Jump to content

Best Change

Recommended Posts

WTI: Current Dynamics

04/22/2019

In view of the celebration of Catholic Easter (today is the Second Day of Catholic Easter - Easter Monday), the activity of participants in the financial market is small, and the exchanges and banks in Catholic countries are closed.

However, it is worth noting the sharp increase in oil prices from the opening of today's trading day on the background of the news regarding the possible cancellation of indulgences by the US on Iranian sanctions.

At the beginning of the European trading session, the price of WTI crude oil is near the mark of 65.46 dollars per barrel.

Against the background of geopolitical risks that are gaining momentum in the supply of oil, the rally in oil prices may continue. A further rise in oil prices is likely, despite the achievement of new local maxima.

 

Long-term positive dynamics persist above the key support level of 59.50 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart, Fibonacci 50% level of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the last few years near the 76.80 level to the support level near the 42.14 mark). Mostly upward trend in the price of WTI crude oil. Long positions are preferred.

Support Levels: 63.50, 61.70, 59.50, 56.50, 55.40

Resistance Levels: 66.00, 68.00

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 62.80. Stop Loss 66.20. Take-Profit 61.70, 59.50, 56.50, 55.40

Buy Stop 66.20. Stop Loss 62.80. Take-Profit 68.00, 73.00, 76.00

220419-WTI-D.png

220419-WTI-H1.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

AUD/USD: downward dynamics prevails

08/08/2019

Current Dynamics

The escalation of the trade war between the United States and China has strengthened expectations of a worsening situation in world international trade and the economy. The growth of fears about this caused a collapse of stock quotes and indices on world stock markets. Demand for safe haven assets, such as government bonds, yen, gold, has risen sharply. On Wednesday, gold prices exceeded $ 1,500 an ounce for the first time in six years. Since the beginning of the month, prices have increased by 6.9%, and from the end of May - by 15%. Yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell on Wednesday to 1.595% from 1.864% on Friday, to the lowest level since October 2016.

Last Wednesday, interest rates fell immediately by three central banks (India, New Zealand and Thailand). On Wednesday, the RBNZ lowered its official interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00%, which was the second rate cut this year.

As follows from the text of the RBNZ statement, "global economic activity continues to weaken ... increased uncertainty and reduced international trade contribute to lower economic growth in the trading partner countries ... and central banks relax monetary policy to support their economies".

The RBA last Tuesday left the key interest rate at a record low of 1%, but gave a pessimistic forecast for the economy. "It is reasonable to expect that a long period of low interest rates will be required to progress towards lowering unemployment and achieve steady progress towards the target inflation rate", Philip Lowe said on Tuesday.

At 23:30 (GMT) on Thursday, Lowe will begin speaking with members of the parliamentary committee on economics. If he points out that the key rate needs to be lowered again, then the Australian dollar will again be under pressure. In this case, the pair AUD / USD will again go “south” as part of a global downtrend.

At the beginning of the European session, the pair AUD / USD is trading near the level of 0.6787, correcting after falling on Wednesday.

Nevertheless, negative dynamics prevail, despite the correction. It is likely that the current position of AUD / USD and growth to the levels of 0.6800, 0.6816, 0.6830 will be a good opportunity to resume sales of this currency pair.

We can return to the consideration of long positions only after the growth of AUD / USD to the zone above the resistance level of 0.6910 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) with targets not higher than the key resistance level of 0.7065 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

In case of resumption of decline, the targets will be the support levels 0.6680, 0.6600. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008-2009).

Support Levels: 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300

Resistance Levels: 0.6816, 0.6830, 0.6865, 0.6910, 0.7000, 0.7065

 

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Sell-Limit 0.6800, 0.6816, 0.6830. Stop-Loss 0.6870. Take-Profit 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300

Buy Stop 0.6870. Stop-Loss 0.6810. Take-Profit 0.6910, 0.7000, 0.7065

080819-10-Y.png

080819-AU-D.png

080819-AU-H1.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WTI: negative momentum prevails

08/09/2019

Global financial markets remain under pressure from intensified international trade conflicts, primarily between the United States and China. The oil market does not stand aside. Oil prices are actively declining, having lost about 25% over the past 12 months.

Last Thursday, the price reached a new 7-month low near $ 50.47 per barrel of WTI crude oil after Donald Trump announced the introduction of new duties on the import of Chinese goods into the United States.

