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#261
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XAU/USD: demand for gold will continue

11/04/2018

Current dynamics

The focus of traders today will be the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the minutes from the March Fed meeting. At this meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to increase the range of the key interest rate by a quarter of percentage points to 1.5% -1.75% and raised the forecast for the growth of the US economy for the next two years.

"The outlook for the economy has improved in recent months", the Fed said in an official statement following the meeting. The central bank expects GDP growth of 2.7% this year and 2.4% in 2019 against earlier forecasts of 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively, and predict annual inflation at 2,1% next year against 2% in the previous forecast. Investors were disappointed that the Fed confirmed the intention to raise another 2 times the rate this year. However, the new forecasts published after the meeting indicated that the Fed could accelerate the rate of rate hikes in order to cool down the economy after 2019. And this is now the main intrigue - how high is the probability that the Fed will make 4 rate increases this year, rather than 3, as it was planned earlier. In a statement by the Fed following the results of the March meeting, it was said that the risks appear to be approximately balanced.

Nevertheless, there was one significant negative factor. The leaders of the Federal Reserve took a cautious approach to the introduction of duties and other restrictions on trade with China.  Investors now need to know how the Fed will react in the event of increased tensions.

It is likely that the number of supporters of a more balanced approach with regard to the rate of further rate increases may increase. It is characteristic that the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan said on Monday that this year he expects two more interest rate hikes. At the same time, he believes that in the coming years the rate of rate hikes will decrease due to a slowdown in the economy.

The aging of the population, the slow increase in labor resources, the slow growth of productivity, and the high level of public debt can become deterrents to GDP growth in the next few years, the president of the Fed-Dallas said. For this reason, the Fed should raise rates "gradually and patiently", he added.

On Monday, the Budget Office of the US Congress published its forecast, according to which the state budget deficit by 2020 will exceed the $ 1 trillion mark.

The recent tax cuts and the increase in budget expenditures create prerequisites for the growth of the federal budget deficit. In addition, the growing deficit of the US foreign trade balance, coupled with the trade conflict with China, makes investors cautious about buying dollars. The dollar remains under pressure, despite the Fed's rate hike.

Under normal conditions, tightening monetary policy of the Fed strengthens the dollar and leads to a decrease in gold quotations.

But at the moment, the dollar is getting cheaper, and gold is rising in price, as geopolitical risks, connected with the prospect of new trade wars, are brought to the forefront.

Perhaps, the trade conflict will not be aggravated, but it is too early to say about its completion. Volatility and negative dynamics of the stock market will continue, at least until the end of May, given the planned introduction of customs duties in the US. Against this background, the demand for gold will continue.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

 

Support levels: 1335.00, 1330.00, 1310.00, 1300.00, 1277.00, 1268.00

Resistance levels: 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00

 

Trade recommendations

Sell ​​Stop 1339.00. Stop-Loss 1355.00. Take-Profit 1335.00, 1330.00, 1310.00, 1300.00

Buy Stop 1355.00. Stop-Loss 1339.00. Take-Profit 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00, 1425.00

 

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110418-_XU-_H4.png

 

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 


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#262
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USD/CHF: amid positive macro statistics

12/04/2018

Current dynamics

Against the background of positive macro statistics, received on Wednesday from the US, and after the publication of the minutes from the March meeting of the Fed, the dollar strengthens against the defensive assets such as gold, yen, franc.

As follows from published protocols, the leaders of the Fed are more confident in achieving a target inflation rate of 2% during the year, confirming plans for a gradual increase in interest rates. At the December meeting, the leaders of the Fed planned to raise the interest rate in 2018, and they confirmed two more rate hikes.

In the past year, the drop in unemployment was the argument for higher rates. Since October 2017, unemployment is 4.1%, remaining near the lowest level in 18 years. The leaders also said that the weakening of inflation is temporary, and inflationary pressures have grown in recent months. As reported on Wednesday by the Ministry of Labor, the basic consumer price index in the US rose in March by 2.1% compared to a year earlier. This is the strongest growth in the index since February 2017.

The dollar also replayed a part of losses on the publication on Tuesday of the producer price index (PPI), which in March rose by 0.3% compared to the previous month, which may speak of increasing inflationary pressure in the economy.

Now investors will pay attention to the fact that the basic index of prices for personal consumption expenditures, which the Fed prefers, in March grew by 1.9% compared to March 2017. The Ministry of Commerce will publish it later this month. In February, the growth of the index was 1.6% (with the target level of 2.0%).

