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#21
michel

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What’s next? – USDJPY 12.04.18

The dollar was trading 0.15 percent higher vs the Japanese yen at 106.94 as of 06:25 GMT on Thursday, as the dollar recovered moderately on the back of upbeat inflation data.

 

Yesterday, the core consumer price index showed a 2.1 percent year-on-year growth for March, its best performance since February 2017, compared to a prior month 1.8 percent.

 

The US dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.08 percent higher at 89.33 by the time of this writing.

 

Ahead in the day, the US export/import price index is up at 12:30 GMT. No other relevant reports are scheduled for today’s session. We believe attention will turn to political developments.

 

Overnight, the Trump administration warned Moscow about its position in the Syria conflict, suggesting serious military actions would be taken against Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

 

President Donald Trump tweeted: “Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia,  because they will be coming, nice and new and “smart!” You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!”

Earlier this week, the Republican leader told a group of reporters that “[the United States] have a lot of options, militarily. And we'll be letting you know pretty soon"

 

It seems investors’ focus is not shifting from US-China trade relations to US-Russia war relations. This matter could potentially be much more damaging than a trade war, therefore market players are likely to closely monitor the situation.

 

The pair is expected to run high on the back of higher geopolitical uncertainty. The USDJPY will be driven by fear and the Japanese yen will take the lead in that case.

 


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#22
michel

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What’s next? – GOLD 13.04.18

Gold prices traded higher in Asian hours on Friday, with rising geopolitical tension over Syria offering support to the demand of safe-haven assets.

 

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures were up 0.07 percent at $1.342.90 a troy ounce as of 06:20 GMT.

 

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump said military actions in Syria “could be very soon or not so soon at all”. His remarks boosted the dollar’s position and weighed on the metal.

 

The precious metal fell 1.3 percent in the previous session, the largest one-day drop since March 28. The dollar’s dynamic continues to play a key role for gold prices.

 

The US dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.08 percent higher at 89.33 by the time of this writing.

 

Dollar-denominated gold is very sensitive to moves in the American currency. A stronger dollar makes the yellow metal less attractive for investors holding foreign currencies.

 

Ahead in today’s session, traders will be paying attention to speeches by FOMC members Rosengren and Bullard as of 12:00 GMT and 13:00 GMT respectively.

 

On the data front, JOLTs job openings for February will be published at 14:00 GMT, along with Michigan Consumer Expectations and Sentiment indicators for April.

 

 


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#23
michel

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Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (April 16 - 20, 2018)

EURUSD

Irrespective of the bullish attempt that was witnessed last week, the outlook on EURUSD remains neutral. The neutrality has been ongoing for over 2 months, and the bullish attempt that happened last week pales into insignificance when compared to the overall outlook on the market. Price currently oscillates between the support line at 1.2200 and the resistance line at 1.2400. There is a going to be a directional bias once that support line or that resistance line is breached. However, a breach of the support line at 1.2200 is much more likely.

 

USDCHF

There is some form of bullishness in this market. Since the support level at 0.9200 was breached on February 16, price has moved upwards by 440 pips, closing above the support level at 0.9600 on Friday. This week is supposed to be bullish, because USD will likely gain some stamina against certain currencies like EUR, CHF, AUD and NZD (with the exception of GBP). The first object of attack this week is the resistance level at 0.9650.

 

GBPUSD

The market gained 220 pips last week, almost reaching the distribution territory at 1.4300, and getting corrected lower, to close below the distribution territory at 1.4250. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and price is supposed to go seriously upwards again, breaching the distribution territories at 1.4250, 1.4300 and 1.4350 to the upside. Short trades are not yet recommended.

 

USDJPY

The trading instrument is bearish in the long-term, and bullish in the short-term. There is a weak short-term bullishness owing to the fact that price made some effort to go upwards last week, gaining only 80 pips. Price managed to briefly breach the supply level at 107.50, but it could not close above it on Friday (it closed below it). However, price would be able to go above the supply level at 107.50; even reaching other supply levels at 108.50, 109.00 and 109.50.