The trade conflict between the United States and China reached a new level when Chinese authorities announced retaliation. In particular, Beijing banned Chinese state-owned companies from buying soybeans in the United States, and the People's Bank of China lowered the RMB to dollar exchange rate below 7.0000.

The oil market received an additional negative impetus after last Wednesday the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration reported an increase in oil reserves in the country last week (+2.385 million barrels, while oil reserves were expected to fall by 2.845 million barrels).

The fall in oil prices indicates an increase in investor anxiety about the state of the global economy, which continues to negatively affect financial markets.

The breakdown of the support level of 50.30 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the fall from the highs of the last few years near the level of 76.80 to the level of support near the mark of 42.15) and a further decrease will mean the return of WTI oil prices to the global bearish trend.

In this case, the preliminary reduction targets will be located at the support level of 42.15 (Fibonacci level of 0% and December 2018 lows).

In an alternative scenario, the signal to resume purchases will be a breakdown of the short-term resistance level 54.40 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and growth into the zone above the resistance level 55.40 (Fibonacci 38.2%) with targets at the resistance level 58.80 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Fixing the price in the zone above the resistance level of 59.50 (Fibonacci level of 50%) will speak about the resumption of the bull trend.

On Friday, oil market participants will follow the publication (at 17:00 GMT) of the weekly report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. Previous reports indicated a decrease in the number of active oil platforms in the United States, to 770 units at the moment. If the report again indicates a decrease in the number of such installations, then this may give a short-term positive impetus to prices.

However, a strong negative momentum prevails. Short positions are preferred.

Support Levels: 50.30, 49.00, 42.15

Resistance Levels: 54.40, 55.40, 56.80, 58.00, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 51.85. Stop-Loss 53.75. Take-Profit 50.30, 49.00

090819-WTI-D.png

090819-WTI-H1.png

 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

S&P500: Current Dynamics and Recommendations

08/12/2019

In July, the S&P500 rose to record highs near 3028.0, which is about 22% higher than the opening price at the beginning of the year.

The growth of US stock indexes was contributed by the expectations of lower interest rates by the Fed and the positive macro statistics coming from the USA. However,

investors' concerns about the slowdown in global economic growth and the aggravation of trade confrontation between the US and China caused a sharp increase in volatility in world stock markets and a drop in indices. After sharp fluctuations, all three leading US indices finished the week with a decline of about 1%.

S&P500 completed last week at around 2918.0.

"We are not ready to conclude an agreement, but we'll see how everything goes", Trump told reporters on Friday. "We'll see if China meets with us in September".

During today's Asian session, the S&P500 and other major US stock indexes rose, but fell again at the beginning of the European session. Thus, S&P500 futures are trading at the beginning of the European session on Monday near the level of 2907.0, 14 points below the opening price today.

The S&P500 futures are trading below resistance levels at 2944.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 2934.0, 2920.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

Below the short-term resistance level of 2920.0, short positions with targets located near the support levels of 2845.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 2865.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to growth since December 2018 and mark 2335.0) are preferable. Above these support levels, the S&P500 bullish trend remains.

The breakdown of support levels 2845.0, 2865.0 can trigger a deeper decline to support levels 2765.0 (Fibonacci 38.2%), 2680.0 (Fibonacci 50%).

You can return to shopping after fixing the S&P500 in the zone above the resistance level of 2944.0.

Support levels: 2900.0, 2865.0, 2845.0, 2765.0, 2730. 2680.0

Resistance Levels: 2920.0, 2934.0, 2944.0, 2965.0, 3000.0, 3028.0

 

Trading recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 2945.0. Goals 2900.0, 2865.0, 2845.0, 2800.0

Buy Stop 2945.0. Stop-Loss 2910.0. Goals 2965.0, 3000.0, 3028.0, 3100.0, 3200.0

[img]https://i.postimg.cc/2Sxbqg1q/120819-10-Y.png[/img]

[img]https://i.postimg.cc/nLcsqTm3/120819-S500-D.png[/img]

[img]https://i.postimg.cc/dVFZVJVP/120819-S500-H1.png[/img]

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EUR/USD: what awaits Eurodollar

08/13/2019

After the ECB signaled in July that it was ready to soften its monetary policy, EUR / USD hit a new annual low near 1.1100, but then adjusted to current levels.

