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Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart


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#1
Andrea ForexMart

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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: February 3

 

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of the Japanese industrial sector reached 52.3 in opposition to the reported 52.4. The Investor's Business Daily (IBD) TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) Economic Optimism is at the reported median 47,8 published by the US and the New York ISM is at 718,9 in opposition to the preceding 716,6.

 

The first support occurs at 120.40 and at 119.20 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 121.30 and at 122.20 subsequently.

 

A sturdy and confirmed buy signal was found. The price is on top of the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen creates a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen forms an upward motion. The ascending movement will be until the price is on top of the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is recovering.

 

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#2
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Fundamental Analysis: Ferbruary 4

 

For January, the level of the US PMI Composite from IMS is at 53.5 whereas the previous value was 55.3 and the report was at 55.1 which was published by the United States. Moreover, the ADP Employment Change for January is at 205,000 whereas the preceding value was 267,000 and the report was 195,000 which was issued by the USA.

 

In 2015, the unemployment rate of the Eurozone reduced by 0.8% to the level of 10.4%. The status apparently shows the ECB soft monetary policy. The low cost euro rate and liquidity added a support to the development of the real economy. The Euro area Retail Sales displayed 1,4% y/y and 0,3% m/m in opposition to the reported 1,5% y/y and 0,3% m/m. The EUR/USD pair signified a sturdy growth by the end of the trades.

 

Also in 2015, the Gross Domestic Product of the UK increased by 2.17% in contrast to the growth of 2.85% in 2014. Simultaneously, the growth rate of the United States was 2.38% and 2.42% for the same period. The slowdown of the UK economy is more substantial compared in the USA which has been a negative factor for the currency. The GBP/USD pair strengthened.

 

A somewhat unstable dynamics was formed by the dollar. The currency modulated in opposition to the yen which is still yearned even though a new wave of risk aversion arises. This week, the stock indices reduced which outstandingly losing ground as an aftermath of the descending of oil prices after the astonishing previous growth. In the midst of all these, buyers were interested in the Japanese yen.

 

A non-manufacturing PMI has been issued. The index of EU displayed a 53.6 concurrently with the report. The similar index signified 53.2 in the USA, the report was 53.7. The Non-Manufacturing PMI of the UK occurred at 55.6 in opposition to the reported 55.3

 

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#3
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Technical Analysis for USD/CHF: February 5

 

Mr. Thomas Jordan, head of the Switzerland National Bank restated that the franc was overbought and the Central Bank was all set to interpose if needed. Nevertheless, Mr. Jordan refused to tell if the bank had an intervention recently. Switzerland issued the Consumer Climate index Q1 forecast. The index is at -14.0 and the previous value was -18.0.

 

The first support occurs at 0.9850 and at 0.9750 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 0.9960 and at 1.0100 subsequently.

 

A sturdy and confirmed sell signal was found. The price is below the Ichimooku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen formed a descending motion creating a "Dead Cross". The descending motion will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative area. The price is declining.

 

 
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#4
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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: February 18

 

The economic status of US signified critical signals again. The Housing Market Index fell from 60 to 58 and the Empire State Manufacturing Index displayed -16.64 against the reported -10.00, opposed to the expectations of traders. The Building Permits report for January was issued. The report was 1.204M while the index showed 1.202M. The Producer Price Index displayed 0,1% in opposition to the report of -0,2%.

 

The first support occurs at 113.80 and at 113.00 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 114.60 and at 115.40 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and sturdy sell signal was found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen create a horizontal movement showing a "Golden Cross". The descending motion will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is found in an impartial location. The price is declining.

 

 

 

 


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#5
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Technical Analysis for USD/CHF: February 19

 

An aftermath of the Fed's soft comments and the positive report of the trade balance in Switzerland is the dollar being under pressure.

 

The pair, after being low for four days was supported as the franc increased since the Switzerland's trade surplus turned to be noticeable as it grew higher contrary to the forecast. For January, the trade surplus reached 3.51 billion. The pair became stronger by the end of the trades.

 

The first support occurs at 0.9859, the next is at 0.9750 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 0.9960 and at 1.0100 subsequently.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays an ascending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is increasing.  

 
 

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#6
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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: February 23

 

 

The main topic yesterday was the referendum of the British to stick within the European Union or to depart from it which will be held on June 23, 2016. Discrepancies of opinions in British society become more noticeable as the topic goes on and on.