This index is preferred for the Fed in determining the level of inflation. But if it turns out to be worse than the forecast, then the probability of 4 rate increases this year will significantly decrease, which will have a negative impact on the dollar.

From the news for today, we are waiting for publication at 12:30 (GMT) of data on the number of new (initial) applications for unemployment benefits in the US over the past week. The result above the expected indicates a weak labor market, which has a negative impact on the US dollar, and vice versa. Previous value of 242 000, forecast - 230 000, which should positively affect the dollar in case of confirmation of the forecast.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

 

Support levels: 0.9610, 0.9600, 0.9575, 0.9520, 0.9445, 0.9400, 0.9300

Resistance levels: 0.9640, 0.9690, 0.9745, 0.9810, 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9970, 1.0000

 

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 0.9650. Stop-Loss 0.9590. Take-Profit 0.9690, 0.9745, 0.9810, 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9970, 1.0000

Sell ​​Stop 0.9590. Stop-Loss 0.9650. Take-Profit 0.9575, 0.9520, 0.9445, 0.9400, 0.9300

120418-_UC-_D.png

 

120418-_UC-_H4.png

 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 


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#263
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AUD/USD: commodity currencies increased against the backdrop of risks with raw material supplies

13/04/2018

Current dynamics

As part of his speech on Wednesday, RBA Governor Philip Lowe said that "the central bank needs good reasons to change its policy". Earlier this month, when the RBA kept the interest rate at 1.5%, Philip Lowe said that "it is likely that inflation will remain weak, reflecting the slow growth in labor costs and high competition in the retail sector". In his opinion, the RBA will not follow other central banks of the world, which are prone to tightening policies.

Economists predict that official inflation data, expected later in April, will show a 0.4% increase in consumer prices in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter and 1.8% compared with the first quarter of 2017, when this rate of core inflation will be slightly higher.

Taking into account the attention that the RBA assigns to achieving the target inflation range (2% -3%), an increase in interest rates is not expected in the coming months.

This is a negative factor for the Australian dollar. Nevertheless, on Friday the Australian dollar is growing, including in cross-pairs and against the US dollar.

Its strengthening is supported by the growth of world commodity prices against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, as well as positive data on China's foreign trade balance, which is Australia's closest and largest trading partner.

Last Thursday, oil prices reached new three-year highs due to increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a decrease in oil production in OPEC and Russia.

WTI futures for NYMEX rose 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $ 67.07 per barrel. Futures for aluminum in the first half of the European session traded with an increase of 1.75%, at 2323.50 dollars per ton. Over the last week, aluminum prices have added 13.1%. Copper futures rose 0.54% to 6859 dollars per ton.

Australia is the world's largest supplier of primary commodities; primarily iron ore, liquefied gas, coal, which accounts for 10% of the country's total foreign trade, oil and oil products, and gold.

China accounts for 25% of Australia's total exports and 13% of imports to Australia.

According to official data released on Friday, the surplus of foreign trade in March was 326.1 billion yuan, and imports to China increased by 14.4%, including through the importation of raw materials into the country. Australia as a supplier of raw materials to China is at the forefront.

Despite the fact that the RBA intends to maintain a soft monetary policy, as the RBA said on Wednesday Philip Lowe, the Australian dollar is growing.

Even though the different focus of monetary policy in the US and Australia is the main most important long-term factor in favor of weakening AUD / USD, today AUD / USD is growing. Risks associated with interruptions in the supply of primary commodities to the world market are coming to the fore.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

 

Support levels: 0.7760, 0.7690, 0.7645, 0.7620, 0.7590, 0.7500, 0.7330

Resistance levels: 0.7820, 0.7840, 0.7900, 0.7930, 0.8000, 0.8100, 0.8130

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 0.7750. Stop-Loss 0.7810. Take-Profit 0.7700, 0.7690, 0.7645, 0.7620, 0.7590, 0.7500, 0.7330

Buy Stop 0.7830. Stop-Loss 0.7750. Take-Profit 0.7840, 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000

 

130418-_AU-_D.png

 

130418-_AU-_H4.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 


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#264
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S&P500: the intensity has been asleep; investors switched attention to economic data

16/04/2018

Current dynamics

In recent weeks, investors have been alarmed by geopolitical tensions, by lower than expected macroeconomic data, and trade conflicts.

Investors sighed with relief after the air strikes on Syria, inflicted on Saturday, did not lead to a serious aggravation of the conflict and not escalate into a large-scale military conflict. A representative of the Pentagon said that a single wave of blows has been completed so far. President Donald Trump on Saturday wrote on Twitter that "the task is completed".

