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Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart


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265 replies to this topic

#41
Andrea ForexMart

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Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 20, 2016

 

The pair is experiencing a retracement as the USD outperforms the NZD, halting the bird’s third consecutive day of uptrends. The kiwi dollar is trading just eight pips above the 0.70 handle as of time of writing.

 

Data pointing to the opposite situation was released today. The GlobalDairyTrade(GDT) index rose by 3.8 percent from 2.1 percent. Whole milk powder, New Zealand’s biggest export goods, grew by 7.5 percent, while skim milk powder added 0.3 percent.

 

Meanwhile, the US’ housing data tumbled with only 1.086 building permits issued from 1.777 million in the previous month. Housing starts skidded to 1.089 million from last year’s 1.194 million.

 

The first support is at 0.6840 and 0.6656 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.6926 and 0.7068 subsequently.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is dropping.

 

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#42
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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 21, 2016

 

The GBP/USD strengthened as the pair positively increased earlier despite oil prices gains and the attraction in risky assets. The Brexit rivals count has been decreased. Perhaps, there had been a positive impact on the British people the deterrents of government lately regarding the immense effect of the country exit from the European Union.

 

The first support occurs at 1.4320 and at 1.4240 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.4400 and at 1.4480 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays an ascending motion and the Kijun-sen creates a horizontal movement. The ascending movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is correcting.

 

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#43
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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: April 22, 2016

 

The Eurozone’s interest rate was kept parked at 0 percent, ECB president Mario Draghi said on Thursday. The announcement sent the Euro to the bulls but traders’ reaction quickly dissipated, sending the pair to 1.12 levels.

 

Draghi dismissed reports that helicopter money will soon enter the picture, generally showing an upbeat look on the economy. He kept doors open for a negative interest rate in the future.

 

Inflation was at 0 percent last month, largely missing ECB’s target of almost 2 percent. Draghi said that the inflation should rise before 2016 ends.

 

The ECB president also responded to Germany’s criticisms on the former’s soft monetary policies.

 

"We have a mandate to pursue price stability for the whole of the eurozone and not only for Germany alone,” he said.

 

The market is now waiting for reactions from Fed.

 

The MACD is currently below its 9-day EMA, reaching an intraday high of 1.1311. The spot rate is 1.1282 at the time of writing and is still declining. The pair is facing an immediate support at 1.129 and 1.1162, subsequently, while immediate resistance is at 1.1341 and 1.1397 subsequently.

 

The Eurozone’s monthly manufacturing and services PMI are the next stimulus for the pair. Figures will be released later today.

 

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#44
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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: April 22, 2016

 

The Aussie dollar is retracing despite high iron prices, and rallying commodity prices and risk sentiment. The AUD slipped to 0.7726 from today’s high of 0.7775 due to a recovering USD and flat oil prices.

 

Shortly after ECB President Mario Draghi announced that the Eurozone’s interest rate will remain at 0 percent yesterday, the pair reached 0.78 cents, but similar to the EUR/USD, dipped as well.

 

The pair’s 4-hour MACD shows a bearish divergence, but the long-term weekly MACD is pushing for a bullish convergence. The MACD indicator is in neutral location.

 

The pair’s first support occurs at 0.7684 and 0.7646 subsequently, while its first resistance is at 0.7787 and 0.7826.

 

The greenbacks’ side is fairly quiet with no data outflow later today.

 

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#45
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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: April 25, 2016

 

Further than what is anticipated, the Manufacturing PMI in Germany increased in the past month. It can be seen in the index that it grew by 51.9 contrary to the 50.7 in the recent month. Nevertheless, experts had expected the growth of index to 51.0.  

 

The first support occurs at 1.1150 and at 1.1050 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.1260 and at 1.1350 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display a descending motion. This movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.


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#46
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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: April 25, 2016

 

After the Australian dollar shot up to a 10-month high last week at 0.7834, it entered a bearish weekend and is still extending losses. The exchange rate is now at 0.7716 although it posted a day high of 0.7728 earlier which was almost immediately trimmed.

 

The AUD has the rising commodity prices and a generally weak USD to reverse the uptrend, but we are expecting the losses to extend at least until the Q1 CPI on Tuesday.  Exports and imports figures will be published on Wednesday. RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle will also deliver a speech on Thursday that may foreshadow the direction of future monetary policies.

 

The highlight this week is the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday about its interest rates. Consumer confidence is also due on Tuesday.