 

 

 

The first support is at 1.4080 and at 1.4000 subsequently. The first resistance is at 1.4240 and at 1.4320 subsequently.

 

 

 

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal was found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen create descending movement. The descending motion will remain until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

 

 


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#7
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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: February 25

 

In spite of the concerns that Brexit may affect the Eurozone, the euro still enfeebled this week. The ECB representative Mr. Jens Weidmann stated that prolonged uncertainty about the topic might have an impact to the global economy. Moreover, disregarding the consequences of soft monetary policy might cause an issue. He also added that the economic point of view was not as bad as it seemed. Furthermore, a poor growth was an issue for the monetary policy and the slow Eurozone regains should be proceeded this year and the next year.

 

The first support occurs at 1.0925 and at 1.0800 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.1050 and at 1.1150 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and sturdy sell signal was found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen creates a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal motion. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is retrieving.

 
 
 

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#8
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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: February 29

 

Since the inflation growth of Japan decelerated in January and became known, the Japanese yen decreased in opposition with the dollar. The issues of the regulator is apparently the cause of the slow-moving inflation as it could not regain the inflation to the target level of 2%. In addition, the positive report of USA GBP which is 1,0% contrary to the reported 0,4% has become the growth driver.

 

 

The first support occurs at 112.20 and at 111.40. The first resistance lies at 113.00 and at 113.80 subsequently.

 

 

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen creates an ascending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement displaying a "Golden Cross". The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

 

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is increasing.

 


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#9
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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: March 2

 

 

The United Kingdom has publicized the manufacturing PMI for February which is 50,8 while the report was 52.3. The Mortgage Approvals surpassed the reports as it gained 74,587 contrary to the 71,335 recent report which is a quite positive statistics from the UK. In the meanwhile, the Consumer Credit for January reached  £ 1.564 billion contrary to the expected 1,300 billion.

 

 

The first support occurs at 1.3920 and at 1.3840 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.4000 and at 1.4080 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal may be found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display a horizontal movement. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is retrieving.

 


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#10
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Technical Analysis for USD/CHF: March 4

 

The Swiss franc became stronger in opposition to the dollar. The Fed's Beige Book signified that the economic activity proceeded to broaden in most area like growth rates remarkably differ from poor to sturdy and the labor market conditions continue to get better wherein the dollar leveled its attainment.

 

The first support occurs at 0.9850 and at 0.9750 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 0.9960 and at 1.0100 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen creates a horizontal movement forming a "Dead Cross". The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral location. The price is falling.

 
 

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#11
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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: March 8

 

In the midst of the controversial US labor market report, the USD/JPY pair stayed in the range in spite the fact that the market has increased volatility. The governor of BOJ stated that the strong yen was not the primary cause of the core inflation infirmity. In addition to this, the negative interest rates were not planned to affect the currency market according to the governor.

 

The first support occurs at 113.00 and at 112.20 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 113.80 and at 114.60 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal movement displaying a "Dead Cross". The ascending movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral location. The price is solidifying.


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#12
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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: March 10

 

For the first time in three months, the Industrial Production for February expanded based on the National Statistics Office. In December, the index showed improvement by 0.3% on a monthly basis after a decrease by 1.1%. The growth was also the most remarkable in in five months aside from the first in three months. Nevertheless, an increase rate of 0.4% is what the economists hoped for. And for the moment, the Manufacturing Production raised by 0.7% while the report was 0.2%.

 

The first support occurs at 1.4160 and at 1.4080 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.4240 and at 1.4320 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form an ascending movement. The upward movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The indicator is declining.

 

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#13
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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: March 14

 

In conformity of the UK National Statistics Office, the country's trade shortage which is seasonally rectified, tapered in December from £10,45 billion to £10.29 billion. The previous month's data was re-evaluated up to £9.92 billion. In January, the trade shortage reached £10,3 billion according to economists forecast.

 

The first support is at 1.4320 and at 1.4240 subsequently. The first resistance is at 1.4400 and at 1.4480 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form an upward movement. The ascending movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The indicator is increasing.

 

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#14
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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: March 16

 

As the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged, the yen increase as expected. The bank calculates the economic effect of its January decision to reduce the rate to negative values. Though this decision does not cause the yen to modulate, however some traders still think that the simplification measures of the Bank of Japan missed out its productiveness. Now, the traders' center of attraction goes out to the Federal Reserve's meeting.