The yield of 10-year US government bonds rose to 2.851% from 2.828%. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the other 6 major currencies, is declining from the opening of the trading day, dropping from 89.50 to 89.28 at the beginning of the US trading session.

Uncertainty may increase again, but the darkest scenario has not yet been realized, which allowed the risky assets to recover. Investors turned their attention to economic data and corporate reporting. On Monday, traders are waiting for new US data on retail sales. Retail sales are expected to grow by + 0.4% in March (against a decline of -0.3% in February and the previous forecast release of -0.1%), which should positively affect the US stock indexes when confirming the forecast.

Volatility in the stock markets could rise sharply on Tuesday during the Asian session, when at 02:00 (GMT) Chinese data on economic growth (GDP for the first quarter) and the March business activity statistics and industrial production, as well as the level of retail sales will be published.

This will be particularly reflected in the dynamics of Asian stock indices, but will affect the US indices as well.

Also it is worth paying attention to today's speech by representatives of the Fed (at 16:00 and 17:15 GMT). If they touch on the topic of monetary policy in the US, then volatility in the dynamics of US stock indices will grow (in the short term).

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

 

Support levels: 2650.0, 2645.0, 2630.0, 2605.0, 2572.0, 2530.0, 2480.0

Resistance levels: 2680.0, 2700.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 2645.0. Stop-Loss 2685.0. Objectives 2630.0, 2605.0, 2572.0, 2530.0, 2480.0

Buy Stop 2685.0. Stop-Loss 2645.0. Objectives 2700.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

160418-s500-_D.png

 

160418-s500-_H4.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 


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#265
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GBP/USD: pound declined despite rising wages

17/04/2018

Current dynamics

Despite the data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS) at the beginning of the European session indicating that the British labor market is in good shape, the pound declined after the publication of the data. Earlier, the GBP / USD reached its highest level in 22 months at 1.4375.

The average hourly earnings of Britons (without premiums) for the period December-February increased by 2.8%, which means that real wages increased by 0.1%. This was the fastest growth rate of wages since 2015. Unemployment fell to 4.2% against 4.3% for the period November-January, the lowest level since 1975. The data indicate that the UK labor market remains healthy.

Probably, the presented data will strengthen expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates to 0.75% at its May meeting (May 10). Earlier, the Bank of England signaled that in the coming years it plans to raise rates three or more times to contain inflation.

Despite the current growth, the pound is undervalued, which implies its further possible growth.

In November, the Bank of England raised its key interest rate for the first time in a decade to contain inflation. Recently, central bank officials signaled that the rate may need to be raised earlier than originally expected. This is a strong factor in favor of strengthening the pound.

Nevertheless, there are still a lot of uncertainties in the issue of leaving the UK from the EU, and the Teresa May government is weak, and the Bank of England against this background may postpone the issue of tightening monetary policy.

Today, the focus of traders will be the publication of a block of important macro data for the US at 12:30 (GMT), and between 13:15 and 17:10, several members of the FOMC (Williams, Quorles, Harker, Evans) are scheduled to perform. If they touch upon the subject of the monetary policy of the Fed and speak in favor of faster rates of tightening of the policy of the American central bank, the dollar may strengthen for a short time, including in the GBP / USD. The tougher the rhetoric of their speeches, the stronger the dollar will be strengthened.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

 

Support levels: 1.4302, 1.4263, 1.4205, 1.4100, 1.4075, 1.3970, 1.3725, 1.3600

Resistance levels: 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760

 

Trading Scenarios

Buy Limit 1.4305, 1.4265. Stop-Loss 1.4225. Take-Profit 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760

Buy Stop 1.1.4350. Stop-Loss 1.4285. Take-Profit 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575, 1.4760

170418-_GU-_D.png

 

170418-_GU-_H4.png

 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 


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#266
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Brent: price growth has resumed

18/04/2018

Current dynamics

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), which was published on Tuesday evening, oil reserves in the US fell by 1 million barrels in the week of April 7 - 13, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell by 2.5 million barrels and 0.854 million barrels, respectively.

Against the background of forecasts of the stocks falling in the US, oil prices rose on Wednesday. Futures for Brent crude at ICE recently rose in price by 0.68%, to 72.00 dollars per barrel. Futures for oil WTI on NYMEX added 0,83%, to 67.00 dollars per barrel.