 

EURJPY

This cross is bearish in the long-term, and now bullish in the short-term. It has gained roughly 250 pips this month, and it can gain another 250 pips before the end of the month. That is something that can bring about a long-term bullish outlook on the market as it goes through the supply zones at 133.00, 133.50 and 134.00, even exceeding those supply zones as price goes further and further northwards.

 

GBPJPY

There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The market gained roughly 500 pips in March and it has gained over 400 pips this month, closing above the demand zone at 152.50 on Friday. The outlook on GBP/JPY and most other JPY pairs, remains bullish for this week. The price is expected to reach the supply zones at 153.00, 153.50 and 154.00: the targets that could even be exceeded.

 

Trading forcast forex analysis

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below: 

 

“The markets never reward desperation. They only reward clear thinking, discipline and courage.” – Louise Bedford,


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#24
michel

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What’s next? – GOLD 16.04.18

 

Gold prices traded higher in Asian hours on Monday, with market players weighing geopolitical concerns while keeping an eye on upcoming economic reports scheduled later this week.

 

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures were up 0.07 percent at $1.348.90 a troy ounce as of 06:50 GMT.

 

Last week, the yellow metal settled in green territory at $1,347.80 per ounce, about 0.44 percent higher. For the week, gold prices added 0.88 percent.

 

There were three factors supporting the metal in the last few sessions: prospects of a trade war between the US and China, rising international tensions over Syria, and the dollar’s dynamic.

President Xi Jinping said in the previous week that China is willing to take active measures to open its economy, allowing more foreign investments and importation. While this position reinforced the idea of a diplomatic solution, the US hasn’t responded in the same terms so far.

 

Meanwhile, attention progressively moved to Syria, where three military stations were destroyed by a US-led coalition airstrike launched on Friday. Forces from France, Britain and the US targeted key military infrastructure of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime.

President Donald Trump gave green light to a military intervention following Syria’s deployment of chemical weapons on April 7 in Douma. That attack killed nearly 40 people.

 

The US dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.03 percent lower at 89.48 by the time of this writing.

 

Dollar-denominated gold is very sensitive to moves in the American currency. A stronger dollar makes the yellow metal less attractive for investors holding foreign currencies.

 

Capping gains for the metal were minutes of the Fed’s March monetary policy encounter, which reinstated the possibility of another two interest rate hikes later this year. According to policymakers, the economy will reach its 2 percent target pretty soon.

Ahead in today’s session, retail sales for March will be out as of 12:30 GMT, along with the NY Empire State manufacturing index for April. Business inventories are due at 14:00 GMT.

 

Investors will also be monitoring a series of speeches by FOMC representatives, including Kaplan and Kashkari at 16:00 GMT and Bostic as of 17:15 GMT.

 

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#25
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(April 23 – 27, 2018) 

Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs 


Here’s the market outlook for the week: 


EURUSD 

The bias is neutral in the long-term term, and bearish in the short-term. Price went southwards last week, losing up to 130 pips, after testing the resistance line at 1.2400. The support line at 1.2250 was almost tested, but price closed close to the resistance line at 1.2300. Owing to the short-term bearishness in the market, further southwards journey is anticipated, which may push price towards the support lines at 1.2250, 1.2200 and 1.2150. 



USDCHF 

The Bullish Confirmation Pattern in this market was partly brought about by the anticipated stamina in Greenback. Since testing the support level at 0.9200 on February 16, price has gained 550 pips (gaining 220 pips in this month alone), closing around the resistance level at 0.9750 on Friday. Price should continue going further upwards as EURUSD is pushed further southwards. The resistance levels at 0.9800 and 0.9850 are the targets for this week. 



GBPUSD 

The Cable consolidated in the first week of April, went upwards in the second week, and came downwards heavily in the third week (last week). After testing the distribution territory at 1.4350, price has nosedived by 350 pips, reaching the accumulation territory at 1.4000, and closing slightly below it. The bias on the market has now turned bearish, and that may be upheld this week, as the accumulation territories at 1.3950, 1.3900 and 1.3850 are aimed. 

