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Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart


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360 replies to this topic

#21
Andrea ForexMart

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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: March 29, 2016

 

Uncertainty on the Brexit was offset by the US’ less than impressive consumer spending, prompting the Euro’s upturn earlier today.

 

However, the dollar regained its footing as buyers wait for Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s announcement that will hopefully clear up if Fed will move to increase the benchmark rate.

 

The pair hit a daily high of 1.1219, but pulled back to 1.1200, eliciting a bearish sentiment from investors.

 

The first support was at 1.1175 and 1.1119, subsequently, while the first resistance was at 1.1243 and 1.1299 subsequently.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral position. The price is falling.


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#22
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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: March 30, 2016

 

The extensive demand for the dollar reinforced the pound/dollar pair. The Manufacturing PMI will be issued on Friday and so we propose to focus on it as well as we wait for Bank of England Chairman Mark Carney's performance on Thursday.

 

The price's first support occurs at 1.4320 and at 1.4240 subsequently. Meanwhile, the first resistance resides at 1.4400 and at 1.4480 subsequently.

 

A non-confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display an ascending movement  creating a "Golden Cross". The ascending motion will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is increasing.

 

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#23
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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: March 31, 2016

 

The Japanese Yen expanded in today’s early trading as Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen’s dovish remarks on Tuesday prompted investors to sell their greenbacks. The currency pair hit a daily low of 112.25.

 

Yellen’s speech on Tuesday to the Economic Club of New York said that caution must be exercised in hiking interest rates, lessening the possibility of a rate increase during Fed’s upcoming meeting in April. However, Yellen is optimistic on the growth of the US economy.

 

The dollar experienced a rally in the past weeks due to other Fed officials’ hawkish statements that implied they are eyeing to raise the numbers.

 

The speculation of a rate increase is now expected in Fed’s next meeting in June.

 

Yellen’s announcement put the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in a more difficult position, which is battling stagnant deflation amidst strong currency. BOJ’s negative interest rates set in January did very little to help the situation.

 

Eyes are now on BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to see what monetary tools he will use to ease the problem. The BOJ may be forced to further lower the interest rates during its policy meeting in April.

 

The first support was at 111.82 and 111.26 subsequently. The first resistance was at 112.62 and 113.19 subsequently.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is falling.

 

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#24
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Technical Analysis for USD/CHF: April 1, 2016

 

After Janet Yellen's speech which supported a discreet strategy towards the interest rates raising, the dollar fell in opposition to almost all currencies. Her comments were presumed by the investors as rhetoric which cause the stock market to grow.

 

The price's first support occurs at 0.9580 and at 0.9500 subsequently. While it's first resistance resides at 0.9660 and at 0.9750 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a downward movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. The descending motion will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

 

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#25
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Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 1, 2016

 

The New Zealand dollar is maintaining a bullish trend against the US dollar despite lack of economic data released in recent days. It appears that the kiwi is only propped up by the dollar’s sell-off and not because of strong economic performance.

 

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) slashed interest rates in early March. Talks of another rate cut is rife as the RBNZ’s  policy meeting in April comes nearer.

 

The bird landed at a daily low of 0.6890 in earlier session but has since bounced back to its days-long attempt of beating the 0.69 level and possibly hover pips below 0.70.

 

Employment data from the US is scheduled to be released later this session.

 

The first support is at 0.6853 and 0.6818 subsequently, while the first resistance is at 0.6939 and 0.6973 subsequently.

 

The MACD indicator is at a positive level. The price is declining.

 

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#26
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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 5, 2016

 

In the midst of the Construction Sector increase, the Gross Domestic Product of the UK in Q4 was re-assessed upwards. The business activity index occurs at 54.2 contrary to the reported 54.0 which is more than expected. The increase of the pair was finite due to fears about Brexit and the market could not disregard the probable demand on the oil market. The activity of the GBP/USD pair was merely influenced by the oil price.