 

The first support is at 0.7661 and 0.7622 subsequently while the first resistance is at 0.7743 and 0.7781 subsequently.

 

The MACD indicator is in negative territory. The price is rising.

 

Australian markets are on a break today as it celebrates the Anzac day.


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#47
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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: April 26, 2016

 

On Monday, the dollar fell contrary to the yen, bidding goodbye to the three weeks of growth. The market was expecting for the Fed and BoJ meeting.

 

The first support occurs at 110.60 and at 109.60 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 111.40 and at 112.20 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays an ascending motion and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. The ascending movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is correcting.

 
 
 

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#48
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Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 26, 2016

 

The New Zealand dollar recovered when markets opened on Tuesday while the USD index is still weak.

 

Ahead of the RBNZ’s announcement on monetary policies, the central bank’s shadow board put together by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research urged that interest rate should remain at 2.25 percent, causing the bird to fly a little higher.

 

The pair broke through yesterday’s resistance of 0.6895, peaking at 0.6897 earlier today. The kiwi dollar is currently testing 0.69 levels and is trading at a 42-pip range.

 

The initial support is at 0.6848 and 0.6814 subsequently. The immediate resistance is now at 0.6921. The MACD indicator is in negative location. The spot exchange is at 0.6893 and rising.


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#49
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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: April 26, 2016

 

Buying interest are surrounding the Euro as markets remain vigilant ahead of the FOMC meeting. Lower than expected home sales from the US also added upward pressure to the Euro.

 

Annual home sales only reached 511,000 from last year’s 519,000, hugely missing forecasts of 520,000. The spotlights are now on Fed’s two-day policy meeting that will commence later today and the announcement from the BOJ on Thursday.

 

The pair rose to 1.1301 today, almost hitting the nearest resistance of 1.1305. The next resistance is at 1.1362. The first support occurs at 1.1243 and 1.1187 subsequently.

 

The exchange rate is now at 1.1295. The MACD is in a negative location. The price is climbing.


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#50
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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 28, 2016

 

As it has been expected, the Gross Domestic Product of the UK heightened by 0.4%, while its economy made an increase of 0.6%. The interest for the pound were sustained a bit by the 10-year UK government bonds yield which showed a growth in the Bonds Market.

 

The first support stands at 1.4480 and at 1.4400 subsequently. While the first resistance occurs at 1.4560 and at 1.4650 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou span. The Tenkan-sen displays an ascending movement and the Kijun-sen creates a horizontal movement. The ascending movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is consolidating.

 

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#51
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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 3, 2016

 

In opposition to the anticipation of most of us, the Manufacturing PMI in Germany reduced. The indicator displayed the data of 51.8 contrary with 51.9 in the recent month wherein it was seasonally revised. Meanwhile, experts hoped for the index to be at the recent level of 51.9.

 

The first support occurs at 1.1450 and at 1.1350 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.1550 and at 1.1650 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an ascending motion and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. This movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is growing.

 

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#52
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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: May 3, 2016

 

The Manufacturing PMI of the USA for April heightened to 51.8. Many traders had looked forward for the index to lessen by 51 in opposition to 51.5 recorded in March. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI of Japan surpass our expectations and grew by 48.2 contrary to the report of 48.0.

 

The first support occurs at 105.80 and at 105.00 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 106.60 and at 107.40 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal motion. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is correcting.

 

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#53
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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: May 4, 2016

 

Declining to its bottom-most level since February 2013, the Markit Manufacturing PMI in the UK modulated to 49.2 in April. This data was lower than the re-assessed value of 50.7 in March and below the economists' expectation of 51.2. The Manufacturing is still one of the most unpredictable sectors of the economy and still faces challenges including poor demand in the Asian markets and the slowing down of the euro area.

 

The first support occurs at 1.4480 and at 1.4400 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4560 and at 1.4670 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display a horizontal motion. The ascending movement will remain until the price is on top of the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is strengthening.

 

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#54
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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: May 5, 2016

 

Favorable market data trimmed the Aussie dollar's losses and bounced it back to 0.75 handle in the early session.

 

Australia's statistics bureau revealed on Wednesday that retail sales gained 0.4 percent in March from February's 0.1 percent, topping a projected 0.3 percent growth. However, retail sales for the first quarter only rose by 0.5 percent, just 0.2 points shy of analysts' 0.7 percent expectations. Retail sales in Q4 of 2015 was 0.6 percent.