Since the opening of today's trading day, the Eurodollar has moderately decreased, while continuing to trade in the range near the short-term support level of 1.1185 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) and short-term resistance level of 1.1200 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).

Expectations of further easing of the monetary policy of the ECB put pressure on the euro and the pair EUR / USD. It is likely that at the ECB meeting on September 12 a whole package of measures will be taken, including a 0.25% reduction in the interest rate and a restart of the quantitative easing program worth 2.6 trillion euros.

At the same time, despite Trump's criticism of the Fed and its monetary policy, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut, the dollar continues to be in demand among investors.

Underestimated risks that the UK will leave the European Union on October 31 without any agreement on Brexit, political and economic differences within Eurozone, as well as the accelerating devaluation of national currencies in a number of countries (at the beginning of the month there are three central banks at once - India, Thailand, New Zealand - reduced interest rates), only add the negative in relation to the mood of the business.

Investors are concerned about the escalation of the trade conflict between the US and China (from September 1, the US is expected to introduce new 10% import duties on Chinese goods). On the other hand, the American economy looks more stable in comparison with other major world economies and continues to grow, which causes an influx of investment in American assets and the dollar.

Below the resistance levels 1.1315 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), long-term negative dynamics persist.

An upward correction is also possible, but so far no higher than the resistance levels of 1.1245 (the upper line of the descending channel on the daily chart and the highs of August), 1.1270 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).

Support Levels: 1.1185, 1.1125, 1.1070, 1.1000

Resistance Levels: 1.1200, 1.1245, 1.1270, 1.1285, 1.1315

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1250. Take-Profit 1.1125, 1.1070, 1.1000

Buy Stop 1.1250. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1270, 1.1285, 1.1315

[img]https://i.postimg.cc/FKswwNHV/130819-DXY.png[/img]

[img]https://i.postimg.cc/sXH6khNV/130819-EU-D.png[/img]

[img]https://i.postimg.cc/d37HwVbG/130819-EU-H1.png[/img]

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

AUD/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations

08/14/2019

As reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday, the wage index in the 2nd quarter grew by 0.6% and by 2.3% in annual terms. The forecast was + 0.5% and + 2.2%, respectively.

The data were better than expected. However, this is not enough to accelerate inflation. RBA Governor Philip Lowe called slower wage growth and productivity a major economic challenge.

Earlier this month, RB of Australia left the key interest rate at a record low of 1%, but gave a pessimistic forecast for the economy. RBA managing director Philip Lowe lowered the forecast for Australia's GDP growth in 2019 to 2.5% from 2.75% and added that unemployment is expected to drop to about 5% in the next two years. According to the RBA management, for the growth of salaries and acceleration of inflation to the target range, an unemployment rate of 4.5% or lower is required. Now unemployment is at the level of 5.2% and is gradually growing, but not decreasing, and the return of inflation to the middle of the target range of 2% -3% is not visible even on a distant horizon.

"It is reasonable to expect that a long period of low interest rates will be required to progress towards lowering unemployment and achieve steady progress towards the target inflation rate", Lowe said after an RBA meeting in August.

On Thursday (01:30 GMT) data from the Australian labor market will be published. Most likely, in July unemployment remained unchanged at 5.2%.

The expectation of further easing of the monetary policy of the RBA puts pressure on the AUD in the direction of its further weakening.

Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened on Tuesday after the publication of data on consumer inflation in the United States, which turned out to be better than forecast, and after the White House announced that it would postpone the introduction of new tariffs on imports of some Chinese goods until December 15.

At the beginning of the European session on Wednesday, the pair AUD / USD is trading near the level of 0.6760. Negative dynamics prevails.

Entry into short positions is allowed "by the market". A possible correctional increase to the resistance levels of 0.6795 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.6830, 0.6865 (May lows), 0.6885 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) will be an additional opportunity to resume sales of this currency pair.

We can return to the consideration of long positions only after the growth of AUD / USD to the zone above the resistance level of 0.6885 with targets located no higher than the key resistance level of 0.7050 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

In case of resumption of decline, the targets will be the support levels 0.6680, 0.6600. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).