Source: https://www.fxdailyi...nalysis&id=5643

USDJPY 

The trading instrument is bearish in the long-term, and bullish in the short-term. After price rammed into the demand level at 105.00 on March 23, it has gone upwards by 280 pips since then. Price closed above the demand level at 107.50 on Friday and it may even reach the supply levels at 108.00 and 108.50 this week…. Before the anticipated reversal occurs. The reversal may be strong enough to take price towards the demand level at 107.50. 


EURJPY 

This is a bull market in the near-term, but the bullishness in the market is very weak. Price did almost nothing last week, save some consolidating movement throughout the week. The consolidation may continue this week, but a breakout is imminent, which would most probably favor bears. Thus, the demand zones at 132.00, 131.50 and 131.00 could be reached, which may effectively challenge the recent bullishness in the market. 


GBPJPY 

There is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which was forcefully brought about by the large pullback that occurred in the market. Roughly 280 pips were shed as price closed below the supply zone at 151.00 on April 20, 2018. It is expected that further southward movement would play itself out this week, because the outlook on JPY pairs is somewhat bearish for the week. This means the accumulation territories at 150.50, 150.00 and 149.50 would be reached easily. 



This forecast is concluded with the quote below: 

“Accept that you can trade, it really isn’t as cognitively difficult as people make out. It is emotionally and psychologically difficult but it doesn’t require much brain power despite what you may be told. Therefore, it is within the realm of most to be able to understand the basics of trading.” – Chris Tate.

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#26
michel

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Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (June 25 - 29, 2018)
Here’s the market outlook for the week

 

EURUSD

The market swung upwards and downwards last week, without a directional movement. Nevertheless, the major bias remains bearish, and the outlook on EUR pairs is mostly bearish for this week. It is possible that price will test the support lines at 1.1600, 1.1550 (which were previously tested last week). Price may also reach the support line at 1.1500, and possibly breach it to the downside. But that will require a heavy selling pressure.

 

USDCHF

Price went sideways from Monday to Wednesday, and fell on Thursday and Friday, corroborating the outgoing bearish outlook on the market. Both USDCHF and EURUSD are currently bearish: But protracted bearish pressure on the latter may help a bullish signal to be generated on the former. There are support levels at 0.9850 and 0.9800. There are also resistance levels at 0.9900 and 0.9950.

 

GBPUSD

In the context of a downtrend, price went further southwards, shedding 160 pips and almost testing the accumulation territory at 1.3100. There was an upwards bounce on Thursday, but that would be an opportunity to sell short at higher prices (unless the distribution territory at 1.3400 is breached to the upside). GBP pairs (as well as other major pairs) will experience high volatility this week, and also in the first week of July.

 

USDJPY

The long-term bias is bullish, but the short-term bias is bearish. Throughout last week, price meandered between the demand level at 109.50 and the supply level at 111.00. Should price continue to move within the confines of the aforementioned demand and supply levels, the short-term bias would remain neutral. Once the confines are breached, a directional movement will resume, and it could most likely favor bulls.

 

EURJPY

Just like its USDJPY counterpart, this cross mostly ranged last week (though the recent bias on the market is bearish). For the ranging movement to end, it is either price will breach the demand zone at 127.00 to the downside (going further downwards), or price would need to breach the supply zone at 129.00 to the upside (going further upwards). One of these conditions must be met for the bearish bias to be supported or invalidated; otherwise the trend would become neutral.

 

GBPJPY

This cross underwent a heavy selling pressure on July 18 and 19, but bulls pushed price upwards on July 20 and 21. There remains a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and it would be invalidated only when price moves upwards by 500 pips from here. On the other hand, price could continue falling towards the demand zones at 145.00, 144.50 and 144.00. Price could even go further downwards than that.

 

 This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“Trading is a process-oriented endeavor for those who are serious about becoming and remaining a consistently successful trader.” – Dr. Woody Johnson


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#27
Tickmill-News

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Thanks!


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