 

The first support of price occurs at 1.4240 and at 1.4160 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.4320 and at 1.4400 subsequently.

 

The price is along the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms a descending movement and the Kijun-sen displays a horizontal motion creating a "Dead Cross".

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral location. The price is revising.


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#27
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Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: April 6, 2016

 

After months of rally,  the Australian dollar finally experienced a setback as the week started with disappointing data and a slowly recovering US dollar.

 

Retail sales for the month of February was unchanged from the previous month’s 0.3 percent, a big letdown from the forecasted 0.1 percent increase.  

 

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, retail sales of household goods and department stores posted the highest increases with 0.4 percent, while the food sector decreased by 0.2 percent.

 

During Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold onto its 2.00 percent interest rate, sending the AUD to the bears. RBA governor said in a statement that the “economy is continuing to rebalance following the mining investment boom.”

 

Contrary to an expected verbal intervention to weaken the AUD, Stevens did not jawbone the currency which has risen steadily since the start of the year, even sounding dovish toward its appreciating value.

 

Inflation hit a seven month low of 1.7 percent while the RBA’s target range is from 2 to 3 percent. Trade deficit rose to A$3.410 billion in February from January’s A$3.156 billion. It was projected to shrink to A$2.600 billion.

 

After days of losses, the USD picked up over the weekend due to a positive nonfarm payroll that further strengthened the labor market.

 

The pair touched 0.7536 today, recording a five-day low. Heads are now turned to Fed’s meeting later today.

 

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#28
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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 7, 2016

 

Initially, the main drivers for the pound/dollar pair firstly, is an escape from risks, second is decline in oil prices and lastly is the poor Service PMI in the country. In March the index increase to 53.7 from 52.7 when the market was expecting an increase to 54,0. Apparently, the descending movement was also in the Bonds Market which made the 10-year UK government bonds yield to diminish. The Sterling grew by the end of the trades.

 

The first support occurs at 1.4080 and at 1.4000 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.4160 and at 1.4240 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a descending movement. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is rectifying.


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#29
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Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 7, 2016

 

The New Zealand dollar is gaining against the greenbacks after the Federal Reserve indicated that an interest rate increase is highly unlikely this month. The kiwi dollar posted gains hours before the release of Fed’s minutes of its last meeting.

 

The minutes was released today and showed that the majority of the board members agree that rate hikes should be approached with caution, sending the US dollar to bearish territory after a slight recovery in earlier sessions.

 

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) price index released on Wednesday was also a good news for the bird especially for New Zealand’s main export, whole milk powder, whose prices rose by 1.5 percent. Cheddar prices also moved up by 10.5 percent. The entire GDT index climbed by 2.1 percent after last reading’s 2.9 percent fall.

 

China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, will release trade data and its Q1 GDP next week. This will inject further volatility into the kiwi dollar.

 

The pair is now trading at a range of 58 pips. The first support is at 0.6799 and 0.6765 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.6868 and 0.6902, subsequently.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral position. The price is rising.

 

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#30
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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 11, 2016

 

The UK investors were perturbed by the poor macroeconomic data. Because of the seasonal correction which came at 1.1%, The Manufacturing Production for February decreased wherein it was way farther than the reported 0.2%. Moreover, from 12.16 billion pounds in January to 11.96 billion pounds in February, the Britain Trade Balance Deficit lessened.

 

The first support occurs at 1.4080 and at 1.4000 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.4160 and at 1.4240 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal motion. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is retrieving.

 

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#31
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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: April 11, 2016

 

The Euro recorded a yearly high of 1.1453 on Sunday after the European Central Bank (ECB) revealed that the board is leaning to another rate cut. The pair is now trading within a range of 1.1395 and 1.1427.

 

The exchange rate is hovering just above 1.14 level at 1.1411.

