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Coal Fundamental Analysis


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Rally of coal prices ended at the close of trading on Tuesday, the first weakness in five consecutive trading days. On Tuesday's trading, coal prices for September contracts of 2017, the most active contract on the Rotterdam commodities exchange, closed down 1.16% or 1 point at $ 84.95 / metric ton.

 

The September 2017 contract's coal price finally broke the rally posted for four consecutive trading days before, as oil prices extended their losses. WTI is unable to hold gains above $ 50 a barrel this month on investor concerns about an increase in supply that exceeds production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and a number of non-OPEC countries.

 

As is known, the price of coal can follow the movement of oil given its impact on the cost of production and transportation as well as the influence on overall sentiment in the energy market.

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Coal prices posted a weekly gain in the fifth week last week, although it closed lower at the end of trading Friday (18/08/2017). On Friday's trade, coal prices for January 2018 contracts, the most-active contract on the Rotterdam commodities exchange, closed down 0.03% or 0.02 points at $ 78.20 / metric ton.

 

Since early last week, coal has strengthened to 1.41 points or 1.09%. This is the strengthening of weekly coal for the fifth consecutive time. The strengthening of commodity prices in the European market is underpinned by falling supply from China and expectations of increased demand in regional markets.

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Coal prices again closed at the highest level in the last three years in trading yesterday. On Wednesday's trade, coal prices for January 2018 contracts, the most-active contract on the Rotterdam commodities exchange, closed up 1.43% or 1.30 points at US $ 92.35 / metric ton.

 

The January 2018 coal price rebound rallies continued after after earlier trading on Tuesday (17/10) closed up 0.05% or 0.05 point to US $ 91.05 / metric ton. Bloomberg Intelligence economist said China and India, which account for one-third of the world's total coal demand, are expected to import more thermal coal by the end of this year to meet the growing demand for electricity.

 

The strengthening of the coal price is in line with the crude oil price rally, albeit held back by a rise in the amount of US fuel stockpiles that offset the gains triggered by tensions in Iraq.

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The weaker coal price continued until the end of the third consecutive day of trading on Monday, amid reports of increased coal production in China. At the end of trading, the contract price of the coal was observed to close down 0.67% or 0.60 points at US $ 89.50 / metric ton.

 

The January 2018 contract coal price continued its weakness in the third consecutive day of trading since it closed down 1.95% at 90.55. Reported by Bloomberg, coal production in China reached its highest level since June. Coal miners in China are encouraged to increase supply before winter.

 

Based on data from the China Bureau of Statistics, coal production in September increased 7.6% compared to the same month the previous year to 298.12 million tons. Since the beginning of the year to September the number of production reached 2.6 billion tons, up 5.7% compared with the same period the previous year.

 

In contrast to the black stone, US crude oil prices rose close to the $ 52 per barrel level buoyed by investor confidence that OPEC countries remain adherent to a deal on production cuts.

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The coal price rally came to an end yesterday, in line with weaker crude oil prices. On Wednesday's trade, coal prices for January 2018 contracts, the most active contract on the Rotterdam commodity bourse, closed down 1.05% or 1 point at US $ 94.55 / metric ton.

 

The January 2018 coal price contract slipped into the red zone after posting a rally for five consecutive trading days earlier. On Tuesday trading, black stone even ended up 0.79% or 0.75 points at 95.55, the highest level of all-time contract.

 

The fact that the market is impacting profit-taking after the closure of the pipeline at Forties shows that the market is still struggling towards a price-strengthening trend. Now, basically we are at the same level one month ago.

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