Support Levels: 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300

Resistance Levels: 0.6795, 0.6830, 0.6865, 0.6885, 0.7000, 0.7050

 

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Sell-Limit 0.6795, 0.6825. Stop-Loss 0.6840. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300

Buy Stop 0.6840. Stop-Loss 0.6790. Take-Profit .6865, 0.6885, 0.7000, 0.7050

140819-AU-D.png

140819-AU-H4.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NZD/USD: dynamics and recommendations

08/15/2019

Since the opening of today's trading day, the American dollar has been declining. At the beginning of today's European session, DXY dollar index futures are trading near 97.70, 12 pips below the opening price of today's trading day. Meanwhile, commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar, also remain under pressure amid a worsening trade war between the US and China.

New Zealand's export-oriented economy is extremely vulnerable amid escalating trade war between the US and China.

Last week, the RBNZ cut the rate by 50 bp to 1.00%, explaining this decision by the worsening trade war between the US and China and the loss of momentum in the New Zealand economy.

RBNZ leaders believe that wage growth remains weak. At the same time, inflationary expectations are falling, and low levels of business confidence indicate a slowdown in hiring and wage growth.

There is growing concern among participants in international financial markets that the slowdown in economic growth and the threat of recession will spread to the whole world, including China, the United States, and their trade and economic partners. It can be assumed that the global cycle of rate cuts will gain momentum in the next few months.

In the current situation, further easing of the monetary policy of the RB of New Zealand should be expected, which is a strong negative factor for NZD.

Currently, NZD / USD is trading near the level and the local support level of 0.6430 (October 2018 lows).

A breakdown of this level will provoke a further decrease in NZD / USD with targets at support levels of 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260 (Fibonacci level of 0% and minimums of the global wave of pair decline from the level of 0.8820).

Short positions are preferable, unless, of course, the Fed also begins to aggressively lower the interest rate amid ongoing events in the financial markets.

Below the resistance level of 0.6680 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the bearish trend NZD / USD prevails.

  Support Levels: 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260

Resistance Levels: 0.6480, 0.6570, 0.6635, 0.6680, 0.6700, 0.6790

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 0.6490. Take-Profit 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6260

Buy Stop 0.6510. Stop-Loss 0.6460. Take-Profit 0.6570, 0.6600, 0.6680

150819-DXY.png

150819-NU-D.png

150819-NU-H4.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EUR/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations

08/16/2019

With the opening of today's trading day, Eurodollar is again declining. Market participants are preparing for the next ECB meeting in September and new stimulus measures by the European Central Bank.

According to Olli Rehn, member of the ECB Governing Council, the European Central Bank at its meeting in September will announce a substantial stimulus package that will exceed investor expectations.

The ECB is likely to announce a 0.1% reduction in the key interest rate, which is now -0.4%, as well as an allocation of about 50 billion euros per month for additional bond purchases under the quantitative easing program.

Published disappointing economic data from China and Germany this week, as well as positive macro data from the United States, made market participants even more doubt the prospects for global economic growth, and also again updated the attractiveness of American assets and a more stable state of the US economy.

According to official data released on Thursday, US retail sales in July rose 0.7% (forecast was + 0.3%).

Retail sales data are encouraging regarding the US economy, that remains demand for US assets and the dollar.

Today (at 14:00 GMT) the University of Michigan consumer confidence index (preliminary release for August) will be published, which reflects the confidence of American consumers in the country's economic development. It is expected that this indicator will come out in August with a value of 97.7 (against 98.4 in July), which could negatively affect the dollar (in the short term) due to a relative decrease in the indicator. Data better than expected will certainly support the dollar, and will put additional pressure on EUR / USD.

Below the resistance levels of 1.1305 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), long-term negative dynamics persist. In the current situation, short positions look relevant and safer, and the reduction targets are located at support levels 1.1000, 1.0000.

You can return to purchases as part of the corrective growth of EUR / USD only after fixing the price in the zone above the short-term resistance level of 1.1160 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

Support Levels: 1.1070, 1.1000, 1.0000

Resistance Levels: 1.1125, 1.1160, 1.1190, 1.1245, 1.1260, 1.1285, 1.1305

 

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1130. Take-Profit 1.1070, 1.1000, 1.0000

Buy Stop 1.1130. Stop-Loss 1.1060. Take-Profit 1.1160, 1.1190, 1.1245, 1.1260, 1.1285

160819-DXY.png

160819-EU-D.png

160819-EU-H1.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...