 

The central bank has slashed interest rates to -0.4 percent in early March as it struggles with a negative inflation rate of -0.1 percent, a far cry from the bank’s target of almost 2 percent.

 

During his speech on Thursday, ECB president Mario Draghi reiterated that they are willing to do “whatever is needed” to lift inflation which is not expected to hit the target until 2018. The central bank will hold a policy meeting on April 21.

 

Meanwhile, the USD is still weak after Fed implied that a rate increase is unlikely in the upcoming policy meeting. Fed Dallas’ president Robert Kaplan will participate in a question-and-answer session later today and we are waiting for hints of the bank rate’s possible future.

 

This week is packed with many entities publishing economic reports. US retail sales will be revealed on Wednesday and the consumer price index of the US and Eurozone will be published on Thursday.

 

Germany, France, and Spain will also release data after data later this week.

 

The first support is at 1.1373 and 1.1316 subsequently, while the first resistance is at 1.1444 and 1.1501 subsequently.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is rising.


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#32
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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: April 12, 2016

 

The Aussie dollar rallied from a slight dip during earlier session and is now at 0.7617 against the US dollar. The improvement was due to the National Australia Bank’s solid business confidence report.

 

NAB revealed that the business confidence index grew to +6 in March from February's +3.  According to survey results of more than 400 companies, business conditions increased to +12, the country’s best since 2008.

 

The services industry was the strongest, followed by manufacturing, construction, and transport. The mining sector was still the weakest.

 

Meanwhile, the USD still failed to recover after Fed’s decision to take a more cautious approach in tightening monetary policy.

 

AUD is now testing 0.77 levels. The upcoming release of Australia’s unemployment rate this week and China’s dataflow is expected to sway investor sentiment next.

 

The first support is at 0.7562 and 0.7524 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7666 and 0.7704 subsequently.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative position. The price is rising.

 

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#33
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Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 12, 2016

 

The NZD/USD extended gains to an intraday high of 0.6885 assisted by a soft USD and a pickup in global commodity prices.

 

The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) showed that the number of houses sold in March saw an 8.2 percent year-on-year increase, breaking the record set in March 2007. Property prices also grew by 4.2 percent year-on-year.

 

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has been keeping a watchful eye on the real estate market amidst worries that lenders will be in trouble once the gains subside.

 

Apart from this, the bird is on a quiet flight until the release of the Food Price Index later today which will give a hint on the inflation rate.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral position. The price is increasing.

 

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#34
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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: April 13, 2016

 

The Euro was clipped during Wednesday’s session after the International Monetary Fund commented, for the first time, about the enormous damage of the United Kingdom’s possible exit from the European Union.

 

Trading at a narrow range of 1.1342 to 1.1393, the Euro continues to drop against a slightly stronger USD which was lifted by higher crude oil prices. The US will release its retail sales and crude oil data later today.

 

The first support is at 1.1306 and 1.1249 subsequently. The first resistance is at 1.1426 and 1.1483 subsequently.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral position and the price is decreasing.

 

 


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#35
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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: April 14, 2016

 

There were two reasons which caused the yen to put under pressure. Firstly, it was because it cannot withstand the development of Nikkei and the last thing is, its fall is an aftermath of the statement of Japanese Ministry which regards to the probable action launching that is intended to restrict the inflation of the national currency.

 

The first support occurs at 109.00 and at 108.20 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 109.80 and at 110.60 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen creates an ascending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal motion. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is retrieving.

 

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#36
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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: April 14, 2016

 

Upbeat labor data failed to lift the AUD above 76 cents against the USD. The Australian dollar opened at 0.7654 and hit a day low of 0.7619 in later session.

 

The first support is at 0.7602 and 0.7563 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7685 and 0.7724 subsequently.

 

The dip comes after the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed positive employment figures, most of it surpassing projections. The unemployment rate in March was at 5.7 percent, 0.1 percent lower than February’s 5.8 percent. Analysts expected it to increase to 5.9 percent in March.