 

The first support occurs at 113.00 and at 112.20 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 113.80 and at 114.60 subsequently.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal movement displaying a "Dead Cross". The MACD indicator is in a neutral location. The price is falling.

 

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#15
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Technical Analysis for USD/CHF: March 18

 

The Fed's decision to keep the monetary policy unchanged cause the dollar to descend aggressively in opposition to the Swiss franc. As we have anticipated, the regulator was certain to left the policy unchanged as the National Bank of Switzerland hold its meeting on Thursday.

 

The first support occurs at 0.9660 and at 0.9580 subsequently. The first resistance  resides at 0.9750 and at 0.9850 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms a descending movement and the Kijun-sen displays a horizontal movement. The downward movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.


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#16
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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: March 22

 

As the United States and Japan government bonds yields divergence decreased to some extent, the debt market dynamics manifested an averaged demand for the Japanese currency. This also cause to lessen the appeal of the US assets. The USD/JPY pair grew a bit by the end of the trades.

 

The first support occurs at 111.40 and at 110.60 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 112.20 and at 113.00 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms an ascending motion and the Kijun-sen displays a horizontal motion. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is retrieving.


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#17
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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: March 23, 2016

 

Sterling continued its low trajectory on Wednesday amidst negative economic data, terrorism attacks in Europe, and rising worry surrounding the Brexit.

 

The Bank of England announced a stagnant 0.3 percent inflation rate, missing the projected 0.4 percent rise. The news was paired with a looming interest rate cut, which has been standing at 0.5 percent since 2009. The nearest rate increase is in another three years, while the US is expecting at least two rate hikes this year, pushing the dollar upward.

 

UK’s controversial 2016 budget was also bad news for the ailing pound. Many were disappointed with budget cuts, with Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Duncan Smith resigning on Friday over lower disability benefits.

 

The pound fell further from its 1.4251 after the inflation announcement.

 

The first support occurred at 1.4094 and 1.4024 subsequently. The first resistance was at 1.4304 and 1.4375 subsequently.

 

The MACD indicator is at positive location. The price is falling.

 

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#18
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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: March 28

 

The efficacy of the stimulus measures held by the European Central Bank is drawing near its boundary as stated by the president of the Netherlands Bank, Klaas Knot. He thinks that the ECB monetary policy instruments have been worn out.

 

The first support occurs at 1.1150 and at 1.1050 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.1260 and at 1.1350 subsequently.

 

The price is along the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a descending motion creating a "Dead Cross".

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is correcting.

 

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#19
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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: March 28, 2016

 

The British pound slightly recovered from last week’s trading as it hit a daily high at 1.4180, taking advantage of the dollar’s respite. However, the pound’s strength is expected to be short-lived as the uncertainty of the Brexit looms over the market.

 

A bearish outlook on the pound remains leading to the EU referendum in June. On the other end, a stronger dollar is anticipated in the following days as investors remain hopeful for a rate hike in the near future based on  Fed officials’ vague remarks.

 

The first support occurred at 1.4098 and 1.4028 subsequently. The first resistance was at 1.4149 and 1.4220 subsequently.

 

The MACD indicator is at a negative location. The price is falling.

 

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#20
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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: March 29, 2016

 

The Australian dollar edged up in today’s trading after mixed US data weighed down the dollar.

 

The US’ core PCE in February posted a dismal growth of 0.1 percent, missing the 0.2 percent forecast. The core PCE price index also performed below expectations as it rose annually by 1.7 percent. Meanwhile, consumer spending was went up by 0.1 percent, meeting government forecasts.

 

The US economy experienced a 1.4 percent growth in Q4, topping a 1.0 percent forecast, which carried the dollar slightly.

 

The Aussie dollar, which has risen by about 3.7 percent this year, is expected to continue a slow climb as talks of the currency’s overvaluation is still in the air. Investors are still waiting if the RBA will cut interest rates to keep it from further ascent.

 

A speech by Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen later today may sway investors to buy back the dollars.

 

The pair is now facing a ceiling at 0.7572 and can be seen testing 0.76.

 

The first support was at 0.7519 and 0.7481 subsequently. The first resistance was 0.7585 and 0.7623 subsequently.

 

The MACD indicator is at a negative location. The price is falling.

 

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