 

But the upbeat data still failed to propel the once-glowing USD  to 76 cents. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7492, struggling to break through 0.75 level, although it reached an intraday high of 0.7515 before sinking back down.

 

Scott Morrison, Australia's treasurer, said on Thursday that RBA deputy governor Philip Lowe will take Glenn Stevens' place as governor on September 18. Lowe will fill the post for seven years.

 

The first support occurs at 0.7416 and 0.7379. The first resistance is at 0.7488 and 0.7525. The MACD indicator is in negative location. The price is increasing.

 

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#55
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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: May 6, 2016

 

The anticipation for the US’ nonfarm payrolls blocked the AUD’s slight uptrend on Thursday session, sending it down to slump at 0.73. The current spot exchange is 0.7372.  A decline in crude oil prices and the RBA’s statement of monetary policy (SOMP) released today tightened the bears’ grip on the AUD/USD.

 

After the RBA slashed interest rates to 1.75 percent on Tuesday, its SOMP revealed further cuts on inflation forecasts. From the previous estimate of 2 to 3 percent growth, the RBA lowered its projection for the 2016 to just 1 to 2 percent. The central bank is aiming for a 2 to 3 percent inflation rate by the end of the year.

 

Forecasts for the next two years’ inflation were also revised down to 1.5 to 2.5 percent from the initial 2 to 3 percent.  RBA’s statements indicated another possible rate cut.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The first support is at 0.7459 and 0.7422 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7522 and 0.7560 subsequently. The price is falling.


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#56
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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: May 6, 2016

 

The sterling hardly reached the 1.45 level when dismal figures on the UK’s services sector was released. GBP/USD retreated to 1.44 levels and bottomed at 1.4456. The current exchange rate is 1.4496.

 

The service industry’s purchasing managers index (PMI) slimmed to 52.3 in April from the previous month’s 53.7, recording the softest PMI in three years.  Economists expected a 53.5 growth.  Traders are closely watching for the NFP data from the US which will help decide the Fed’s next move on its interest rates.  

 

The first support is at 1.4442 and 1.4403 subsequently while the first resistance is at 1.4494 and 1.4496 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in neutral location. The price is increasing.

 

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#57
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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: May 10, 2016

 

The AUD/USD has now settled at the 0.73 handle as data from China, Australia’s largest trade partner, did little to boost the Australian dollar’s value against the greenback. The AUD bottomed at 0.7299 today and peaked at 0.7351.

 

The impact of China’s bearish consumer prices, which grew by 2.3 percent in April from the same period last year, was lukewarm. Markets were expecting a 2.4 percent rise. Its PPI fell by 3.4 percent, not as much as the forecasted 3.8 percent decline. Exports and imports, which stood at -1.8 percent and -10.9 percent y/y respectively, were also on the red.

 

Buying interest on the USD firmed slightly due to an increase in wages, which was up 0.3 percent m/m in April and 2.5 percent y/y. Only 160,000 jobs were added to the nonfarm payrolls opposed to a projected 202,000 additional positions.

 

The spot exchange is now at 0.7339 and the price is rising. However, we are yet to see the AUD breach 0.74 today.

 

The immediate support is at 0.7272 and 0.7236 subsequently while the first resistance is at 0.7364 and 0.7397 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in a negative location.

 

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#58
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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: May 12, 2016

 

The increase of risk appetite caused a positive effect on investor's sentiment. As a funding currency, the yen were pressured by the optimism showed by the leading stock exchanges. However, the US and Japanese government bonds yield differential had been decreasing for many consecutive trading days. The dollar/yen pair decreased by the end of the trades.

 

The first support occurs at 108.20 and at 107.40 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 109.00 and at 109.80 subsequently.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is consolidating.

 

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#59
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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: May 13, 2016

 

The significant event on Thursday was the inflation report of the Bank of England. As we have expected, the Central Bank statements about the economy and the inflation increase were quite negative. The rate remained unmodified by the UK regulator at the level of 0,5%.

 

The first support occurs at 1.4400 and at 1.4320 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4480 and at 1.4560 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a horizontal motion and the Kijun-sen forms a descending movement creating a "Golden Cross". The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

 

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#60
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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: May 16, 2016

 

The Service Sector activity in Japan has reduced more than expected last month. Tertiary Industry Index seasonally corrected displayed -0,7% contrary with -0,1% in the recent month. The experts anticipated a decrease to -0,2%.

 

The first support occurs at 108.20 and at 107.40 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 109.00 and at 109.80 subsequently.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen displays an ascending movement.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is consolidating.

 

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