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Unrealistic/irrational expectations from traders


analyst75

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“If there were a cornerstone to trading it would be the ability not only to be resilient when in drawdown but also to accept that we get things wrong. Sometimes there is a flaw in our methodology that we have not seen and that we simply have been lucky up until this point. This does raise the question of when do you know you have entered this spiral of self destruction and to my way of thinking the answer is not that hard. If you have been losing money for the better part of a decade then it is fairly obvious that there is something seriously wrong in your methodology.” – Chris Tate

 

Can you make 1,000% returns per year from trading?

 

I DON’T THINK SO.

 

Every so I often I am party to an email from someone who should know better. This particular email was around the topic of returns that could be expected from a novice trader. This email asserted that they were looking at the order of 1,000% pa, which in anyone’s language is a tall order.

 

I can understand how people get these figures in their heads, the internet is awash with people claiming that you can give up your day job and intraday trade FX with $5,000 and live like royalty with no risk. Intriguingly I have once again started receiving spam emails from people claiming that options writing is a no risk cash flow generating strategy.

 

As such it is easy to see how peoples psyche becomes infected with this sort of nonsense and how with little real world experience they are sucked in.

 

However I was curious as to what the numbers would look like if you were making 1000% pa so I fired up Excel and let it rip with a starting balance of 1,000.

 

Please check here to see the figure: http://tradinggame.com.au/i-dont-think-so/?utm_source=Blog+Subscribers&utm_campaign=782ff57c63-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_eb90516269-782ff57c63-43344013 

 

I don’t even know how to say that last number. Suffice to say that somewhere around the first months of year 7 you are the richest person in the world and by the end of year 10 I think you have all the money.

 

Author: Chris Tate

 

Article reproduced with kind permission of:  Tradinggame.com.au

 

Another great quote ends this article:

 

“You should spend a great deal of time and thought on your exit strategies, for one very good reason: you don't make money when you enter the market, you make money when you exit the market. Far too many people focus only on market entry, or what to buy, rather than on when to sell. If you approach trading with an exit strategy, it will benefit you right away.

 

Your system should reflect your beliefs (i.e., who you are as a trader and as a person). Many people are just looking for “any system that works,” but if your trading system doesn’t match your beliefs about the markets, you will eventually find a way to sabotage your trading.” – Van Tharp Institute

 

 

www.tallinex.com wants you to become a successful trader

 

 

 

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Well whatever seems too good to be true, people should first give it a thought that there is something wrong with it. No one in this world will give you good for nothing.

Better to be realistic about our expectation, unrealistic one like a thousand profits in one night just only destroy our account faster than what we imagine. Bad thing which we could expect with that kind of traits that we will disappointed with the market easily and maybe leave forex or even worse brand forex as scammy business.

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Better to be realistic about our expectation, unrealistic one like a thousand profits in one night just only destroy our account faster than what we imagine. Bad thing which we could expect with that kind of traits that we will disappointed with the market easily and maybe leave forex or even worse brand forex as scammy business.

 

There are people who think forex is of no good after losing money. I have heard of those kinds of thing before. So they are not new to me. The same goes with stock market but nobody talks about stock market like that.

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There are people who think forex is of no good after losing money. I have heard of those kinds of thing before. So they are not new to me. The same goes with stock market but nobody talks about stock market like that.

Well that is because their expectations which don't meet with the reality on the market. It is harsh to say but that kind of person usually just send their money flying off to the market, their money like animal sacrifice for nothing but adds the value of the market. Unrealistic expecation in the end is not a healthy habit.

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In the end the world will be like this, there will be at least few other traders who have unrealistic expectations even me when i start to deal with real account trading. I think i could get BEP in my first 15 months but up to now still struggling. Make realistic expectations in long term would be so much helpful.

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Well that is because their expectations which don't meet with the reality on the market. It is harsh to say but that kind of person usually just send their money flying off to the market, their money like animal sacrifice for nothing but adds the value of the market. Unrealistic expecation in the end is not a healthy habit.