On Wednesday (14:30 GMT), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish an official report on reserves. Economists expect the fall in oil and oil products stocks in the week of April 7 - April by 1.429 million barrels against the growth of 3.306 million barrels the previous week.

In anticipation of a positive outlook for oil reserves and after the API report, the spot price for Brent crude rose at the beginning of the European session to $ 72.00 per barrel. In the oil market there is again an increased interest of investors in purchases.

At the end of last week, oil prices reached the highest level in more than three years. At the weekend, a coalition led by the United States struck a missile strike on Syria, which increased geopolitical risks, as well as the risks of possible interruptions in the supply of oil from the Asian region.

Coupled with the likelihood of the US imposing sanctions against Iran, such a situation could lead to a crisis in the supply of oil. Iran is the largest supplier of oil, possessing about 10% of all the world's proven oil reserves. And if sanctions are imposed on Iran again, the country will not be able to supply oil to the world market, which inevitably entails a decrease in the world supply of oil and, consequently, a rise in prices for it.

As you know, OPEC and 10 other oil-producing countries, including Russia, have reduced total production by 1.8 million barrels a day since the beginning of last year. The term of the agreement, aimed at limiting the excess of the world supply, expires at the end of 2018.

On Friday in Saudi Arabia, OPEC ministers will discuss the possibility of maintaining oil production restrictions next year.

Last month, the media reported that OPEC intends next year to continue joint efforts to reduce the supply of oil.

If the parties to the production cut-off agreement decide to extend the agreement for the next year under this agreement, even the growing oil production in the US will not be able to influence the prospect of further price increases. According to Baker Hughes data, published last Friday, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US increased by 7 units to 815 units. According to a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA),

The United States increased oil production by 1.34 million barrels per day in comparison with last March, ranking second in the world in terms of oil production after Russia, outstripping Saudi Arabia.

Geopolitical risks that can lead to supply disruptions, as well as OPEC's intention to extend the agreement on limiting oil production, increase the pressure on oil prices towards their further growth. Even despite the growth of oil production in the US, the world oil supply will not be able to cover the demand for it in this case.

As the UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrui, who is the OPEC president at the time, said earlier, OPEC is now "more concerned about the supply shortage than its excess". Rally oil prices, it seems, is not going to end.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

 

Support levels: 70.75, 70.00, 68.50, 66.70, 66.00, 65.00, 63.00, 62.40, 60.00, 57.50

Resistance levels: 72.00, 73.00, 73.50

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 70.70. Stop-Loss. Take-Profit, 70.00, 68.50, 66.70, 66.00, 65.00, 63.00

Buy Stop 72.10. Stop-Loss 70.70. Take-Profit 73.00, 73.50, 75.00

180418-_Brent-_D.png

 

180418-_Brent-_H4.png

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 


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#267
TifiaFX

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USD/CAD: The rate remained at the same level, however ...

19/04/2018

Current dynamics

The Canadian dollar fell after the Bank of Canada left the rate at the previous level of 1.25% on Wednesday. In the accompanying statement, the central bank expressed its concern over international trade conflicts and weaker economic expectations, pointing to the problems of the export sector and the housing market.

"Despite the higher demand in the world economy, the growth of investment (Canadian) companies focused on exports will be limited by the increased uncertainty surrounding foreign trade and concerns about regulatory rules. In addition, after the tax reform in the United States, the question of likely investors switching to US assets", the central bank said.

The decision to keep the key rate at the previous level was widely expected. Many of the economists pointed to the uncertainty surrounding the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as the main reason for this outcome of the next meeting of the central bank.

According to a statement issued on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will remain cautious and will focus on incoming economic data. Despite the decision of the Bank of Canada to keep the rate at the same level, many economists believe that the statement of the Bank of Canada was "balanced".

Despite the decline, after the decision of the Bank of Canada, the Canadian dollar gets support from rising oil prices. The bulk of Canadian exports accounted for the share of oil and petroleum products. As the world's largest exporter of oil, petroleum products and liquefied gas, the Canadian economy is receiving tangible benefits from rising oil prices.

Apparently, the pair USD / CAD decline will resume if the oil market still has a bullish trend, and in the negotiating process for NAFTA there will be tangible progress. The Bank of Canada also said on Wednesday that "raising interest rates will be justified with time", however, there are no more precise terms.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

 

Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050

Resistance levels: 1.2630, 1.2660, 1.2700, 1.2740, 1.2770, 1.2820, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200

190418-_UCD-_D.png

 

190418-_UCD-_H4.png

 *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 


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