enter a recession in the coming months.

Oil Prices Rebound Amid Supply Risks and Diesel Shortages

After three consecutive days of losses, oil prices edged higher. Traders are weighing lower-than-usual crude and diesel inventories in the US and Europe against broader concerns about future supply gluts. Diesel shortages in particular have supported prices in the short term.

‘The market is currently buoyed by tight diesel supplies, but if OPEC+ production ramps up, we may see a bearish shift,’ said Zhou Mi, an analyst at Chaos Ternary Futures Co.

US distillate stockpiles remain at their lowest seasonal level since 1996, despite a modest weekly increase. The futures spread between low-sulfur gasoil and Brent for September—a key indicator of diesel refining profitability—has jumped 7% this month.

Geopolitical Risks in Kurdistan Add to Supply Concerns

Drone strikes targeted several oil fields in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region on Wednesday. While the region has not exported crude since a pipeline closure over two years ago, the attacks highlight growing risks to global energy infrastructure.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.