Agree with you but people have those when they see something good is happening to them. Specially when it is related to money. I have had my unrealistic expectations and learned my lesson in a harsh manner. Now I use the motto that "it is not yours until you posses it". No matter how promising things looks to me, I work hard for it but don't get my expectations high.

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Unrealistic expectation is a great killer, i've been see a lot of traders shattered just because their reality don't meet their expectations. Harsh reality wakes them up and suddenly they scared to invest more and even worst quit forex and think it as a scammy industry made for newbie like them.

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Unrealistic expectation is a great killer, i've been see a lot of traders shattered just because their reality don't meet their expectations. Harsh reality wakes them up and suddenly they scared to invest more and even worst quit forex and think it as a scammy industry made for newbie like them.

All traders should know about this in order to quell their emotions and also to make them able to face the reality, forex may sound like easy to get but that is not easy at all, it is a hard business and trader need to know about that. Just by too high expectations could lead to margin call, a condition which i hope never meet once again.

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  • 4 weeks later...

one of the most important factors a trader must have is about emotional control. to see forex trading is a business full of calculations and accuracy, I think it would be difficult to achieve maximum profits if a trader can not control his own emotions.

Emotional control is indeed one of the things that we have to manage well. Because it will be more emotionally destructive everything. And the trader is to continue with the routine in the level of good trading skills which want to achieve its benefits easily and consistently and also able to survive in forex trading

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that's the reason why the trader will really need a good level of patience and a strong mentality, because so traders can get better at controlling emotions especially when they are running trading activities in real accounts.

Run the forex business that we must understand in a way in the management of good trading, forex risk is very large, so always to continue in the level of good trading ability where to we can facilitate the management of trading well and able to get consistent profit

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that's the reason why the trader will really need a good level of patience and a strong mentality, because so traders can get better at controlling emotions especially when they are running trading activities in real accounts.

Well these kinds of things does not develop in one day. It takes time and practice and experience in the market. After that they learn to control their emotions and stay disciplined and trade with a plan.

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one of the most important factors a trader must have is about emotional control. to see forex trading is a business full of calculations and accuracy, I think it would be difficult to achieve maximum profits if a trader can not control his own emotions.

This is what lead them to unrealistic expectations if they cannot control their emotion. Based from that i can see there are 2 scenarios which could happen: 1st, overconfidence that they will gain big profit in relatively short time, 2nd is they are too much afraid to take the risk which resulted an underperformance account.

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  • 1 month later...

Overconfidence? it seems like they underestimate the market and their prowess to make an accurate analysis, forex market is a risky market and that is well-known, also that name comes without any unreasonable reason, as we can see the market sometimes works against the "should" be trend and other anomaly but this is just minority, mostly they will follow the trend.

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Market does not move according to anyone's wish or as they want. The market's direction is always determined by supply and demand of collective effort of traders. In this market we can only predict what can happen and we should have rational target based on our analysis. Entering a trade and hoping for the best is not going to get us anywhere.

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Market does not move according to anyone's wish or as they want. The market's direction is always determined by supply and demand of collective effort of traders. In this market we can only predict what can happen and we should have rational target based on our analysis. Entering a trade and hoping for the best is not going to get us anywhere.

But we wished that the market works like based on our prediction. This is somehow unrealistic but understandable since that is human nature to keep making profit in foreign exchange. Some cases where i think as unrealistic expectation is you want to earn big but with smaller capital, which is purely nonsense. Big capital equals to either big profits or big loss.

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In this case when we talk about unrealistic or not, it will be slightly different from one trader to the others, I myself see that if you are good traders in around 12-15 months you can get all of your investment back. That is still make a sense target, but to make BEP in less than 6 months is too much unrealistic for me.

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But we wished that the market works like based on our prediction. This is somehow unrealistic but understandable since that is human nature to keep making profit in foreign exchange. Some cases where i think as unrealistic expectation is you want to earn big but with smaller capital, which is purely nonsense. Big capital equals to either big profits or big loss.

 

Not necessarily. Again it all depends on the trader on how he manages his money. A trader who can bring positive pips can turn a small capital in to a large amount and a trader who has a large amount and can bring positive pips can make bigger profit. The trader with bigger amount is at an advantage.

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