 

This is the lowest unemployment rate since September 2013. According to employment minister Michaelia Cash, the number of working people increased 2.2 percent, while the unemployed fell by 4.6 percent in the past 12 months. Furthermore, 26,100 jobs were also added, topping an estimated 20,000 additional jobs.

 

The report also showed that people scored more part-time jobs as it increased by 34,900, a 10-month high, while full-time jobs dwindled by 8,800. Participation rate rose by 0.9 percent.

 

However, investor sentiment was unfazed as more sold their AUD for a slowly recovering greenback despite US retail sales in the red. The US inflation report will be published later today.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative position. The price is decreasing.

 

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#37
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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 15, 2016

 

The repercussions of three days imposing increase of the pound/dollar was it has initiated rectification. The Bank of England has announced its minutes and the interest rate decision wherein the rate was kept at the same level. The unpredictability of the Brexit caused the currency to remain under pressure.

 

The first support occurs at 1.4080 and at 1.4000 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.4160 and at 1.4240 subsequently.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen forms an ascending movement which creates a "Dead Cross".

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral location. The price is retrieving.

 

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#38
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Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 18, 2016

 

The bird reached a high of 0.6939 in early trading after the Statistics New Zealand released the consumer price index (CPI) for the first quarter of the year on Sunday.

 

The CPI was on the upside at an increase of 0.2 percent as it surpassed analysts’ forecast of 0.1 percent, recovering from 0.5 percent fall in the last quarter of 2015. The index grew by 0.4 percent from the same period last year, which only rose by 0.1 percent.

 

Cigarettes and tobacco had the biggest contribution as prices surged by 9.4 percent, while oil prices dropped by 7.7 percent. The upbeat CPI will most likely relieve some pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to not rush the next rate cut in April.

 

Although the kiwi dollar has recovered its losses during the weekend, its gains against the USD are still inconsistent as we saw it hit an intraday low of 0.6883. The pair is now trading at a wide range of 0.6849 to 0.6940.

 

The first support is at 0.6881 and 0.6847 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.6968 and 0.7003. The MACD indicator is in a neutral position. The price is rising.

 

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#39
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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 20, 2016

 

The probability of a rate hike was lessened by the Bank of England which may cause the pound to stay unstable. The English regulator dwelt the risks for the country economy when Brexit takes place amidst decision-making regarding the interest rates last week. Mark Carney stated on Tuesday that the effect of Brexit would not be sustainable and it would cause a financing of the payment balance more pricey.

 

The first support occurs at 1.4320 and at 1.4240 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4400 and at 1.4480 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays an ascending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a  horizontal motion creating a "Golden Cross". The ascending movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is growing.

 

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#40
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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: April 20, 2016

 

Despite a more positive than expected ZEW Economic Sentiment in the Eurozone, the Euro still failed to break through the 1.14 levels although gaining against the dollar.

 

Economic sentiment, which measures investors’ outlook for the economy, reached 21.5 in April from last month’s 10.6. Analysts predicted only 8.8 this month. The economic sentiment in Germany was released yesterday as well, surging to 11.2 from last month’s 4.3, eclipsing forecast of 8.0.

 

The Euro is still trading within a narrow range of 1.1352 to 1.1375 and is 30 pips shy of reaching 1.14. The support is located at 1.1335 and 1.1235 subsequently, and the resistance is at 1.1420 and 1.1500 subsequently.

 

European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi will announce the future of interest rates on Thursday, but it is expected that the bank will retain the current 0.25.

 

On the other hand, the USD index fell due to housing data revealed to be below projections, hinting a downtrend in the real estate and construction sectors. Building permits issued was down to 1.086 million from 1.177 million, a 7.7 percent fall from the previous month. The number of houses that started construction also slumped to 1.089 million to 1.194 million yoy.

 

As of time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1368. The MACD indicator is at negative location and the price is rising.

 

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