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Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (February 26 – March 2, 2018)

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Here’s the market outlook for the week:



Dominant bias: Bearish

The market is bearish in the short-term. Since testing the resistance line at 1.2550 on February 16, price has gone south by more than 250 pips (now barely below the resistance line at 1.2300). This week, the outlook on EUR pairs is bullish. While the support lines at 1.2250 and 1.2200 could be tested, it is expected that a considerable rally will start before the end of the week, and that is something that could overturn the current short-term bearish bias.



Dominant bias: Bullish

The pair is bullish in the short-term. After the support level at 0.9200 was tried on February 16, the market gained 200 pips. It tested the resistance level at 0.9400 on Thursday, and then retraced a bit. The resistance level at 0.9400 could be tested again, and even another resistance level at 0.9450. However, an eventual rally on EURUSD would force the current upwards movement to reverse, thus threatening the short-term bullish bias. 



Dominant bias: Neutral  

There was no strong directional movement here last week. Since February 16 price has been going gradually lower (rendering the bullish outlook that was formed before February 16 invalid). Since the downwards movement is not strong, the market has essentially become neutral in the near-time. However, the neutrality would soon become a thing of the past, because a strong momentum is expected in the market, which would most probably favor bulls. The outlook on GBP pairs is mostly bullish for March 2018, although that does not rule out bearish corrections in certain cases.



Dominant bias: Bearish

The market was bearish in the long-term. A rally happened last week from Monday to Wednesday, but it was checked by the bearish correction that took place on Thursday and Friday. There are support levels at 106.50, 106.00 and ultimately at 105.50. These support levels will try to prevent further bearish correction, and that is something that could bring about another rally in the market, which would become considerable this time. 



Dominant bias: Bearish    

This cross is strongly bearish, going downwards in a steady manner since February 2, and losing at least, 600 pips since then. Nonetheless, the southwards journey will soon be over, as a strong rally is expected, which would eventually remove the current Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The outlook on JPY pairs is bullish for this week, and for the month of March. So, short trades are not advisable.  



Dominant bias: Neutral

This trading instrument is bearish in the long-term, but neutral in the short-term. The market has gone bearish by 700 pips since February 2 – but it has only moved sideways in the last two weeks. Since the low of 148.00 was tested, price has failed to go significantly lower. A base has already been formed and price could be seen moving upwards, away from the base. This month, the market is expected to go upwards by at least, 500 pips, and that will effectively bring about a bullish bias.


This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


“True trading is actually speculation (managed risk). The speculator is willing to accept the risk of price fluctuation in return for the greater leverage that comes with that risk in the hopes of earning a greater profit.” – Andy Jordan


Source: www.tallinex.com





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Yesterday’s target was reached. Buyers met with resistance at the 90th degree, from where a rebound to around 1.2340 occurred. Trading closed around the 112th degree.
The euro’s rise was brought about by Trump’s decision to sack Rex Tillerson. Since Trump immediately nominated Pompeo to the post, markets have already factored this news in and it shouldn’t have any more of an effect. According to my pricing model from the 8th of March, the pair could easily return to 1.2446. However, in order for this to happen, buyers need to cross the trend line at around 1.2450.
There are lots of speeches from the ECB today, so I don’t think the line will be broken. I think buyers will take the opportunity to test the trend line at 1.2390. If the rate drops below 1.2390, there will be an increased risk of dropping further to the 45th degree at 1.2356. By this time, it will also be supported by the LB balance line. You know when the market is in fx market holidays, Easter is coming

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